Harmonic Patterns
BITCOIN TRADERS IF YOU R HOPING FOR 150 it is NOT coming in 2025As so many are holding on HOPE that DJT is going to make BITCOIN reserve this year I can state this BASED on the MATH and Wave structure Most will be HOLDING THE BAG . My cycles are bearish until oct 2026 the avg decline is over 75% I have told EVERYONE to exit from the first peak at 108100 and that the pullback was wave 4 that wave 5 should peak from 109100 to 116 focus on 113 Well we saw 109,400 And There is major Top forming first decline this spring is down to 74,000 and then just a sharp rally at best a 50% of the first drop ! best of trades WAVETIMER
Europe markets are in the last few days and hours of a TOP MAJORAs the chart posted Has not been altered at all over the last 4 years in the Elliot Wave or the trendlines We are now running up to if lucky to touch the line as so many markets world wide . We are going to see a MAJOR SHIFT in the world rather soon . from 1/19 to 1/25 and then in march 10th to the 20th focus on MARCH 13TH see spirals for SPY and DIA 11/29 to 12/5 . Best of trades WAVETIMER
Gold us on correction if closed below 2747I entered a sell position at 2758 yesterday and its HIT TP.
XAUUSD prices are rising sharply,This situation is creating strong buying pressure on gold. If the price stays above the key level of $2748-50 support area the next target could be $2790 or even record highs.
what scanarios do we have?
As alll traders are waiting for the job less claims to pump gold towards 2780 atleast. However, the data was although negative but market didn't react as accordingly to rise.
If any H4 candle close above 2747-2750 , next gold will be on 2780 mark.
On the other hand we are still have approach that market must have to respect the previous support 2725-28 which didn't retest yet.
Bitcoin's Distribution Phase: Navigating the Peak of the CycleThe Wyckoff Method and Bitcoin's Distribution Phase
The Wyckoff Method identifies four distinct phases in a market cycle: Accumulation, Markup, Distribution, and Markdown. The Distribution phase is the antithesis of Accumulation. While smart money was quietly accumulating Bitcoin during the Accumulation phase, they are now discreetly selling their holdings during Distribution. This is not a sudden sell-off, but rather a gradual process of offloading assets to less informed market participants who are still caught up in the bullish sentiment carried over from the Markup phase.
Bitcoin's Distribution Phase: A History of Short-Lived Peaks
Interestingly, Bitcoin's first three major cycles exhibited a peculiar characteristic: the Distribution phase was either extremely brief or seemingly absent, merging almost seamlessly with the beginning of the Markdown phase. This could be attributed to the relative immaturity of the market and the rapid, parabolic nature of the price increases during those early cycles. The sharp peaks visible on historical charts suggest that smart money had limited time to distribute their holdings before the inevitable price correction occurred. This can be the result of smart money being in loss, due to not securing the price highs.
However, the most recent cycle (ending in late 2021) witnessed a notable departure from this pattern. We observed a more prolonged Distribution phase, lasting several months.
The Internal Mechanism: Shifting Risk-Reward Dynamics
The Distribution phase is driven by a fundamental shift in the risk-reward equation. Several key factors contribute to this shift:
Increasing Volatility: As the price reaches its peak, volatility begins to increase significantly. Daily and weekly price swings become more pronounced, introducing greater risk for investors.
Diminishing Returns: While volatility surges, returns start to diminish. The impressive daily, weekly, and monthly gains that characterized the Markup phase begin to shrink, making Bitcoin less attractive to new investors.
Re-evaluation by Informed Investors: Savvy investors, often referred to as "smart money," who accumulated Bitcoin at lower prices, begin to reassess their positions. They recognize the increasing risk and diminishing returns, prompting them to gradually sell their holdings. This selling pressure, while initially subtle, starts to counterbalance the buying pressure from less informed investors.
Loss of Momentum: The combination of higher risk and lower returns gradually erodes the bullish momentum that propelled the Markup phase. New investors become hesitant to enter the market at such elevated prices, while existing holders, particularly those who entered earlier in the cycle, consider taking profits.
The Psychology of the Distribution Phase
The Distribution phase is not just about price movements; it's also about a shift in market psychology. The euphoria and optimism of the Markup phase gradually give way to uncertainty and apprehension.
Top Callers Emerge: Market analysts and commentators, who were previously bullish, may start to issue warnings about a potential top. These "top callers" can influence market sentiment and contribute to the selling pressure.
Cognitive Dissonance: Less informed investors, who may have bought near the peak, face cognitive dissonance. They are torn between holding onto their investments in the hope of further gains and cutting their losses in the face of increasing volatility.
Profit-Taking vs. HODLing: The "HODL" mentality, which encourages long-term holding, starts to be tested. Some holders will inevitably succumb to the temptation of taking profits, further contributing to the selling pressure.
Implications and Considerations
Identifying the Top: Recognizing the Distribution phase is crucial for identifying the market top. However, this is notoriously difficult in real-time, as the price action can be highly volatile and misleading.
The Transition to Markdown: The Distribution phase eventually gives way to the Markdown phase, characterized by a sustained decline in price. The speed and severity of this decline can vary depending on the length and intensity of the preceding Distribution phase.
POL - Bullish Pressure Soon!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈POL has been overall bearish trading within the falling channel marked in blue.
Currently, it is approaching the lower bound of the channel.
Moreover, the purple zone is a strong structure and demand.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of support and lower trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #POL approaches the blue circle, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
In parallel, for the bulls to take over long-term, a break above the upper blue trendline is needed.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar 15. Chart AnalysisThe price has recently broken below a strong support level and is now trading below it. This bearish breakout suggests further downside potential.
Key Observations:
Strong Support Break: The price has decisively broken below a well-defined support level. This break often signals a shift in momentum and can lead to further price declines.
Liquidity Sweep: A recent liquidity sweep occurred at the support level. This indicates a large order was filled at that level, potentially adding to the selling pressure.
Trade Setup:
Entry: Short sell at the market price near the current level.
Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss order above the recent swing high, above the broken support level, or at a level that aligns with your risk tolerance.
Take-Profit: Set your tak profit at next Order Block
BITCOIN We are nowhere near the Top!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1M time-frame is as straightforward as it can get. The message is clear: We are nowhere near the Top yet.
The LMACD flashes its Cycle Top signal when it tests the Lower Highs trend-line. If this happens to be above the Pi Cycle's Top (red trend-line), then we have a complete Sell Signal for the Cycle. This is expected to take place towards the end of this year.
Similarly, the bottom takes place below the Pi Cycle's Bottom (green trend-line) and is confirmed by a LMACD Bullish Cross. Those indicators are the Blueprint to BTC's Cycles.
Do you agree with this? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Gold on Path to 2835-2840 -Bullish Still=In my previous prediction, I indicated that gold was targeting 2760. Now that we have the dollars in our accounts,
=Gold will now retrace to 2720-2725.
=Should the 2620-2625 resistance be broken, then the yellow metal will touch 2660-2675, where it will form the cypher harmonic pattern.
=Look out for the month-end of January as gold will be aiming for 2840 with a massive spike
We are still bullish, onwards to 2840
All the best
NVIDIA This is the final call for $240.NVIDIA corporation (NVDA) has been trading within a Channel Up for the past 2 years and just last Monday it made contact with its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line). As long as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) remains intact, the bullish trend will be maintained.
On top of that, the price action has just completed a pattern, which in the last two times we saw it (Q3 2024 and Q4 2023), it initiated a rally. With the Channel's Bullish Legs being at least of a +86.50% increase, we expect NVIDIA to target at least $240 by May.
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Gold on Path to 2835-2840-Bullish Still=In my previous prediction, I indicated that gold was targeting 2760. Now that we have the dollars in our accounts,
=Gold will now retrace to 2620-2625 on it's way to 2840 by the close of January.
=Should the 2620-2625 resistance be broken, then the yellow metal will touch 2660-2675, where it will form the cypher harmonic pattern.
=Look out for the month-end of January as gold will be aiming for 2840 with a massive spike
We are still bullish, onwards to 2840
All the best
Aave (AAVE): Possible Fall Coming / Rejection From ResistanceAAVE coin has made another re-test to the upper resistance zone where sellers showed dominance.
We are now seeing that pressure is still on and it seems like we are going to go for the zone near the first target!
Usually EMAs would be our concern as well but we see that they do not have any significant affect currently.
Swallow Team
Solana (SOL): Possible Downward Correction Coming / CME FillSolana has done a proper bounce thanks to a few memcoins that have pushed the Solana blockchain in volume, which again resulted in that huge CME gap on the coin.
We are looking for the CME gap to be filled fully where most of it has been filled, + upon filling it, we will re-test the broken zone (which, upon re-testing successfully, will become a strong support zone).
So $220 is our target for now here!
Swallow Team