Will the gold price head for 3250 today?Will the gold price head for 3250 today?
Latest gold market dynamics and analysis (as of June 27, 2025)
Analysis of core influencing factors
(1) Geopolitical risks: Risk aversion has cooled but the heat has not subsided
Recently, the conflict between Israel and Iran has come to a temporary end. Trump said both sides were "exhausted" and the market's risk aversion demand has declined.
But potential risks still exist, such as the attack on Iran's nuclear facilities and the friction in Red Sea shipping. The safe-haven attribute of gold is still in a "wait and see" state.
2) Fed policy differences: interest rate cut expectations fluctuate
There are obvious differences between hawks and doves within the Fed. Some members are worried about inflation stickiness, while others support early interest rate cuts.
The US dollar index fluctuates in the range of 97-99, and gold shows the linkage characteristics of "dollar rises and falls, and dollar falls and rises".
The US PCE data released tonight is the key. If inflation is lower than expected, it may strengthen the expectation of interest rate cuts and boost gold prices; otherwise, it may suppress gold prices.
Technical support and resistance:
Short-term: $3,280, $3,250
Key resistance: $3,300-3,350-3,380, $3,400
Market sentiment: Gold ETF positions decreased (reduced by 2.29 tons on June 25), indicating that some funds have taken profits, but the medium- and long-term bullish logic has not changed.
4. Investment strategy recommendations
Short-term: Range shock
1: As long as the gold price is below $3,300, it is a short-selling idea, short at high prices, stop loss 3300-3305.
2: The key price of the support rebound below: 3280-3250--3165.
You can try to go long with a light position at the above price.
Be sure to set a stop loss when going long.
