SatochiTrader Expecting a huge BTC CRASH AFTER This..BTC Market Update by SatochiTrader
EVERY CRASH DID START WITH A FALSE INCREASE TREND.
Depending on the market sentiment and price action, BTC is currently showing strength with a positive trend. However, based on deeper data and insights held by myself and a small group of early-cycle followers, this current movement may be a deceptive signal — potentially foreshadowing a major crash.
This is not trading advice. Those who are confident in the long position should continue, and those on the other side should stay prepared as well.
We have previously explained that the current cycle appears to have ended. Since 2013, BTC has consistently respected its macro cycle targets. The end of such a cycle typically leads to significant corrections.
A cycle ending implies not just a retracement, but the potential for a major crash. Hedge funds and real BTC whales understand the underlying indicators and risks at play. Our expectation remains clear: BTC may soon fall below the 100K level, with $85K identified as a critical support and target zone.
Stay sharp. Stay informed. The market may look bullish — until it isn't.
The best way to follow BTC is not the news.. but the cycle overview.
This update is an education update, which means the high expectations of the upcoming correction for BTC.
Compared to last quarter, miners are now less severely underpaid, though profitability remains low
Harmonic Patterns
The Direction After Sideways Fluctuation at 3330Trump's announcement of an Israel-Iran ceasefire dented safe-haven sentiment, curbing safe-haven buying 🛑. Gold opened with a sharp plunge, then extended losses as Powell later stated that more time is needed before considering rate cuts—dovish expectations eased, sending gold further lower ⬇️. The price briefly fell below the 3,300 level, nearing 3,295 at its lowest, but failed to breach the 3,290-3,300 support zone 📊. As I indicated yesterday, traders could test rebound strength near support; once news impacts faded, gold rebounded to close at 3,323 🔄.
Currently trading sideways around 3,330, gold faces resistance at 3,350 while downside support remains at 3,290-3,300 📈📉. We therefore maintain a bearish stance
⚡️⚡️⚡️ XAUUSD ⚡️⚡️⚡️
🚀 Sell@3345 - 3335
🚀 TP 3325 - 3315 - 3305
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
Doge H4 | Overlap resistance at 50% Fibonacci retracementDoge (DOGE/USD) is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 0.1726 which is an overlap resistance that aligns closely with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 0.1930 which is a level that sits above a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 0.1494 which is a swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
DAX H4 | Potential bearish reversalThe DAX (GER30) is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 23,740.18 which is a swing-high resistance.
Stop loss is at 23,960.00 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 23,341.19 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
USD/CAD H4 | Falling toward a pullback supportUSD/CAD is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 1.3675 which is a pullback support that aligns closely with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 1.3623 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 1.3781 which is a swing-high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Aussie H4 | Heading into a swing-high resistanceThe Aussie (AUD/USD) is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 0.6545 which is a swing-high resistance.
Stop loss is at 0.6571 which is a level that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit is at 0.6514 which is a pullback support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Gold fluctuated slightly, retreating to low-multiple operations
📌 Gold news
During the North American trading session on Wednesday, gold prices remained stable, rising by more than 0.30% as easing tensions between Israel and Iran boosted risk sentiment. Meanwhile, disappointing US housing data may prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to take action in the future. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's continued tough stance has limited further upside for gold.
📊Comment analysis
Gold fluctuated in a small range yesterday, and the daily line closed with a positive cross star.
Daily support is around 3327-3324, and you can go long if you touch it.
Daily resistance is around 3368, and you can go short if you touch it.
If the market goes down to yesterday's low, the bottom continues to look near this week's low, and I am more inclined to be bullish
💰Gold operation strategy
If gold is close to 3327, you can go long, with a target of 3345.
Look for opportunities to short around 3350-3360, with a target around 3330.
I hope Labaron's article can help you with your investment. If you don't understand something, you can find me. I am not only a mentor, but also a friend worth making in your life.
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
EURUSD – Signs of Weakness, Risk of Trendline BreakEURUSD is showing signs of weakness after a strong rejection at the 1.16300 resistance zone — a level that previously acted as a distribution area. Despite a brief rebound driven by mixed PMI data, the Euro failed to maintain its momentum and is now turning lower.
If price breaks below the support zone around 1.15400 — which aligns with both the trendline and an old FVG — a deeper decline toward the 1.15000 level could be triggered. Continued failure to surpass the 1.16300 resistance would further strengthen the corrective pressure.
On the fundamental side, expectations for the ECB to hold rates steady and weaker-than-expected Eurozone data are dampening the Euro’s outlook. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains firm on safe-haven demand, with upcoming US GDP and Core PCE data likely to drive short-term direction.
Short idea on $ETHJudging by the structure, if the vector is correctly identified, then on the ETH instrument, a rise to 3400–3600 remains relevant until the first serious correction (this idea would be invalidated in that case).
As for the potential trade — a breakout of the local highs amid global chaos and during the formation of wave 4 of a 5-wave structure. Typically, during the formation of wave 4, there is more media involvement, more noise, and panic.
I’m observing and planning to enter this trade.
Do not follow my vision blindly, as it could be detrimental to you.
Today's BTC trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to you Four Bullish Drivers Behind Bitcoin's Rally
(1) Institutional Capital Rampage: From Whale Holdings to Market Scarcity
- **BlackRock et al. as anchor investors**: BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has ballooned to $71.9 billion, holding 660,000 BTC—equivalent to 3.1% of total circulating supply. Such "whale-level" positions not only provide liquidity support but also shatter traditional financial institutions' attitude toward crypto.
- **Accelerating OTC concentration**: OTC platform data shows Bitcoin inventory plunged from 166,500 coins at the start of the year to 137,400 coins, a 17.5% drop. This signals massive coins are shifting from exchanges to institutional custody, creating a "scarcity effect" analogous to apple prices surging due to supply shortages.
(2) Fed Rate Cut Expectations Ignite Hot Money Inflows
- **Policy pivot-driven capital reallocation**: After Fed Governor Bowman signaled a possible July rate cut, CME futures now price in two 2025 rate cuts (up from one). Historical parallels: Bitcoin surged 42% in 6 months post-Fed's first 2019 rate cut (S&P 500 +12%), as low rates enhance Bitcoin's appeal as a "non-sovereign asset".
- **Diminishing opportunity costs**: A potential Fed rate cut would lower real yields (nominal rate - inflation). If 10-year Treasury real yields fall from 2.3% to 1.5%, the opportunity cost of holding gold/Bitcoin declines, pushing funds from bonds into risk assets.
(3) Regulatory Gate Opening: Chinese Brokerage Breaks New Ground
- **Guotai Junan International's milestone**: On June 24, Hong Kong's SFC approved its virtual asset trading services, making it the first Chinese-funded brokerage to gain such. This opens a "compliant channel" for mainland capital—post-announcement, its HK shares surged 101%, while OTC Bitcoin inventory dropped by 3,000 coins, indicating institutions are front-running liquidity inflows.
- **Financial infrastructure upgrade**: The service allows clients to trade BTC via traditional securities accounts, lowering entry barriers. Analogous to Chinese brokerages accessing gold ETFs in 2013, such channels typically trigger explosive incremental flows, expected to attract $1-2 billion from family offices initially.
(4) Technical "Golden Cross" Confirms Long-Term Trend
- **Key moving average resonance**: BTC recently completed a 50-day MA (102,300 USD) cross above 200-day MA (94,700 USD), forming a "golden cross". Backtesting 2019 and 2020 instances, this pattern preceded 58% average 6-month gains, though short-term pullbacks (10-15%) are common (e.g., June 2023 post-cross correction).
- **Strong support forming a safety net**: The 200-day MA now acts as dynamic support—pullbacks to ~95,000 USD would represent a "secondary buying opportunity at institutional cost bases", similar to housing prices finding support when breaking below moving averages.
Today's BTC trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to you
BTCUSDT BUY@106000~107000
SL:105000
TP:108000~109000
Potential bullish rise?The Gold (XAU/USD) is reacting off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 3,334.86
1st Support: 3,315.22
1st Resistance: 3,356.66
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Falling towards major support?The Loonie (USD/CAD) is falling towards the pivot, which has been identified as an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.3690
1st Support: 1.3667
1st Resistance: 1.3747
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
XAUUSD eyes potential bearish batOn the 4-hour chart, XAUUSD stabilized and rebounded in the short term. Currently, we can pay attention to the upper resistance near 3382.5. After it reaches that level, we can pay attention to the potential bearish bat pattern. At the same time, this position is in the previous supply area.
Bearish continuation?The Swissie (USD/CHF) has rejected off the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 0.8070
1st Support: 0.7962
1st Resistance: 0.8104
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Could the price reverse from here?The Cable (GBP?USD) is reacting off the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 1.3710
1st Support: 1.3620
1st Resistance: 1.3799
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Today's gold trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to youFirst, geopolitical dynamics significantly impact gold prices. When Trump announced a comprehensive ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, tensions in the Middle East eased substantially, causing a rapid cooling of market risk aversion. As gold has long been a favored safe-haven asset, reduced market panic directly diminished demand for gold, triggering price declines. However, the Middle East situation remains highly volatile, and the ceasefire's sustainability is uncertain. If conflicts resume, risk aversion will surge, likely driving gold prices higher.
Secondly, Federal Reserve policy trends cannot be overlooked. Fed officials have signaled hawkishness, implying only two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points in 2025—some members even doubt any cuts will occur. This stance pushed the U.S. Dollar Index above 99.6. Since gold is priced in U.S. dollars, a stronger dollar exerts downward pressure on gold prices. Additionally, rising real interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, prompting investors to favor interest-yielding assets over gold, further prices.
Technically, gold’s breakdown below the key $3,360 support level triggered stop-loss orders in programmatic trading, leading to a "long liquidation cascade" as panic selling accelerated declines. However, after consecutive drops, stabilizing signals have emerged at key levels. For instance, the daily chart shows critical psychological and technical support near $3,300. The 4-hour chart features a long lower shadow from a recent low and three consecutive green candles, indicating buying support at lower levels.
Today's gold trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to you
XAUUSD sell@3350~3340
SL:3360
TP:3330~3320
Bullish continuation for the Fiber?The price is falling towards the pivot point, which is a pullback support, and could bounce to the 1st resistance, which is also a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 1.1630
1st Support: 1.1591
1st Resistance: 1.1692
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Potential bulllish reveresal?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot, which aligns with the Fibonacci confluence and could reverse to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 97.08
1st Support: 96.44
1st Resistance: 98.10
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Important midweek ETH update.In just four days, ETH has impressively climbed 19.37%, achieving a substantial trading volume of 34.9 million, indicative of both renewed interest and heightened speculative activity. This sharp move follows two intensely impulsive trading days that thrust price upwards aggressively, followed immediately by two days of intermittent volatility and macro consolidation—perfectly manifesting the anticipated Bart Simpson pattern previously identified and traded with clinical precision.
Our initial boundary of the macro distribution zone at 2470 marked a critical juncture. ETH faced vehement rejection here, forming a violent wick as price sharply retraced, providing us with the ideal entry for our hedge short. This level—keenly highlighted in prior analyses—initiated a cascade of rapid selling pressure, driving price down with impressive velocity and ferocity directly into the pre-established supply zone. This pullback validated our short, subsequently propelling price downward into demand territory at approximately 2380, where immediate liquidity absorption occurred, confirming demand strength.
Notably, ETH’s rapid recovery during the early Asian session surged back towards the optimal trade entry (OTE) region of the redistribution zone, affirming both market efficiency and the dynamic liquidity interplay present. This cyclical behavior reinforces the significance of clearly defined supply and demand zones, which have acted as robust reference points throughout this trading period.
At this juncture, ETH finds itself at a critical crossroad—a profound decision point characterized by considerable uncertainty. Three distinct scenarios now dominate trader psychology and technical rationale:
Liquidity Hunt Scenario: ETH could swiftly retrace to retest the mean, specifically targeting liquidity pools located near the spring wick from the latest impulse. Such a move would serve to shake out weak longs and solidify the market structure before another upward thrust.
Continuation Scenario: A bullish advance could propel ETH towards testing the upper boundary of the overarching macro symmetrical triangle, aligning with continued momentum and suggesting further bullish intent supported by current oscillatory readings.
Worst-Case Scenario (LL Scenario): The alternative, more extreme scenario involves ETH breaching structural integrity, aggressively flushing out late entrants with a sharp lower low (LL). While perceived as unlikely given recent volume and market resilience, this outcome cannot be discounted—particularly given global macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.
Several exogenous factors compound this uncertainty, most notably ongoing international conflicts and recent market sensitivities tied to off-the-cuff comments from influential figures such as former President Donald Trump. These events amplify volatility potential, exerting tangible influence upon investor sentiment and market positioning.
Analyzing the market structurally, ETH price action is now interacting directly at the apex of the current triangle structure, precisely aligning with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent range—a pivotal area frequently respected by both algorithmic and discretionary traders. Complementing this technical view, oscillators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently hold a neutral stance at exactly 50%, highlighting equilibrium in buying and selling pressure and reinforcing the indecisive nature of the current market environment.
However, adding weight to bullish sentiment in the near term, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) presently indicates upward momentum, suggesting possible further upside if sustained during today's London and subsequent New York sessions. Consequently, immediate trading decisions should remain sensitive to intraday price behavior around these critical junctures.
If you've closely tracked my analyses—especially the detailed insights shared in the recent macro Bart Simpson formation update—you'll likely have secured the short precisely at the 2503 rejection point, efficiently hedging against any potential drawdown from open long positions established lower down. This strategy exemplifies disciplined trading, strategically balancing risk and reward, capitalizing on clearly defined market structures and critical levels.
Summarizing the current state of play with utmost clarity, ETH stands delicately poised between bullish confirmation and bearish capitulation. Intraday sessions in the coming hours, notably London open and subsequently New York open, are expected to provide the decisive directional impulse. Traders should actively monitor price response at these critical levels, maintaining protective hedges where necessary while remaining flexible and adaptive to emerging market dynamics.
In conclusion, ETH’s immediate trajectory hinges upon nuanced market reactions at this strategically significant confluence point. Stay vigilant, as ETH approaches a potentially transformative decision—one offering both substantial opportunity and considerable risk, contingent upon disciplined execution and strategic clarity in your trading approach.
Ethereum at Key Resistance After Short Squeeze BounceEthereum recently found a local bottom at $2,111, triggering a sharp bounce that resembles a short squeeze. However, the rally has met a significant resistance zone—a former support level now flipped into resistance. This zone is technically loaded with multiple confluences: the point of control, the VWAP, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, and the $2,550 weak resistance area. Reclaiming this zone is essential for Ethereum to regain bullish momentum.
Structurally, the daily market structure has shifted. The previous trend of consecutive higher highs and higher lows has been broken with the recent drop, signaling a bearish structural shift unless key levels are reclaimed.
If Ethereum fails to break and hold above $2,550, the current move may confirm as a bearish retest, increasing the likelihood of a rotation back to $2,227 in the near term. A loss of $2,227 would open the door for a much deeper correction, targeting the $1,790 support zone—a critical level that acted as a base during previous consolidations.
At this point, Ethereum sits at a pivotal juncture. The reaction at current resistance will determine whether bulls can regain control or if bears will drive the next leg lower.
MOVE/USDT – Long-Term Breakout WatchTimeframe: 4H (Long-Term Setup)
MOVE is testing a long-term descending trendline. After months of consistently lower highs, we may be on the verge of a bullish breakout.
The previous breakout attempt in April was a fakeout, but the current consolidation near resistance looks healthier and more sustainable this time.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance Levels (Upside Targets):
$0.1446 (Current Zone / Breakout Level)
$0.2265 – Mid-term target
$0.3397 – Key structural resistance
$0.5449 – Long-term target if trend reverses fully
Support Levels:
$0.1312 – Immediate support
$0.1173 – Major long-term base support (strongest defense)
Suggested Stop-Loss:
Below $0.117 (invalidates breakout structure)
Outlook:
If MOVE breaks and holds above the descending trendline, a major trend reversal could follow.
The setup suggests accumulation at the bottom, and volume confirmation will be key.
Patience is crucial — this is a long-term opportunity, not a quick trade. Small caps often move explosively once supply zones are cleared.
DYOR | Not Financial Advice
XLM Breakout Alert – Hidden Gem About to Explode?XLM/USDT is showing signs of a potential breakout from a long-term descending trendline that has been in play since November 2024. Price recently rebounded from a key demand zone (highlighted in yellow), suggesting strong buying interest at lower levels.
📉 Descending Trendline Resistance
The pair has consistently respected a strong downward trendline, rejecting all breakout attempts—until now. Price action is tightening near the apex, increasing the probability of an upward breakout.
🟨 Key Demand Zone
The $0.2150 - $0.2410 area has proven to be a strong accumulation zone, providing a solid foundation for a potential reversal. Price has shown multiple bullish reactions from this area.
📈 Upside Targets Upon Breakout Confirmation: If a confirmed breakout occurs, the following resistance levels can serve as potential profit-taking targets:
$0.2573 (breakout confirmation zone)
$0.3040
$0.3512
$0.4903
$0.5603
📌 Ideal Scenario:
Potential long entry after a confirmed breakout and retest of the trendline (~$0.25 - $0.26)
Stop loss below the demand zone (~$0.2150)
Attractive risk-to-reward setup with minimum 30% upside potential.
⚠️ Note: Wait for confirmation before entering the trade. Be cautious of false breakouts, especially under high market volatility conditions.