Harmonic Patterns
Understanding Average True Range (ATR): A Measure of Market VolaThe Average True Range (ATR) is a technical analysis indicator that measures market volatility. Developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr., the ATR provides traders with insights into price fluctuations, helping them set stop-loss levels, identify breakout opportunities, and assess market conditions.
What is ATR?
ATR represents the average range of price movement over a specified period, capturing the level of volatility rather than the direction of price movement. A higher ATR indicates greater volatility, while a lower ATR suggests a calmer market.
How is ATR Calculated?
The ATR calculation involves three steps:
1. Determine the True Range (TR):
The True Range is the greatest of:
- The current high minus the current low.
- The absolute value of the current high minus the previous close.
- The absolute value of the current low minus the previous close.
2. Calculate the Average True Range:
- ATR is the moving average of the True Range over a specified period (typically 14 periods).
How to Use ATR in Trading
1.Set Stop-Loss Levels:
- Use ATR to place stop-loss orders at a distance that accounts for market volatility. For instance, set a stop-loss at 1.5x the ATR below the entry price in an uptrend.
2.Identify Breakouts:
- Compare current ATR values to historical ATR levels. A sudden spike in ATR often signals a breakout, indicating increased volatility and potential price movement.
3. Determine Market Conditions:
- High ATR values suggest volatile markets, often seen during major news events or market openings.
- Low ATR values indicate a period of consolidation or range-bound conditions.
4. Position Sizing:
- ATR can help calculate position sizes based on volatility, allowing traders to adjust their risk exposure accordingly.
Strengths of ATR
-Versatility:Can be applied to any asset class or timeframe.
- Adaptability:Works in trending and range-bound markets to measure volatility.
- Enhances Risk Management:Helps traders set realistic stop-loss levels based on market conditions.
Limitations of ATR
-Lagging Indicator:ATR is based on historical data and doesn’t predict future price movements.
-No Directional Bias:ATR measures volatility, not the direction of the trend.
-Context Needed:ATR values alone don’t provide actionable signals without additional analysis.
Best Practices for Using ATR
1. Combine with Other Indicators:
- Pair ATR with trend-following tools like moving averages or MACD to validate signals.
2.Adjust Periods:
- The default 14-period setting works well for most markets, but traders can adjust it based on their strategy and timeframe.
3.Use with Breakout Strategies:
- Monitor ATR spikes to identify potential breakout opportunities.
Example of ATR in Action
Imagine Ethereum (ETH) has an ATR value of $50 on a daily chart. A trader planning to enter a long position at $1,800 might set a stop-loss at $1,725 ($1,800 - 1.5x ATR) to account for typical price fluctuations. As the ATR increases to $75 during a volatile period, the trader adjusts their stop-loss level to $1,687.50 ($1,800 - 1.5x ATR), ensuring it reflects the heightened volatility.
Conclusion
The Average True Range is an invaluable tool for traders seeking to understand market volatility and manage risk effectively. While it doesn’t predict price direction, its ability to quantify volatility makes it a key component of any robust trading strategy. Practice incorporating ATR into your analysis to refine your approach and improve decision-making.
BITCOIN (BTC/USD)Bias: Bullish
This idea is based round the idea of a long ranging period, which then leads to a large push higher.
bias change
If bias was to change, then a push below 92-90k would be expected.
Unless specifically timed with a low chance of alteration by external forces, anticipating the exact timing of events is unrealistic.
NZDCAD Bullish Reversal: Buy at 0.618 FibNZDCAD shows potential for bullish continuation after a bearish rally, with a bullish divergence double bottom pattern and a break of its neckline. The price has broken a long-term trendline and formed a higher high without divergence, now moving in an ascending channel. A buy opportunity may arise at the lower boundary of the channel, around the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, offering a favorable risk-to-reward setup for continued bullish movement.
TESLA (TSLA)BIAS: BULLISH
After the reversal, there was a push touching ATH and now looking for support on the previous...
To change bearish bias:
A push below 360-300p/s would be expected... Strong support around 260.
Unless specifically timed with a low chance of alteration by external forces, anticipating the exact timing of events is unrealistic.
FTSE (UK100)BIAS: BULLISH
The FTSE(UK100) still ranging between 8400 and 8000... Break range and expect a big move (9K or retest 7800).
That rejection of 8100 makes me bullish bias X 2
If bias was to change
A solid push and resistance found around 8100-8000 would be expected.
Unless specifically timed with a low chance of alteration by external forces, anticipating the exact timing of events is unrealistic.
XAG/USD (SILVER)BIAS: BULLISH
Current range is 30-28.5/O, a break above 30/O and there's TWO highs to break and find support at before climbing higher.
If BEARISH:
a break below 28.5 would probably keep momentum to 26/O. (Strong support area)
GBP/USD $$$
all zones are valid
if the 15m zone breaks wait for the retest and tale LTF CONFIRMATION in OB
Silver H4 | Potential bullish bounceSilver (XAG/USD) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 30.17 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 29.60 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 30.96 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Gold Trade Plan 21/01/2025Dear Traders,
it seems price hit Top of Descending Channel ,
i expect price will be start downward movement Soon,
First Target : 2680
Second Target : 2650
If you enjoyed this forecast, please show your support with a like and comment. Your feedback is what drives me to keep creating valuable content."
Regards,
Alireza!
Bitcoin Dominance: Elliott Wave and Harmonics Combo (Part 2)MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN Dominance ( #BTC.D / CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D ) indeed started the rise I predicted back in late '22. CRYPTOCAP:BTC rose to the limits, exceeding the 100K Mark.
In #ElliottWave, this is Cycle Wave C (turquoise).
Primary Wave ① (white) completed, with the Corrective Primary Wave ②now in play.
The Correction will pave the way for Alt Season to commence, so the focus will shift to Alt Coins.
#Harmonics are showing #Cypher Patterns, a combo actually, on different degrees.
Bitcoin Dominance ( BTC.D ) Technical Analysis:
* Elliott Wave Impulse: Cycle C (turquoise)
* Harmonic Patterns: Bullish Cyphers
* 88.6% Fibonacci Retracement
* Break-Out with Divergence
* Leading Diagonal in Primary Wave ① (white)
Conclusion:
After a last rise, expecting MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN to top-out and start a Larger Correction.
Alt Season to start and deliver, based on #BTC losing ground.
After this, CRYPTOCAP:BTC to continue ruling, as the one and only #Cryptocurrency.
Hang Seng H4 | Potential bearish breakoutHang Seng (HKG33) is falling towards a potential breakout level and could fall lower from here.
Sell entry is at 19,923.62 which is a potential breakout level.
Stop loss is at 20,420.00 which is a level that sits above a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 19,304.87 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
S&P 500 SELL AT SUPPLY ZONE SMART MONEY CONCEPT Here on S&P 500 price form a supply around level of 6001.19 and likely to sell more so trader should go for short with expect profit target of 5908.44 and 5826.78 and stoploss of 6040.03 .Use money management
CHFJPY printing a Falling wedge CHFJPY printing a falling wedge, along with RSI diversions. Trend reversal expected entry with a buy stop
CAD/JPY H4 | Rising into overlap resistanceCAD/JPY is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 108.82 which is an overlap resistance.
Stop loss is at 109.72 which is a level that sits above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 107.59 which is a swing-low support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
100% for CITY tokenNice reaction around 2,00 usdt. Can go even lower to take all time lows but still worht to take this risk. RR ratio 5:1. Smaller position as elections are there and we can expect some volatility.
MANAGE YOUR RISK AND ALWAYS USE A STOPLOSS
EURGBP in bullish trend EURGBP in bullish trend about to face a trend reversal, as RSI diversions can be seen entry with a sell stop
EURUSD SELLEURUSD 15 MIN CHART
Hello Traders. If you find this analysis useful, please support me with your likes and comments.
If you have another analysis at this pair, please share in comments, I will be glad to discuss with you.
Technical Analysis of XAUUSD Using Support and Resistance LevelsXAUUSD represents the price of gold (XAU) against the US dollar (USD). Its current price is 2724, and the target price is set at 2800. This suggests a bullish outlook, with an expected price increase of 76 points. The analysis is based on the "support and resistance" pattern, where the current price is rebounding from a strong support level. Support levels act as a price floor, where buying pressure typically overcomes selling pressure, preventing further decline. The strong support indicates high confidence among traders that the price will rise. A move toward the target of 2800 aligns with the historical price behavior near this level. Traders may monitor for confirmation signals, such as higher highs or increased volume, to validate the upward momentum. However, market conditions and external factors like economic data or geopolitical events could influence the pair’s movement. Proper risk management is essential.
2025 BTC Cycle Prediction and Past Cycle Macro-Economic TrendsAnalysis of former BTC Cycles Macro-Economic values and timelines to help approach for predicting 2025 BTC Cycle Peaks
BTC still on track unless otherwiseBTC is still on track and many are started to panic.
It is just retesting the trend line unless trend line break and MACD cross back down... Chill
Monero (XMR/USD): Navigating Momentum Toward $600 by Mid-2025Monero (XMR) is currently in a critical phase, with its momentum determining the trajectory for the coming months. The market is watching whether XMR can maintain its current bullish momentum or face a temporary slowdown before resuming its upward climb.
Scenario 1: Sustained Momentum to $600 by June–July 2025
January 2024 Target: If XMR does not lose momentum, it is likely to reach $250 by the end of January 2024.
Consolidation or Pullback: After reaching $250, XMR could enter a brief consolidation phase or experience a small pullback, allowing the market to stabilize and attract fresh buyers.
Mid-2025 Rally: This stabilization will set the stage for a rally toward $600 by June–July 2025, marking a significant price surge driven by strong fundamentals and improving market sentiment.
Scenario 2: Temporary Loss of Momentum Before Resumption
February Retest of $175–$180: If XMR loses momentum, it could fall back to retest the $175–$180 zone in February 2024.
March Recovery to $250: After this retest, XMR could regain strength and target the $250 level by March 2024.
Mid-2025 Rally: Following consolidation around $250, XMR would still have the potential to reach $600 by July–August 2025, albeit on a slightly delayed timeline.
Key Levels to Watch:
$175–$180 (critical zone if momentum is lost).
$250 (key barrier to confirm bullish continuation).
Target: $600 by mid-2025 (bullish rally culmination).
Summary:
Monero’s ability to maintain its current momentum will define its short-term trajectory.
Sustained Momentum: Reach $250 by January 2024, consolidate, and rally to $600 by June–July 2025.
Temporary Slowdown: Retest $175–$180 in February, recover to $250 in March, and achieve $600 by July–August 2025.
Both scenarios highlight Monero’s long-term bullish potential, with $600 as a realistic target for mid-2025.
