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Harmonic Patterns

BTC Price & Market Overview 1. Price & Market Overview BTC Price: Trading between $108,550 and $108,600, up +3.5% in the past 24 hours. Intraday high: ~$109,588, reflecting strong upward momentum from ~$100k earlier this week. Market Sentiment: Fear & Greed Index: 76 (still in "Greed," slightly down by -1.3% from the previous day). Bitcoin Dominance: 57.54% (+0.05%), maintaining a strong position in the crypto market. Macro Context: Gold Futures: +0.29% ($2709.31), indicating slight risk-hedge interest. USD Index (DXY): -0.28% (108.900), a weaker USD favors risk-on assets like BTC. 2. On-Chain & Spot Flows Exchange Balances: ~1.81M BTC on exchanges, down -0.06%, consistent with long-term outflows but no dramatic changes. Spot Flows: Moderate net outflows over the last 8–12 hours suggest potential accumulation off-exchange. Implication: Reduced exchange balances decrease immediate selling pressure, supporting price increases if demand holds steady. 3. Derivatives Overview Open Interest (OI): $153.81B (+2.14%), indicating strong trader interest as prices climb. Futures Volume (24h): $550.56B (+77.71%), a sharp increase, often linked to significant price movements like short squeezes. 24h Liquidations: $1.05B (+83.93%), reflecting a wave of short liquidations above $105k–$107k. Funding Rates: Generally positive (e.g., Binance BTC/USDT ~0.0308%), reflecting a net-long bias. Extremely high funding could signal an overheated market and precede a correction. CME Futures: OI: $20.79B (+3.82%), highlighting institutional trader interest. Watch for weekend-related gaps causing volatility upon reopening. 4. Technical Indicators Price Action: BTC broke above $105k resistance, surging toward ~$109k. Consolidating near $108.5k, with next key resistance at $110k. MACD: Bullish crossover with a positive histogram (~706.79 on 1h), signaling strong upward momentum. RSI: In the 66–68 range, nearing overbought levels but not extreme. Bollinger Bands: Price near the upper band, suggesting a possible short-term pullback or consolidation after rapid gains. 5. Notable Events & Highlights Short Squeeze: Massive liquidations of short positions (10x–25x leverage) above $105k–$107k fueled the rally. CME Futures Risk: Weekend gaps may lead to volatility when traditional markets reopen on Monday. Regulatory News: No immediate developments, but speculation around favorable policies or interventions continues to influence sentiment. 6. Likely Scenarios (Next ~12–24 Hours) Continuation to $110k+ (~40% Probability): Sustained bullish momentum and high volume could drive BTC to test or break $110k. Sideways Consolidation (~35% Probability): BTC consolidates between $106k and $109k, digesting recent gains. Pullback/Correction (~25% Probability): Profit-taking or market cooling pushes BTC toward $105k or $103k. Watch for negative funding or large exchange inflows as warning signs. 7. Overall Confidence Level Market Bias: Moderately Bullish (~60% confidence). Upside Drivers: Positive funding rates, high volume, and continued short liquidations. Risks: Overbought RSI, CME gap risk, potential profit-taking near $110k. Final Note Monitor $110k resistance closely for a breakout or rejection. Pay attention to liquidation clusters, funding rate spikes, and any significant exchange inflows. A decisive move above $110k could trigger another wave of liquidations, while a failure could lead to a pullback. Maintain disciplined risk management practices.
by titankarma
NASDAQ Major Lower Highs break-out just took place!Nasdaq (NDX) broke on Friday above the Lower Highs trend-line that started more than a month ago on the December 16 2024 High that initiated the recent correction. This has technically been a Bearish Leg within the +2 year Channel Up and every time such a structure broke above its Lower Highs trend-line, a strong rally followed. At the same time, the 1D MACD just completed a Bullish Cross below the 0.0 neutral level and out of the 9 previous time this took place, it only failed to produce an immediate rally 2 times. We technically see that the current Bullish Leg that started on the August 05 2024 Low, isn't over yet, so we still expect it to complete a +47% to +48% rise before a stronger correction. As a result, our Target is 25000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by TradingShot
Bitcoin (BTC): Volatility Guaranteed / Expecting Liquidity HuntWell Bitcoin did a really sharp move for the start of the week, but this week is special one! So all the mighty Trump family took some liquidity from markets, which we saw as just the beginning of what is coming. So we are expecting to see a quick liquidity grab to upper zones upon the inauguration after what a real FOMO will kick in and bigger players might take advantage of this!! Overall, we are going to look for a point of weakness, which then should move the price closed to 200EMA or 100EMA. A quick wick move here but if we see some proper movement to upper zones, then we might as well just keep on growing and growing until one day this bubble will explode!! Swallow Team
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by SwallowAcademy
1
EURUSD Top of the Channel Down. How to trade this.The EURUSD pair gave us a solid short-term buy last time (January 13, see chart below) that easily hit the 1.02850 Target: The price remains near the top of the 5-week Channel Down and technically this is a sell signal. Our Target is 1.01250, which is the -2.30% minimum decline that has taken place within this pattern as a Bearish Leg. If the price rises more however and breaks above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), it will be the first time to do so since October 01 2024, and a technical buy signal. In that case, take the loss on the sell and go long instead, targeting 1.06250, which is both marginally below the starting level (Resistance 1) of the Channel Down, as well as significantly below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
USDCHF, follow the current trendOANDA:USDCHF / 1D Hello Traders, welcome back to another market breakdown. USDCHF is showing strong bullish momentum, breaking through key resistance levels and signaling a potential continuation to the upside. However, instead of jumping in at current levels, I recommend waiting for a pull-back to the previous weeklyrange. If the pullback holds and buying confirms, the next leg higher could target: First Resistance: Immediate levels formed during prior consolidation. Macro high. Stay disciplined, wait for the market to come to you, and trade with confidence! Trade safely, Trader Leo
Long
by BTM-LEO
2
XAUUSD One Resistance remains before it marches to $3000.Last week's call on Gold (XAUUSD) gave us an excellent pull-back buy entry on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and reached not only the top of the Channel Up but almost Resistance 1 as well: Reaching Resistance 1 has always been a strong bullish signal for the long-term Channel Up that started more than 1 year ago on the October 06 2023 Low. As you can see, both two times that the price broke above the Triangle pattern of its Bearish Leg and tested Resistance 1, it eventually broke it, confirming the new Bullish Leg. All three break-out Legs have 1D MACD Bullish Crosses to show for. With both previous Bullish Legs peaking upon at least a +21.85% rally, we expect Gold to hit $3000 minimum by April. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
Curve (crv)Crv usdt Daily analysis Time frame 2hours Risk rewards ratio >2.3 👌👈 Technical analysis CRV is caught in a triangle. In similar cases, the price breaks out from the bottom or top of the triangle.And we'll have to wait and see where it comes from. But why is my analysis a bullish one? This bullish analysis is solely for the purpose of examining market sentiment. Given the positive news we hear in the cryptocurrency market and the positive sentiment of buyers in this market, we come to this bullish analysis. Risk rewards ratio is another good point for this analysis Ratio 2.3 makes me a brave heart analyzer. Only by introducing a false selling pressure can this analysis be failed. So , I put my LS in correct place. Of course I know the power of stop hunters.
Long
by Habib-Tafazoli
Is XAUUSD wl break rising channel? On the Weekly time frame last week market was not able to break above the structure resistance, for which there is a possibility market might retest the resistance and start it's downfall Most important Secondly Inauguration of Donald Trump could have a very strong effect on Dollar so most probably we will see a downward movement on Gold. What we have today? As opening of Tokyo session, we predicted that gold have to respect the previous support area at 2690 and move above ,if market remains below 2720 we'll be on brearish cycle till 2640. On the other hand todays in Us ,we have Donald Trump oath inauguration and Holiday, . If any 4H candle closes above 2720 ,we'll jump on buyer sides and my optimal target will be 2750.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Forexmaestro121
LINKUSDT Monthly Analysis: Bullish Breakout AnticipationAnalyzing LINKUSDT on the monthly timeframe for an internal range to external range market structure shift with a breakaway gap involves several steps. Here's a structured approach to evaluate the scenario: 1. Identify the Internal Range: Look for the highest high and lowest low within the recent consolidation or retracement phase. Define this range using clear swing points. 2. External Range Expansion: After the internal range is defined, anticipate the market's potential to break out of this range and create an external range. An external range forms when price moves beyond the internal high or low, indicating a significant trend shift. 3. Market Structure Shift (MSS): A bullish MSS occurs when the price breaks a significant swing high, forming a higher high. A bearish MSS occurs when the price breaks a significant swing low, forming a lower low. Confirm this by observing strong impulse candles closing beyond the swing points. 4. Breakaway Gap: A breakaway gap is typically characterized by price opening significantly above or below the previous month's close, leaving a visible gap on the chart. This indicates a surge in momentum, often driven by a fundamental catalyst or a strong imbalance. 5. Analysis Steps for LINKUSDT: Step 1: On the monthly timeframe, mark the internal high (swing high) and low (swing low). Step 2: Check for a decisive candle that breaks these levels with strong volume. Step 3: Look for a breakaway gap that might align with the market structure shift. The gap suggests institutional activity or aggressive order flow. Step 4: Observe price reaction at FVGs (Fair Value Gaps) or OBs (Order Blocks) formed post-gap for potential reentries.
Long
by Asif_Brain_Waves