XAU/USD Intraday Trading Plan: Key Price Levels and Scenarios1. Immediate Key Price Levels
Primary Resistance (2,790.115): This is the near-term resistance level to watch. Price approaching this area without breaking it could signal a potential short setup. If broken with strength, this level may act as new support.
Point of Control - POC (2,782.227): This level is today's pivot point due to high trading volume in this zone. Price holding above this level suggests bullish sentiment; a drop below signals potential bearish control.
Secondary Support (2,773.665): This is the critical support level in case of a downtrend. If price reaches this area and holds, it may provide a buying opportunity; however, a break below indicates strong bearish momentum.
2. Scenarios for Today
Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout (Continuation)
Trigger: Price breaks and closes above Primary Resistance (2,790.115) with increasing volume, indicating buyers are in control.
Target Price Levels:
Short-Term Target: 2,795.051 (minor resistance from Fibonacci level 0.272) as the initial upside target.
Extended Target: 2,803.705 (High Invalidation Point for Wave 5) – this is a major resistance level with possible volume divergence. It is crucial to monitor volume here, as lower volume at this level could suggest an imminent pullback or trend reversal.
Stop-Loss: Set below 2,782.227 (POC), since a move back below this level would invalidate the bullish breakout.
Invalidation Point: POC (2,782.227) – a drop below this level may indicate a false breakout.
Scenario 2: Reversal at Resistance (Bearish)
Trigger: Price rejects near 2,790.115 (Primary Resistance) with weak volume, indicating that sellers are stepping in.
Entry Point: Initiate short positions near 2,790.115, ideally after observing bearish candlestick patterns or volume declining near this level.
Target Price Levels:
First Target: 2,782.227 (POC), where price might find some support. Partial profits could be taken here, as POC often serves as a consolidation zone.
Secondary Target: 2,773.665 (Secondary Support) – the next significant support level below the POC.
Stop-Loss: Above 2,803.705 (High Invalidation Point). If price surpasses this level, the bearish reversal scenario is invalidated.
Invalidation Point: A confirmed break above 2,790.115 would indicate potential upside continuation and invalidate this short position.
3. Additional Key Terms and Concepts
Volume Divergence: Monitor for volume divergence at the 1.236 (around 2,802) level, as this could indicate reduced buying interest and signal a potential reversal.
Break of Structure (BOS): If the price breaks below POC (2,782.227), it signals a BOS (Break of Structure), favoring bearish momentum. This would confirm a downtrend for the rest of the day.
Inducement Wave 3: Part of the current wave structure suggests an inducement, which might attract buyers at Primary Resistance only to see a potential reversal if it fails to break.
Point of Control (POC): This is the area with the highest traded volume (2,782.227). If price holds above this level, it acts as a bullish pivot point, while a breakdown signals bearish sentiment.
4. Summary of Today's Plan
Bullish Bias if price breaks and holds above 2,790.115, aiming for 2,803.705 as an extended target.
Bearish Bias if 2,790.115 is rejected, targeting 2,782.227 (POC) initially and 2,773.665 (Secondary Support) as an extended target.
Risk Management:
Tight Stop-Losses: Use key levels such as 2,803.705 for shorts and 2,782.227 (POC) for longs to manage risk.
Volume Monitoring: Pay close attention to volume behavior, especially near resistance and support levels, to gauge the strength of any breakout or rejection.
