Harmonic Patterns
XAUUSD:[GOLD]: First Drop And Then Reverse! Comment Your Views! Gold touched $3350 but was rejected at that level, dropping around 3288. The price shows some minor support at this region, which we’re currently monitoring. If it breaks through, it could touch our buying zone, reversing the trend. You can set three targets based on your own analysis and bias. Please use accurate risk management while trading.
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USDCAD H4 I Bearish Reversal Based on the H4 chart, the price is rising toward sell entry level at 1.3908, a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibo retracement.
Our take profit is set at 1.3767, a pullback support.
The stop loss is set at 1.4016, a swing high resistance.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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GOLD Gold Price, 10-Year Bond Yields, Interest Rates, and DXY Correlation
1. Gold vs. 10-Year Bond Yields
Inverse Relationship: Gold prices and bond yields (nominal) typically move inversely. Higher yields reduce gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset, while lower yields boost demand for gold.
Real Interest Rates: The real yield (nominal yield minus inflation) is the key driver. When real yields fall (e.g., due to high inflation), gold prices rise, even if nominal yields increase. For example, gold surged during the 1970s despite rising nominal yields because inflation outpaced rates.
Current Example: A 10-year Treasury yield of 4.54% (nominal) with high inflation could still support gold if real yields remain negative or low.
2. Gold vs. Interest Rates
Inverse Correlation: Rising interest rates (e.g., Fed hikes) strengthen the dollar and increase bond yields, pressuring gold prices. Falling rates weaken the dollar and reduce yields, boosting gold.
Opportunity Cost: Gold doesn’t pay interest, so higher rates make yield-bearing assets (bonds, savings) more attractive
Recent Context: Markets pricing in Fed rate cuts in 2025 have supported gold prices, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold.
3. Gold vs. DXY (Dollar Index)
Inverse Relationship: A stronger dollar (DXY↑) makes gold more expensive for foreign buyers, reducing demand. A weaker dollar (DXY↓) boosts gold’s affordability and appeal.
Exceptions: During crises, both gold and the dollar may rise as safe havens (e.g., 2008 financial crisis).
4. 10-Year Yields vs. DXY
Positive Correlation: Higher yields often strengthen the dollar (DXY↑) by attracting foreign capital into USD-denominated bonds.
Divergence Risk: If yields rise due to fiscal concerns (e.g., US debt) rather than growth, the dollar may weaken despite higher yields.
Summary Table
Relationship Typical Correlation Key Driver(s)
Gold ⇄ 10-Year Yields Inverse Real interest rates (nominal yield - inflation)
Gold ⇄ Interest Rates Inverse Opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold
Gold ⇄ DXY Inverse USD strength impacting gold’s global demand
DXY ⇄ 10-Year Yields Positive Yield-seeking capital flows into USD assets
Key Scenarios
Rising Yields + Strong Dollar:
Gold faces dual headwinds (e.g., Fed tightening cycles).
Falling Yields + Weak Dollar:
Gold rallies (e.g., post-2008 QE, 2020 pandemic).
Stagflation (High Inflation + Low Growth):
Gold rises despite higher nominal yields (real yields turn negative).
Conclusion
The interplay between gold, bond yields, interest rates, and the dollar is dynamic:
Gold’s primary driver is real interest rates, not nominal yields.
A weaker dollar (DXY↓) and falling real yields create ideal conditions for gold rallies.
While correlations are strong historically, exceptions occur during crises or stagflation.
Trade Implications:
Monitor real yields (10-year TIPS) and DXY trends for gold price direction.
Fed policy shifts, inflation data, and geopolitical risks can override typical correlations.
For detailed analysis, track real-time data on bond yields, inflation expectations, and central bank rhetoric.
#GOLD #DOLLAR
NAS100 Breakout or Bull Trap? | Smart Money Zone Rejected! NAS100 has just tapped into a strong supply zone marked by institutional activity — right around 21,700–21,731. After weeks of bullish momentum, price has now shown hesitation at this level.
📉 If sellers step in here, we may be witnessing the beginning of a retracement back to key demand levels.
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🔑 Key Levels to Watch:
🔵 Resistance (Current Supply Zone): 21,700 – 21,731
🟦 First Demand Level: 20,507 – A previous structure and breakout zone
🟧 Major Demand Zone: 19,263 – Institutional accumulation zone and strong price memory
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📊 What to Look For:
✅ Bearish confirmation at the supply zone (rejection candles, break of structure)
✅ Volume spike + lower highs = possible short-term reversal
❗ Invalidation: Clean breakout and retest above 21,731 may continue the bullish rally
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🔮 Possible Scenario:
🟥 If sellers defend the current level, we could see:
1. Pullback to 20,500 📉
2. Deep retracement into 19,263 if demand fails 🚨
3. Short setups may become attractive below 21,500 with tight stops above the zone
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⚠️ Why This Matters:
📆 We're heading into a heavy news week (see the upcoming US economic calendar at the bottom of the chart). Volatility is expected. Smart money often moves before major releases!
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💬 What’s your bias? Are we looking at a fakeout or a breakout?
👉 Drop your analysis below and don’t forget to like if this helped your trading plan!
📌 Follow me @FrankFx14 for more smart money insights and daily trade setups.
Minor advantage on the bullish sideMorning folks,
So, downside AB-CD action is started as we suggested. But, it is very slow and going heavy. Appearing of triangle shape here and early signs of bullish dynamic pressure on daily chart turns the balance slightly on the bullish side.
Still, we do not have yet any clear patterns that makes us sure. So, if you're conservative - it would be better to wait a bit. If you still want to buy inside the triangle - it would be better to place initial stop below OP target, just not to be washed out occasionally, if AB=CD will be completed. Because it doesn't break the bullish context but could give us "222' Buy instead.
UNIUSDT Forming Bullish Wave UNIUSDT is exhibiting a compelling bullish wave formation, rebounding robustly from a well-established support level. This resurgence is underpinned by a notable increase in trading volume, signaling heightened investor interest and potential for significant upward movement. The current market dynamics suggest a favorable environment for UNI, with technical indicators aligning to support a bullish outlook.
Trading Lounge
+7
The Currency Analytics
+7
Reddit
+7
The recent price action has seen UNI reclaim key support zones, demonstrating resilience and the capacity for sustained growth. Technical analyses indicate that if UNI maintains its trajectory, it could achieve gains in the range of 150% to 160%, targeting resistance levels that have previously acted as significant price ceilings. The convergence of increased volume and positive price movement often precedes substantial rallies, and UNI appears poised to capitalize on this momentum.
Investors are increasingly attentive to UNI's performance, recognizing the potential for substantial returns. The current setup offers an attractive risk-reward ratio, particularly for traders seeking to leverage the anticipated bullish wave. As UNI continues to garner attention, its market position strengthens, further validating the optimistic projections surrounding its price movement.
In summary, UNIUSDT's technical indicators and market sentiment coalesce to present a promising opportunity for traders and investors alike. The alignment of a bullish wave pattern, reinforced by strong support and escalating volume, underscores the potential for significant price appreciation in the near term.
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Potential bullish rise?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) has bounced off the pivot and could rise the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 61.68
1st Support: 60.72
1st Resistance: 63.49
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish bounce off overlap support?S&P500 is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 5,784.04
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 5,689.40
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 5,973.58
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
HBAR Will Make a Nice Run After May 26thHBAR will be one of the cryptocurrencies that will rip the hardest this cycle.
Currently HBAR is going to sweep a liquidation wick at around .16-.17 (Should be hit before May 26th)
from there on, HBAR should have a 5 week consecutive rally to above $1.8 until the end of June to beginning of July.
Load up on the dip.
Falling towards pullback support?NAS100 is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 20,809.93
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 20,352.24
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 21,779.63
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Nvidia - The bullish consolidation flag!Nvidia - NASDAQ:NVDA - is still quite bullish:
(click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻)
After Nvidia retested a major horizontal support just last month, we witnessed an extremely strong bullish reversal candle which resulted in a strong +50% rally. Considering the bullish flag consolidation, a breakout is much more likely, but not in the immediate future.
Levels to watch: $150
Keep your long term vision!
Philip (BasicTrading)
BTC 4H – Critical Support Zones Being TestedCRYPTOCAP:BTC is currently retesting its $107.2k support, which has now turned into resistance after a decisive breakdown.
Support Levels to Watch:
- Upper Support Zone: $105k – $104.4k
- Lower Support Zone: $101.4k – $100.7k
Bounce from $104.4k–$105k will be a temporary relief, but it needs strength to reclaim $107.2k.
If the upper zone is not held, the next leg will be towards the lower zone, near $101.4k—$100.7k.
Breakout confirmation only above $110k (previous rejection zone).
The market is showing signs of weakness, especially with increased selling around resistance. Avoid rushing into trades—better setups may come if key zones hold or break.
Tip: Watch for bullish divergences or strong volume at the lower support for potential reversal setups.
ETHEREUM AT A CRUCIAL INFLECTION POINT:CRYPTOCAP:ETH has been grinding just below a major resistance zone (~$2,850) after breaking out of a long-term descending channel.
This is the final barrier before a potential rally towards $4,000.
What to Watch:
Resistance: ~$2,850
Break above = momentum likely to accelerate
Rejection = possible pullback to retest breakout zone (~$2,400–$2,200)
Structure is strong, but confirmation is key. Bulls must clear this ceiling with volume.
Patience. React to a breakout or rejection — don’t front-run.
Bearish reversal for the Aussie?AUD/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.6464
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.6499
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 0.6397
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bearish drop?The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has reacted off the pivot, which lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and could drop to the 1st support, which lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Pivot: 108,411.31
1st Support: 105,349.38
1st Resistance: 109,146.02
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.