S&P500 down -4.84%, worst day since 2020 COVID crash! GAME OVER?The S&P500 (SPX) had yesterday its worst 1D closing (-4.84%) in exactly 5 years since the COVID flash crash started on March 11 2020 (-4.89%). Not even during the 2022 Inflation Crisis did the index post such strong losses in a day.
Obviously amidst the market panic, the question inside everyone's minds is this: 'Are we in a Bear Market?'. The only way to view this is by looking at SPX's historic price action and on this analysis we are doing so by examining the price action on he 1W time-frame since the 2008 Housing Crisis.
As you can see, starting from the Inflation Crisis bottom in March 2009, we've had 4 major market corrections (excluding the March 2020 COVID flash crash which was a Black Swan event). All of them made contact with the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and immediately rebounded to start a new Bull Cycle. Those Bull Cycles typically lasted for around 3 years and peaked at (or a little after) the red vertical lines, which is the distance measured from the October 15 2007 High to the May 07 2011 High, the first two Cycle Highs of the dataset that we use as the basis to time the Cycles on this model.
The Sine Waves (dotted) are used to illustrate the Cycle Tops (not bottoms), so are the Time Cycles (dashed). This helps at giving a sense of the whole Cycle trend and more importantly when the time to sell may be coming ahead of a potential Cycle Top.
This model shows that the earliest that the current Cycle should peak is the week of August 11 2025. If it comes a little later (as with the cases of October 01 2018 and June 01 2015), then it could be within November - December 2025.
The shortest correction to the 1W MA200 has been in 2011, which only lasted 22 weeks (154 days). The longest is the whole 2008 Housing Crisis (73 weeks, 511 days). All other three 1W MA200 corrections have lasted for less than a year.
On another note, the 1W RSI just hit the 34.50 level. Since the 2009 bottom, the market has only hit that level 5 times. All produces immediate sharp rebounds. The December 17 2018, March 16 2020 and August 15 2011 RSI tests have been bottoms while May 09 2022 and August 24 2015 bottomed later but still produced sharp bear market rallies before the eventual bottom.
Uncertainty is obviously high but these are the facts and the hard technical data. Game over for stocks or this is a wonderful long-term buy opportunity? The conclusions are yours.
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Harmonic Patterns
ATOMUSDT UPDATEATOMUSDT is a cryptocurrency trading at $4.700, with a target price of $7.500. This represents a potential gain of over 60%. The technical pattern observed is a Bullish Falling Wedge, indicating a possible trend reversal. This pattern suggests that the downward trend may be coming to an end. A breakout from the wedge could lead to a significant upward movement in price. The Bullish Falling Wedge is a positive indicator, signaling a potential price surge. Investors are showing optimism about ATOMUSDT's future performance. The current price may present a buying opportunity. Reaching the target price would result in substantial returns for investors. ATOMUSDT is positioned for a potential breakout and significant gains.
Analysis of CAC 40 Index The CAC 40, France's leading stock market index, has recently captured the attention of investors as it nears a significant milestone of 8160 points.
According to technical analysis, the index might be on the verge of a notable downturn, potentially influenced by the bearish "Crab" harmonic pattern.
This formation hints at the possibility of a sharp retracement following a peak, driven by shifts in market sentiment and economic factors.
As the CAC 40 approaches this crucial level, investors should exercise caution, as a potential break below this threshold could trigger heightened volatility and put further downward pressure on stock prices.
BTC - Crawling back up after Trump's tariffs.🚀 BTCUSDT - 4H Chart Analysis 🚀
📊 Market Context:
Bitcoin recently experienced a sharp move, creating a Fair Value Gap (FVG) that price is now retracing into. The large gap in price action was influenced by recent economic uncertainty and speculation around Trump's tariffs.
📌 Technical Insights:
🔹 Price rebounded strongly from the support zone 📈.
🔹 Now approaching the FVG, where sellers may step in.
🔹 A potential lower high formation could lead to a continuation downward.
📉 Trade Expectation:
If price shows signs of rejection within the FVG, we could see a bearish move unfold towards previous support levels. The red arrow highlights the expected move if the resistance holds.
⚠️ Market Caution: Given the macroeconomic impact of recent events, volatility remains high. Always wait for confirmation before making decisions!
📢 Do you think BTC will reject this zone or push higher? Drop your thoughts below! 💬🔥🚀
Gold fluctuates bearishly to welcome non-farm payrollsGold's 1-hour moving average continues to show signs of turning downward. If a death cross is formed downward in the 1-hour moving average, then the gold shorts will have a greater advantage. The 1-hour downward trend line also suppresses the rebound of gold. The rebound is still short. The trend suppression has now moved down to around 3110. Gold rebounds under pressure and continues to short at 3110. If the European market is strong in the afternoon, then give up the idea of shorting. Continue to wait for the market to stabilize.
Today's gold short-term operation ideas suggest that rebounding is the main focus, and callbacks are supplemented by longs. The top short-term focus is on the 3110-3115 first-line resistance, and the bottom short-term focus is on the 3054-3066 first-line support.
Short position strategy:
Strategy 1: Short 20% of the gold position in batches when it rebounds to around 3110-3112, stop loss 6 points, target around 3090-3075, and look at 3065 if it breaks;
Long position strategy:
Strategy 2: Long 20% of the gold position in batches when it pulls back to around 3065-3068, stop loss 6 points, target around 3090-3100, and look at 3110 if it breaks;
Tariffs and large-scale non-agricultural affairs are comingGold experienced violent fluctuations yesterday, and technical analysis faced challenges. Luck factors were prominent in extreme market conditions. However, from the perspective of multi-period technical analysis, the gold price is still above the weekly, monthly and daily support, and the long-term bullish pattern has not changed. In the future, we need to focus on the 3054 support level, and the gains and losses of this position will directly affect the future market trend. The 3115 area resistance on the four-hour chart is significant, which is a key watershed in the short-term market. If the gold 1-hour moving average forms a dead cross, the short position will be more dominant. The current upper resistance is 3105-3111, and the lower support is 3054-3046. The operation is recommended to rebound short.
Operation strategy: It is recommended to rebound 3097-3105 short, stop loss 3115, target 3065-3046.
Gold Trade plan 04/04/2025 ( Ascending Channel)Dear Traders,
yesterday, price Hit my Target around 3060
for Today i expect price will continue Uptrend (Ascending Channel)
"If it remains in the upward channel, my initial target is 3140."
If you enjoyed this forecast, please show your support with a like and comment. Your feedback is what drives me to keep creating valuable content."
Regards,
Alireza!
WTI / OIL PoV - Break Point 65$ / 62$ / 47$ LONG The price of oil has recently undergone a significant retracement, dropping to its lowest levels in the last three months. This decline has been influenced by several factors, including trade tariff policies and decisions made by OPEC+.
In March 2025, the price of Brent crude fell below $70, touching a low of $69.76, its lowest since September. In New York, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) lost 1.64%, reaching $67.24. New tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on imports from Canada and Mexico have fueled uncertainty about international trade, raising concerns that global economic slowdown might cause oil demand to fall behind supply.
Additionally, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 138,000 barrels per day in April, with the goal of reaching a production level of 2.2 million barrels per day by 2026. This decision contributed to an oversupply that could negatively affect prices, especially if economic growth slows.
Trade tariffs have had a direct impact on the oil market. In February 2025, China imposed a 10% tariff on U.S. crude oil in response to U.S. tariffs, contributing to the drop in oil prices to their lowest levels of the year. Additionally, U.S. crude oil inventories increased beyond expectations, indicating further weakness in demand.
Geopolitical tensions, such as the U.S. proposals to take control of Gaza and the intention to strengthen sanctions on Iran, have added further uncertainty to the market, affecting consumer and investor confidence.
Regarding the price levels you’ve identified for potential purchases, it's important to note that the oil market is influenced by a combination of geopolitical, economic, and supply factors. The support levels at $65, $62, and $57 that you've pointed out may represent significant technical levels, but it’s crucial to monitor geopolitical developments and trade policies that can affect price volatility. It is advisable to consult up-to-date sources and market analysis before making investment decisions.
Are Time and Reason in Harmony in SPX?Are Time and Reason in Harmony in SPX?
S&P 1D Technical and Fundamental Analysis;
This structure, which looks like an ordinary decline on the SPX daily chart ... in fact, we can say that it carries the pieces of a big scenario that develops synchronously both technically and fundamentally.
Let me explain now;
5 December 2024 was not just a breaking point. Because Trump's statements after taking the presidency for the second time, especially the message that ‘customs walls may rise’ had become clear.
In the same week, the uptrend in SPX quickly weakened and declined as the FED gave the message ‘Interest rate cut is not imminent’.
From here, Bullish Sharq started the formation of harmonic formation.
Now comes the week of 1 May.
- FED's interest rate decision,
- Trump's budget plan,
- And one of the critical macro thresholds where company balance sheets are announced.
While everything is going well so far, if we take into account that the chart will also touch a strong trend line, it may mean ‘either a bounce or a collapse from here’.
Because the price in the market does not just move, it looks for reasons .
I would also like to ask you here;
What will greet the market when this date comes?
Harsh interest rate rhetoric?
Trump's aggressive economic agenda?
Or a recovery supported by positive balance sheets?
Today's gold: short below 3110Today's gold: short below 3110
Technical analysis
4-hour cycle:
Around 3110, it has become the watershed between long and short today.
Support area: 3050-3075
Resistance area: 3110-3115
Market sentiment:
The Asian session has been closed, so we need to be alert to the volatility caused by the re-entry of funds after the European session, and focus on the US market.
Operation strategy:
Short-term opportunities
Entry area: 3105--3115
Stop loss: 3120
Target: 3090→3080→3075
Multi-line opportunities
Entry area: 3080---3070
Stop loss: 3055
Target: 3090→3100→3110 (continue to hold after breakthrough)
2025 Outlook: Correction and Harmonic PatternsThe NASDAQ , after peaking at an unprecedented 22,000 in 2024, has begun a corrective phase driven by pausing Federal Reserve interest rates, concerns over tech-sector profitability, and escalating geopolitical tensions and Trump Commands. This pullback reflects a shift away from growth stocks toward safer assets.
As outlined in this Chart, the index is now validating a bearish harmonic pattern (Crab), which typically signals major trend reversals.
The pattern’s completion zone aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels (61.8–78.6%) of the 2022–2024 bull run, projecting downside targets:
- Near-term support: 20,000–20,500 (dynamic support near the 100-week moving average).
- Intermediate zone: 19,000–19,500 (50% Fibonacci level and long-term trendline confluence).
- Final target: 18,500 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement and psychological “golden support”).
Macro risks, such as prolonged restrictive monetary policy, slowing AI-driven earnings growth, and U.S.-China and US-Europe trade tensions, could accelerate this decline.
Traders are monitoring a decisive break below 20,500 with high volume to confirm bearish momentum, while a rebound from 18,500—coupled with reversal patterns like a double bottom may signal a short/mid-term buying opportunity.
This outlook hinges on earnings reports from mega-cap tech firms (Microsoft, Apple, NVIDIA) and Federal Reserve policy guidance.
Chainlink LongAfter a few months of waiting on the sidelines we are back with a chainlink long after a deep retrace.
Link is showing bullish divergence on the lower timeframes after double bottoming at this crucial support and completing an 886 retracement of an informal Gartley. The support level can be seen across time below.
The only question would be to either wait until the end of the day for this support candle to print or to go in now before confirmation. We will go in with 50% of our ideal position size now and then allocate at the end of the day or tomorrow.
GBPUSD H4 I Bullish Rise Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is testing our buy entry at 1.2963, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibo retracement.
Our take profit will be at 1.3078, which is a pullback resistance level.
The stop loss will be placed at 1.2859, a swing low support.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
XAUUSD M15 I Bearish ContinuationBased on the M15 chart analysis, we can see that the price could rise toward our sell entry at 3092.56, which is a pullback resistance.
Our take profit will be at 3072, aligning with the 161.8% Fibo extension.
The stop loss will be placed at 3120.64, a swing high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au
Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
DOGE I Weekly CLS, KL - 3M OB, Model 2, Target Range highHey Traders!!
Feel free to share your thoughts, charts, and questions in the comments below—I'm about fostering constructive, positive discussions!
🧩 What is CLS?
CLS represents the "smart money" across all markets. It brings together the capital from the largest investment and central banks, boasting a daily volume of over 6.5 trillion.
✅By understanding how CLS operates—its specific modes and timings—you gain a powerful edge with more precise entries and well-defined targets.
🛡️Follow me and take a closer look at Models 1 and 2.
These models are key to unlocking the market's potential and can guide you toward smarter trading decisions.
📍Remember, no strategy offers a 100%-win rate—trading is a journey of constant learning and improvement. While our approaches often yield strong profits, occasional setbacks are part of the process. Embrace every experience as an opportunity to refine your skills and grow.
I wish you continued success on your trading journey. May this educational post inspire you to become an even better trader!
“Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.”
David Perk ⚔
SPX In Free Fall. How Much More Pain Do We Have Coming?Hey my fellow traders and followers, hope all is well with you and your trading?
Let me shed some light on the dark times ahead.
I know some of you are asking ; How much more pain do we have to endure? Well, I'm here to give my opinion on what I see in the daily SPX/USD chart.
Like it or not we have another leg down to go. Sorry. We have on the chart a Head & Shoulder, or Inverted V pattern, Bearflag pattern after the first round of distribution. Second distribution will show in another leg down to 5343.4 area which will be our TP-1. TP-2 is ready for it?------
4981 area. Long ways to go yet. I see this playing out until anywhere from April 23 to April 30th.
Whether you want to believe this possibility or not, please be careful with your bias. Remember the Daily and Weekly are still bearish so understand the depth we can fall. My job is to tip you off on what is possible. Until next time please trade carefully if you choose as the market is in wide wide price swings that keep hitting retail trader's stops in both directions. If you are going to trade, trade the smaller TF's to avoid blowing up your account.
Best of luck in all your trades.
Cheers!
Today, the short gold position has made a profit of 15 pointsGold's 1-hour moving average continues to show signs of turning downward. If gold once forms a dead cross downward in 1 hour, then gold shorts will have an advantage. The 1-hour downward trend line of gold also suppresses gold's rebound. Gold can still continue to short on the rebound. The gold trend suppression is now down to around 3108
BITCOIN Bollinger squeeze and 1D Death Cross aiming at $150kBitcoin (BTCUSD) will complete today a 1D Death Cross (1D MA50 crossing below the 1D MA200). A technically bearish pattern in theory but in practice it has been one of the greatest buy signals during the 2023 - 2025 Bull Cycle.
** Bollinger Squeeze, 1D Death Cross, 1W MA50 **
As you can see, since the long-term Channel Up started with the November 21 2022 Bear Cycle bottom, we have had another two 1D Death Crosses. Both took place on the Channel Up bottoms (September 04 2023 and August 05 2024), serving as Higher Lows for the pattern. At the same time, the price had a test (or close) of the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), while the Bollinger Bands (blue cloud) have already started to squeeze.
This squeeze is critical as it was even present during the November 21 2022 Bear market bottom, having started a little earlier on October 31 2022. In fact the squeeze started earlier on all three bottom phases and even on the current price action we are seeing so far a Bollinger Squeeze since March 17 2025, a little after the near test of the 1W MA50.
** The Transition Month **
In typical cyclical manner, each year had one Channel Up bottom. This bottom process (consisting of the Bollinger Squeeze, 1D Death Cross and 1W MA50 test) technically appears once a year. We call this month 'Transition Month', which is the necessary phase that BTC spends to go from the bottom to the new Bullish Leg of the Channel Up. In 2022 that month was December, in 2023 it was September and in 2024 August. Since all bottom conditions have been met this time also, we expect April to be the 2025 Transition Month.
** What's next? **
As far as the next leg up in concerned, all 3 previous Bullish Legs rose by at least +100% from the bottom. Since March 10 was the close test of the 1W MA50, we can consider that the bottom from which to measure the +100% leg up. That suggests that BTC will hit at least $150000 on the next top.
But what do you think? Has this Bollinger Squeeze, 1D Death Cross, 1W MA50 Triple Combo just priced the new bottom? And if yes, will April be the Transition Month for the new Bullish Leg to $150k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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GBP/USD Bullish Momentum: Key Retracement Levels to WatchThe GBP/USD currency pair is exhibiting strong bullish momentum within an ascending channel. Recently, the pair established a consolidation range within this channel, with the upper boundary at 1.30149 and the lower boundary at 1.28710. Following the formation of a new high, no significant divergence has been observed, indicating the potential for a continuation of the prevailing trend.
Given the current price action, a retracement may occur, potentially providing an optimal entry opportunity around the 0.5 or 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels. Traders should closely monitor price movements and key support levels for confirmation before entering a position.
Gold non-farm payrolls comingShort-term analysis of gold; Last Friday, gold rose all the way to 3085, and there is still room and demand for further rise. On Monday, it opened directly to 3097. Pay attention to the suppression of 3150 above gold. The news stimulated it to break new highs. Today, it is mainly a correction, and short orders must be cautious.
Gold operation ideas;
1; The upper short order can be tried at 3110-15, with a small stop loss, and the target is more than 15 points.
2; The lower long order can be tried at 3085-80, looking at 10-15 points, and the long order must have a stop loss. If you don't want to take losses, you don't need to participate in long orders