Haven
Strong USD Takes its Toll on AUDUSDAlthough the upbeat tone of the RBA gave AUDUSD some respite, this was short lived dollar buying continued in a frenzy. The greenback sustained gains against a basket of major currencies over NAFTA trade talks, strong economic data, and general haven flows.
At the time of this writing, AUDUSD was trading at 0.7179, near the low of 2017.
We will find resistance from levels from above including the following:
0.7336 from gaps
0.7382 from highs and lows over the past 14 periods
0.7465 from highs and lows over the past 30 periods
0.7678 from highs and lows
We will find support from levels from below including:
0.7169 from highs and lows over the past 14 periods
Lets look at some technical analysis for AUDUSD. Volatility is higher than usual, but still has room to go. The RSI is 38, indicating that we are in a bear trend, but not yet oversold. The MACD is below the signal line, but not to an extreme. This suggests we are in a bear phase with room to go. AUDUSD is below the 50 period SMA, indicating a bear trend. The ADX indicator shows a bear trend.
The Kovach Reversals Indicator suggests that we are oversold.
Bull Score: 2 Bear Score: 4 Ranging Score: 0
AUDUSD intraday appears to be ranging at the immediate moment, as the data has been priced in. Some bearish indications suggest that we may see another breakdown soon.
We will find resistance from levels from above including the following:
0.7182 from gaps
0.7197 from sma 50
0.7229 from highs and lows over the past 14 periods
0.7291 from gaps
0.7316 from highs and lows over the past 100 periods
0.7346 from gaps
0.7363 from highs and lows
Levels from below include:
0.7159 from highs and lows over the past 14 periods
Lets look at some technical analysis for AUDUSD intraday. Volatility is slightly higher than usual, but not to an extreme. The RSI is 43, indicating that we are in a bear trend, but not yet oversold. The MACD suggests that we are in a bearish phase, but that we are not oversold, yet. AUDUSD intraday is below the 50 period SMA, which indicates a bear trend, but not oversold yet. Additionally, AUDUSD intraday is under the 100 period SMA, which is currently at 0.7232, indicating bearishness. And further, the longer term 100 period SMA is about even with the 50 period SMA, suggesting AUDUSD intraday is ranging. The ADX does not indicate a trend, i.e. we are ranging.
We are below the central moving average of the Kovach Reversals Indicator at 0.7191, and fairly close to it. If we lose momentum, we'll have support from the lower bound of the KRI at 0.7158.
Bull Score: 0 Bear Score: 4 Ranging Score: 3
EURUSD Short in light of Greek woes; USD Safe Haven StatusMight be difficult to get this ball rolling with a smooth start but in the event of a proper channel breach (pictured) and a solid daily close below 1.100 , there's about 550 Pips on offer till the March low of 1.045 if risk aversion truly kicks in, coupled with a rapid devaluation of the EUR.
The EUR is currently a moderately risky asset to hold what with Greece uncertainties weighing down on the currency. The USD may prove to be a better safe haven over time, despite the temporary (citation needed) lull in economic data, more so the Jobs Figures.
Below the longer-term 1.081 Pivot, more bears may begin to check-in, otherwise this level is expected to act as a level of significant support.
Risks:
A continuation in poor/mediocre data prints from the US.
A credible, transparent and sustainable solution to the Greece fiasco that is taken as a positive to the EUR.
Incredibly good EUR data prints that reflects a sudden and robust pickup in economic growth in the Eurozone.
Some weirdly long pin-bar that is as a result of rapid buying of the EUR and then sudden selling which would take out stops at 1.200 in a spiky flash.
