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Hawkish

The SNB could surprise (again) with a larger than expected hikeThe SNB (Swiss National Bank) are expected to hike interest rates tomorrow, which would send their rate above zero for the first time since 2011. The central bank entered ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) between 2011 – 2015 before switching to NIRP (negative interest rate policy) with a rate of -0.75%, where it remained until June this year. And with seemingly few paying attention, they not only hiked rates but came out swinging with a 50bp hike and sent shockwaves across currency markets. This quickly saw the yen strengthen as traders assumed the BOJ would be next to follow, but we’re still waiting and will likely be for some time. But the main point I am making is that the SNB are likely to hike again tomorrow, and it would be wise to at least be prepared for a larger hike than some expect. A 50, 75 or even 100bp hike could be on the table for the SNB A recent poll saw economists up their 50bp hike for the SNB to 75bp. But in light of Sweden’s Riksbank hiking by 100bp, wholesale prices in Germany exploding higher and the potential for the Fed to hike by 100bp, I’m not discounting the potential for the SNB to join to 100bp club. Besides, they hiked by 50bp when the consensus was for no change at all and have a track record with an element of surprise. Furthermore, the Swiss government upgraded 2022 CPI from 2.5% to 3%, and for 2023 from 1.4% to 2.3% - so perhaps they know something we don’t. CHF/JPY daily chart: There are fewer finer examples of a strong bullish trend on a currency chart, than CHF/JPY right now. Momentum has been increasing during each impulse move higher, the moving averages are in ‘bullish sequence’ and fanning out, and prices are respecting the closest average as support. Prices have been coiling up within a falling wedge pattern (bullish in an uptrend) and potentially printed its swing low this week at the 10-day EMA. Furthermore, a 3-day bullish reversal pattern called a morning star has formed, so the bias remains bullish above this week’s low and for a move to the 150.71 high. A break above which brings 154 into focus. However, even if prices break low we would still keep an eye out for a potential swing low, given the diverging policies between the SNB and BOJ.
Long
by CityIndex
Tokyo says enough , starts intervention!INFORMATION USDJPY has been rising for multiple weeks. The current trend is very bullish. Couple of days ago, Japan had to intervene and bought Yen using its dollar reserves. Statistic shows that Japan has over 1 Trillion US dollars in their reserves. As the dollar continues to get stronger, BOJ is planning to Battle for the next 6-9 months to stabilize the Yen. WHAT COMES IN MIND? USDJPY is in a consolidation Phase on the higher timeframe and will continue to do so base on what BOJ is trying to do. FEDS continue to stay Hawkish on Interest rates this means stronger Dollar Japan interest rate stays Low and BOJ still continuing to print Money Population Statistic: Japan has a growing number of Old people compare to Young people, this is very bad long term for the economy because there is a imbalance of supporting cast. MY FINAL THOUGHTS: We will consolidate between 140 - 145 for the next couple of months unless BOJ stops intervening. I have USDJPY continuing higher in a slow fashion to 160 - 170. Weeks to MONTHS
by OmaOne
As policies continue to diverge…For readers who have been following us right from our first ever TradingView idea, you’ll recall our first ever trade idea on long USDCNH. It’s been a fun 5 months writing and sharing our thoughts with the community. Much has happened since April, but two critical things stayed the same. The US Federal Reserve remains hawkish, raising rates, while the PBoC remains dovish, continuing with its easing stance. The result? USDCNH trading beyond the 6.9 level, surpassing both our target levels. With the next Federal Reserve meeting coming up, we think it’s time to review this idea again. The CME FedWatch Tool allows us to gauge what market participants are expecting the Fed to do. The prevalent consensus seems to be that the Fed is likely to raise rates till the end of the year before holding rates at the 3.75 – 4.00 % level for the next year. On the other hand, the PBoC has continued to ease, cutting reserve requirement ratios & lowering its medium-term lending facility. With China still battling Covid via lockdowns, persistently low inflation numbers, and weak economic numbers, we see further easing on the cards from PBoC. Looking at the charts, the USDCNH pair has just completed a symmetrical triangle chart pattern. After breaking out to the upside and a brief pull-back, prices continued upwards with strong momentum. Using classical charting techniques, the target levels for the breakout can be set to the distance of the high and low of the symmetrical triangle and applied to the top of the triangle. With the target price of 7.1180, there is still upside for this trade. It seems that policy divergence will remain for these two major economies, which is likely to strengthen the USD and weaken the CNH further, driving up the USDCNH pair. Using technical to identify target levels where we will be comfortable, we think that there is room for more upside. Entry at 6.9500, stop at 6.8545. Target at 7.1180. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. Reference: www.cmegroup.com
Editors' picks
CME:CNH1!Long
by inspirante
11
US 10Y Yield Nearing 3%I believe that watching the US10Y is a great way to gauge what's happening in the equity markets. As we've been witnessing, stock valuations are being compressed and investors are feeling the pain. I've been watching this chart for a while, and you can see that the 10-year Treasury yield is nearly at 3% and is at 4-year highs. This is something to definitely keep an eye on as we continue to see a hawkish fed. We could see a change in dynamic within the secular trend of the market if this scenario continues in this trajectory.
TVC:US10Y
by ZenitCrypto
Hawks vs Doves, the battle of CNH…CNH1! Birds of different feathers are likely not to flock together! As policy divergence continues between the US Fed (Hawkish) vs the PBoC (Dovish), we expect the Dollar to strengthen against the RMB on a macro level. On the technical side, we see a bullish RSI divergence (prices making lower lows while RSI making higher lows), suggesting that momentum is nearing the end and potentially reversing. We also note proximity to the long-term support level since 2014 as an additional bullish factor. Entry at 6.355, stop at 6.2955. Targets are 6.580 and 6.720. Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
Editors' picks
CME:CNH1!Long
by inspirante
13
$BTC Extreme Volatilityfinally $BTC picked a direction this is normal don't think about todays price think about the price in 2-5+ years if 42k become resistance Bitcoin Algos will flip to sell again The Stock market is controlling the narrative its all bunch of bull shit don't be a scared paper hands pussy buy the dips HODL this is financial advice don't be a pussy will get worse before it gets better high probability BTC trades towards 37k next few weeks as the stock market shifts sentiment away from growth into value energy etc... buy the fear IMHO hold as long as it takes YOLO CASH IS TRASH
Long
by bmoneytree
DAILY MARKET BRIEFING; EUR/USD ANALYSISDAILY MARKET BRIEFING; EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS September 23/2021 The EUR/USD had a complete move towards the August 23rd lowest support area as negative economy reports blazed from the side of the EURO zone earlier in the last trading hours. It was not long ago when the expected interest rate hikes took charge of the market sentiment. Yet, the government speeches at the FOMC reassured the expectation of the market participants to come to a hawkish fed monetary policy, conclusion. While on the negative side of the EURO report from the fundamental economy update claims that The German manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) had an expansion in a report of 58.5 although the previous reading of the PMI data was at 62.5 economic analysts predicted a forecast of 61.5. The German services PMI also fell from a previous reading of 60.8 to 56.0. Also, The European service PMI went negative. According to an economy report from Reuters, The dollar chop down across the board on Thursday as enhanced risk emotion in global financial markets wiped out its gains in the previous day after the U.S. Federal Reserve flagged plans to dial back its stimulus this year. Trading recommendations, in general, the market tends to have a bullish trading bias hence the further movement of price to the upside could be welcome in the market To prevent yourself from suspicious brokers I choose WikiFx to research brokers:
Long
by Theexcelentrepreneur
Gold bulls' revenge will be sweet (Update 4)Hello traders and welcome to the August NFP-week. It promises to be a volatile one. In a word, the Oxford English Dictionary defines "august" as "impressive": as has historically been the month of August for Gold. Last Saturday the Chinese PMI fell below 50.5, the lowest reading since the COVID-outbreak of February 2020. They say China is the factory of the world, and the reading is not a contraction but clearly the 2nd biggest world economy is slowing down. Next to this the US PMI released yesterday missed forecasts and came in at 59.5. The US10Y yields made a fresh move lower this week and closed the day below 1.18 yesterday. These are all worrying signs for gold bears. Currently gold is being twisted and turned, pushed and pulled between two main fundamentals. First of all, the skyrocketing inflation and the slowing down of the economy. On the other hand the risk-on mood in equities is making gold unattractive for investors and traders to enter the goldmarket and some Hawkish FOMC members are spilling the beans for gold by their comments in the media. Everytime gold makes a nice bullish move, some FOMC member comes and spoils the bullish party, which makes investors wary of holding positions. The volumes are declining, positions are being closed (COT-report showed longs & shorts closed last week). Last week we had an impulse breakout move from 1790-1833 thanks to Uncle Powell, but gold lost most of its gains on the last day of the month. This was triggered by end of month outflows and remarks by other FOMC members that tapering should start asap this year. Nevertheless, gold remains supported by 1805 and we closed the week&month above all main H4 moving averages. Bulls entered the ring again from the golden fibo (0.382) on Monday and closed the day above the daily 21 EMA. Also we have a full house golden cross on H1, H4, Daily, Weekly & Monthly timeframe now. All these timeframes are operating in a golden cross formation currently, which strengthens my bullish view. The double top on 1833 is worrying from a technical point of view, and this needs to be taken out by the gold bulls for bigger bulls entering the market. As I mentioned in my previous weekly view, the NFP should be the bullish trigger for gold, until that time we remain rangebound with a bullish undertone and I expect gold to reach 1845 (and if we are lucky 1860) by end of this week. As long as the bull channel holds (which the lower band is around 1799 now) I remain bullish on gold and I will be buying dips. Love and hugs, Cesaro
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CesaroPelucci
1
AUDUSD H4 - Long SetupAUDUSD H4 - Here is Aussie vs the dollar, again very similar structure to the above, 0.733 was the resistance zone in this occassion whereas 1.33 was cable resistance, regardless we are close to seeing a break and close on the H4. From this, we could look for entries around 0.7335 to jump in long after a correction, just cautious of the rally leg going in to break resistance from 0,727 to current price (circa 100 pips), I feel we may need more of a correction which may dip us below the S/R retest price. Lets see...
Long
by Trade_Simple_FX
AUDCAD LONG OPPORTUNITYSince the AUSSIE/US DOLLAR are correlated with the AUSSIE/CANADIAN I find it to be appropriate to share both pairs with a similar idea. The Aussie certainly showed very high momentum in price action with a generous push to the upside breaking very respectable swing lows. Last time price used this level as Support we did find price pushing up without hesitation. This idea has Optimal Risk/Reward for a Swing Trade, the potential reward against the low risk is definitely worth taking the Risk ALL DAY.
Long
by RiosTrades