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Hayeksystems

$TWTR - Regulation May Give Pressure Towards $28=> Increased sector regulation via Cambridge Analytica etc is going to be bad news for TWTR and we believe the recent squeeze in shorts has run its course. => Despite front-end rates ticking to the upside this year, differentials will not be enough to protect global Equity pressure will encourage investors to sell, especially in the U.S. => A likely correction is necessary and healthy in this case as we look for a more meaningful rebound in TWTR towards the end of Q318. => From a technical perspective we are seeing weakness around the 61.8 fib as widely expected. GL all
NYSE:TWTRShort
by RaiseTheBid
1
Eyeballing a move to $14000 in BTC via upcoming war with Iran=> Expecting conflict in the middle east, especially the upcoming war in Iran to keep pushing the buy side BTC 5.27% . => Dirty money via Russian sanctions are also playing their part in the steady inflow. => Big banks and the usual suspects in bed with regulators will do a 180 and start applauding their 'favourite cryptos' later in the year. We are eyeballing a move above the 50% level towards the 14000 handle, this will trap all soft bears who are 'late too the party' ..from here we will expect a pullback or 'dead cat bounce' towards 12,200 before positions are covered and trigger momentum towards the 2017 highs and beyond.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by RaiseTheBid
5
S&P Recovery Less Certain As Bulls Look Exhausted=> Here actively looking for positions in S&P around the 2730 handle. Expecting equities enjoying the recent short lived relief rally on Thursday's U.S CPI miss to finish after the NY opening range today. => A weekly close below 2730 will be needed for bears to retain the upper hand as this may see bearish sentiment resume early Monday. => Things are starting to look very dark ahead for the U.S economy via protectionism with Iran deal, trade wars et al providing fuel to the fire. => A failure to register a weekly close below 2730 will strengthen the upside bias. => From a TA perspective we are trading simple Support and Resistance levels here as bulls begin to look exhausted, no more, no less. GL
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by RaiseTheBid
FTSE Upside limited, eyeballing a 30% correction via Hard BrexitHere actively looking to build a full sized position in UK Equities on the sell side. => Hard Brexit now sitting in 'done deal' territory. => All UK sectors are starting to cough and beckoning for help. => Expecting the shock to be felt in both the Equities market as well as the Pound (see related ideas). => This will detonate soon and provide a category 5 hurricane for little England. There is a more detailed description in the related Sterling idea covering the political side as well as the fundamental side, I would highly recommend reading this for those tracking Brexit in FTSE and Pound. Things are going to get dark very soon.
FOREXCOM:UK100Short
by RaiseTheBid
2
Gold - Could Jump Towards 1380 If Risk Enters Into Play=> Inflation recently slowing across US, EZ, UK et al other major economies we have only one side of gold in play here... risk . Volatility is set to increase in May as tensions in the Middle East, namely Iran continue to escalate. We are setting the stage for war and commodities (namely oil and gold) are the beneficiaries of risk flows. => FED hikes in May are now swimming in done deal territory after yesterday's FOMC with bonds expected to remain choppy for the next few months after confirming the widely anticipated 3%. => USDJPY has defended the 110 barrier after USD bulls looked for reassurance despite the momentum. Profit taking is partly to blame here. => If inflation enters back into the picture we can escape towards 1400 although we don't see inflation in play till Q318. In any event, smelling more panic here in foreign policy over the coming weeks.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by RaiseTheBid
Dissecting the "Hard" Brexit shock in SterlingThis part of the Brexit leg is easier to track in Sterling, as FTSE continues enjoying the news of no hikes and more QE guaranteed till the Brexit finish line. From a Political perspective: => The odds of T.May remaining as prime minister are diminishing by the minute. The latest immigration scandal has her fingerprints all over the trail, not sure she will survive this one. => Sajid Javid the Euroskeptic has just been appointed as Home Secretary. This increases further the odds of a Harder Brexit as Sajid has been clearly in favour of leaving the customs union. From a Fundamental perspective: => Macro numbers are very very soft in almost all sectors and continue to disappoint. The latest GDP read was atrocious and => Inflation flopping again which is sending loud messages to the BOE that even hikes wont save this one. From a Technical perspective: => We have been stuck in the wide Brexit range with the avalanche now starting to form after showing exhaustion at the widely watched 78.6% of the Brexit move so far. => The only level in play here is 1.371x which unlocks the bottom of the wide range towards our targets of 1.27 and 1.21. => Expecting a fast move towards 1.33 from here which will finish the current leg up, followed by a pullback towards the 1.371x to mark the top, and then down we go.
Short
by RaiseTheBid
1
Iran & Attractive Buying Territory in OilPlenty of noise in the street today ... giving large hands another opportunity to shake out shorts and offering those sharp enough cheap entries ahead of Trump confirming the US to leave the Iran deal (just over an hour from now). => We have posted in detail about the flows into BTC and Gold with Iran (see attached) as risk enters into the picture one more time from the political side. => Expecting a sharp and short lived knee jerk reaction on the confirmation, followed by a slow grind higher into the $72 handle completing our second and final target. => US foreign policy is threatening the future of the global economy, things are starting to look dark ahead . => Simple stuff from a technical perspective, we are buying the bottom of the channel with targets towards the highs. This will be the final clearing leg for all of our longer-term positioned longs as we expect exhaustion to start coming in from bulls due to the continual increases from the supply side making anything higher without a fully escalated war harder to justify. GL
TVC:USOILLong
by RaiseTheBid
2
EURUSD - ECB end of QE fact play Here we are looking to trade the final wave of the flows with ECB ending their QE programme alongside a protectionist US fiscal policy. From a fundamental perspective: Softer numbers from EZ on both the inflation and consumer front have driven any odds of a hike in 2018 out of the question. => We have (and still are) trading the expectation leg of this move until summer where it is crunching time for the ECB. => We are expecting Draghi to confirm September as the final month for QE and EURUSD to drive the currency board for the remainder of 2018, starting late May. From a technical perspective: The 1.20xx - 1.19xx handles have plenty of support from smart money who have been tracking the end of QE leg since Draghi's speech in Portugal mid 2017 and we see this as a good buying opportunity with targets as far as the 1.31. => We are crashing back at the last breakout point. After the months of volatility compression we are starting to squeeze 'late comers' as the boat was too loaded. The volatility expansion leg will start late May. => 1.220x is the only level in play in the sessions before ECB May. In simple words, this move from 1.19xx -> 1.30xx will come from Draghi triggering the end of QE fact . ...On the other side, the risk to our thesis is EZ inflation not remaining above 1.4 . In any other dovish case this will provide a direct move to the lows of the 1.16xx handle with steel support.
Long
by RaiseTheBid
5