HCMC
Got stuck on SNDL ? want to jump in on the pump ? full analysisSNDL let's jump in!
Technicals :
1. Stock had a motive wave – we can see its not an impulse wave but a regular motive because the stock doesn’t fit the golden rules of impulse wave by Elliot's theory.
- In the duration of 2 days the stock made a move of 231%.
- RSI OVERBOUGH during the whole period
- ADX way above 40 middle line – asset extremely trending!
- VWAP below candles meaning traders are buying in a higher price then avg
- POC (red line) WAY below the price action (note this is the visible range so it includes all of Feb volume)
Conclusion: Asset was trending in extreme hype (Sentiment) just like my cover on HCMC from yesterday -we are looking at pure hype and no real catalyst – overvalued.
2. Correction wave – as we predicted in the union group this is a correction wave – NOT a pullback the difference is pullback is healthy but what we are seeing here is a stock dump.
- In the duration of one-day stock corrected down 43%.
- Notice RSI not oversold – asset value avg still high (RSI settings is 14)
- ADX not trending anymore – going into the lower half (below 40)
- VWAP way above price vol level
- POC (red line) still lower than asset price (note this is the visible range so it includes all of Feb volume)
- Chart clues: no higher wick on the highest candle in the trend showing no struggle between buyers to sellers – very bad indication – this is as if everyone pulled out together and turned from bulls to bears at the same time!
Conclusion: asset was dumped either in coordination or in a domino effect – which is more likely – traders so money pulling out of the stock and it caused them to pull out as well and cause asset value to drop significantly and rapidly – pump and dump style
This means a lot of traders that bought high were left ‘holding the bag’ as is common in a pump and dump and that is why we train our traders how to spot clues on the chart and in volume readers to know when they should pull out as pump and dump is super high risk!
Volume analysis:
AVG 3m: 552M
Last week of trading avg: 630M (estimate – not way to know the accurate number)
High peaks :
10th of Feb: 758M
11th of Feb: 1.05B !!!! notice this is DUMPING volume !! pump and dump clearly!
In the chart I have described 2 possible outcome – obviously can only go or down but how do we know which one it will be :
Good scenario:
If we see asset price cross the $ 2.60 and starts channeling sideways or keeps rising that means there is hope for the traders stuck in the higher prices to get reached and get out – I don’t think it will go higher than 3.7$ -so if you get a chance to get out -go for it! if you are considering entering and you are not in – the price you want is $.260 ! not below it!
Bad scenario:
If we see asset price travel below 1.65 (below gap – yellow box) into the red zone market on the map this could be a time to take the loss and get out as the asset will trend down and side-channel there (hope I am wrong for your sake) if you want to enter the asset and you see it trending down consider waiting for it to land on the POC level at $1.25 ( remember POC is like a “magnet” and price will travel towards it), from there expect a longer hold till we get another rally on the asset unless we get catalyst news (fundamentals).
This is the chart on a 1-week view to show the power of this sharp move:
Important to note (taken from Seeking Alpha):
“Sundial Growers (NASDAQ: SNDL) has priced a registered offering of 100M Series A Units, each consisting of one common share and one-half Series A Warrant to purchase one common share and 33,333,334 Series B Units, each consisting of one pre-funded Series B Warrant to purchase one common share and one-half Series A Warrant to purchase one common share.”
Trade safe and be safe
FDGT the traders union
HCMC a lot of hype - how do we play this move - deep analysisSo we are looking at HCMC on a 1H chart - a short time frame because we must see all the clues in the chart so a short time frame is in order.
A couple of lines on the catalyst news just to make sure you are up to date:
The company deals with health products mostly organic foods and has several vape shops in the USA.
They filled a lawsuit against the giant Philip Morris for patent infringement (‘the 170 patent’) on what they refer to as ‘Electronic Pipe’ this is taken from the SEC report (file number 001-36469) :
“An electronic pipe, comprising:
a battery, an electronic module, a combustible material reservoir, and a heating element fixed in the combustible material reservoir.
combustible material loaded into the combustible material reservoir.
wherein the pipe is structured to transmit an electric current from the battery to the heating element, the heating element initiating a combustion reaction in the combustible material reservoir.”
Ok Let’s try to break it down:
1. - First thing we saw is a healthy trending asset. From 0.000096 till 0.001475- moving in a correction motive pattern which is what we want to see on a stock.
-RSI not overbought and except for rare peaks overall looks good.
- Notice ADX is NOT trending in that part and that means gradual moves up.
- Notice the massive wick on catalyst news that gave us a clear signal that the hype is coming (red square – red star – super important to spot these clues in the chart early!)
2. - Then it exploded upwards – this is HYPE and a lot of it – stock because ‘meme’ trading and was trending on social media and every kid with a TikTok and a trading account started talking about it like we discovered Microsoft in the 90’s – which is obviously not the case . The stock took off from 0.0016 to 0.0064 in 3 trading days – but what goes up must come down.
- RSI peaking to overbought and pullback is in order soon
- ADX losing trending momentum and crossing down from the 60 level of ADX – pullback coming-
3. - Smart money started exiting and left a lot of new retail traders holding the bag. If you ask me we had a lot of money pulling out from the 8th of Feb and started dollar cost averaging out of the trade gradually.
- Notice we have 2 Fib retracements on the chart :
- One from the beginning of trend (26 of Jan)
- Ne from the beginning of impulse move (8 of Feb)
- If we look at the 50 levels of both we will see most pullbacks was already done – but I emphasize the word – MOST – because I think we can get in at a cheaper price on the stock around 0.0032 – that doesn’t mean the pullback will go directly to that level but as we always remind our union traders – patience is in order! so we can see accumulation with a bit of a rise but buying power is getting weaker and who knows if we are also seeing inside buys -which can be reasonable.
4. So what’s next? FDGT will wait on a pullback and for the hype to slightly calm down because we are looking at a lot of new traders in the stock at the moment – which means they can be easily shaken off by drops of price – we will wait to see if we can get the asset on the lows of 0.0032.
5. Given the catalyst of the trial I would suggest easing into the trade with small orders and buying dips till we see the interest peaking again to the higher levels and to start dumping out shares above the 0.007 price. that doesn’t mean our price target is 0.007 but our first stop on taking profits and we need to monitor volumes to see if the hype is getting bigger or smaller to know when is our next stage.
If you want me to cover the next stage just comment here and we will follow up if there is demand.
Let's just quickly cover volumes – so we understand what to look for as a comparison in the upcoming moves :
Avg volume 3 months: 6B
Last month volume : 13.5B (average)
Last week: 20B ( mostly sell volume)
Target volume for future moves: above 10B but must be a buying volume! currently not the case.
3 things worth noting here as the pessimistic view :
1. PM has probably the best lawyers in the world!
2. this trial can go on for years if PM will not offer a settlement!
3. the cost of running a trial for so long will cost Healthier Choices (HCMC) a LOT of money in a court battle!
just keep those points in mind.
Trade safe and be safe – the traders union is here for you!
HCMC Can we see this run between now and February 26th?Thoughts,
I'll be setting my stop loss at 0.0012 because the hype train could die out between now and the lawsuit. Making a couple hundred out of an initial investment of 50 bucks is fine by me lol.
0.5-1$ is a nice target but realistically take my profit if it hits 0.005$ which is definitely possible.
RSI seems to be strong but might take a dip in a week or two if they postpone the case.
Anyways R/R ratio is insane so we can all sleep well at night.
A cool company nonetheless ;)
(Not financial advice, just my Opinion)
HCMC upwards trendAlongside with incredible fundamentals there is now some sold technicals to compliment.
$MEGH $2.50 in 1997 ATH Now Reinstated/Registered PT $1.50-$3.50$MEGH Has been reinstated and registered with the state of Colorado for the first time in many years. Rhonda Keaveney of Small Cap Compliance has taken over custody of it and judging by how fast they are moving to get it Pink Current after receiving custodianship I wouldn't be surprised if this is the first of their Custodians that they will attempt to bring in a Reverse Merger candidate.
It has the perfect share structure for one and a very appealing past. With no R/S's no major events or A/S increases. The S/S has remained the same for decades.
I anticipate a $CATC type move here or possibly much higher as $MEGH has a slightly smaller S/S of 50 Mil A/S 49 Mil O/S 25 Mil of which are restricted and a 11 Mil Float.
$CATC went to $1.50 We can do a lot more IMO
PT $1.50-$3.50
investorshub.advfn.com
investorshub.advfn.com
HCMC Healthier Choices Management Corp. 10x reason?Healthier Choices Management Corp. provides e-liquids, vaporizers, and related products.
94.6M MARKET CAP
Healthier Choices Management Corp. announced the filing of its patent infringement lawsuit against Philip Morris USA, Inc. and Philip Morris Products S.A. in connection with their product known and marketed as “IQOS®.”
HCMC’s lawsuit includes claims that Phillip Morris is infringing HCMC’s patent rights in connection with IQOS®, an alternative tobacco product marketed and sold by Phillip Morris. Philip Morris claims that it is currently approaching 14 million users of its IQOS® product and has reportedly invested over $3 billion in their smokeless tobacco products. (globenewswire.com)
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