HD
HD(Home Depot): All parabolic movements must come to an end What goes up, must come down. While this is not always true in this world, it's much more likely than not that a parabolic movement will eventually see a sharp, then lengthy, dwindling correction before it continues upward. This may seem like a crazy chart, but there are some unavoidable signs that the housing market is slowing down. Some experts are now predicting we may see some recession in 2020. Home Depot is a leading indicator of the hosuing market dropping off. Looking at the facts, Home Depot has increased its value 1186% since the market crash in 2009. To assume there will be no correction for this parabolic move will be foolish. The question is, when, and at what price? I think we may be reaching a top, if we have not already around $219. RSI has been moving bearishly against the price action on the monthly chart and is now in a nuetral/bearish range for the first time in nearly a decade. As of now we are still producing higher highs, but we did show one lower low. I believe if the next upward movement doesn't show a higher high (above $219.30) we might be at the peak and ready for some correction. This could easily bring price all the way down to the .5 FIB of its parabolic movement, or around $118.
Am I suggesting you short Home Depot? Only if you're crazy. I like doing something out of the box once in a while though, so I'm going to play a small bag just for the sake of technical analysis.
Daily HD forecast timing analysis by Supply-Demand strength21-Jun
Stock investing strategies
Investing position about Supply-Demand(S&D) strength: In Rising section of high profit & low risk
Supply-Demand(S&D) strength Trend Analysis: In the midst of an adjustment trend of downward direction box pattern price flow marked by limited rises and downward fluctuations.
Today's S&D strength Flow: Supply-Demand strength has changed from a strong buying flow to a suddenly strengthening selling flow.
View a Forecast Candlestick Chart Analysis of 10 days in the future: www.pretiming.com
(You can easily create a trading plan.)
D+1 Candlestick Color forecast: GREEN Candlestick
%D+1 Range forecast: 0.3% (HIGH) ~ -0.5% (LOW), 0.1% (CLOSE)
%AVG in case of rising: 1.3% (HIGH) ~ -0.5% (LOW), 1.0% (CLOSE)
%AVG in case of falling: 0.6% (HIGH) ~ -1.1% (LOW), -0.4% (CLOSE)
Price Forecast Timing Criteria: Price forecast timing is analyzed based on pretiming algorithm of Supply-Demand(S&D) strength.
THE WEEK AHEAD: HD, HPQ EARNINGS; ASHR, GDXJ, EEM PREMIUMEARNINGS:
HD (33/24) announces earnings on Tuesday before market open; HPQ (68/38), Thursday after market close.
Although the rank/implied metrics are less than stellar, pictured here is an HD June 21st 180/185/200/205 iron condor paying 2.13 (1.06 at 50 max), expected move break evens, and delta/theta metrics of -2.22/2.96.
Alternative Trades:
June 21st 180/205 short strangle, 2.48 credit (1.24 at 50 max), one standard deviation move break evens, 4.33/9.35 delta/theta metrics.
HPQ is a bit hard to work with given its size, which imply that the only way you'll get paid to play is via short straddle. The June 21st 19 is paying 1.60 (.40 at 25 max), with expected move break evens and delta/theta metrics of -5.00/2.23.
Alternative Trades:
June 21st 18 short put (bullish assumption; potential acquisition play), .45 credit, 29.78 delta, cost basis of 17.55 if assigned (a 7.9% discount over where the stock was trading at Friday close).
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SORTED BY RANK/IMPLIED
Top 5 By Rank: ASHR (57/30), GDXJ (50/28), EEM (41/21), GDX (40/34), SMH (37/29).
Top 5 By Implied: OIH (34/34), EWZ (27/34), XOP (22/31), XBI (35/31), ASHR (57/30).
We're a bit close in time for June setups (33 days) and a bit far out for July (61), so would probably wait until the July monthly is closer in time in the absence of absolutely desperation to pile on theta to burn ... .
all Time Highest plus resitance level 3 times, RSI div SHORT ???August 20th, Agust 27th, sept 04th and today May 02,,,, higest levels ($46.14) ..... plus RSI with divergence signals.... price very volatile to break finally $46... straggle to make 14 cents over $46.. Besides construction side are every week less and less... great performance but i believe this stock usually goes with the same flow then the market... but today (market goimg down and the stock keep performance) that only happen when is about to drop. I dont bother getting $47.50 put options... I may go with OTM $45. IF IT BREAKS $46.15 then it may go up to $48.
HD: Bottom breakout, support to sustain gains ahead of earningsHD broke out and above the short term resistance levels of a bottom completion area. This bottom is an intermediate-term bottom formation. The breakout has support to sustain the gains and is occurring ahead of the earnings season which provides potential for a pre-earnings run which tend to be fueled by pro traders, who provide sustainable momentum runs.
$HD Home Depot Golden Cross - Bullish Options Activity$HD Home Depot - Golden cross on the daily chart appears imminent (50d/200d crossover). Forming bullish channel that began with the Xmas eve bottom. Monitor for breakout above $185 for confirmation.
Unusual bullish options activity - Over 16k $110.00 strike Jan'2020 calls traded today for total premium of $120M. These are deep in-the-money, expensive contracts trading for over $7k a piece.
Medium term target - $205.00-$210.00 range by late April
Note: Informational, not investment advice.
Best area to look for support on Spy Expect a nice bounce at 200-215 ,from previous chart pattern history it was a really tough resistance area,so expect whales to look for a bounce at that area,
if we do break 200,I expect us to enter Re Distribution zone and our target can be Accumulation zone on the Weekly chart 166 area.
HD: Earnings Stock of the DayAlways a late reporting company, HD reported today before the market opened. HFTs were ready to gap the stock in the direction the algos perceived earnings. The chart patterns were setting up for a negative reaction. The stock is in the lower area of its trading range that has similarities to the S&P500 index chart's trading range pattern. Flow of Funds indicators show heavier than normal outflow of money from this stock. That means selling is rotation or distribution by Dark Pools.
NCI Constructively forming handle base at 15.75 after 6-7w cupNCS
NCI is a near $2B business, which just merged with Ply Gem Corp. also $2B business forming larger construction and engineered products business
* Forming handle in likely break from Fibretrace 0.786 at $15.75 to $17.00 indicating break-out
* Drop to 14.10 not likely as relative strength and sales growth in construction and housing products after Hurricane Florence
* Fibretracement to 0.612 and 0.5 is 8 and 13% gain, however construction stocks grow on calender until Jan-Feb.
* Cup & handle formed once return to retrace 0.612 of $17.00 handle will be formed and NCS will jump to 18.75, 19.80 (+25%), 21.55 or 23 range nearing 52w high (23.35) based on typical resistance zones.
* Hurricane Florence will inpact Q3-4 sales. August earnings were 0.07 suprise at 0.54 from 0.47 expectations.
* No dividend and slight selling with insiders. Looking for 20% target here with handle form, and 25% entry now.
HD LOW