HD
Is This Bullish or Bearish? Remember that narratives will be constructed every day in financial media based on emotions. The problem with this strategy is that they have already happened! It has already shown up on the chart. So today, we are going to look at one of the most important intermarket relationships. That is Consumer Discretionary vs Consumer Staples, or XLY/XLP. Let’s hop onto the chart.
So what are we seeing here? Well the first thing that should catch your eye is the all time high. We love all time highs! They are bullish. When XLY is outperforming XLP on a relative basis, this is a “risk on” environment. The other thing we see is the overall bullish trend of higher highs and higher lows.
Then we see the bearish divergence. Some people tend to think that a bearish divergence will cause a trend change, but when the overall trend is bullish, we have to remember that these usually just produce pullbacks and then the trend continues. So while this chart is bullish, we can wait and watch while the higher low forms. When the higher low forms, that is confirmation the "risk on" environment is alive and well.
Keep this relationship in you back pocket. It is a great one to help you navigate the narratives of “the consumer is in bad shape”. If XLY is outperforming, the market is telling you otherwise. We would rather listen to the market than someone on CNBC.
Happy Trading!
Short on open: 272.18 or higher
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The Ingenuity Trading Model is a Geometric Hidden Markov Model with specific inputs related to Price, Time, Volume, and Volatility.
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Home Depot - Potential for break outHome Depot is currently trading near its 21 day EMA. Bulls will need Home Depot will to push through the 21 day EMA resistance level to take the stock up to its recent high. Although we see a double bottom, which is known to be a bullish reversal pattern, please be aware that this chart can also be interpreted as seeing a simple price consolidation pattern, such as a wedge or triangle pattern. We will be monitoring Home Depot this week to see if it breaks above the 21 EMA.
Home Depot pulls back to the 13 EMAHome Depot ( NYSE:HD ) is pulling back along with the Dow today and is finding support at the 13 Day EMA as shown on the chart above. Could this be a pullback trade? I would like to think so, but as the SPY soars to new highs, we continue to be in an overextended market. I think Home Depot has the potential to continue higher provided that the SPY or DOW doesn't sell off. Even though SPY is made up of many other companies that have nothing to do with Home Depot, there is still market risk (also known as beta risk, systematic risk, undiversifiable risk) which is the risk that the stock will move along with the broader market.
I will continue to monitor Home Depot to see if today's idea was a bullish pullback trade.
$HD Home Depot - Over Extended Heading Into Earnings$HD Home Depot - Over Extended Heading Into Earnings
Earnings this week before the open on Tuesday. Stock looks to be running out of gas after essentially doubling off the March lows. This has the potential for a "sell the news" post-earnings sell off.
P/E ratio currently sitting at around 28x - its highest level ever. The only other time it was ever over 25x was in January 2018 when it was about 27x. This was followed by about a -15% correction over the next couple months.
Medium term target: $250-$260 range by Oct
Note: Not investment advice.