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HD: Still in an uptrend, but large correction loomingI know this sounds crazy, but I have been eyeballing HD for potential Short for a bit. Home Depot is a leading indicator that the economy or housing market is taking a turn. If we see the economy and housing market pull back near the end of 2020 as many predict, we could see a correction all the way down to its larger, ascending support, all the way down to the $180-185 range. Here's how it may turn out... forgive my cool arrow art. We are currently in a short term uptrend, howver, the current support line has broken through. This could simply be a throw under as we have bullish divergence on the daily and the FIBs show a nice rebound zone here. I think we may see home depot pop back up again temporarliy. However, if we do not establish a higher high, or hit the same high as before and start a double top pattern, we could be in for a ride down to the major support line.
NYSE:HD
by infbp22
HD Long PositionPotential long entry for HD is in the works. The stock has seen a recent drop due to the latest earnings report. After losing ~10% due to the negative market reaction, there may be an opportunity to go long. I've taken note of the following: - Approaching 200MA which can serve as support - Chart is currently along the lower bollinger band - Stochastic indicator is under 20; if it curls upward over 20 this can be a bullish sign - RSI is oversold @ 30 I'll be keeping my eyes on this to see if there is a partial reversal in store
NYSE:HDLong
by GGfx
HD - bulls need to hold the lineI reviewed this chart the other day, I liked the volume and the trend line confirmation (3 touches). But with the v-rally selling off by about 50% I have my guard up. We're seeing continuously high volume here, higher than the previous visits to the trend-line. I'm not quite bearish here. But I wouldn't advise a swing entry until we revisit the trend line and prove we can hold it. We closed Friday near low of day, which leads me to believe we'll visit the trend-line either Monday or Tuesday. If we can hold that level I still like the risk reward. My line in the sand is a close below $216.88
NYSE:HD
by danbeaulieu
THE WEEK AHEAD: HD, LOW, TGT, GPS, M EARNINGS; /NG, VIX, VXXEARNINGS: HD (24/21) (Tuesday Before Market) LOW (68/35) (Wednesday Before Market) TGT (66/37) (Wednesday Before Market) GPS (60/53) (Thursday After Market) M (97/67) (Thursday Before Market) Pictured here is an M short straddle at the 17 strike in the December cycle, paying 2.73 with 14/72/19.73 break evens, and delta/theta metrics of -4.49/3.77. Look to put on a play on Wednesday before the end of the New York session. In second place for ideal volatility contraction metrics is GPS (60/53). As with M, I would short straddle here, with the December 20th 18 paying 2.22 with 15/78/20.22 break evens, and delta/theta metrics of 1.29/3.06. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS: TLT (42/12) EEM (40/17) SLV (29/20) EWZ (26/27) FXI (26/19) ... with the first expiry in which the at-the-money short straddle pays more than 10% of the value of the underlying: TLT, January '21; EEM, June; SLV, July; EWZ, March; and FXI, May. Both the rank/implied metrics, as well as the short straddle value metric indicate that it's probably a good time to hand sit on selling shorter duration premium here. BROAD MARKET: With VIX finishing the week at 12.05, volatility is at or near 52 week lows here in all the majors: SPY's in the 6th percentile; IWM in the 4th; and QQQ at 0. The first expiry in which the at-the money short straddle pays greater than 10% of the value of the underlying: SPY, Sept; IWM, June; and QQQ, June. Both the rank/implied metrics, as well as the short straddle value metric indicate that it's probably a good time to hand sit on selling shorter duration premium here. FUTURES: /6B (63/11) /NG (40/59) /ZS (30/20) /SI (29/19) /CL (24/33) As I may have mentioned last week, it's no surprise that /NG volatility is frisking up here. Generally, I play natty for seasonality, so look to get in with something bullish assumption at seasonal lows/peak injection, bail out of the long delta position in January or February depending on how Mother Nature feels, and then look to ride the elevator down in the opposite direction with a short delta position. I'm not keen on selling nondirectional premium (e.g., iron condors), particularly given what natty did last winter, so am sticking with my traditional, no-nonsense seasonality play. Another item of note: GVX (gold volatility) has dropped substantially here, finishing the week at 11.22, in the 23rd percentile for the year ... . VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES: As previously mentioned, VIX closed the week at near 2019 lows (12.05), with the December, January, and February /VX contracts trading at 15.09, 16.60, and 17.50, respectively. Consequently, VIX term structure trades are still viable in the January and February expiries, but would probably beg off a December setup in the absence of a pop that runs that contract up to >16; the 16 strike is generally the lowest I will go with the short option leg of a VIX term structure trade. As far as derivatives are concerned, this definitely isn't the place to be adding shorts. While it may be that VIX hangs out at these levels for a lengthy period of time, shorts are most productive on VIX pops -- not at VIX lows, even if contango and beta slippage are really working in shorts' favor here. As we all know, both the current steep contango and low VIX levels can evaporate in a heartbeat. If anything, this may be one of the rare occasions to consider a small bullish assumption trade (e.g., a VXX December 20th 15/17/17/19 "Super Bull,"* paying a .20 credit, with max profit/loss metrics of 2.20/1.80 and a break even of 16.80 versus the 17.40 where VXX is currently trading). * -- A 15/17 short put vertical combined with a 17/19 long call vertical.
NYSE:M
by NaughtyPines
3
Home Depot downgraded from 'buy' to 'neutral' Home Depot was downgraded ... it's already down about 1.3% pre-market. Looking at the 4 hour chart, HD has been in an ascending channel since December of last year. It recently bounced off channel resistance, and this downgrade might cause it to fall to channel support. In addition to the channel, notice that the RSI is overbought. Combine all that with the downgrade, and this might be a good shorting opportunity. I may purchase a couple put options and ride them down for a week or two.
NYSE:HDShort
by Bankuur
4