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Bitcoin possibly returning to <5000$ (short term)Bitcoin seems to form a pretty clear "complex Head and Shoulders" as tought by John Murphy in his book "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets", one of the foundations in education of technical analysis. As Bitcoin was not able to set a new high, we may now see the start of a correction initiated by exactly that head and shoulders. The decreasing volume from peak to peak (left shoulder highest volume, head less volume, right shoulder least volume) strenghtens this idea. A significant break (1h-candle closing more than 1% under the neckline, increased volume) through the neckline would confirm the h&s and indicate that the price is aiming at <5000$ (pink arrow projecting down the distance head-neckline from neckline as tought by John J Murphy). After breaking the neck, a return to this specific line would be likely before further downward movement. If this happens, I'll open a short position with a tight stop above the neckline which should work as a resistance at this point. As we are still in a strong long term uptrend, Bitcoin breaking through this new resistance is not unlikely. This may be a pretty risky trade, so I'm only going to open a small position and, as I already mentioned, keep my stop tight. Beyond technical analysis there seems to be a lot of disapointment because of Bitcoin Gold and the connected "free money" (even though something like that does not exist, the market always rebalances). At least I personally am reading a lot of negative comments and nearly no positive feedback. As this was one of the reasons for Bitcoin reaching approximately 6200$ I feel like Segwit2x will not be able to push the price any further and a correction is about to take place (MACD and stochastic RSI on daily basis affirm this statement, unfortunately I was not able to add them up there). After all, everything that goes up has to come down (before moving up even further :) ). Please keep in mind that I am by no means an expert and this should not be considered investment advice. To be even more clear, I'm in the game for only a few month and this is my first public analysis. So don't be afraid to give me some constructive feedback, I'll be thankfull about that.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by HFBN
6
Counterparty: bounce incoming!Counterparty has started to bounce off a horizontal supportline, that has been visited 4 times now on the daily candles. One could argue that this graph is also showing "the lately so often seen failed shoulder-head-shoulder" pattern that I was reffering to in my Zcash idea (www.tradingview.com), but I am not liking the shape of this one (especially the shape of the head). The previous three support-touches (on the green horizontal line) resulted in a lower RSI reading (3 red ovals). But the latest touch has given us a higher RSI-reading (green line in RSI), so we have some bullish divergence. I expect the bounce to go towards 0.004 region, with maybe some hesitation around 0.0032 area (two red horizontal resistance areas).
X
by yuri72
5
BTCUSD H+S pattern, bearish div., 1 HR chartIf we look at this cart we see a couple of trends. Overall, we see an upward movement, to a peak around $4400. As we look at a volume indicator, the RSI, we notice the the very highest peak had lower volume than the peak before it, leading to what is called a bearish divergence, drawn by the red arrow over the bottom indicator. After this there was large volume sell off down to below 4000. This movement dropped below the MA 50 line. We now find a price hovering between MA 50 and MA 100. Looking on different charts, we see the bearish divergence on the 4HR chart, and the 1D chart. So we should expect the market to turn slightly. On the 1 hour chart, we start to see a head and shoulders formation, with this 3rd rise in price relating to the 2nd shoulder, after the head. The price went all the way down to the neck line, and rose back up again. With a bearish divergence already in place, this would seem to point to the possibility, that this 3rd rise could lead to a downtrend. If price reaches 3900, we must watch closely. 2 possibilities, the market could react and strong volume could prove resuming the bullish market (most likely). Or, the price does not bounce off this mark, which triggers a sell off. The amount of loss, will be the same amount of gain realized from the neck line to the top of the head *vertical arrow up" / vs the corresponding "vertical arrow down". Just a thought, the market has been unstoppable in the upward direction, and we might be in for a minor correction. Let me know your thoughts/ what you see!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Shwayze