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Head_and_shoulder

Gold Bullish only after thisThe gold price has broken and remained above the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern at 1805, but there is a lack of momentum, as indicated by the RSI indicator, which shows divergence at the daily time frame. That makes sense when it's almost touching a monthly trend line from March 2021, I expect the scenario to go longer to reach the trendline and then bounce back to the neckline level at 1805, then reaches for a liquidity hunt down at 1790, then shoot back up to 1870, where a supply zone and resistance will be waiting. Otherwise, if the price continues to fall below the neckline with high momentum, 1734 will be the next target. ---------------------- Let me know your thoughts in the comments, and show your support by liking the idea. Please follow if you're interested in more ideas like this. Your support is greatly appreciated!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Candlestick_OB
3
HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN - TRADING GUIDE Head and Shoulders pattern This lesson will cover the following What is a “Head and Shoulders” formation? How can it be confirmed? How can it be traded? The Head and Shoulders pattern forms after an uptrend, and if confirmed, marks a trend reversal. The opposite pattern, the Inverse Head and Shoulders, therefore forms after a downtrend and marks the end of the downward price movement. As you can guess by its name, the Head and Shoulders pattern consists of three peaks – a left shoulder, a head, and a right shoulder. The head should be the highest and the two shoulders should be at least relatively of equal height. As the price corrects from each peak, the lows retreat to form the so-called neckline, which is later used for confirming the pattern. Here is what an H&S pattern looks like. Other key elements of this pattern and its trade process are the breakouts, protective stops, profit target, and volume, which is used as an additional tool to confirm the trend reversal. So here is how you identify the Head and Shoulders pattern and how its individual components are characterized. Formation and confirmation In order to have a trend reversal pattern, you definitely need a trending market. Let's talk about the first model of H&S, the Inverse or Reversal will have the same methodology but exactly in the opposite way. While prices are trending up, our future patterns left shoulder forms as a peak, which marks the high of the current trend. For the shoulder to be formed, the price then needs to correct down, retreating to a low, which is usually above or at the trend line, thus, keeping the uptrend still in force. This low marks the first point used to determine where the neckline stands. Afterward, a new higher peak begins to form, stemming from the left shoulder low, which is our pattern head. As the market makes a higher high (the head), it then corrects back and usually, this is the point where the upward trend is penetrated, thus signaling a shift in momentum and a possible Head and Shoulders pattern. The second low that is touched after the retreat from the heads peak is the other point used to build the neckline, which is basically a line drawn through the two lows. The subsequent rebound from the second low forms the third peak – the right shoulder. It should be lower than the head and overall match the height of the left shoulder (keep in mind that exact matches rarely occur). It is also preferable that the two shoulders have required relatively the same amount of time to form as this would make the pattern stronger. In order for the Head and Shoulders pattern to be confirmed, the retreat from the third peak (the right shoulder) should penetrate the neckline and a candle should close below it. The neckline itself should be horizontal in the perfect case scenario, but that rarely happens. Instead, most often it is sloping up or down and that is of significance as well – a downward-sloping neckline is more bearish than an upward-sloping one. Volume As mentioned above, volume plays a key role as a confirmation tool and can be measured via indicators or by just analyzing its levels. Presumably, volume during the left shoulder advance should be higher than during the subsequent one, because as the head hits a higher high on the base of declining volume, this serves as an early signal for a possible reverse. This, however, does not happen every time. The next step of confirmation comes when volume increases during the decline from the head's peak and the last nail in the coffin are when volume gains further during the right shoulder's decline. Trading the pattern, stops and profit targets We said earlier that the Head and Shoulders pattern is deemed confirmed if the right shoulder's decline penetrates through the neckline and a candle closes below it. As soon as that happens and you are reassured that it is not a false breakout, you can enter into a short position. However, as you already know, no trading decisions should be made on the go, i.e. you need to have predetermined where your protective stop is going to stand and what your profit target is. Protective stop There are two common places where you can place your stop loss. The first one, which is more conservative, is right above the peak of the head, while a more standard position is right beyond the right shoulder. You can see those visualized in the following screenshot. The second option makes more sense because if the breakout through the neckline actually fails and the price rebounds back with such momentum that it rises beyond the right shoulder, then the whole pattern is flawed and you definitely do not need to wait for it to exceed the head as well. Besides, such a loose stop significantly increases the risk and reduces the risk/reward ratio, thus, reducing this pattern's trading appeal. Profit target The most common and often advised profit target is the distance (number of pips) between the head's peak and the neckline. Having estimated that distance, you then need to subtract it from the neckline, just like in the screenshot below. And how does that translate in terms of risk/reward ratio? If the breakout confirmation (the close beyond the neckline) appears very close to the neckline itself, and we enter into a short position there, we generally have a 1:1 risk-to-reward proportion, if we use a conservative protective stop. Why? Since our profit target is the distance between the heads peak and the neckline, if we decide to use the conservative option for a protective stop, then we will have the same distance as a loss limit, thus, reducing our risk-to-reward ratio to 1:1. This is why, in order to improve that ratio, most experienced traders place their protective stops more often above the right shoulders peak, given that they use the head-to-neckline profit target. However, keep in mind that this price distance should serve as a rough target, because things are usually not that straightforward and other factors such as previous support levels, crossing mid-term and long-term moving averages, etc. must be taken into consideration as well. Two ways to trade the Head and Shoulders Pattern There are generally two ways to trade this pattern, depending on how it plays out. The first one we've already mentioned. As soon as a candle closes below the neckline as a sign of confirmation, you enter into a short position with the respective profit target and protective stop described above. Now for the second way to trade the H&S formation. In this case, we have a pullback after the neckline penetration, which, once support, now acts as a resistance level. This time we need to go short once the price pulls back and tests the neckline as resistance. As soon as it rebounds from the neckline, we enter into a short position, using the same principle for placing the protective stop and aiming for the same profit as in the first scenario. Here is what this would look like.
Education
by FOREXN1
1
Forget about chart patterns! Hello, my dear friends and happy New Year! I wish you to be healthy and reach all your goals in trading and not only! Never give up on this difficult way which we are going to overcome together! Today we have a very important topic. How to use Elliott waves instead of classical chart patterns. This is the natural exposure why the chart patterns are garbage. I remember my third year at university when we have the trading lessons. Our teacher gave us a lot of useless knowledges about support, resistance and chart patterns. I have not understood why it should working and it was not soo intereting subject for me. That’s why I returned back to trading much later using self-education. Now I have the clear understanding why Elliott waves is the best tool and why it’s working. Most of traders even don’t understand that chart patterns is just the special case of Elliott waves. That’s why today I decided to explain you how you can change the first one to the second one. Let’s go! Double Top(Bottom) On the chart above I drew the different types of double tops. Generally we have 3 types of this pattern Double top with the second top higher than the first one. In this case we can interpret it in two ways. It could be the classical waves 3, 4, 5 and the corrective wave A at the ending stage. In this case we can anticipate waves B and C. Also it could be the irregular correcton ABC inside wave 4 (rarely in wave 2). In this case we should wait for the wave 5 after that. Traders usually execute short position on the neckline breakdown and suffer when the wave 5 smashed their stop-loss. They are wondering why double top does not working. Double top with the equal highs has the same possible outcomes. The only one difference that correction called flat instead of irregular. Double top with the second top lower than the first one. Here is the most common variant is the end of the ABC correction. In this case we have the low potential for shorting the market becuase the new impulsive wave to the upside can hit all stop losses. Head & Shoulders This is the easiest pattern for analysis. The right sholder usually is the wave 4, the head, obviously is the wave 5 and the right shoulder is the wave B. On the neckline breakdown we have the shorting potential only in the rest part of the wave C. You could correctly count waves and short that the bearish reversal bar of the wave 5 or, as a last resort, at wave B potential top. Shorting at the neckline has sence only if you are sure that the wave B was the the wave 1 of the impulsive wave to the downside if higher degree and now the market is in wave 3. We have to learn how to count waves in a correct way. I would recommend you to read the Trading Chaos book by Bill Williams because it has the best explanation how do waves work. Triangles and Wedges This part is common for all types of triangles (ascending, descending, symmetrical) and wedges (falling and rising). This patterns have the similar structure. If we faced with one of these patterns we have 4 possible scenarios. Triangle in the downtrend after the wave 3. In this case triangle is the wave 4, which is represented as the triangle correction. This correction type consists of 5 waves A, B, C, D and E. When the wave E is finished market will continue it’s move in the direction of a trend, printing the wave 5. The same, but in the uptrend. When the market showed us the 5 waves cycle to the upside and the correction is in progress. Triangle can appears in the wave B. In this case the price will continue the corrective move in the wave C after it’s finished. The same with the downtrend. Guys, of course there are much more types of chart patterns. For example, tripple tops and bottoms and so on. The purpose of this article is giving you another view of the market structure and to motivate you studying the Elliott waves theory. Believe me, it has much more potential than it seems on the first glimplse. Best regards, Ivan ________________________________________________________________________________________________ If you like my educational ideas, please smash the boost button to stimulate me make more quality articles!
Education
by Skyrexio
Head & Shoulders Top Completed, USO/SPXAccording to TA rules, the ratio has completed the pattern with a Complex Right Shoulder (two peaks). Those these means that the SP:SPX should breakout from that downward trendline? I don't know, but probably. Or those it means that energy stocks should finally follow oil prices? Maybe, it is what normally had happend. What I'm seeing is more stocks going up, even though some breakouts aren't working as smooth as it should. Nontheless, I just follow price. This ratio is just another indicator, let's wait and see what happens.
AMEX:USO
by dpuleo19
2
EDU: BOTTOMING PATTERN & GAP FILL PLAYEDU ( Chinese stock ): I'm bullish Chinese stocks in general but I really do like the look of EDU. A few reasons to keep a good look on EDU: - price is now above all the moving averages on the daily chart; - price is getting back above the Ichimoku cloud; - there is a huge gap between $29.70 and $57.34; - the weekly chart chart has the look of an inverted head and shoulders (but not really perfect). Has EDU found a bottom? It looks like it. Can we fill that gap? Not sure. However the chart looks promising. The next resistance is at 29.70. If we cross 29.70 I would expect the price to accelerate to the next resistance of 50.27, then potentially fill the gap. If we see weakness in the coming days, the next supports are at 24 and 22. I would wait for the price to cross 29.70 before initiating a long position. My 1st target will then be around 50, my second target will be at 57. Trade safe! (This is no financial advice. Technical analysis is given to help you make your own decision. As always place a stop loss when you enter the position, and do not ignore risks of delisting for Chinese ADRs).
NYSE:EDULong
by Elpidaldo
2