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Headandshouldersformation

Mega Cap Tech Setting a Head & Shoulders – Breadth Collapse IncoICEUS:NYFANG (FANG+) is showing a textbook Head & Shoulders pattern — Left Shoulder, Head, and a freshly printed Right Shoulder. The setup becomes even more concerning when you combine it with the Nasdaq Oscillator, which just printed an identical spike to the one that marked the 2024 top. 🧠 Here's the backdrop: Netflix, Meta, Google, and Microsoft have already had their post-earnings moonshots. Tonight it’s Amazon and Apple — the last two horses in the race (Nvidia is still weeks away). Breadth is collapsing — this rally is being carried by fewer and fewer names. 📉 Breakdown below the neckline could mean: 🔻 –25% correction (minimum) 🚨 Potential –50% wipeout if the neckline fails
ICEUS:NYFANGShort
by SmartSignalss
No shampoo in sight.....and an $11k Nasdaq?This posts presents an idea that has no precedence (that I can recall at least), so this is by definition a crazy idea BUT the chart is showing signs of extreme exhaustion and is possibly and quite frankly on the verge of a potentially destructive collapse. If the recent severe volatility hasn't peaked your attention... this chart should. It's quite simple...we have a MONSTER Head and Shoulders pattern on the Weekly TF...and we're finishing off the Right Shoulder! From a chart pattern perspective, this is ultra-ultra bearish. The confluence we have is the Elliot Wave showing the we could be about to enter Wave 5. Elliot Waves are of course subjective BUT in this case its syncs with the Head and Shoulders. If this was a 15min chart, most would probably agree hands down, but this is a Weekly Chart and represents Trillions on Trillions so its hard to believe that this could even be a possibility.....but I believe it could happen! The horizontal blue lines provide 2024's High and Low Price. For this disaster scenario to be avoided, the Bulls and anyone who cares must defend 2024's low around 16100. This must not be breached, to keep the 12M bullish structure in place. The green shaded areas highlight all of the Buy Side fair value gaps on the WEEKLY TF going back to early January 2023! Could the market dive for these in devastating fashion? Only time will tell. In the interim, we should trade safe and manage risk as best as we can.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by TheTradeBorough
XRP - Time to buy again!The pattern has broken, and now I expect the price to rise to $3 . AB=CD. Give me some energy !! ✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us. Best regards CobraVanguard.💚 _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟! ⚠️Things can change... The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
Long
by CobraVanguard
Gold can break support level and continue to declineHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. For a while, Gold was confidently moving within an upward channel, with each impulse supported by rebounds from the lower boundary. After breaking out of the buyer zone, the price made a strong bullish move, supported by momentum and healthy corrections. This movement continued up to the current support level at 3285, where the price began to stall. Then, a classic Head and Shoulders pattern has now fully formed. The left shoulder, head, and right shoulder are all visible and aligned with the support area, which now acts as the neckline of the pattern. This isn't random, it's a well-defined reversal signal forming after an extended bullish leg. The rejection from the right shoulder shows evident seller control, and the price is now testing the neckline from below. The support area has already been broken once, and any bounce from here appears corrective rather than impulsive. Given this setup, I expect that price can fully breakdown toward the 3060 level, which acts as both a strong historical support and my TP1. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by LegionQ8
11
THETA at Rock Bottom? The Bounce Could Be LegendaryFor the past 136 days, THETA has been in a strong downtrend, shedding an incredible -82% from its high at $3.351. Recently, it tapped into a major support level at $0.617, interesting that it's like the golden ratio 0.618. And it bounced off it beautifully. Over the last few days, we’ve seen a notable surge in volume, hinting at potential accumulation. Could this be one of the best times to scale in? It might just be. An 82% discount is no joke. 🔑 Key Levels to Watch The $1 level is the key psychological and technical resistance everyone’s eyeing. Longing from current levels to $1 offers a solid +40% gain, not bad at all. But let’s zoom out and get the bigger picture with some Fibonacci levels. Using Fib retracement on the full 136-day move down: 0.236 Fib = $1.252 → Approx. +75% from current price 0.382 Fib = $1.653 → Roughly +135% gain These are solid mid- to long-term upside targets if bullish momentum builds. 📈 Trade Setup & R:R Invalidation: Current low at $0.600 Monthly Open: $0.804. Reclaiming and flipping this level into support would be a bullish sign. Current Resistance: Around $0.71, where the anchored VWAP (yellow line) aligns with a yearly level. This needs to be broken and ideally retested as support. We might also be seeing the early formation of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. While the “head” is still developing, if this setup plays out, the target sits at $1.5. And here’s the kicker: That $1.5 region lines up with multiple higher timeframe moving averages, adding significant weight to the level: Monthly 21 EMA: $1.52 Monthly 21 SMA: $1.47 Weekly 21 SMA: $1.514 This confluence makes $1.47–$1.52 a major magnet for price and a likely take-profit or reaction zone if momentum continues. 👉 Feel free to use this indicator—just head over to my profile and under the Scripts section, add it to your favorites. Enjoy. 🎯 Risk to Reward Potential These setups have excellent R:R potentials, ranging from 3:1 to over 60:1, depending on entry, stop-loss placement, and target selection. These are the kinds of high-probability setups that traders dream of. Clean structure, strong support, major upside, and clear invalidation. If we see a breakout above $1 with strong volume, it could act as a catalyst for an even faster move toward higher Fib levels and MA targets. Didn’t want to go too deep, but this lays out a clear roadmap with levels to monitor and possibilities to consider. The rest depends on how new data unfolds in the coming weeks. As always... plan your trade, manage your risk, and let the market come to you. Keep monitoring volume, structure, and key levels. The opportunities are here, now it's about execution. ____________________________________ If you found this helpful, leave a like and comment below! Got requests for the next technical analysis? Let me know.
Long
by SiDec
4
AT&T I Tipping Point : Short Opportunity with Head & ShouldersHey traders after a previous trade trade on the hood hitting targets of 16.4%. Today I bring you NYSE:T Technical + Fundamental View Pro Tip - Breakdown below the Entry Line will be considered at Trade Initiation. (Risky Traders) R:R= 5.4 - Rest can follow entry at day close post breakdown SL above Entry Candle. - The Breakdown Below the Entry Line will confirm the head and shoulder pattern Entry Line - 26.93 Stoploss - 27.53 Target 1 - 25.59 (Neckline of head and shoulder) Target 2 - 24.74 Target 3 - 23.68 Technical View - Head And Shoulder on Daily Time frame - On the hourly timeframe, the chart looks weak, showing a potential double top pattern where the second peak is lower than the first, indicating growing investor fear. Fundamental View - High Debt: Over $140 billion in debt limits investment capacity and consumes significant cash flow. - Network Issues: Poor service quality and outages risk losing customers to competitors. - Strong Competition : T-Mobile and Verizon offer better plans, making customer retention harder. - Market Saturation: The U.S. wireless market is nearly saturated, limiting new customer growth. - Execution Risks: Growth and debt reduction depend on flawless asset sales and network upgrades; delays could harm finances and stock performance. Additional Considerations - AT&T’s valuation is higher than some peers, potentially capping upside. - Telecom market competitiveness means growth hinges on successful 5G and fiber rollouts. - Dividend yield (~3.9%) is attractive but lower than some rivals, which may impact income investors.
NYSE:TShort
by REUBEN_EUSTACE
Do you think I'm joking ???Chart is speaking itself... Give me some energy !! ✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us. Best regards CobraVanguard.💚 _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟! ⚠️Things can change... The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
Long
by CobraVanguard
Head and Shoulders Pattern: Advanced Analysis for Beginners█ Head and Shoulders Pattern: Advanced Analysis for Beginners The Head and Shoulders pattern is one of the most widely recognized and reliable patterns in technical analysis. And today, I am going to teach you how to use it as efficiently as an experienced trader would. Learning to spot and trade this pattern can be a great asset in your tool belt —whether you’re trading stocks, forex, or cryptocurrencies. The Head and Shoulders is a well-known reversal pattern in technical analysis that signals a potential trend change. ⚪ It consists of three peaks: The Left Shoulder: A peak followed by a decline. The Head: A higher peak formed after the left shoulder, followed by a decline. The Right Shoulder: A smaller peak resembling the left shoulder, followed by another decline. When these peaks form in a specific order and the price breaks below the neckline (the line connecting the two troughs between the shoulders), it indicates a bearish reversal from an uptrend to a downtrend. █ What about Bullish reversals? Don’t worry — there's good news! Conversely, the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern forms at the bottom of a downtrend and signals a potential reversal to the upside. By recognizing the pattern early, you can position yourself for a high-probability trade with a clear entry and exit strategy. █ How to Identify a Head and Shoulders Pattern? I truly believe the best way to learn any trading strategy is to keep it simple, away from the “technical” jargon unless absolutely necessary. We’ll do the same with this strategy. Despite its varied usage, you can break it down into four simple steps: 1. Look for the Left Shoulder The first part of the pattern forms when the price rises , creating a peak. Then, it declines back down to form the trough . This creates the Left Shoulder of the pattern. Example: If the price of Bitcoin (BTC) rises from $85,000 to $90,000, and then declines to $87,500. This is your Left Shoulder. 2. Spot the Head The second part of the pattern is the Head . After the Left Shoulder, the price rises again , but this time, it forms a higher peak than the Left Shoulder. The price then declines again, creating a second trough . Example: Continuing with Bitcoin, after the price dropped to $87,500, it rises to a new high of $95,000 before dropping back to around $90,000. This $95,000 peak is the Head, which is higher than the Left Shoulder. 3. Find the Right Shoulder After the decline from the Head, the price rises again, but this time, the peak should be smaller than the Head, forming the Right Shoulder . The price then starts declining again, and this is where the neckline is formed (connecting the two troughs). Example: Bitcoin then rises from $90,000 to $92,000 (lower than the $95,000 peak). This forms the Right Shoulder, and the price starts to decline from there. 4. Draw the Neckline The neckline is drawn by connecting the lows (troughs) between the Left Shoulder and the Head, and between the Head and the Right Shoulder. This is your key reference level. █ How to Trade the Head and Shoulders Pattern Once you've spotted the Head and Shoulders pattern on your chart, it’s time to trade it. And yes, it did need a separate section of its own. This is where most amateur traders mess up - the finish line. 1. Wait for the Neckline Breakout The most crucial part of the Head and Shoulders pattern is the neckline breakout . This is when the price breaks below the neckline, signaling the start of the trend reversal. Example: After the price rises to form the Right Shoulder at $92,000, Bitcoin then drops below the neckline (around $90,000). This is the confirmation that the pattern is complete. The price of BTCUSD is likely to continue downward past the 90k mark. 2. Enter the Trade Once the price breaks below the neckline, enter a short position (for a bearish Head and Shoulders pattern). This is your signal that the market is reversing from an uptrend to a downtrend. 3. Set Your Stop Loss Your stop loss should be placed just above the right shoulder for a bearish Head and Shoulders pattern . This makes sure you are protected in case the pattern fails and the price reverses back upward. Example: Place your stop loss at around $93,000 (just above the Right Shoulder at $92,000) on BTCUSD. You can also try one of these strategies I have used in the past: ⚪ Conservative Stop: Place the stop above the head (for bearish H&S) or below the head (for bullish iH&S) for maximum safety. ⚪ Aggressive Stop: Place the stop above the right shoulder (for bearish H&S) or below the right shoulder (for bullish iH&S) to reduce your stop size. ⚪ Neckline Reclaim Invalidation: Exit the trade if the price reclaims the neckline after breaking it. This could be an indication of a false positive/invalid pattern. 4. Set Your Profit Target To calculate your profit target, measure the distance from the top of the Head to the neckline and project that distance downward from the breakout point. Example: The distance from the Head at $95,000 to the neckline at $90,000 is $5,000. So, after the price breaks the neckline, project that $5,000 downward from the breakout point ($89,800), which gives you a target of $84,800. 5. Monitor the Trade We’re in the home stretch now, people. This is the 9th inning. There’s only one job left: keeping an eye on any retests or contrarian moves. As the price moves in your favor, you can scale out or move your stop loss to break even to lock in profits. █ What makes H&S strategy an all-time classic? It’s simple. It works. This pattern works because it reflects a shift in market sentiment: In a Head and Shoulders pattern , the uptrend slows down as the market struggles to make new highs, and then the price ultimately breaks down, signaling that the bulls have lost control. In an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern , the downtrend weakens as the market fails to make new lows, and the price breaks upwards, signaling a bullish reversal. ⚪ Here are a few points to remember as a cheatsheet for Head and Shoulders patterns: Wait for the neckline breakout to confirm the pattern. Set a stop loss above the right shoulder for protection. Project the price target using the height of the head for a realistic profit goal. Always monitor the trade for any signs of reversal or false breakouts. Mastering this pattern can be a game-changer for any trader, but like any tool, it’s only effective when combined with other indicators, strategies, and a solid risk management plan. ----------------- Disclaimer The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
Education
by Zeiierman
4
XRP - Choppy Market, Will We See $1.5 Again?After finishing the 5-wave structure in early 2025, XRP had a rough patch, trading between $3 and $2 and offering some pretty neat swing trade opportunities. Now, two months later, the big question is: will this range continue, or is a breakout on the horizon? Let’s break down the key levels and high-probability setups. Short Trade Setup Resistance Zone: The weekly level and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement are both around $2.5763 to $2.5792, aligning nicely with each other. The anchored VWAP from the all-time high at $3.4 adds extra resistance at about $2.63. Setup Details: A low-risk short trade can be considered at the weekly level, with a stop-loss set above both the anchored VWAP and the swing high. Target: The monthly open, aiming for an R:R of about 4:1. Support Backup: Additional support in this range comes from the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement (from a low at $1.9 to a high at $2.59), the weekly 21 SMA at $2.28, and a weekly level at $2.0942 just below the monthly open. This support between the weekly level at $2.0942 and the monthly open is crucial for maintaining bullish momentum. If it holds, the bearish short setup stands; if it breaks, things could get tricky. Long Trade Setup When to Consider a Long: If the support zone mentioned above fails, look for a long trade opportunity at the swing low around $1.77. Support Confluence: Primary Support: The swing low at $1.77, with lots of liquidity around that area. Additional Layers: The monthly level at $1.5988. The weekly level at $1.5605 sits just below the monthly. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the 5-wave structure at $1.5351. Anchored VWAP from the low at $0.3823, aligning with the weekly level. And don’t forget the psychological level at $1.5. Setup Details: This long trade setup would offer an attractive R:R of roughly 6:1, targeting back to the monthly open for an approximate 33% gain, with a stop-loss placed below the $1.5 mark. XRP's current trading range has provided some good short and long trade setups, a long opportunity at the swing low ($1.77-$1.5) could be the next big play. Whether you lean towards short or long, finding these confluence zones helps in making more informed, high-probability trade decisions. If you found it helpful, please leave a like and a comment. Happy trading!
Long
by SiDec
3
Intel - This Stock Is A Goldmine!Intel ( NASDAQ:INTC ) perfectly respects all structure: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Over the past couple of years Intel clearly established a significant downtrend, dropping about -70% after we saw the previous all time high. This bearish pressure is now ending though and if Intel manages to create a bullish reversal break and retest, a new uptrend is starting to form. Levels to watch: $25 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by basictradingtv
30
XAUUSD Head & Shoulders Breakdown – Bearish Target Ahead?This chart represents a detailed technical analysis of Gold Spot (XAU/USD) on the 1-hour timeframe with a structured trade setup based on a Head and Shoulders (H&S) reversal pattern. Below is an in-depth explanation of the chart components, price action, and trade strategy. 1️⃣ Key Chart Patterns and Analysis A. Head and Shoulders Pattern (Bearish Reversal) This is a well-known bearish reversal pattern that signals a potential trend change from bullish to bearish. It consists of three peaks: Left Shoulder: A rise followed by a temporary pullback. Head: The highest peak in the pattern, showing strong buying pressure before reversal. Right Shoulder: A smaller rise compared to the head, indicating weakening bullish momentum. B. Neckline (Support Level) and Breakdown Confirmation The neckline (horizontal support level) is drawn across the lowest points between the shoulders. A break below the neckline confirms the reversal, triggering a bearish move. The chart suggests price is at the neckline zone, preparing for a breakdown. 2️⃣ Trendline and Support/Resistance Analysis A. Uptrend Trendline Break The price was following a strong ascending trendline (dotted black line). A trendline breakout has occurred, indicating potential trend reversal. This supports the bearish bias further. B. Resistance and Support Levels Resistance Level: Marked at the top of the Head region, which aligns with previous price rejection zones. Support Levels: First support (TP1 - 3,053.269): This is the first potential take profit level. Second support (TP2 - 3,030.556): The next target if price continues downward. 3️⃣ Trade Setup & Risk Management A. Entry Point (Short Position) Sell (Short) after the neckline breakout, ensuring bearish momentum is confirmed. B. Take Profit (TP) Targets TP1: 3,053.269 (Initial support target). TP2: 3,030.556 (Stronger support zone, deeper profit target). C. Stop Loss Placement Stop Loss: 3,150.726 (Above the resistance zone). This is a logical stop-loss placement, allowing price fluctuations without prematurely stopping the trade. 4️⃣ Overall Market Sentiment & Trade Bias Bearish Bias: Due to the formation of the Head and Shoulders pattern, trendline breakout, and weakening bullish momentum. Confirmation Needed: A strong bearish close below the neckline increases probability of downward continuation. 5️⃣ Final Thought – A High-Probability Trade Setup If neckline breaks, the trade is valid with potential for a 3%+ downside move. If price holds above the neckline, the pattern may fail, leading to reconsidering trade execution. This structured risk-managed approach ensures a strategic entry, controlled risk, and maximized profit potential. 📉🔥 Let me know if you need further refinements! 🚀
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GoldMasterTrades
JPY/USD 4H Chart Analysis – Head & Shoulders Breakdown & BearishThis detailed technical analysis covers a Head & Shoulders pattern formation on the 4-hour chart of JPY/USD, highlighting a potential bearish reversal setup. The pattern suggests a shift from an uptrend to a downtrend, supported by a trendline breakdown and key resistance & support levels. 1️⃣ Understanding the Chart Pattern: Head & Shoulders (H&S) 📉 What is the Head & Shoulders Pattern? The Head & Shoulders (H&S) is a classic bearish reversal pattern that appears after a prolonged uptrend, signaling a shift in market sentiment from bullish to bearish. It consists of three main parts: Left Shoulder: A peak followed by a retracement. Head: A higher peak, indicating the last strong bullish attempt. Right Shoulder: A lower peak, failing to reach the height of the head, showing weakening momentum. Neckline: A crucial support level that connects the lows of the shoulders. A confirmed break below this neckline is the trigger for a bearish continuation. 📊 Breakdown of the Pattern in This Chart Left Shoulder (First Peak): The price made a high and then pulled back. Head (Higher Peak): The market made another higher high but failed to sustain it, indicating exhaustion. Right Shoulder (Lower Peak): A weaker attempt to push higher, but price failed to break previous highs, confirming the loss of bullish strength. Neckline Breakout: The dotted trendline shows the ascending support that was eventually broken, confirming bearish momentum. 2️⃣ Key Technical Levels & Market Structure Understanding the important levels in the market is crucial for setting up an effective trade. 🟧 Resistance Zone (Supply Area) The resistance level, marked in a beige box, is located around 0.006800. Price was rejected multiple times from this zone, confirming strong selling pressure. The head of the pattern was formed in this region before a sharp drop. 🔵 Support Level (Neckline & Demand Area) The neckline of the Head & Shoulders pattern was acting as support before being broken. This level was tested multiple times before the final breakdown. Once broken, it turned into a resistance level, meaning price may pull back to this area before continuing downward. 📉 Trendline Breakout (Bearish Confirmation) A dashed trendline was previously supporting the uptrend but was broken, confirming the bearish shift in market structure. This signals a trend reversal and a possible extended move lower. 3️⃣ Trading Strategy & Execution A well-planned entry, stop loss, and take-profit strategy is essential for managing risk effectively. 📌 Entry Strategy (Short Setup) Ideal Entry: Look for price to pull back to the neckline (previous support turned resistance). Confirmation: Watch for bearish candlestick patterns such as: Bearish engulfing Pin bar rejection Shooting star Lower highs forming near the neckline A rejection in this zone confirms seller dominance and a high-probability short setup. 📌 Stop Loss Placement The Stop Loss is placed above the right shoulder at 0.006725. This ensures protection from false breakouts or unexpected bullish moves. 📌 Profit Target Projection Take-Profit Target: The projected move suggests a target at 0.006493. This aligns with previous structural support, increasing its significance. The measured move for Head & Shoulders suggests that price could fall further after confirmation. Risk-Reward Ratio The Risk (Stop Loss): Around 50 pips. The Reward (Profit Target): Around 180 pips. This results in a Risk-Reward Ratio of approximately 1:3, making it an attractive trade. 4️⃣ Market Sentiment & Expected Price Movement 📉 Bearish Scenario (Most Likely) Price retests the neckline but fails to break above it. Sellers step in, rejecting the resistance level, leading to further downside. Price targets the next major support at 0.006493, completing the Head & Shoulders move. 📈 Bullish Scenario (Alternative) If price reclaims the neckline and moves back above 0.006725, the pattern is invalidated. This could lead to a bullish continuation back toward previous highs. In this case, traders should cut losses early and avoid forcing a short trade. 5️⃣ Risk Management & Best Practices 1️⃣ Position Sizing: Risk only 1-2% of your account per trade to maintain long-term profitability. 2️⃣ Confirmation Before Entry: Wait for price to reject the neckline resistance before entering short. Avoid entering too early without clear bearish signs. 3️⃣ Monitor News & Fundamentals: Major economic events, interest rate decisions, or central bank announcements could impact JPY/USD price action. 🔎 Final Conclusion: Bearish Outlook on JPY/USD The Head & Shoulders breakdown signals a trend reversal from bullish to bearish. The neckline breakout confirms seller control over the market. The best short entry is on a pullback to previous support (now resistance). Target at 0.006493, with a Stop Loss at 0.006725 ensures controlled risk. 📢 Trading Bias: Bearish 📉 💡 Watch for a retest & rejection before entering short.
Short
by GoldMasterTrades
Bull Trap Confirmed: HOOD's 8% Rally Faces ExhaustionHey Traders after the success of our last month trade on Tesla hitting all targets more than 35%+ With a Similar Trade setup I bring you today the NASDAQ:HOOD Short opportunity on Hood Based on Technical + Fundamental View -Market structure -Head and shoulder pattern -Currently will be trading at supply zone which was a recent support and now an ideal place for a reversal to create the right shoulder of the bigger head and shoulder pattern - Daily time frame. 1. Declining User Growth and Transaction-Based Revenue 2. Regulatory and Legal Challenges 3. Rising Costs and Profitability Pressures 4. Intense Industry Competition 5. Macroeconomic and Market Volatility Technical View Head and shoulder pattern - Pretty visible. Right shoulder is yet to be formed, Which makes an ideal place to SELL with a great Risk Reward ratio. Pro Tip Wait for a bearish candle stick pattern to execute trades on end of the day keeping stop loss somewhere above the supply zone. Target 1 - 35.52$ Target 2 - 30.81$ Target 3 - 26.26$ Stop Loss - 44.72$ Fundamental View 1. Declining User Growth and Transaction-Based Revenue Robinhood’s revenue model relies heavily on Payment for Order Flow (PFOF), which makes it vulnerable to fluctuations in trading activity. After a pandemic-driven surge in 2020–2021, user growth stalled, with monthly active users dropping 34% YoY to 14 million by mid-2022. Transaction revenue fell 55% in Q2 2022, and while assets under custody grew to $140 billion by Q2 2024, the platform’s dependence on volatile crypto and meme-stock trading amplified revenue instability. 2. Regulatory and Legal Challenges The SEC’s scrutiny of PFOF and proposed trading rule changes threaten Robinhood’s core revenue source. In 2022, New York regulators fined Robinhood’s crypto unit $30 million for anti-money laundering violations. Ongoing legal risks, including backlash from the 2021 GameStop trading restrictions, have further eroded institutional trust. 3. Rising Costs and Profitability Pressures Operating expenses surged due to aggressive marketing, technology upgrades, and compliance investments. Despite workforce reductions (23% layoffs in 2022), profitability remains strained. The company’s shift toward diversified products like retirement accounts and credit cards has yet to offset these costs. 4. Intense Industry Competition Traditional brokers like Fidelity and Charles Schwab adopted zero-commission trading, neutralizing Robinhood’s initial edge. Newer platforms like Webull and Public.com also captured younger investors with advanced features, while Robinhood’s limited product range (e.g., lack of wealth management services) hindered retention of high-net-worth clients. 5. Macroeconomic and Market Volatility - Interest Rate Sensitivity: As a growth stock, HOOD declined amid rising rates in 2022–2023 and broader tech-sector sell-offs. - Recent Market Turmoil: On March 10, 2025, HOOD dropped 18% alongside crypto-linked stocks like Coinbase due to Bitcoin’s price volatility and fears of inflationary tariffs under new U.S. policies. - Retail Investor Pullback: Reduced discretionary investing and crypto crashes (e.g., Bitcoin’s 71% plunge in 2022) dampened trading activity. NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISE
NASDAQ:HOODShort
by REUBEN_EUSTACE
22