Heartbeattrading
Market SnapshotAbsolutely FANTASTIC article that encapsulates the sentiment of this update and our predictions for where the market is heading:
All credits for the article go to Avi Gilburt and his ElliottWaveTrader.Net team. Highly suggest you give their stuff a read
elliottwavetrader.net/p/analysis/Sentiment-Speaks-This-Is-My-Strong-Warning-To-You-202411179385907.html
MOASS: WC: 26.59 Target: 1800-2400 MOASS: 47k-100KTLDR:
-Technical Analysis works
-Trading on hoping and holding will most likely cause you to lose a lot of money
-Reddit/Social Media and the whole "TA doesnt work on GME" is a problem for the GME community and most of the of people who think like that are not going to make near what they could if they actually understood TA
-Nothing special about the 28 level other than it coincides with the VWAP off the April runup
-MOASS has been ongoing since 2020 and never stopped
-WE CARE AND WANT YOU TO BE SUCCESSFUL
-THE GME STORY AND COMMUNITY IS SPECIAL
MOASS: WC: 24.88 Target: 1800-2400 MOASS: 47k-100KTLDR
-Margin Call
-VWAPS used to control risk
-VWAP Bands measure standard deviations from the VWAP
-Pushing thru the bands takes volume and momentum
-Fibs are targets
-Fib pairs act as support and resistance
-Smaller MOASS box and corresponding fib extensions show really good targets that traders can use to protect their investment
-Sentiment drives price and we don't care about fundamentals
Note: WC in title = weekly close.
Market SnapshotA month or so ago we published an idea titled, Election Surprise, that essentially said it does not matter who wins the U.S. election...the market is still setting up for a massive downturn
What will be the catalyst?
Don't know but if we had to guess it will materialize in the Banking sector
Commercial Real Estate bubble finally bursting maybe?
Again we don't know or care what causes the downturn..we just know that something is coming and we are preparing accordingly
But hey..maybe we are wrong :)
MOASS: BOOM!TLDR of video:
-MOASS is happening now
-Elliott Wave Idealized Target: 100K
-Ideal Target for your average retail investor: 1800 - 2400
-Psychologically, Wave 3, which we are in, is the most intense
-VWAP is your guide as price will stay above identified VWAP and will only touch it again once
MOASS is over
-Fibs are your guide as well
Expect price to begin running next week folks
We will break above identified VWAPS and that will be the surefire signal that MOASS has lifted off for the last time
SEE YOU AT THE TOP!!!
Robinhood: Turned Off The Buy Button Now They Get Turned OffRobinhood...Robinhood...Robinhood
We all remember how they infamously turned off the BUY button in GME trading which caused it to plummet
Well I wonder if they will try turning off the SELL button this time on their own stock lol?
Cant wait to short this sucker to the ground
Not financial advice of course
Market SnapshotIn every financial crisis in the past the professional market analysts (i.e. talking heads and article writers) from the major firms waited too late to tell you the house was on fire..and they always said things are better than they were
Do you know why that is?
Its because they have to protect AUM (Assets Under Management) at ALL COSTS...even at the costs of your investments
The last thing they EVER want you to do is SELL
Plan accordingly people
MOASS: Fuse LitTLDR of the video:
-Price has likely bottomed
-Short Volume is increasing as predicted
-Price should rocket through VWAPS
-Next significant price levels: 22, 25, 28, 40
-Price should be in full squeeze mode once we get above 28 and definitely 40
-Manage your positions by watching short volume and price reactions to VWAP
M O A S S
XLF- Cant Hide From The TruthWe are in interesting times in the markets
If you have followed us at all you know that we have been pounding the table for the last couple of years that the markets are heading for a GENERATIONAL TOP
Of course as with all Bull markets we have seen almost parabolic price action in some markets at points over that time period since
And of course you see some interesting calls regarding where the markets are heading
Just yesterday we saw calls for SPX 7500, 8000, 10000, etc
While all of those levels are theoretically possible, a trader makes money on whats probable
And the clearest chart we have on where markets are heading is found with XLF
Without turning this into an Elliott Wave seminar we have 2 clear as day patterns that signal the end of the 5 wave impulsive move that started off the Covid lows
ANYTIME you see a triangle appear in a wave that means the NEXT move you see is the LAST move of that wave...and once that final move completes you can expect a significant retracement
As you see we have a by-the-book triangle in the Wave 4 position
But wait theres more! (in our best infomercial voice lol)
Along with the triangle an ENDING DIAGONAL has formed in Wave 5
Ending Diagonals, like triangles, also signal that a wave is ending and a retracement is next
So in a nutshell, we have a clear triangle in Wave 4 that told us the next move (Wave 5 in this instance) would be the last move before a significant retracement AND we are in the final stages of an ending diagonal in Wave 5 which signals that the Wave 5 move is over
Here is the last piece we want you to know:
Triangles are almost COMPLETELY RETRACED 100% OF THE TIME
And as XLF goes so do the broader markets....get ready
MOASS: Match LightingOk lets recap our main targets and ideas for MOASS:
Target Price: 1800-2400 w/ major potential for pockets of trades to execute at much higher
levels
Duration: Oct 2024 - July 2025 w/ a major move to new all time highs taking place between Oct and Feb
Key Date: Oct 21st 2024 should see volume and short volume begin to increase
VWAPs are the key and price will be supported by VWAP all the way to MOASS conclusion
What now?
The main data point that we are watching like a hawk is SHORT VOLUME
Increasing short volume is the MAIN indicator that will signal both the START and END of MOASS
When you see short volume RAPIDLY INCREASING during MOASS it means that they have lost control of price and are desperately trying to short it down
You will see that DECREASING short volume will always signal a current or imminent decrease in buying pressure..although because of the nature of a squeeze that may not always translate into a decline in price
So now we wait....
M O A S S
MOASS: How Will We Know Its OverSo far in our coverage of GME we have told you how high we think price will go during MOASS and also what technical triggers we think will lead to take off
We have also told you, from a timing perspective, when we think MOASS will kick into high gear (Oct 21st)
What we havent told you is how to know when MOASS is over
The short answer is: A break below VWAP
As we told you last week VWAP is a key data point that Institutions/Hedge Funds use to identify ideal entries/exits
Its also a key data point used to define acceptable risk (i.e. XYZ standard deviations from VWAP things break)
Like the Jan 21 squeeze this one will most likely be triggered by a Short Squeeze/ Gamma Ramp which will lead to forced buy-ins and extreme delta hedging
In a Short Squeeze/ Gamma Ramp environment VWAP is THE MOST IMPORTANT DATA POINT TO SHORTS
As long as price is ABOVE VWAP its not advantageous for them to close their positions...
And that is why your trigger to know that MOASS may be winding down is that first dip BELOW VWAP after price explodes
M O A S S
MOASS- Oct 21st...BOOM!We thought we would use this weeks post to highlight exactly what key triggers we think will signal lift off
Its widely known that VWAP levels are a key data point in almost all institutional algo trading systems
VWAP is important because it helps the algos identify optimal levels to enter/exit positions and define risk
The movie Margin Call does a good job of demonstrating how VWAP is used by firms
The Models they reference in the movie are using VWAP and Standard Deviations of price from VWAP to define acceptable risk...specifically margin and liquidity requirements
Price breaking too many standard deviations from VWAP is what caused the music to stop..its how they lost control of their shorts and derivative positions
Based on those researchable and verifiable facts, the defined VWAPS on the chart should be trigger levels for SWAPS/ Short positions
Case in point if you do the math, the 2022 swap agreements were entered into at a price of approx 37.92
Assuming that those positions were setup to be profitable if GME declined in price, the SWAP/Short holders need to ensure that they dont let price break and sustain above that level
And what does the chart show? Since 2022 price has spent significantly more time UNDER 37.92 than over it
EVERY time price has broken over that level it is immediately shorted down
Conversely notice that VWAP since the 2021 squeeze high is at essentially the same price as the 2022 Swaps...WE DO NOT THINK THAT IS COICIDENCE
Ok great so we rocket ship once price breaks 37.92/VWAP since squeeze high...when is that going to happen Heartbeat Trading?
Short Answer: Oct 21st
From an Elliott Wave time perspective the 0.618 and 1 fib tend to be when price starts to get volatile and volume begins to flow in
When price is in a bullish price structure that usually results in significant movement higher in the direction of the prevailing trend
Since this is a short squeeze play we also anticipate seeing an exponential increase in Short Volume beginning Oct 21st
So now you know the main things we are watching and when we really anticipate price to run
M O A S S
MOASS: October= Light FuseWe are continuing our call that MOASS is imminently on the horizon
Note the 0.618 and the 1 fib on the time axis of the chart
From a fib time perspective between those levels you tend to see explosive volatility ending in positive movement in the direction of the prevailing trend
We are predicting near term strength in the broad market as well which should help push GME along
We also think that by the end of the year the broad market will begin a massive trek lower which will put significant pressure on margin levels
This coupled with the fact that per recent reports Banks are carrying the largest levels EVER of unrealized losses on securities, should be the core ingredients that fuel shorts unwinding and MOASS commencing
Thats our story and we are sticking to it lol
Good Trading To All!
M O A S S
SPX- Election SurpriseIf you follow us you know that we think SPX and markets in general are heading towards a generational top
And based the last months price action we think we know almost exactly when that top will complete:
NOVEMBER 2024
Prediction: It does not matter who wins the election..the market will begin to crash
MARK OUR WORDS
MOASSTLDR: MOASS is about to kick into high gear and Elliott Wave has given us some solid targets from a price and time perspective
MOASS Target Price: $1800-$2400..with potential for us to see pockets of trades fill at even higher levels (remember if price overshoots a target we just look to the next fib)
Timeframe to complete: End of Jan 2025 (pay attention to the fibs on the time axis)
It is time
Our patience is about to be rewarded
Friday saw, what we think is the fuse lighting (hint hint) for what we will look back later and call: MOASS
We have been pounding the table saying that GME is bullish
Elliott Wave Theory has done a great job tracking general price movements
Again, if you are judging Elliott Wave Theorys efficacy by its exactness then you have the wrong expectation
As we have explained many times Elliott Wave gives you IDEALIZED targets but price can and will overshoot/undershoot those targets...and we expect that to happen
Which is why we say EVERY FIB that we show on the chart is important because when overshoots/undershoots happen we just look to the next Fib as our target...and we do this until the price structure changes and invalidates our count
Thats why we constantly talk about PRICE STRUCTURE
Ultimately, price structure, too us, means is the overall structure Bullish (impulsive) or Bearish (corrective)
So with that said this chart lays out exactly how high we think this gets and also how long it might take
Pay close attention to EVERY FIB on the PRICE and the TIME axis...we expect price to react significantly to every one
Oh for the last time...for those that think price could never reach the prices we project ( aka at those prices GME would be XXXXXXXXXXXX Market cap blah blah) we are NOT saying that price will be SUSTAINED at those levels...we are saying price will TEMPORARILY reach those levels..
Remember we are calling targets for a SHORT SQUEEZE here..not a FUNDAMENTAL price target
M O A S S