SPX: You Need To PrepareLast time I posted on SPX I said that I was sounding the Alarm
I'm going to reiterate that you need to prepare
No fear mongering, no fancy Elliott Wave Charts and no History Lessons in economics
Lets just ask ourselves some really simple questions:
If you lost your job today, how easy do you think it would be to find replacement employment that could maintain your current lifestyle?
How many months of emergency savings do you have?
What is your level of credit card/ debt in general and are you paying more than the minimum payment?
Do you want to own a home? How hopeful are you about your chances to own in the near future?
Are you saving for retirement? No really are you saving..be honest. If not, why?
How happy, hopeful, worried, sad are you? Be honest
And finally:
Do you believe everything will be ok financially for you 10/20 years from now? Be honest
Now ask yourself: What do I have to do so that I can move from believing/not believing to KNOWING that things will be ok?
Heartbeattrading
Robinhood: Turn Off the SELL Button?I don't have to remind you what Vlad and the boys did back in 2021
Crime has always been a part of Markets..I get that
Crime will ALWAYS be a part of markets as long as GREED is rewarded
But thats where Regulators are supposed to help hold the crooks accountable..right?
As we all know that has NEVER happened
Why? Because the size of fines are never large enough to truly deter..they are simply a cost of doing business
But hey...according to the crooks we see paraded across our TV screens we need LESS REGULATION anyways because you know..FREE MARKETS!..and all that stuff right
Ok cool, well then lets do the whole Free Market thing..you know the whole, "We need LESS REGULATION because Free markets will take care of Bad Businesses" thing
Well then thats fine by me...
MAJOR PUT POSITION COMING SOON..Vlad
And GME is going to provide me with the ammo..now isnt that poetic :)
WC: 21.73 Target: 1800-2400 MOASS: 47k-100K: MOASS PLAYBOOK***I will be releasing a video either tomorrow or Monday. Had to have an emergency procedure on my mouth and am unable to speak clearly at the moment***
Convertible Bonds:
Immediately after the news was released I posted that the interest-free Bonds were a good thing as they were not immediately dilutive because Buyers need price to rise in order to see profit. The Bonds were ultimately priced at approx 29.85.
Why did the price decline so sharply?
In the words of Larry Cheng..Hedge Funds Gonna Hedge or in words Hedges would use: Convertible Bond Arbitrage. Simply said "Arbitrage" plays try to exploit mispricing between two or more correlated assets. In this case...GME Stock price vs The price of the Bonds.
To hedge against the risk of the Bonds not appreciating in value (remember they don't pay interest so they NEED the stock price above 29.85 to see profit) they enter an equivalent SHORT position to essentially make themselves Delta Neutral to any unfavorable moves in the stock price (aka they dont want to be exposed if price never makes it above 29.85 or sees sharp declines at a future date).
The mispricing piece of this comes from volatility and options values and would materialize as the price of the shorts converge with the price of the Bonds (the more volatility the more the potential mispricing and profit potential)
WHAT HAPPENS IF PRICE SQUEEZES THEN?
ALL short sellers are future buyers so they would most likely cover to possibly close the shorts, which on top of what THE CAT is doing could cause MOASS to be even GREATER IN MAGNITUDE...yeah this was a CHECKMATE of a move by Ryan Cohen and the board people.
MOASS PLAYBOOK:
I have been saying for months that I'm fairly certain I have figured out the exact timing of The Cats play. Without saying more than I'm comfortable saying its built around settlement cycles.
Everything I learned I learned from his tweets...literally EVERYTHING is there
And the kicker to all of this is that it works on more than just GME...as he has shown.
What you see on the chart is EXACTLY how MOASS will transpire based on what I've learned.
Could I be wrong? Of Course. You are responsible for your own trading so I would advise you to assume I am and TRADE WHAT YOU SEE...NOT WHAT YOU HOPE FOR
So I have now given you the EXACT timing as I have it laid out on my personal charts AND potential targets for a TOP
This will either be one of the greatest calls of all time or one of the greatest cases of SHEER DELUSION..I'm responsible for my own trading so I'm fine with either outcome
Good trading to you all!
I am Heartbeat Trading..Activist Short Squeezer
TESLA: A Good Trade for Bulls AND BearsTesla has an Elon problem aka a SENTIMENT problem
I am a 100% Technical Trader
I am an avid believer in Elliott Wave Theory and Socionomics
From those perspectives its clear to me that Tesla is in trouble...long term
Tesla went from essentially a meme like stock to a media and Institutional darling
The meteoric rise in the stock was largely because of belief in Elon..the person
Yes his companies have done some pretty amazing things..but if we are honest there are tons of failed promises in their past and now we are seeing competitors start to really make ground
This is showing up in vehicle pricing and units delivered..both trending down
The problem Tesla stock truly has though is that soooooo much of the company sentiment is tied into a belief in Elon- the person..versus the fundamentals of the company and their actual products (cmon we all know LIDAR is better smh)
As his popularity wains... so will Tesla
So with that said the charts are setup to provide opportunities for BOTH BULLS and BEARS over the next few years.
The chart show really clean places to take and hedge positions... but long term BULLS need to be keely aware of the "Trouble" line because if and when it breaks Tesla will be in serious trouble
MARKET ALERT: Sound the AlarmOver the past few years as price has reached major potential turning points in the market I have sounded the alarm that LONG SIDE RISK has risen and to be on HIGH ALERT for a potential downturn.
Of course as we have seen this Bull Market has had significant legs and has continued to grind higher.
What now?
I told you in September that it did not matter who was elected that the Market would turn weak...and it did
We have been going essentially sideways since November
I also said that around Jan 15th the market would turn lower...and it has
I also said that lower move would take us down to the 5600-5700 region..and it did
Now I am telling you that we are setting up for what appears to be ONE FINAL PUSH HIGHER
Where does that move take us?
Somewhere near 6500
What happens after that?
You can expect a SWIFT CRASH LIKE move back to almost exactly where we are now but probably around 5400
And its at THAT point that ALL CARDS WILL BE ON THE TABLE
You should expect a retracement back up from that 5400 region
If that retracement is CLEARLY CORRECTIVE in nature then you can expect a move down to 5000 and if the market cant hold that region then its: GAME OVER
Can I be wrong? Absolutely...and for the sake of the people I love, this country that I call home and my brotherhood of fellow humans around the world I HONESTLY HOPE I AM
Because if I'm not wrong then whats coming over the next decade will be potentially MUCH WORSE THAN A RECESSION
PREPARE YOURSELF
MPW- About TImeMPW has been taking its swwwweeeetttt time overlapping and making lower lows
This is absolutely related to that insane borrow fee and the shorting taking place
But as with everything else, all things must come to an end :)
Shorts are about to get wrecked for the next couple months most likely
This should fly right along with the other stuff that squeezes from now throughout the summer
I'll most likely end up making this part of my "Squeeze Me" series
Market Snapshotwww.saferbankingresearch.com
In light of Jerome Powell speaking Friday thought this was a great article
The below quote is from the FED as referenced in the article and Avi Gilburt rightfully asks why they would make stress tests LESS STRINGENT....hmmnnn
"The current severely adverse scenario features a slightly smaller increase in the unemployment rate in the United States compared to the 2024 severely adverse scenario. The current severely adverse scenario also features slightly smaller declines in house prices, which reflects the Scenario Design Framework’s response to the slightly lower ratio of nominal house prices to per capita disposable income at the end of 2024.
The current severely adverse scenario reflects a decline in commercial real estate prices that is 10 percentage points smaller compared to the previous year’s severely adverse scenario, recognizing that those prices have already declined by a little more than 10% relative to their most recent peaks and limiting the procyclicality in the stress tests.
The potential for spillover effects in asset markets and sharp changes in investor sentiment are captured by a decline in equity prices and an increase in corporate bond spreads, although these changes are less severe relative to last year’s scenario, reflecting less severe stress in commercial real estate markets.
The international component of the current severely adverse scenario shows a recessionary episode that, relative to last year’s severely adverse scenario, is the same for the euro area and less severe in all other countries or country blocs."