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TLT Is Yelling at UsYou typically see a migration to TLT when people are looking for a safe haven from troubled markets I posted about TLT previously and thought we were about to see a rush to the trade because of potential market weakness Well as we know this Bull market continued to show legs and subsequently TLT has been grounded on the launching pad The market is yet again showing classic signs of topping Are we saying that the market is about to crash? NO..not yet What we are saying is that liquidity is leaving the equities markets in droves and TLT will most likely be a place where that liquidity finds a home So pay close attention to TLT over the next 6 months because its going to tell you everything you need to know about this bull market
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by Heartbeat_Trading
Market SnapshotHow do you see the economic future of America? www.youtube.com www.saferbankingresearch.com "As such, as of Q3 2023, the total equity of the banks participating in the 2024 stress test was already lower than their loans to shadow bankers. Given that on-balance sheet loans to shadow bankers have increased by nearly 20% since Q3 2023, and assuming off-balance sheet loan commitments have grown at the same rate, total loan commitments to shadow bankers from the largest banks are now even higher. This makes shadow banking lending one of the largest segments—and, for some, already the largest—of these banks' credit books."
SP:SPXShort
by Heartbeat_Trading
Market SnapshotHmmmnnnnn....... www.dailymail.co.uk "Hedge funds are making a multi-billion-dollar gamble against the US economy, betting Donald Trump's presidency will result in a massive market crash that could devastate 401(k)s, pensions, and household savings across America. Data from Goldman Sachs has sent shockwaves through financial circles, revealing a dramatic surge in 'short' positions against US stocks - a move that signals a belief the market is headed for a precipitous crash. Throughout January, investors placed 10 times more bets on American stocks falling than on their continued rise, a staggering shift that reflects growing unease over Wall Street's future under Trump's leadership. The timing of such financial revolt is no coincidence and comes just as the world witnessed a $600 billion wipeout in major US tech stocks earlier this week, driven by fears over Chinese AI rival DeepSeek, which disrupted the once-unshakable dominance of America's technology sector. "
SP:SPXShort
by Heartbeat_Trading
Market Snapshotwww.elliottwavetrader.net Another great write-up by Avi Gilburt and team on the current state of things at a Macro level Not affiliated with them and not pushing any of their services of course.. Do I agree with everything they say? Nope The below snippet from the article hints at the TRUE reason why things are going to get desperate in this economy over the next decade: "QE is merely a machination through which more debt is made available in the system, which is an indirect manner to increase the money supply. It is not actual printing of dollar bills, which would directly increase the money supply. Therefore, if more debt is made available, the only way you will get inflation is if there is public demand for that additional supply of debt. Without the matching demand for the additional debt supply, QE becomes a failure."
SP:SPXShort
by Heartbeat_Trading
2
SQUEEZE ME PART DEAUXIn my weekend Gamestop update video I mentioned that although it may be poetic to some to think that a Gamestop short squeeze will cause the market to crash, rarely if ever is it one single event that causes a market to decline. Rather it's the CUMULATIVE effect of multiple market participants "getting out over their skis" from a risk perspective that ultimately brings markets to their knees (from a catalyst perspective that is) So watch me prove it. After GME peaks on 06/09 we are going to look at these plays and see how things went :)
NASDAQ:GOVXLong
by Heartbeat_Trading
3
BITCOIN: $150k by Oct 2025...then PAINThe rise of Bitcoin and the crypto space as a whole has been one of the most fascinating parts of this last Bull Market run. From a socioeconomic perspective the rise of speculative assets, including Bitcoin, often coincides with bull markets and economic cycles. These speculative booms tend to cluster near periods of excessive liquidity, investor euphoria, or the final stages of economic expansion. Below are comparisons highlighting how Bitcoin's behavior aligns with previous speculative asset bubbles and economic cycles: 1. Bitcoin and the Dot-Com Bubble (1995-2000) Similarities: Speculation Driven by Innovation: The internet in the 1990s and blockchain technology in the 2010s both promised transformative potential. Parabolic Price Action: Many dot-com stocks exhibited exponential price growth, similar to Bitcoin during its 2017 and 2021 bull runs. Euphoria at the Peak: Both saw significant retail and institutional participation near the top. Collapse: The NASDAQ dropped ~78% after 2000; Bitcoin saw >80% declines after 2017 and 2021 peaks. Economic Context: The dot-com bubble coincided with a strong economy, low unemployment, and expansive monetary policies before the Fed began raising rates in 1999. 2. Bitcoin and the Housing Bubble (2002-2007) Similarities: Access to Cheap Credit: Just as low-interest rates fueled the housing market, easy liquidity and ultra-low interest rates from 2008 onwards helped Bitcoin's rise. Speculative Investments: Both periods saw retail investors flock to perceived high-return assets—real estate in the 2000s and cryptocurrencies in the 2010s/2020s. FOMO and Leverage: Use of leverage amplified returns and risks in both markets. Economic Context: The housing bubble inflated during a period of economic growth and low rates, culminating in the 2008 financial crisis. 3. Bitcoin and Gold During the 1970s Similarities: Hedge Against Inflation: Bitcoin is often called "digital gold," much like gold was a refuge during the stagflation of the 1970s. Speculative Mania: Gold's rise in the late 1970s was driven by fear of inflation and geopolitical instability, paralleling Bitcoin's role as a hedge during monetary expansion. Economic Context: Rising inflation, energy crises, and global uncertainty contributed to gold's rise, peaking in 1980. Bitcoin's 2021 peak coincided with fears of monetary debasement and high inflation. 4. Bitcoin and the Roaring Twenties Speculation (1920s) Similarities: Technological Innovation: The 1920s saw the rise of automobiles, radios, and electrification, much like blockchain innovations in the 2010s and 2020s. Excessive Leverage: Margin trading drove speculative stock purchases in the 1920s, akin to the leverage seen in crypto markets during Bitcoin bull runs. Economic Context: An economic boom and loose monetary policies fueled the 1920s stock market until the 1929 crash. 5. Bitcoin and Oil During the Early 2000s Similarities: Scarcity Narrative: Oil's rise during the 2000s due to geopolitical concerns and growing demand mirrors Bitcoin's scarcity-driven valuation. Speculative Price Movements: Both experienced rapid growth as speculative capital piled in. Economic Context: Oil's rise coincided with economic growth, peaking before the 2008 financial crisis. Bitcoin has also seen peaks before macroeconomic downturns. Common Themes of Speculative Peaks: Liquidity Abundance: Speculative asset bubbles often form during periods of loose monetary policy or fiscal stimulus. Retail Participation: Peaks are marked by significant retail involvement, media hype, and euphoric sentiment. Late-Cycle Phenomenon: The speculative peak often aligns with the late stages of economic expansion, just before a contraction. Leverage and Risk: High leverage amplifies price volatility and magnifies both gains and losses.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Heartbeat_Trading
Market Snapshot1. Excessive Speculation or Asset Bubbles Preceding downturns, markets often experience speculative mania in certain sectors (e.g., 1929 stock bubble, 2008 housing bubble, 2000 tech bubble). 2. Monetary Policy Tightening Central banks often raise interest rates or tighten monetary policy to combat inflation, reducing liquidity (e.g., Federal Reserve hikes in 1929, 1980, and 2008). 3. Leverage and Debt Crises Excessive leverage among consumers, corporations, or financial institutions increases vulnerability (e.g., margin loans in 1929, subprime mortgages in 2008). 4. Overvaluation of Financial Assets Markets often become overvalued based on metrics like P/E ratios, creating disconnects between prices and fundamentals (e.g., 1999-2000 tech stocks, 1929). 5. Liquidity Crises A lack of liquidity or credit crunch exacerbates selloffs (e.g., 2008 banking crisis, 1987 Black Monday). 6. Geopolitical or Systemic Shocks Unexpected shocks such as wars, oil crises, or pandemics trigger fear and uncertainty (e.g., OPEC oil embargo in 1973, COVID-19 in 2020). 7. Declining Consumer Confidence Consumer sentiment falls due to high unemployment, inflation, or fear of recession, dampening spending and economic activity (e.g., 2008, 1980s). 8. Corporate Earnings Decline Broad declines in corporate profits lead to stock selloffs (e.g., early 2000s dot-com bust, 2008 financial crisis). 9. Structural Economic Weakness Economic imbalances or structural issues amplify downturns (e.g., overproduction in 1929, housing bubble in 2008, supply chain disruptions in 2020). 10. Psychological Panic and Loss of Trust Fear and herd behavior lead to mass selloffs, deepening declines (e.g., 1929 panic selling, Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008).
SP:SPXShort
by Heartbeat_Trading
2