Heartbeattrading
MOASS: Match LightingOk lets recap our main targets and ideas for MOASS:
Target Price: 1800-2400 w/ major potential for pockets of trades to execute at much higher
levels
Duration: Oct 2024 - July 2025 w/ a major move to new all time highs taking place between Oct and Feb
Key Date: Oct 21st 2024 should see volume and short volume begin to increase
VWAPs are the key and price will be supported by VWAP all the way to MOASS conclusion
What now?
The main data point that we are watching like a hawk is SHORT VOLUME
Increasing short volume is the MAIN indicator that will signal both the START and END of MOASS
When you see short volume RAPIDLY INCREASING during MOASS it means that they have lost control of price and are desperately trying to short it down
You will see that DECREASING short volume will always signal a current or imminent decrease in buying pressure..although because of the nature of a squeeze that may not always translate into a decline in price
So now we wait....
M O A S S
MOASS: How Will We Know Its OverSo far in our coverage of GME we have told you how high we think price will go during MOASS and also what technical triggers we think will lead to take off
We have also told you, from a timing perspective, when we think MOASS will kick into high gear (Oct 21st)
What we havent told you is how to know when MOASS is over
The short answer is: A break below VWAP
As we told you last week VWAP is a key data point that Institutions/Hedge Funds use to identify ideal entries/exits
Its also a key data point used to define acceptable risk (i.e. XYZ standard deviations from VWAP things break)
Like the Jan 21 squeeze this one will most likely be triggered by a Short Squeeze/ Gamma Ramp which will lead to forced buy-ins and extreme delta hedging
In a Short Squeeze/ Gamma Ramp environment VWAP is THE MOST IMPORTANT DATA POINT TO SHORTS
As long as price is ABOVE VWAP its not advantageous for them to close their positions...
And that is why your trigger to know that MOASS may be winding down is that first dip BELOW VWAP after price explodes
M O A S S
MOASS- Oct 21st...BOOM!We thought we would use this weeks post to highlight exactly what key triggers we think will signal lift off
Its widely known that VWAP levels are a key data point in almost all institutional algo trading systems
VWAP is important because it helps the algos identify optimal levels to enter/exit positions and define risk
The movie Margin Call does a good job of demonstrating how VWAP is used by firms
The Models they reference in the movie are using VWAP and Standard Deviations of price from VWAP to define acceptable risk...specifically margin and liquidity requirements
Price breaking too many standard deviations from VWAP is what caused the music to stop..its how they lost control of their shorts and derivative positions
Based on those researchable and verifiable facts, the defined VWAPS on the chart should be trigger levels for SWAPS/ Short positions
Case in point if you do the math, the 2022 swap agreements were entered into at a price of approx 37.92
Assuming that those positions were setup to be profitable if GME declined in price, the SWAP/Short holders need to ensure that they dont let price break and sustain above that level
And what does the chart show? Since 2022 price has spent significantly more time UNDER 37.92 than over it
EVERY time price has broken over that level it is immediately shorted down
Conversely notice that VWAP since the 2021 squeeze high is at essentially the same price as the 2022 Swaps...WE DO NOT THINK THAT IS COICIDENCE
Ok great so we rocket ship once price breaks 37.92/VWAP since squeeze high...when is that going to happen Heartbeat Trading?
Short Answer: Oct 21st
From an Elliott Wave time perspective the 0.618 and 1 fib tend to be when price starts to get volatile and volume begins to flow in
When price is in a bullish price structure that usually results in significant movement higher in the direction of the prevailing trend
Since this is a short squeeze play we also anticipate seeing an exponential increase in Short Volume beginning Oct 21st
So now you know the main things we are watching and when we really anticipate price to run
M O A S S
MOASS: October= Light FuseWe are continuing our call that MOASS is imminently on the horizon
Note the 0.618 and the 1 fib on the time axis of the chart
From a fib time perspective between those levels you tend to see explosive volatility ending in positive movement in the direction of the prevailing trend
We are predicting near term strength in the broad market as well which should help push GME along
We also think that by the end of the year the broad market will begin a massive trek lower which will put significant pressure on margin levels
This coupled with the fact that per recent reports Banks are carrying the largest levels EVER of unrealized losses on securities, should be the core ingredients that fuel shorts unwinding and MOASS commencing
Thats our story and we are sticking to it lol
Good Trading To All!
M O A S S
SPX- Election SurpriseIf you follow us you know that we think SPX and markets in general are heading towards a generational top
And based the last months price action we think we know almost exactly when that top will complete:
NOVEMBER 2024
Prediction: It does not matter who wins the election..the market will begin to crash
MARK OUR WORDS
MOASSTLDR: MOASS is about to kick into high gear and Elliott Wave has given us some solid targets from a price and time perspective
MOASS Target Price: $1800-$2400..with potential for us to see pockets of trades fill at even higher levels (remember if price overshoots a target we just look to the next fib)
Timeframe to complete: End of Jan 2025 (pay attention to the fibs on the time axis)
It is time
Our patience is about to be rewarded
Friday saw, what we think is the fuse lighting (hint hint) for what we will look back later and call: MOASS
We have been pounding the table saying that GME is bullish
Elliott Wave Theory has done a great job tracking general price movements
Again, if you are judging Elliott Wave Theorys efficacy by its exactness then you have the wrong expectation
As we have explained many times Elliott Wave gives you IDEALIZED targets but price can and will overshoot/undershoot those targets...and we expect that to happen
Which is why we say EVERY FIB that we show on the chart is important because when overshoots/undershoots happen we just look to the next Fib as our target...and we do this until the price structure changes and invalidates our count
Thats why we constantly talk about PRICE STRUCTURE
Ultimately, price structure, too us, means is the overall structure Bullish (impulsive) or Bearish (corrective)
So with that said this chart lays out exactly how high we think this gets and also how long it might take
Pay close attention to EVERY FIB on the PRICE and the TIME axis...we expect price to react significantly to every one
Oh for the last time...for those that think price could never reach the prices we project ( aka at those prices GME would be XXXXXXXXXXXX Market cap blah blah) we are NOT saying that price will be SUSTAINED at those levels...we are saying price will TEMPORARILY reach those levels..
Remember we are calling targets for a SHORT SQUEEZE here..not a FUNDAMENTAL price target
M O A S S
Watch Us Trade A Bear (or Bull for those in denial) MarketWe firmly believe that the major stock indexes have a very dire Macro outlook.
We will not go into details here (see our other posts) but with the market heading for a downturn we thought it would be awesome to show other small retail investors (thats what we are) that there is nothing to fear.
Well nothing to fear other than blowing up your account- we do not plan to do that though lol.
Ok so we are going to keep this simple. Here goes:
-We are going to take a small $500 account and grow it
-We will only trade stocks, etfs, etc- NO OPTIONS TRADING
-We will post a screenshot of our real positions- wins AND losses
-We will chart the positions on trading view so we can track the progress in real time
BTW- the screenshots are all the proof we will provide that the trades are real. We dont care if someone thinks its fake
And thats it...
We will begin at market open on 05/14/24
Random Walk? I Would Rather Have Directions
Too many traders think they are taking a Random Walk through these market streets.
Well this post is to help them define a direction.
Can you use this to target the exact price and day/hour/min? No (well sometimes you can nail it)
But just like the Map App on your phone it will get you within a certain degree of accuracy AND you will definitely generally no where you are in relationship to where you want to be
More to come!!!