USDJPY Analysis: Potential Bullish Bias for the Upcoming Week!USDJPY Analysis: Potential Bullish Bias for the Upcoming Week (Sept 23-29, 2024)
As we look ahead to the coming week, USDJPY appears poised for a potential slightly bullish bias. This outlook is based on a confluence of fundamental factors and current market conditions that favor USD strength relative to the Japanese yen. Below is a breakdown of key drivers supporting this outlook, along with insights that could influence price action.
1. Federal Reserve's Hawkish Stance
One of the key drivers for a potential bullish bias in USDJPY next week is the persistent hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. Although the Fed opted to pause rate hikes in September, policymakers have indicated that they are open to further tightening if inflationary pressures persist. Recent inflation data in the U.S. showed a slight uptick in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), suggesting that the Fed may still consider additional rate hikes in 2024. Higher U.S. interest rates would continue to bolster the U.S. dollar, driving demand for USDJPY as traders seek yield differentials.
2. Bank of Japan's Dovish Policy
In stark contrast to the Fed, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains committed to its ultra-loose monetary policy, including negative interest rates and yield curve control. The BoJ's dovish approach continues to weigh on the Japanese yen, especially in an environment where other major central banks are tightening monetary policy. While some market participants expect the BoJ to consider policy changes in the future, there have been no concrete signals indicating a shift in the near term. This widening policy divergence between the Fed and BoJ is a key factor supporting a bullish outlook for USDJPY.
3. Safe Haven Demand Waning
The yen is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, particularly during periods of global market volatility. However, recent market stability, coupled with optimism surrounding global growth prospects, has reduced demand for the yen as a haven. As risk sentiment improves, investors are more likely to allocate capital into higher-yielding assets, which could further weaken the yen.
Moreover, geopolitical tensions that previously supported yen demand have eased slightly, making USDJPY more likely to drift higher in a low-risk environment.
4. U.S. Treasury Yields Rising
Another factor contributing to the bullish bias in USDJPY is the rise in U.S. Treasury yields. Higher yields on U.S. government bonds make the dollar more attractive to foreign investors, adding upward pressure to USDJPY. The correlation between USDJPY and U.S. Treasury yields is well-documented, and as yields rise, so too does the currency pair. Traders will be closely monitoring U.S. economic data next week, including durable goods orders and GDP figures, to gauge the potential for further yield increases.
5. Technical Analysis: Key Support and Resistance Levels
From a technical perspective, USDJPY is trading within a well-defined range, but with a slight bullish bias as long as it holds above key support at the 147.50 level. A break above the psychological 150.00 level could open the door to further upside, with resistance seen at 151.50. On the downside, failure to hold above 147.50 could lead to a test of lower levels around 146.00. Momentum indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI), are currently neutral but leaning slightly toward overbought territory, suggesting room for further gains before a pullback.
6. U.S. Economic Data Next Week
Next week, market participants will pay close attention to several high-impact economic reports out of the U.S., including the Durable Goods Orders on Tuesday and GDP Growth on Thursday. Positive readings on these metrics could fuel further gains in USDJPY, reinforcing the bullish bias. Conversely, any disappointing data could dampen USD strength and lead to some consolidation in the pair.
Conclusion
Given the combination of hawkish signals from the Fed, the BoJ's ongoing dovish stance, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and waning safe-haven demand, USDJPY appears to have a slightly bullish bias heading into next week. Traders should watch for any shifts in risk sentiment or unexpected economic data that could alter this outlook. The key levels to watch are 147.50 for support and 150.00 for resistance.
Keywords: USDJPY forecast, USDJPY bullish, USDJPY analysis, Bank of Japan policy, Federal Reserve rate hikes, U.S. Treasury yields, Japanese yen, safe-haven demand, forex trading, USDJPY technical analysis, USDJPY key levels, USDJPY next week, trading USDJPY.
Heaven
BTC : Stairway To Heaven
There's a lady who's sure
All that glitters is gold
And she's buying a stairway to heaven
When she gets there she knows
If the stores are all closed
With a word she can get what she came for
And she's buying a stairway to heaven
There's a sign on the wall
But she wants to be sure
'Cause you know sometimes words have two meanings
In a tree by the brook
There's a songbird who sings
Sometimes all of our thoughts are misgiven
Ooh, it makes me wonder
Ooh, it makes me wonder
There's a feeling I get
When I look to the west
And my spirit is crying for leaving
In my thoughts I have seen
Rings of smoke through the trees
And the voices of those who stand looking (that's you)
Ooh, it makes me wonder
Ooh, it really makes me wonder
And it's whispered that soon, if we all call the tune
Then the piper will lead us to reason
And a new day will dawn
For those who stand long
And the forests will echo with laughter
If there's a bustle in your hedgerow
Don't be alarmed now
It's just a spring clean for the may queen
Yes, there are two paths you can go by
But in the long run
There's still time to change the road you're on
And it makes me wonder
Your head is humming and it won't go
In case you don't know
The piper's calling you to join him
Dear people, can you hear the wind blow?
And did you know
Your stairway lies on the whispering wind?
And as we wind on down the road
Our shadows taller than our soul
There walks a lady we all know
Who shines white light and wants to show
How everything still turns to gold
And if you listen very hard
The tune will come to you at last
When all are one and one is all
To be a rock and not to roll
And she's buying a stairway to heaven
// Durbtrade
Heaven or hell?The S&P500 is busting into a decisive zone. For some it will be heaven. Others say hell awaits everybody.
The choice is yours.
The markets have been said to be pushed not just by FED cheap money, but by Robinhoods (a popular search engine will say more). I depends on who you believe.
Just to be clear, I don't know which way it's going or for how long in any direction. All I know is that I'm stalking on lower time frames.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, or miss opportunity, kindly sue yourself.
gold rushGold seems not to touch the emas anytime soon, offering no "cheap" buy-in opportunity.
However, with phyiscal gold getting rare, it could get sought after soon enough (mines shutting down is also a "plus").
In 2008 bottom, gold rallied after ema touch - but the s&p did aswell.
This year we might not have seen the bottom of the index, yet.
Most interessting for gold is, that I havent seen another asset yet, that didnt went under long term ema, but actually rallied.
The dip could be explained through margin call refinancing and general fear - food is more valuable than money, period.
Im definetelly long on gold and would just use it as inflation proof store for liquidity yet, rather than speculating much with it.
Nonetheless I highly appreciate your opinion on the matter, as Im rather new to gold as an instrument.
Trade save and keep diamond_handz!
The mood chart for Bitcoin and the restThis started out as a joke about a week ago but I think it has proven to be a rather accurate description of the mood in cryptocoin markets and how many of you probably feel when looking at those convoluted charts with hundreds of indicators - all showing what happened, none telling the future.
NB! This chart can and will be used against you in coming days and maybe even months. Be aware of sudden changes.
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Key levels today -7717 the likely pivot for dayBitcoin: BTCUSD Update Range trading for now but overall positive above 7717
A good space for day traders, trading between the lines of support and resistance, which continue to work quite well, so
far, just as they have done over the last couple of weeks now. But for swing traders Bitcoin gave the first unreliable
technical signal for quite a while - that break below 7531 was the first heart-breaker, the first time this beautiful creature
has let us down, technically speaking, for a long time...and it's looking more and more false as each minute ticks away now.
Day traders at least had the next support line at 7426 to close out shorts, but swing traders looking to short off the next
rally back to 7531 (with stops 50 points above) - a technically sound trade - will have been swept away. Apologies.
Even more annoying, with all this price action overnight there was no guidance to get long again and buys at 7531 had
already likely been stopped out - so many have missed a large part of this move up from 7531 now, me too, and it's extremely
frustrating and annoying. Occasionally Bitcoin can mess with the best laid plans for the weekend.
We are where we are. Back on the trail.
Looks like it will grind away to the top at 7990-8000 again. Thankfully it's trading back above 7717, the freezer lid level
which will continue to play an important role this weekend. Whilst above here Bitcoin is still wanted, but under that line
not so much. As bears won the day in the end yesterday and China did indeed drive the price lower through the first
couple of hours of their session, but that break below 7531 screwed up a perfect entry for this next challenge on the
highs. Damn. Move on. Play the range on low volumes or await a possible break above 8000, which will need high
volume to make it happen. Probably only Chinese buying power can achieve this over a weekend, so the first couple
of hours of their seession could pay dividends, maybe...
Bitcoin is positive above 7717 and whilst above here will try to grind towards the highs where it becomes
a sell again for day traders playing the range. And if at some point we see 8000 broken, it should be followed, as per
weekend breakout (last comment). The space between 7717 and 8000 belongs to day traders. As is the space below 7717
down to 7531. So 7717 is now the likely pivot for the day - should this fail at any point later it turns negative again in
near term back to 7531 - where it becomes a buy again with stops 50 points below. Because of that signal break below
7531 it makes 7717 even more important for Bitcoin from here. It really is the freezer lid today by look of things.
All good above, potentially turning over into bad below.