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100% SPX - 60/40 - 80/20 - Portfolio Performance - GOLDBelow are three charts, the first depicts what i call the "Robinhood Investor" or the "Millennial Investor" which consists entirely of long equities, in this case the SPX. The second chart depicts a classic "60/40" allocation to stocks and bonds (in this case TLT, which i will come to in a moment). The final chart visualizes a portfolio of 80% equities and 20% physical gold. 100% SPX 60/40 SPX/TLT 80/20 SPX/GOLD The first thing you will notice is "well, look at that the classic 60/40 portfolio, glad i listened to my financial adviser, yes it isn't as good as the 80/20 portfolio, but heck, 157% is pretty dang good!" Well...yes and no... As i said, the bond component of the 60/40 portfolio was TLT for simplicity. BUT, not all bonds are created equal, and unless 40% of your portfolio consisted entirely of long-dated US treasuries, you did not get that return. In fact, you may in fact be underwater in some of your bond holdings, depending on what variety they are. Broad Bond performance Above we have a variety of bond options, TLT (Long-dated US Treasuries) , HYG (high yield "junk" bonds), LQD (Investment grade bonds) and BND (global bond index fund). It is true that TLT has done incredibly well of late up over 103%, but HYG is DOWN over 23% since 2008! BND is up around 16% and LQD is up 2nd only to TLT at 28%. A 60/40 portfolio would most likely hold LQD, or something akin to it, a more aggressive portfolio may even hold HYG, and most would likely hold some kind of bond benchmark, such as BND. Therefore, the 60/40 portfolio performance is HEAVILY skewed in favor of bonds. Yet still fails to best Gold. 80/20 SPX/GOLD The 80/20 portfolio achieved returns of over 173%, but more importantly, note the "Robinhood" performance, there are significant periods of draw-down, in fact, there are 13 YEARS during which the portfolio failed to do anything! 100% SPX I don't know about you, but having you money do NOTHING for 13 years seems like poor financial management. So what are the take aways of this exercise? Firstly, blindly "buying and holding" equities over the long run is not a good idea (i am waiting for the FAANG fanboys to show up, what i have to say to that crowd is, if you think you can pick the next moonshot stock, please hit me up, i have some magic beans to sell you). Secondly, the 60/40 portfolio does perform better than 100% equities, but you will sacrifice gains as a result, largely because bonds tend to do very little most of the time, therefore the 40% capital allocation to them, in my opinion, is better used elsewhere, i would even prefer to you that capital, or some of it, to hedge a long equity portfolio and go to cash rather than buy and hold during a downturn. Finally, the best performer, the 80/20 SPX/Gold portfolio, this portfolio did experience more volatility than the 60/40 portfolio. But that should not scare anyone off, the period of draw-down from 2000 to 2005 was more to do with the time period i selected (post tech wreck) and the subsequent fall in the 80% of the portfolio that was long equities, NOT the 20% of Gold which had the portfolio consistently in the green from November 2005 to today. -TradingEdge
SP:SPX
by Profit_Link
6
SPYWent into today with a short position and ended up holding onto it! Find and place good entry points and give yourself plenty of time in case price decides to turn against you; this helps to really mitigate taking large losses! ... that and little hedging! Intraday demand formed around 282 which gave end of day bounce up to stretch for a higher high. As of now, this area we are in is anyone’s game which I stay out of. Could go to 285; 288; or even 292... who knows for sure which is why I wait for price to get to a level where I believe is a good entry point. Kept my short going into today and added a small bit more to it. Again, giving myself time in case price decides to keep pushing higher. Think we are at a pivotal point here.
AMEX:SPYShort
by PT_Marche
2
Bitcoin W/ Targets Of Over $24k - The Perfect Hedge Against FEDSThis is a view of $BTC in a longer-term perspective. Bitcoin could see compression until 2021...when everyone gets super bored of it and volatility dies out. As the law goes, compressing volatility begets expanding volatility. Estimate target to about $24k and possible room for over performance. With the world leaning more in a Cryptocentric environment with the FEDS looking to make a Dollar backed coin, & a scramble for Dollars from heavily dollar-based borrowers worldwide, this might be the ULTIMATE hedge....along with GOLD
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by KennySniper
SPY range trading, AlphaOverBeta Technical AnalysisHello traders, SPY had completed a 1-2-3 pattern and is consolidating its price pattern, this is very good technical news as price returned to standard behavior after moving wildly and unpredictably. The current trade range is 245-265 in the short term, any move above the 265( which our model begins to increase the probability for! ) will provide a bullish short term indication, moving below the 240-245 will provide the trigger that the market is headed to re-test the 220 lows. We are currently short term bullish on SPY with PUT options hedging our position, crossing the 265-270 resistance will provide a major trigger to go long equities. Trade Smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPY
by Alon_AOB
2
BTC patience ProspersThis is what i will be waiting/watching for over the coming weeks/months. As Central Banks print trillions of dollers each day of worthless FIAT currencies to prop up an already doomed global economy. Many other will be going back to cash and decreasing their risk on stock markets. Once everything settles and the Media stop over hyping this Corona Virus and hospitals start to cope with the decreasing cases we will see money start to look for places that offer value. The market cap of Crypto currencies is so small that if even a very small fraction of this liquidity finds its way into BTC we will see a rally much larger than 2017. Remember the year BTC was born and what was happening globally at this time.......!
by gillman_hugh
2
The $8,000 mark is strong, being patient would be betterThe market fell back as the rebound range could not expand. The $8,000 mark has done a strong press on the BTC market. The market is hard to break this level due to the volume remained low. Moreover, the short-term market was led by the shorts. Since the market rose back, the BTC market has never challenged the $8,000 mark. Even the selling market of the 4-hours chart started getting weakened, the will of the capital kept it still. Thus, the rebound range is limited. The current trend is still bearish, if it cannot recover $8,000 in the short-term, we should prevent the continuous drops, and prepare for the hedging strategy. As for now, long is not available. We should focus on the pressure at $8,000, long after it broken is available.
by BitOfferEN
The $8,000 mark is strong, being patient would be betterThe market fell back as the rebound range could not expand. The $8,000 mark has done a strong press on the BTC market. The market is hard to break this level due to the volume remained low. Moreover, the short-term market was led by the shorts. Since the market rose back, the BTC market has never challenged the $8,000 mark. Even the selling market of the 4-hours chart started getting weakened, the will of the capital kept it still. Thus, the rebound range is limited. The current trend is still bearish, if it cannot recover $8,000 in the short-term, we should prevent the continuous drops, and prepare for the hedging strategy. As for now, long is not available. We should focus on the pressure at $8,000, long after it broken is available.
by BitOfferEN
1
GDXJ Setting Up As a Great Market HedgeTVC:GOLD has always effectively hedged against inflation, the USD, and overvalued TVC:SPX markets. Current geopolitical uncertainty bolsters its value. Markets are heavily overinflated; the Shiller PE Ratio is higher than that of black Tuesday. AMEX:GDXJ is setting up bullishly, making it a great independent and inversely market correlated hedge. Relevant charts: GDXJ with confirmation on a higher timeframe, the weekly chart: snipboard.io USD futures showing overvaluation, approaching resistance, and uncertainty in price action: snipboard.io S&P 500 index showing extreme overvaluation and bearish divergence between price action and RSI; confirmation with ADX: snipboard.io
AMEX:GDXJLong
by DoozyTrader
BTC/USD - Textbook Rising Wedge (Instructions inside)Hello friends! After a prior strong downtrend of six months, the price of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) printed a Rising Wedge pattern. This pattern was formed by higher highs combined with small pullbacks during this seven-weeks trend. Smaller pullbacks usually underline the strength of a trend. What's suspicious here is that the we see a divergence with the volume , which was declining while the price was rising. Buyers did not support the higher price levels. This finally resulted in a rejection at $10.500 with a move to $9.200 within 6 days. The Support Line of the Rising Wedge broke. Indicators go crazy on this volatility - but most of them point bearish now. The price is moving below the EMA 20, which is an inherent part of my strategy when trading Bitcoin. I use the Rising Wedge pattern to verify my Stop-Loss slightly above the peak Neckline & Entry at today's open price Technical Target at the bottom of the Wedge Since we do have a major event upcoming in May (Halving), i will hedge here while adding more longs at the Fibonacci Retracement Levels (0.5, 0.618, 0.786). Please manage your risk properly! If you have any questions, feel free to contact me. All details are in the bottom of the description. cheers, cryptobuller ___ Disclaimer: Any opinions, chats, messages, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this Idea are provided as general market information for educational and entertainment purposes only
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Anton_XBT
2
AUDNZD 28 Jan 2020AUDNZD is pretty interesting at this point in time. Right now, we are at a very strong support level and we are waiting for a rebound. We don’t have any confirmation yet. What does the black lines mean? We can clearly see that after the ”M formation” was done the currency pair retraced down to strong support (which we also can see on the weekly timeframe). After it retraced down it made a move to the upside but could not make it which we can see with the red wick and then push to the downside. It tried to break it again. But got rejected which we can see with the red wick. Confirmation and my thoughts? I personally think that we will see a push to the downside from line A to line B and then a push to the upside. That is where we need to be alert and look for a candlestick pattern, breakout and many more factors. COT reports NZD: tradingster.com AUD: tradingster.com AUD drastic fall in short positions from 69.975 to 34.130. This can indicate that the hedge funds are ready to open more long positions and make the AUD go higher.
Long
by Mete_forex
2
Weekly Fundamental Update (Mon Jan 27, 2020)Weekly Fundamental Update This last week ended with a noteworthy sell off seen towards the end of the week and it was a broad sell-off not specific, which is more accurate of risk-based movement a cross the financial markets rather than a specific impact from the target region (Asia) or asset class. Consideration of risk these days is important. The backing of value in its classical form has given way to an extreme amount of complacency; fueled by the bulls (buy-high, sell-higher). Being flexible to trade the markets bias and not the news is critical towards spotting opportunities in not only multiple timeframes but also across different asset classes. Your risk- tolerance should be in the front of your mind going into this next week. The most noteworthy topic last week was growth. Even though the GDP proxies that many people point to PMI’s have their flaws, they remain the leading key forward-looking indicator without any better solution. Generally speaking, they reflect the same figures as what the government published. In particular, this week’s Eurozone government-based GDP readings will be updated. This will be interesting considering the GDP from South Korea (worst since 2008) and China (worst in 29 years). Looking at the 10’s minus the 3-mo’s U.S. bonds you would assume that growth as far as a catalyst ended up with a weak footed bias. However, when you look at the PMI’s themselves, here’s how they stood. - JPY: +0.9 to 49.3 - NZD: -0.1% - EUR: +1.2 - Australia’s figures softened however the Japanese numbers improved. The number is still below 50 (indicative of a retraction), however its improvement was above 50 (an expansion). - Germany: A bigger than expected uptick, however still not above 50 - U.K.: A significant boost, manufacturing and services improving and shared burden 47.t to 49.8 - U.S.: Manufacturing ticked lower from52.4 to 51.7 (still above 50) Overall this data would be an improvement in growth. This didn’t reflect in the yield spread last week and risk-aversion was obvious. Now, what’s motivating this? If it’s something that we can identify than it’s something that most traders who consider fundamentals are all watching. I would define the complacency in the channel in the DOW, NASDAQ, or the SPX. These are the best performing asset classes in general, and especially in the last 12 months (U.S. equities vs rest of world equities (VEU)). The pullback yesterday almost hit the -1% mark, but the SPX was down 0.9%. This was a decline that was the biggest since October, but it’s also been 72 trading days without a 1% drop or advance. This is something that is considerable and can be directly reflected in the subdued volatility of the VIX. The next 1% move I think will be down, not up considering the current over extension of the longer-term bull run for the U.S. equity market. The top event risk this week depends on how we are surprised with scheduled events this week. The risk perspective will be a principle driver and I will be watching tomorrow during the N.Y. session to see how the current levels (which are at channel floors established since October 19) Event risk: The official GDP figures this week: Mexico and the U.S. on Thurs and the Eurozone on Friday. This will affect the EUR/USD and other U.S. dollar pairs. Given how quiet things have been on the Euro, I think it will reflect volatility seen in other cross pairs. Earnings: Tech, manufactures, goods etc. C onsumer confidence sentiment: worth highlighting, because of the impact is has the U.S. elections (second tax cut, and trade war resolutions) Monetary Policy: The Fed decision is the top priority this week for event risk. Higher levels of inflation is expected from Australia. There is also rumors based on the REPO/ swap market that the BOE will cut interest rates. The fed will release its forecast for 2020 and their “review” of their effectiveness of monetary policy (targeting 2% inflation vs QE as a standard tool vs. risk of high-leverage exposure to future crises) could raise questions of the ineffectiveness of monetary policy and its low rates and benchmark yields regarding solvency. This probability is low and it’s seen in the Fed Funds Futures contracts. You can’t write off the risk though, because if it comes to fruition it can overwhelm other fundamental themes. 03:11:43 (UTC) Mon Jan 27, 2020 ©2020
TVC:DXY
by TayFx
1