Hedge
SHORT- BTC - Trade Opportunity#XBTUSD Short/Hedge - We believe that a "Bart" is coming to fill the CME gap and to retest the top of the ascending triangle. For us the stops will be taken first before a dump, better to be prepared, going to short with 2 layers:
ENTRY: 8888, 8957
1st TP: @ 8406 (5.80%)
2nd TP: @ 8232 (7.75%)
Stop loss: @ 9051 (1.44%)
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Gold Bulls Await A Sustained Move Beyond $1288/1295 supply zone Fundamental View :
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1. The precious metal lacked any firm directional bias on Tuesday, albeit continued showing some resilience below 200-hour SMA amid the prevailing risk-off environment.
2. Oscillators on hourly charts have been gaining positive traction and also recovered from the negative territory on the daily chart, supporting prospects for additional gains.
3. However, traders are more likely to wait for a sustained move beyond the $1287-88 supply zone before positioning for a move towards the key $1300 psychological mark.
4. Meanwhile, a decisive break below the mentioned support, around the $1280 region, might negate the constructive set-up and trigger some aggressive technical selling.
China increased its gold holdings for the fifth consecutive month in April, the People's Bank of China said on Tuesday, according to Xinhua News Agency.
Gold reserves rose by 480,000 ounces month on month to 61.1 million ounces in April. Despite the uptick, gold reserves still make up a small percentage of China's massive reserves of more than three trillion US Dollars.
The yellow metal is currently trading at $1,287 per Oz, the highest level since May 1.
And other side May 9th USD Important news is PPI and Fed Chair Powell Speaks . So dollar can be a bit stronger. 1300 is strong resistance area in Gold So Gold can be dropped by this level test.
The bullion is yet to cross $1288/90 resistance area comprising 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of March – April drop and highs marked since mid-April.
Meanwhile, an upside clearance of $1290 can trigger the prices increase to $1300 with $1297 being an intermediate halt.
Also, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near $1302 and April month top near $1311 could become buyers’ favorites beyond $1300.
Technical View:
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Daily SMA100 1294.3
Daily SMA200 1253.94
Previous Weekly High 1288
Previous Weekly Low 1266.35
Previous Monthly High 1310.7
Previous Monthly Low 1265.6
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1280.44
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1282.51
SQQQ Inverse Share Split 1/4, Trade Wars and Chart looks good!The daily just closed above the 50 EMA on NASDAQ:SQQQ . Last time marked in yellow circles, the very next day went +13%. Not to mention, Proshares has annouced on May 24th for every 4 shares of SQQQ you'll recieve 1 back at 4 times the value. This is an even trade, but people will be buying or selling to have a quantity divisible by 4 (likely more buying than selling IMO). Also, the small bounce on Indexes today was unconvincing and Trade Wars wage on. With all that going for it, I think this is an easy long.
USOIL 1hr Analysis and Hedge StrategyAs a part of our strategy we hedged our oil positions. Our target for our hedged position is the yellow zone and we will add to our hedge if it breaks above the orange zone. TVC:USOIL
EUR/USD - DAY TRADE/ HEDGE POSITIONHi, today we are going to talk about EUR/USD
In this day trade, we observe an excellent opportunity for hedge position in the short term (Time frame H1). Details are highlighted above.
Thanks for reading, and have good trades.
Jnug finishing up head and shoulder- looking for a bounce play Open position at $8.35
Stop loss at $8
Take profit at $9.8
If you want to test my strategy out,
try to paper trade this, get the mobile paper trading app call webull, see link below.( it's like robinhood with free trading but they have paper trading feature on the app.)
copy and paste this in address link for free stock and paper trading. act.webull.com/i/7e5Q6QYdcXz1
Why this play?
Spy is running ath, so i usually like to use this as a hedge, plus the daily rsi is super low, it's gotta reset.
More about our plays
Everything I charted out is something that I am personally betting my money on along with my clients and our group.
if you choose to play it out and it work's out for you.
Im glad that we both make money =), if it doesn't work out, I am sorry. These play's are always to minimize loss while maintaining a higher reward.
I personally play these on common stocks but you can find an option play for them too.
Just make sure to buy 2 week out expiration, not too close to the money so you don't get kill by theta and delta.
if the stock is at $50, do like 5% out ($47.50)
IWM top is in?Little late night charting, have a nice naked chart with a couple areas of focus. Very simple and easy on the eye for bears but maybe not so much for the bulls. After a very boring fight performance from the bears since December 24th, they might be sneaking up on the bulls here. Of course this trade deal is still on the horizon but feels like a lot of this could be priced in/buy the rumor sell the news. Now of course just speculation but a possible scenario that could play out or also we could see some downward movement then some consolidation then the news arrives and we head back north. In my eyes I'm keeping it simple and I see a that a trade-able top is in the top yellow box, target would be middle yellow box. From there we bounce or we head for lower yellow box. Very simple. Zoom this daily chart into the weekly chart and you can see a huge head and shoulders pattern. Could be a scary ride from here until April so stay alert, stay safe, hedge your plays if possible, and look into weed stocks in the mean time. Thinking tomorrow will most likely be a very crazy day in the markets. Goodluck everyone.
[ BTC intraday ] small wedge for increasing position or hedgeSince the overall movement of BITFINEX:BTCUSD is bullish but not yet decided if its breaking out of the bull flag and finally pushing throu the big resistance, a nice low risk high rewards entry emerges. The wedge might go both ways: either the resistance is broken and the big push is happening, or it bounces again and retraces down to the previous support.
If one is already bullish, this might be a nice way to either increase the position or hedge it shorterm.
btw.: thx for commenting and likes, still trying to get the reputation to comment on ideas and participate in the chat ;)
[BTC Intra] another triangle within the yet-to-be-decided breakYes i know: "Again?". The breakout happened, it formed a triangle which led to an increase of positionsize when the next breakout came. And here we are again. an even more distinct triangle forming in BITFINEX:BTCUSD . Such patterns are often decisionpoints. its either pushing further, or retracing back. the risk is small, and stops nearly draw themself.
Only thing one should really consider now: "do i really want to increase the position further" (in case one is long already). Since i am keeping the risk per trade low, i know my answer ;)
S&P500, US05Y and US02YLast couple of times we have had this tight spread between US05Y and US02Y a mayor decline in the S&P followed
Before the declines, we saw some increase in volatility. The same kind of volatility happened last year.
Could we see a mayor decline, or a correction this year, or will the S&P just keep moving up?
Global growth forecast have been slashed across the border, while US till expects to hike rate, the US economy is also showing signs of slowing. ECB is also expected to raise rates in Q4 2019. EU have also adjusted its growth forecast.
Time to buy gold and sell S&P.
Watching is closely as if the price for S&P keeps moving up im closing my position, or i will be looking for a hedge position.
If you look closely you can find a hidden divergence in RSI and S&P on the daily chart.
ETH bullish channelI believe that ethereum has found its bottom and will bounce and wander around in this given channel. If it breaches any barrier on this channel, then adjust your positions accordingly!
NVDA nearing a generational buy zoneNVDA has investments in all of the major cutting edge tech areas. Industries like AI, self-driving, crypto, competitive gaming, and more. Very likely the stock will recover in the long term, however, investors want to know what to do today to maximize future gains.
A very simple analysis using fib retracements suggests potential trading range of $75 - $180 (notably a huge range). Much of where the price drifts will be dictated by the narrative and future earning guidance. Some may recall in 2016 the stock was trading in a tight range between $90 and - $100 and notable short-seller Andrew Left had initiated a short in the range before. I imagine he has since closed that position, but it brings to perspective the wide range and sentiment this name has experienced in the last two years.
The current trend is very bearish, and if previous gaps are filled to the downside its likely the stock doesn't find a bottom until it retests that $90-$100 range. I've drawn three different ghost feeds to demonstrate where I believe the price-path will be depending on positive, neutral and negative developments in the key factors driving price right now over the next 12 months.
If I was currently holding a long position I would be inclined to sell call spreads and/or buy puts. As I'm long term bullish on the name, I would be willing to cut these hedges at signs of heavy buying at key resistance. I would also re-balance my position nearer to $100, unless extreme weakness makes a double digit entry likely. Similarly, I would look to initiate a position by scaling in at key price levels like $120, $100, $90 and every $10 interval below $90 placing most of the position weight in the $90 - $100 area. Prudent use of short call options could provide short term capital while locking in decent entry zones as well.
For those that have been short, kudos, this must have been a profitable trade. There is likely some room to the downside left, but scaling out and covering at these same price points could reduce future drawn down risk and should be considered.
In summary, I think the company will be fine in the long term but near term there is substantial delta risk that should be handled accordingly.
AMZN news over the weekendHey fellow traders, haven't done this since last year but I'd like to go ahead and point out a couple things. At the very moment we are at very important key levels for a major move in either direction of the overall stock market. If I were to have to pick a direction for the following 2 weeks according to all the indexes and all the record breaking overbought parameters being shown all over the place, looks like an incredible opportunity to short almost everything. There is a catch though, amzn and other individual stocks look to have been taking a breather for the past week instead of completely cliff diving downwards. What does this mean? Doesn't really mean much except that bulls do have a chance at another move higher. With tons of FOMO (fear of missing out) and short volume, we could be looking at a very good sized squeeze upwards. Going into the weekend it feels as if some sort of very vital news will arrive that completely pushes the market another leg higher or carries on with the bear thesis of the market going lower. Could very well be the shutdown being lifted or china trade talks going well or could be the complete opposite. I personally have a few calls of some names and I have a few strangles in play on the indexes for next week. If things absolutely go wrong into Monday my strangles should help capture the move from either direction if we go higher my calls should drive up nicely. All in all a very great week for many who captured the big moves and also the pot stocks, be very careful into next week and hedge your positions in case of things going against you. I am personally long biased looking for a pop higher into next week before we head much lower into February but that's just me.
Time to Jump inThis monthly shows that it is a good time to buy this asset. If the markets continue volatility, this mining ETF will gain traction.
Predicting the volatility of the volatility. ETFs use VIX as a resource to automatically hedge their holdings. This requirement for hedging is expanding with the popularity of ETFs. The channel shows the range of price volatility due to ETP creator arbitrages to balance the ETFs' true value. I've outlined some short term predictions for the behavior of volatility. Remember, it's volatile to trade volatile stocks!
ABT - Abbott EUR hedged, correction setupLooking forward for further correction in Abbott, to weekly MA(200) / channel downside
Is it time to hedge stock holdings with an investment in gold?
Lagging and volatile global stocks, a strengthening US dollar, and prospects of slowed interest rate hikes combine to create a potentially bullish outlook for gold prices.
From its value of USD$2,925.51 on October 3rd, 2018, the S&P 500 has fallen 10.01% to USD$2,632.56/share. Over that same time period, the price of gold has appreciated 1.69% to USD$1,223.38/ounce. A continued downturn in US stocks coupled with a downturn in global stocks will work to potentially drive further appreciation of gold prices.
Current high levels of inflation, as indicated by growth in the US consumer price index and producer price index in 2018, should also work to create a favorable environment for gold prices. The United States has seen consumer price index and producer price index growth above 2% for every month of 2018 -- the last time these indicators observed growth in excess of 2% over 10 consecutive months was from June 2011 through April 2012, when the price of gold appreciated by 7.84%, and from May 2011 through March 2012, when the price of gold appreciated by 7.42% respectively.
Strength in the US dollar also supports a bullish environment for gold prices. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index’s current value of 96.9920 is at the highest level seen since June 2017. Historically, gold prices diverge from the value of the US dollar amid a downturn in the latter.
Prospects for deaccelerated interest rate hikes in 2019 by the US Federal Reserve also bolsters a long-term bull case for gold prices. A slowdown in the pace of interest rate hikes by the Fed will likely spark higher inflation of the US dollar, which may cause investors to increase gold holdings to hedge against inflation.
While indicators like a strengthening US dollar, volatile global stocks, and high inflation combine to form a bullish environment for gold, supply and demand levels for the precious metal tell a different story. According to GoldHub, supply levels of gold have held steady since 2010 while real demand for gold (by the technology and jewelry industry) has trailed off. Although the current macroeconomic environment appears favorable for an investment in gold, gold supply and demand levels actually work against this thesis. Investors seeking to hedge their stock holdings with an investment in gold should tread cautiously and plan for at least a 1-year holding period.
What do you all think about a potential investment in gold? Leave your comments below! We would love to engage in discussion and hear what everyone has to think.
Bullish market is on the run. SPX Euro hedged analysisLet's take a look at a different angle on multi year SPX run - SPX Euro hedged.
Almost 45 years of bullish market with price action in only the one upside channel, with 2 exceptions that were resulted to US recessions .
So what about 50% decline to early 2020x.
This Is Why You Hold GoldAs the SP500 has dived over the past two weeks, gold futures have finally started to incline after long and heavy tailwinds kept them from gaining traction. As we move into a more inflationary environment and the market outlook looks more bearish, gold will continue to provide be a classic hedge and we'll see futures rise. Silver futures are also an excellent hedge that has seen more volatility and is nicely poised for bullish ETF option plays on silver-tracking ETF's, for example. Now may be a good time to add gold and/or silver to your portfolio, either with futures or ETFs.
