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Silver & Gold. Long? Short?Remain neutral/bearish on gold & silver until the US10Y, DXY, & Fed Funds Rates tops. This is the first time since the de-pegging of USD/Gold (in 1975) that interest rates & the USD have been rising. This creates an extremely tough environment for gold & silver to significantly rally being under pressure from high dollar & rising interest rates. Despite strong headwinds, there are many tailwinds as well that will lead many commodities prices higher such as, the clean transition, & the dollar (usd) devaluing. Chart: FED FUNDS Rate = Blue Line
TVC:SILVER
by brandonmattis
Gold - a hedge against inflation?"Gold is a hedge against inflation!" You must have heard that. Everyone has. That's textbook doctrine. But, in reality, is it? how has gold behaved since we have really started talking about inflation? Inflation has continued to rise, but gold has continued to...fall. I saw a youtuber interviewing people around Wall Street asking them for advice with one young, well dressed man says to "buy gold!" But gold actually works just like anything else. You buy it, price goes down, you lose money. Gold is not behaving the textbook way. It is not acting like a hedge against inflation. It has not been a good place to store money when inflation is high. We are currently 23 weeks into a downtrend. Price looks like it will continue down because Gold closed well below a very strong support. Gold is EXTREMELY tradable. And, it should be traded. It's not a good place for parking money right now, but it is a great place to trade. However, I do feel that the current trading environment is tricky, money can be made and is being made. Where will price go? I think there is potential for price to go to 1300 or 1200. I think from that point, there could be a bottom and a bullish run up to around 2000. This is just my opinion and idea. But, what will gold do? While there is inflation, you can come out on top having a good trading plan. All the best to you.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Shanktown
Gold & Silver - Best Investment Options in a RecessionWhen the stock market takes a nosedive, people tend to flock to safe investment options such as gold and silver. As a result, these precious metals tend to see an increase in demand during economic downturn, as well as following them. This makes sense because there are many advantages that come from investing in gold and silver during turbulent times. They’re non-correlated assets with low correlation to other asset classes, which makes them ideal for those who want to diversify their portfolio. Moreover, both of these commodities have inherent value. Even if the economy tanks and stock prices plummet, gold and silver will always be worth something – which isn’t true for stocks or most other financial assets. Gold is a safe haven in times of recession Gold’s role as a safe haven in times of recession can be seen in both the 2001 and 2008 global financial crises. When the US and many other countries were experiencing recessions, gold’s price increased. This is because many investors use gold as a defensive investment. In fact, many financial advisers recommend that one should own at least 10% of their portfolio in gold during economic downturns. When other investments such as the stock market aren’t doing well, it’s nice to have a backup that will still hold its value. Contrary to popular belief, gold’s performance isn’t tied to the health of the US economy. In fact, gold tends to do better during times of economic instability. This is because the precious metal is seen as a safe haven when the rest of the economy struggles. Performance of Gold during 01 & 08 Gold pays dividends Yes, We know what you’re thinking. But in a literal sense, gold pays dividends. If you own physical gold (not just certificates), you can actually sell it to a gold refiner and receive cash. While doing this won’t earn you a passive income, it will allow you to turn your gold into money. Because gold has a relatively low interest rate, it’s not a good idea to invest in a gold-backed financial instrument. However, some companies mine gold, and you can buy shares in these companies. Essentially, you will be receiving dividends from these companies, some of which are large global firms. While there are a few gold stocks worth investing in, most aren’t worth the risk. This is because many companies that mine gold are risky, unstable investments. That said, some gold stocks pay large dividends, making them a good choice for investors who want to earn passive income from their investments. Our projections for Gold Minning ETFs Barrick Gold (NYSE:GOLD) Gold is a hedge against inflation As we mentioned earlier, gold is a hedge against inflation. What this means is that when inflation rises, gold’s value tends to increase. In the United States, consumers have experienced inflation in the past. In fact, inflation rates have been steadily rising since 2009, and they show no signs of slowing down. As the Federal Reserve continues to increase interest rates, consumers can expect to see more inflation in the near future. As a result, it’s a good idea to hedge against inflation by investing in gold. While inflation makes it difficult to pay off debts, it’s actually a good thing for gold investors. That’s because a little bit of inflation is actually good for gold prices. Silver is also worth considering during recessions Like gold, silver is a precious metal. During recessions, silver tends to increase in price, and it’s often a good investment choice for people who want to diversify their portfolio. Silver has several advantages over gold, making it ideal for some investors. For one thing, silver is less expensive than gold. That makes it cheaper to buy and sell. Silver is also more plentiful than gold, making it easier to find and mine. While both gold and silver are great investment options, silver also tends to do better in times of economic instability. DXY Conclusion All in all, there are a number of reasons that gold and silver are the best investment options during a recession. Both of these commodities have inherent value, unlike stocks and many other financial assets. Furthermore, they’re non-correlated assets that are less likely to be affected by economic downturns than most other assets. During times of economic instability, demand for gold and silver increases, causing their prices to rise. This makes them ideal for investors who want to diversify their portfolio without incurring too much risk.
TVC:SILVERLong
by EQTSHARES
How to Calculate the Delta of a HedgeHere I've gone into the options calculator and got the 1% difference in delta for the Hedges I write about. For this hedge (JHQTX) The delta at strikes are as follows: SPX goes down 1% 4030 - 0.0616 3990 - 0.17 Dealer Needs to Sell 0.108 of delta To calculate how much that is for this strategy. Delta * Price * 100 shares * # of Contracts 0.108 * 4030 * 100 * 7000 = $304,668,000 to buy or sell for 1% move in SPX. Since the funds hedge is currently in negative gamma territory, the hedging flows will flow with the market (sell the rips, buy the dips). This is the smaller of the 3 funds. I updated the big one last night because Fridays decline brought it closer to volatility zone, but is still providing supportive flows (sell as SPX goes up and buy as SPX goes down) The big fund (JHEQX) delta flows currently look like this. SPX goes down 1% 4047 - 0.66 4007 - 0.53 Dealer Needs to Buy 0.13 of Delta per 1% move down SPX Delta * Price * 100 shares * # of Contracts 0.13 * 4047 * 100 * 46000 = 2,420,106,000 to buy or sell for 1% move in SPX. For now, even with the smaller fund expiry in 2 days, the big funds delta hedging flows cancel out its impact and adds supportive hedging flows greater than 7x of the expiring small fund. These flows change rapidly as implied volatility rises or falls. So any 1% change today is likely to be different than 1% change tomorrow. The next set of charts I will chart how higher or lower volatility changes effect these dynamic hedged deltas. —— DISCLAIMER — The delta numbers are approximate based on an options calculator and may not be accurate as brokers buying/selling. This information is intended for educational purpose only. I chart these funds to learn the strategies and effects on the market. If you see a mistake please point it out. Thanks for reading.
SP:SPX
by SPYvsGME
8
XAGUSD Spot Silver LONG - Reversal from Double BottomOANDA:XAGUSD Spot silver put in a triple top in early March into early April on the daily chart. It then descended over the next three months in what may end up being the leading side of a cup and handle pattern into a bottom about July 13th. Spot silver then rose a bit over the next five weeks and now has retested the bottom now forming a double bottom. Relative strength was gradually decreasing over this time while underneath its Ichimoku cloud. However beginning about July 15th, the relative strength began increasing and is now above the cloud. The leading cloud edge to the right is red and rising. This is a hint of bullish divergence perhaps forecasting the reversal is in progress. That said, I see spot silver reversing to an uptrend which could also be the right side of a cup and handle pattern underway. If formed a cup and handle pattern suggests bullish continuation. I see this an an excellent swing long setup with potentially 40% upside.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by AwesomeAvani
How a 17 Billion Fund Hedges DeltaJHEQX - 17 Billion Fund - Delta Hedging Flows Today, I’m breaking down the hedging flows of the JHEQX strategy I have been following. The idea is simple. Large fund means you know the dealers position on the trade. Since they remain delta neutral, one can anticipate if the dealer will be buying or selling delta as the price moves up or down. POSITIVE GAMMA (Supportive) Dealer will Buy SPX / Futures during a decline and Sell SPX / Futures during a Rally. When the trade is Positive Gamma it acts as a supportive force for the markets. As the price of SPX moves down near the put strikes, the strategy delta hedging will flip negative. NEGATIVE GAMMA ( Volatility ) Dealers delta hedging will move in the same direction as the market. Sell lower, Buy higher. When the trade is negative Gamma it increases volatility in the market. DELTA GRAPH The delta graph represents the rate of change and direction this strategies deltas will move. You can see today (Aug 28) the curve is muted and doesn’t change quickly. Inversely, the deltas rate of change accelerates the closer to expiry the options get. How does that help? For one, you know where the strategy moves from a positive to negative gamma (is volatile or supportive). Two, you can anticipate the magnitude of volatility or support.
SP:SPX
by SPYvsGME
2
XAGUSD BULL SETUP OANDA:XAGUSD XAG is shown of the daily chart. has long-term resistance at 24.39. At present, it has been trending on an arc with may represent the downward slope of a cup and handle pattern. Moreover, a Hull Moving Average over 90 days shows a good pit to the price action. The RSI candles confirm the price action with low strength at price lows then an inflection to gain strength and vice-versa. XAGUSD had a triple top in mid-March to mid-April and now appears to be setting up a double bottom. The Hull Moving Average is now on an uptrend as is the trend arc line. as potentially the upside of the cup in the cup and handle is forming. I see a swing trade long with adds whenever the price action touches or crossing the hull moving average, the arc line and /or low RSI on the oscillator.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by AwesomeAvani
Bitcoin The Trend Is Your Friend? Resistance Ahead.We're a couple weeks away in to seeing if we will break out of our sloping resistance we've formed since November 10th which officially marked the top of the bull market and start of the bear market. Ideally we would want to be holding above $24,000 to continue the uptrend we started since June 18th. If we can not successfully break out of this downtrend there's a strong likelihood that we fall back below a sub $20,000 Bitcoin. We will know something by the end of September. Between $19,000 - $24,000 is the range we've been trading since June. A lot of price interaction and support around the $20k - $21k price range on the visible range bars.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by peacefuljustin
$RDBX a market hedge? 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management Today my team entered Redbox Entertainment $RDBX at $5.70 per share. We set an automatic stop loss at $5.45 which would be a - On our other platform we entered with a small entry at $3.46 on Thursday last week (Private message us for details). It would've been our quickest trading view gain if we had posted it on here which is a bummer. Our goal is to show you guys where we believe the money is about to flow so we apologize for not alerting anyone on here. We believe that it could run tomorrow as well and reap even wider gains, so we wanted to give you guys the heads up before it departs for good. We feel confident in that stop-loss, but if it does then we will be taken out of the trade and suffer a small loss. If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
RLong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
7
MANA- Market is weak, we need to HedgeMANA is my selected Short for the day. Close to 1.0860 Resistance it's ideal (to me) for a short position with SL over 1.10 At the same time check my previous posts/ideas for my other set-ups and most importantly look at this: Mondays are Red🩸 Ends are Weak💤 Yet we Rise✔️ We might as well have patience and yes: the market will most likely continue to rise but not on a straight line. DYOR and learn how to trade: it does pay out eventually. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR
Short
by FX_Professor
2
TDOC (zoom in from bigger picture idea)I posted the bigger picture view in my previous post where I provided the context for this idea, which is my near-term projection with 2 most likely paths of price action from current level)... see context overview below: To summarize: - the main pattern I am watching is the completion of wave C of an expanded flat - this is potentially wave II of a larger cycle, invalidated if price drops below 9. A local bottom at 27.30 on May 12 fits the criteria as the 5th subwave of C of this expanded flat, which would make it a 2.00 retracement of wave B of that EF (wave B is also my primary wave 5 at the all time high (ATH) of 308 back in Feb. 2021. - (1) - (2) of circle C was a double combo off correction off the ATH that broke down and has been forming the Z of a triple combo off the ATH that encompasses wave circle C of the expanded flat - (3) - (4) of circle C ended in an expanding triangle around the 1.618 retracement of circle B, this resulted in a nasty gap down to the level that TDOC went public (~28).. this was necessary to realize the 5th and final count of circle C, and also to retest TDOCs IPO level for support. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- So now were here. The goal of the big money seems to accumulating shares and establishing a bottom at larger cycle wave II before beginning mark up. The move off the new low has the setup to be very explosive upside for a couple reasons: - it will simultaneously complete the expanded flat correction and the primary corrective wave - there is a massive gap to fill to the upside - potential for short squeeze with over 23% float, and the entire market is a dangerous enviroment for shorts right now if names like TDOC, SPOT, EPAM, etc. (i.e. solid companies with significant near-term upside potential) trigger the squeeze Here's what the chart and the math is telling me for TDOC - there is room next week to make a run to low-mid 40s (point target 46) and complete E of the new triangle forming at (5) of circle C. There is also evidence that wyckoff accumulation began after the gap down and is now in either phase b or c. -if c, then the spring was just realized at D of the blue triangle, and the next thing we will see is a sign of strength to a level > blue A. Looking at the trendline resistance through the highs of blue A & C, TDOC just broke above that Friday 6/24, and made a low just above the resistance (indicating potential support). The marginal gap is at 46, so it is possible to see a test of marginal gap fill at 46, which would be the SoS, followed by a backup/retest of the upper triangle for support before markup. I am getting confluence for the initial target from current level = 46, so I am expecting that to be the next level reached from here {confluence: 46 is my time series forecast by July 15, 46 is the extrapolated level that will be realized if RSI makes it to around 70 and becomes oversold - bullish momentum pointing to that, 46 is the 0.382 of the upper part of previous triangle (i.e. (4) of circle C), and 46 is the marginal gap). Thus, if blue D was in fact the spring, then expect the solid black path to materialize and continue to around 60 (0.618 w.r.t (4) of circle C, and just above the nominal gap fill in the mid 50s). Would likely consolidate at ~60 before deciding if it has the fuel to begin larger cycle III. If so, the next target will be 93 by Jan. 2023. IF solid black path is realized then will likely see an impulse wave off the 2022 low that has just begun to materialize. - if we are only in phase b of the wyckoff accumulation, then it is likely the spring will be at a lower low around 14-19. So the dotted black path is second most likely and would look like: - pop to 46 to complete blue E - drop to 14-19 to complete (5) of circle C, Z of triple combo, and ultimately larger cycle II - pop to low 50s to mark the SoS - retest triangle resistance around mid 30s - pop to 0.618 at ~60, consolidate, and then continue toward 90s by early 2023 * indication in favor of solid black path materializing is via a proprietary method I developed using stochastic differntial equations. I won't go into the details here, but I have learned not to bet against it when it gives a bullish signal - I got that signal Friday 6/24. Also, the fact that we got bought up at the critical support around the IPO price is a good sign it doesn't need to make a new low... however, if they want to do one more shakeout before markup then they will take it lower ** indication in favor of dotted black line materializing is that the DMI at the daily level does not yet show the properties I'd expect to see if spring was already realized (sorry not shown), it does, however, exhibit the properties of a spring already occuring at the 2-4 hour intervals. Also, I use proprietary control charts as supplemental analysis and they indicate there is moderate probability that after 42-46 there will be risk to 14-19. Here is my plan of action based on the above, as well as the linked idea of the bigger picture (this is not financial advice): - Buying shares Monday and will add in the bounce zone of 14-19 if given the opportunity - Buying Jul 8 2022 35.00 calls and looking to sell when underlying reaches 42 and then 46 next week (both paths are pointing to initial target of 46) - Buying Oct 21 2022 50.00 calls with expectation we see solid black path, hedging with July 15 30.00 puts in case we see dotted black path - in which case I will exit the Oct calls if TDOC closes below 32 and then re-enter Oct 21 45.00 calls once TDOC bounces at 14-19 using the profits from the hedge. Bye.
NYSE:TDOCLong
by JerryManders
Plan for potential "ape" spreadJust a small idea. I like this company; been trading it since 2018 and the pandemic. "In case" the Monkeypox virus spreads, this could be a decent hedge. We saw $SIGA with huge gaps last week (similar play), which likely will open higher on Monday. According to one source; It's spread through droplets and/or contact with infected lesions; skin contact coughs, etc. In other words, this is nothing you only inhale, like Covid" By that, hospital staff would need to wear full protective gear (In worst-case scenario). Alpha Pro Tech makes "high-value disposable Personal Protective Apparel and masks", and I, therefore, expect it to extend its weekly base building and breakout. Entered Thursday. Had a nice PocketPivot and wedge BO from Friday. Stop: 5% start. When 5% gained -> moved to B/E before trailing 5%/ma10. Not my classic setup, but there are not any good breakouts in this market anyway :) Good luck next week.
AMEX:APTLong
by TechFille006
Hedge for High Interest RatesHere is great high interest rate hedge. While I wanted to use USINTR to compare, it didn't look obvious for easy analysis, so I used USIRYY instead since both are greatly correlated. The Fed keeps talking like a dove but acting like a hawk: like promising soft landings from transitory inflation, yet suddenly choosing rare 75 bps increase, even though they previously implied 50 bps would be the most. So, I expect next few rate raisings will be at least that much, possibly a full point even during this summer. That would be great for this ETF going up, which is currently on sale, thanks to more direct & intense QT from the Federal Reserve.
AMEX:PFIXLong
by roelds
$DXY oil vs the dollar 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management* If CPI tomorrow reports elevated inflation, we suspect that $DXY will fall down to its next support. When the dollar weakens it should send oil prices even higher. !! This chart analysis is for reference purposes only !! If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
TVC:DXYShort
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney