Megaphone - BearishSPY weekly looking interesting heading into the week. Staying hedged with the SPY holding another megaphone. The SPY is being carried by buyer volume with some hidden bearish divergence on the RSI and nearing overbought territory yet again.
With so many sectors and indexes flashing red and a massive bearish cipher on the weekly timeframe as further confirmation, looking forward to playing the downside.
Some FIB levels and RSI-based supply and demand zones to keep an eye on in the meantime (Accompanying Charts Attached Below)
Hedged
NDAQ - Make or Break SpotNDAQ Consolidating and is looking like it's in quite the make-or-break spot. Definitely will be keeping an eye on the Nasdaq and broader markets, the NDAQ has a double bottom off of the lower trendline, while simultaneously all other signs point bearish. Death cross on both the MACD as well as the 50-day SMA crossing below the 200-day SMA, accompanied by a bearish cipher as further confirmation of a trend. Just some support and resistance levels to keep an eye on in the interim, along with some RSI-based supply and demand zones, staying hedged, and staying cash.
MSCI ACWI vs MSCI ACWI hedged EURTwo ETFs are compared:
SPDR MSCI ACWI UCITS ETF EUR Hedged Acc
iShares MSCI ACWI UCITS ETF Acc
The first ETF followed the MSCI ACWI Index, while the second ETF traded in EURO (for investors in Europe) but denominated in Dollar didn't.
The EURO lost against the Dollar almost the same amount as much as the former unhedged ETF won against the hedged ETF.
Even though the market "fell", the denomination of the ETF is Dollar -> so once it's converted to Euro the price rises for European investors.
Once the FED will return to a more dovish course and the Yields for US Bonds will drop, the currency rate will return, here EU investors will see not rising prices but falling one in denominated Dollar ETFs.
It's an opportunity to buy EURO hedged ETFs.
Classic 10x While HEDGED''Oh Professor, I am a directional trader, I don't make money when I blend my positions. Hedging doesn't work for me''
Well, once again, I can assure you that hedging does work.
Many charts and many tokens, some will rise and some will fall.
In a market that changes direction in seconds you probably want to reconsider..
My message to my Turkish brother, while having some coffee. Also my message to you too.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR
Ps. i have bad weeks and i have good weeks, i have bad days and months and good days and months but at the end of the day i enjoy trading without stress. Get rid of people and things that stress you out, trade as a GAME first and with money you can play with and use your real buying power to selct good SPOT and accumulate between now and 2024-2025. Just my humble opinion, you are on Tradingview where we supposed to all be logical, grown ups. You look, you listen or you post and you always decide what YOU will do with YOUR money.
ATOM IDEA GOES AS NEUTRAL SINCE IT'S CLOSE TO TAKE PROFIT LEVEL AT 17,34$
EURTRY - Forex PerfectionFirstly, a Perfect entry:
Secondly and most importantly:
EURTRY Long perfectly hedged the EURUSD Short from 1,23 to parity:
Not sure how impressed anyone might be but hey: professor proved the nickname with this set...
Not to mention that is also hedges EURAUD Short now (that has replaced EURUSD short):
Been killing it, couldn't have asked for more.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR
Keep in touch for More!
SPY- Bearish Megaphone - UpdateJust posting another update here on the SPY- Bearish megaphone is playing out as previously charted. The SPY rejected its 200day SMA the other day and now the 50-day SMA has crossed under the 200-Day SMA (Death Cross). The SPY formed a bearish butterfly harmonic pattern on the Hourly timeframe as well as a big head and shoulders on the weekly timeframe (See Attached Chart Below).
Some FIB levels and RSI-based supply and demand zones to keep an eye on in the meantime, bearish and hedged- (Previous Charts Attached Below)
-- Weekly Timeframe --
-- Hourly Timeframe --
-- Previously Charted --
Hedge stock trades call in NCM/ Put on ASX ( ASX50 stocks)
Using strategies from Street smarts - two opposite set ups to hedge out market risk on June Options
Call on NCM - this is a modified ' momentum pinball ' set up anticipating a correction back up to middle of range only after ABC correction ; at money June calls 400 shares worth
Put on ASX - this is a new high then correction > 20 days High failure; called' Turtle Soup plus one ;
looking for typical correction based on previous negative drives and take profit above previous support ( old Highs);
at money Puts 100 shares worth only ( as hedged leg of trade 1 above - not a perfect hedge as missing 30 shares so skewed delta Positive market slightly ).
003 PIGGISH PLAY - ER Long - CRWD - Enter Post-Retracement $66003. Piggish Play - CRWD ER Long
- Company is a strong, recent IPO
- Sector is hot, IPOs are hotter, ER whisper vs. consensus is very positive
- Chart is rare because it is a very bullish 2019 IPO with a perfect Fib-fitting in place already
- Usually recent IPOs can be difficult to play, but this one had the Corona-luck of drawing out key areas
-Instructions are in chart for how I''m playing it.***
**Will not be entering until broader market correction lightens in volatility.
***Alternative Entry if it does not retrace all the way to $66 week before earnings: Downward Approach + Hold $70
Piggish Rating: 92/100 because it is an unproven IPO, after all.
NASDAQ:CRWD
Trading key-levels and how to HEDGE properly (+486 pips)Is it true that the Forex Market is manipulated and controlled by a handful of banks and market makers? If so, how can we identify when they manipulate the forex markets and is it something that requires access to sophisticated tools and secret contacts? Well, let’s begin by getting a few facts straight. Firstly it is true that the forex markets are manipulated and while you don’t need any sophisticated tools or secret contacts to understand how this happens, identifying when it happens is not easy for the majority of retails traders.
What most traders fail to appreciate is what the financial markets truly are and how to trade forex properly. The Forex markets is a place where buyers and sellers come together facilitated by brokers and market makers who look to profit by making a commission for each transaction. Just like any other market, buyers and sellers can only come together if there is a middleman facilitating the transaction. This middleman in the case of Forex is the market maker, and their job is simply to match buy and sell orders for the best price possible and earn the most commission that they can on each transaction.
How forex works – Buyer & Seller Counterparties
Every trade that is executed in the forex markets has to have a buyer and seller and when this takes place then we have a trade. This normally happens in a fraction of a second electronically but in essence, each time you enter a buy trade you are being matched with someone who is happy to enter a sell position and take the opposite side of your trade. If this doesn’t happen then there wouldn’t be a trade. Why is this so important? Because it highlights the problems that large banks have which small traders don’t. Any retail trader is able to place whatever position size they wish into the market without ever fearing slippage or bad fill. Granted slippage may take place during high impact news items such as central bank announcements but on the whole, most of the executed trades are done instantaneously.
Now if you’re a retail trader trading 1 standard Lot then you won’t have any problems with being filled at the price you want. Imagine you’re trading 100 Lots or 500 Lots or 1000 lots, these are larger positions to put into the market at any one time and it’s much more difficult to find someone to take the other side of the trade at the exact price and the exact time that you want and therefore might not be filled at a great price. Well, what could you do in such a situation? You have one of three options:
Option 1:
You could either bite the bullet and get executed at whatever price you are able to get, the only problem here is that you won’t be getting the best price possible for your trade which eats into your profits.
Option 2:
You could wait for the price to get to the price level you want so that you get the best execution possible and buy or sell at a much more favorable price – this is great but what if the price doesn’t get to the level you want for you to execute your trade? You will either be forced to walk away without making a trade or be forced to take whatever price you can get if doing the trade is absolutely essential
Option 3:
You force the price to get to the level at which you want to transact by cleverly manipulating other smaller traders to push the market in the direction you want it to go. Once you get the price to the level you want then you can carry out your transaction. How can you do this? By taking massive positions and exercising your muscle. This is similar to when large companies and conglomerates bully smaller businesses out of the market through aggressive competition.
Best Options…
Which option do market makers and those with large orders take? Option 3. This is how manipulation works in simplicity. The big players who have the money to move the market in the direction they want, do so on a regular basis. What’s more, they have no option but to do this because unless they can manipulate the market then they won’t be able to execute their large orders. Think about it – what causes the price to move up? An imbalance of buy and sell orders such that there are more buy orders than sell orders which means there is more demand for that particular currency pair than there is supply. Conversely, what causes the price to fall – a larger build up of sell orders than buy orders such that supply outstrips demand thereby resulting in price falling. Now if a market maker comes into the market with a massive order to buy a currency, what will happen to the price? It will start to rise. This means that the market maker is bidding the price higher and so forcing himself to keep buying at higher and higher prices until their order is filled. This hardly sounds attractive or even smart for that matter as the market maker is in the business of maximizing their profits.
So what is the alternative?
The only alternative is to buy or sell in a hidden way without alerting all the other traders as to what is really happening. How does this take place? By buying into selling pressure or selling into buying pressure. In other words, what a market maker will do is do the opposite of what they intend to do in order to push the price to their desired level. What is a market maker? It is a financial intermediary set up with the sole purpose of matching buyers and sellers together to make a commission in the process. So let’s say a large European conglomerate wants to buy out a US company for $10 Billion. It can’t just go to a money exchange bureau or the bank to change that amount of money. Most likely it will go to a currency broker or a large bank who will complete the transaction by going into the money markets via their brokerage arm.
Once the market maker receives the order for the transaction, their job is to convert the conglomerate’s money from Euro’s into USD. They will, therefore, be trading the EUR/USD pair and selling Euro’s and buying USD. Since this transaction of selling Euros and buying USD happens instantaneously, what the market maker needs to do is get the highest exchange rate they can for Euros to USD. The way they do this is very important as it affects the amount of commission they stand to make. In this example, it’s in the market maker’s interest to achieve the highest interest rate they can so they do this by driving the exchange rate higher first and then starting to sell the euros against this higher price. They continue to sell just as everyone else is fooled into thinking that price is going to continue higher until eventually they sell all the euros and convert into USD and complete the transaction. What happens now is that since the selling pressure has become stronger than the buying pressure, price starts to fall rapidly and everyone is left scrambling to get out of the trade once they find out that they are wrong. The reason people are left scrambling is that as a result of giving a false signal of the market starting to move up, the market maker manages to entice other traders to start buying heavily. Once the other traders find out that they were wrong in their assessment of market direction, then the main focus becomes to get out of their positions quickly. This is what we call the trap and it happens on a weekly basis in the Forex market.
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*This is not financial advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor. Seek a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. I am not responsible for losses or gains that may or may not occur in the marketplace. Forex carries a high level of risk not suitable for all investors.*
Buying Gold whilst hedging by shorting Silver.With the possible trend lines for gold (GC1!), it looks like we saw a fake break out of that range today, culminating in a doji candle. This on its own is not a good enough buy signal - granted, but if we overlay the price of silver (SI1!), we see that silver has shown a high correlation with gold but with higher peaks and troughs.
With gold now at a point which I believe could be a new trough, silver has not yet kept up with this move.
Therefore, I plan to buy GC1! and sell SI1!, with the view that silver has yet to get to its more extreme move lower to keep in line with its relationship with gold, and that gold has potentially reached a turning point in its price movement and is about to head up in price.
I will exit the silver trade @ the trough of the gold move and aim to exit the gold trade once it reaches the top of the trending channel.