NatGas Rises from Lower Bollinger Bands, haDelta Turns PositiveNatural Gas jumped up today, rising from the lower Bollinger Bands and tagging the 21 day moving average. As the haDelta has also turned positive, I will be looking for a pullback to enter a long position.
Here is the Heikin-Ashi chart:
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Heikin-ashi
Gold Rallies at End of Day. Will it Continue?Gold fell to a new 2 week low during Wednesday's trading. That is, until the end of the day when the administration's tax plan was released and Gold rallied higher to close the trading session. However, Gold met resistance at the 21 day moving average and if you look at the Heikin-Ashi chart below, today's trading ended in a strong red Heikin-Ashi candle. That begs the question of whether or not the spike was an anomaly or not. The haDelta indicator is still red. I am still bearish and holding onto my short positions.
As I mentioned last night, there is a strong trading range from 1245 - 1265. I've now outlined that area with a green rectangle. I've also added 2 volume profiles to the chart (you can see them in their entirety on the very bottom chart). The long term Volume Profile dates from the beginning of 2016 to today. What's interesting is that the Point of Control is smack in the middle of that trading range. And that also coincides with the 23% fib retracement of the current year's rally.
The Point of Control on the short term Volume Profile is nearly at the same level as the 38% retracement. If price does drop in the coming days, these would be the areas of interest.
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NatGas Continues Bearish DeclineNatural Gas moved lower today, dropping .01 points. And another strong Heikin-Ashi candle, supported by a very bearish haDelta, gives us confidence that the downward trend will continue.
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Gold Closes Just under Important 21 Day Moving AverageGold closed down on Tuesday, just below the 21 day moving average. You can see that the body of Tuesday's candle covers the wick of yesterday's candle. That means that the sell-off today was not met by strong buying. We've also had 2 strong Heikin-Ashi candles in a row (see chart below). All indicators are pointing to a continued sell off and I am maintaining my first price target of 1235.30 which is the lower Bollinger Band.
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NatGas Drops to 1st Price Target at Lower Bollinger BandNatural Gas started the week with a sharp drop to a low of 3.031, hitting the lower Bollinger Band @ 3.03, which was my first profit target. This completed the coast to coast trade that begin with a short entry at 3.27 on April 5. After a week and a half of sideway motion and dojis, today's price drop was a welcome event. With both the haDelta and the Heikin-Ashi charts showing that a possible momentum speedup is in the works, I remain bearish.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
Gold Closes Lower & Hits Support at the 21 Day Moving AverageGold gapped lower on Sunday night and dropped to the 21 day moving average @ 1266. Even though price rebounded off that support area, the precious metal still closed well under the 7 day moving average and now seems like it wants to re-test Monday's low. We also had the first strong red Heikin-Ashi candle since the downturn from the upper Bollinger Band (see chart below). We will want to see more of these strong Heikin-Ashi candles to give us confidence that a strong downward move is in progress and not just a chop zone of sideways price action. The haDelta indicator is confirming the downtrend as well.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
NaturalGas Moves Sideways, Add Another Doji to the MixNatural Gas moved sideways again today, making that 4 dojis in the last 5 trading days. Trapped within the confines of the 7 and 21 day moving averages, today did close below the pair which is a positive sign for our short side position. I am still looking for a final push down to the 3.05 lower Bollinger Band.
The Heikin-Ashi chart confirms price is confined to a tiny sliver. At some point, we will see a major breakout. It may take awhile but when it does break, it should give us excellent trading action.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
Gold Trades in Tiny Range as Big News Weekend AwaitsGold closed up a point and a half today on an extremely low volatility day and ended the day trapped within the net of the 7 day moving average and the upper band of the Keltner Channel. I expect another quiet day tomorrow as the world is waiting for the results of the French election this weekend. If the populist candidate wins and the French decide they want out of the EU, this could create major disruption in the global markets. Gold could be the big winner in all of this as the precious metal would be seen as one of the last safe havens around. Even the Japanese Yen wouldn't be a safe haven bet while tensions with the North Koreans seems to mount every day.
So, while I am in the short trade, we all need to be on the watch for Black Swan events. This week may be the proverbial quiet before the storm!
But, until then, my technical analysis does show that Gold right now is a short side trade. In addition to everything I've been calling out the last week on this, I have drawn a couple of orange lines on the chart which show a clear divergence between the last high of the year from last Friday on the price chart verses the QStick indicator on the bottom. QStick is a Rate of Change indicator and it is showing that the month long bull run has lost it's steam. A pullback to the 21 day moving average at 1263 is very reasonable.
To complete the picture, take a look at the Heikin-Ashi chart. We've now had a red doji followed by a very weak red candle.
If you do stay in a trade over this potentially volatile weekend, please use good money management techniques to protect your account. :-)
Disclaimer: This post is for education purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
Gold Continues to Sell OffGold sold off sharply on Wednesday, closing the day down 8 points. The Heikin-Ashi candle finally turned red and the level on the QStick indicator at the bottom of the chart has now turned orange. All this signifies that the pressure to the downside continues. Whether or not this is anything more than a temporary selloff from the extremely overbought condition is still not clear. What is clear though is that further downward movement should bring price down to at least the 1263 area which is the mid point of the Bollinger Bands.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
Natural Gas Closes Between 7 and 21 Day Moving AveragesThe price of Natural Gas rose on Wednesday, hitting a high of 3.223 before selling off and closing at 3.143, smack in the middle of the 7 and 21 day moving averages. The slight rise in the closing price did cause the background of the haDelta indicator to turn blue. However, the QStick indicator below that is still showing downward movement. The Heikin Ashi chart below shows that there have now been 3 HA dojis in the last 4 days. While my bias is still to the downside, we'll need to pay close attention to price movement over the rest of the week.
Gold Moves Sideways in OverBought TerritoryAlthough Gold mostly moved sideways today, closing up 3 points on the day. As price moved up in late afternoon trading, I did enter a short position for the following reasons:
1. Price has stalled well into the overbought upper Bollinger Band territory
2. Friday's shooting star followed by Monday's doji indicate to me that the upward momentum is waning
3. Tuesday's candle stopped right at the upper Bollinger Band but not above it.
4. haDelta daily indicator has been red for 2 days
As gold continues to sell off after hours, I will be watching price reaction at the 7 day moving average at 1283.40. If price breaks through that level, I'll be looking for a continued move down to 1261.60, the mid point on the Bollinger Bands.
Baring an unexpected sell-off, it'll take another couple of days for the Heikin-Ashi candles to turn red.
NatGas Stalls at Key LevelNatural Gas stalled for the last 2 days and finally sold off today. There just wasn't enough power left in the recent bull move to climb above the 7 day moving average. Price is now wedged between the 7 and 21 day moving averages. If price does drop below the 21 day moving average, I expect that price would continue to at least the 3.00 level, which is the lower Bollinger Band.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
Gold Falters Amid Profit Taking at Over Bought LevelsGold closed flat on the day after pushing up into the 2 to 3 Std Dev Bollinger Bands. The low of the day was at the .618 Fib level. The daily haDelta also turned red today (top indicator) although the weekly haDelta remains bullish (middle indicator). So while it is clear that Gold is over bought, there is no confirmation yet that the uptrend is over. I will be watching to see the reaction at the 1277 level which is where both the 7 day moving average and the upper Keltner Channels are.
The Heikin Ashi candles remain bullish, both on the daily and weekly charts. This tells me that we are still in a buy the dip mode.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
Natural Gas Drops Below Upper Bollinger Bands to End 6 Week RiseOn Tuesday, Natural Gas dropped .10 points to close just above the 21 day moving average. This is a potential end to the last move up which began on Feb 22 of this year. If price can break through the 21 day moving average, I would expect price to continue selling off until a tag of the lower Bollinger Band which now sits at 2.9.
The potential downturn is supported by 2 consecutive red Heikin-Ashi candles and the haDelta indicator now turning red.
Gold Rallies and Pushes to Upper Bollinger BandGold rallied hard today, gaining almost 20 points on the day. On the way to the new monthly high for April, Gold shot past last Friday's high and didn't pause as it continued it's ascent to the outer Bollinger Band, which is set at 2 Std Dev from the midline. Monday's red Heikin-Ashi candle is now well in the rear-view mirror as well. And all along, the haDelta indicator did not flash red, staying a solid blue since April 4.
Most of the time, after a big move in Gold, the market pauses for a day before giving any signal of the next move. I am watching for a pullback to the inner 1.5 Bollinger Band (which is at 1270) which is also at the same level as the Keltner Channel (yellow). A nice rejection of that level would indicate that a new up wave in the precious metal is about to begin.
Bullish Heikin-Ashi chart
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
Gold Stays Range-Bound After Friday's KnockdownOn Monday, Gold closed up .8 points but did not recover any of the momentum after last Friday's explosive move up and then equally explosive sell off to end the day and the week. After that action last Friday, Gold continues to trade within a tight range that started on March 22. It is obvious that the Bollinger Bands are contracting and the haDelta is poised to cross over to the downside. In addition, Monday's Heikin-Ashi candle was red (see chart below). The overall outlook, at this point, is Neutral.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
Gold Recovers but Continues to Move SidewaysGold ended Wednesday down .6 points, making a late day recovery after selling off strongly to start the day. So while gold did close above the 7 day moving average, price continues to move sideways. The haDelta indicator is also still bullish but is showing definite signs of slowing down and even possible changing course. And if, in fact, price does move down, the haDelta would be showing a major diveregence between price and the last 2 peaks ( see yellow line )
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
Gold Falls Below Support LevelsGold closed down 3.7 points on Thursday, falling through support levels at the 7 day moving average and the inner Bollinger Band. While it's not clear if this is going to be a long or short lived downward correction, I am banking on price hitting the 21 day moving average at 1232.90. As I've said before, when price breaks through the 7 day moving average, the is a high statistical probability that price will then touch the 21 day moving average.
As for the Heikin-Ashi signals, we now have two consecutive red Heikin-Ashi candles and the daily haDelta indicator has turned red.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
Gold Stays Bound within Monday's RangeGold closed down 2 points on Wednesday, once again finding support at the confluence of moving averages and the inner Bollinger Band. While not moving lower than support, price stayed contained within Monday's candle and is setting up for a potential 'Rising Three Methods' pattern. This pattern starts with a long green body that is followed by three small body days, each fully contained within the range of the high and low of the first day. Then the fifth day closes at a new high. If this plays out, then Friday would be the day for price to hit the outer Bollinger Band which is now at 1267.30.
While the indicators are still green, the Heikin-Ashi candles are showing a potential end of the up move which you can see on the chart above. Certainly the Heikin-Ashi doji on Wednesday is not inspiring a lot of confidence for the bulls.
I recommend protecting your profits and tightening stops.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
Gold Closes Up Slightly After Intraday Touch of SupportGold closed up 2 points on Tuesday even as the US Dollar gained ground fueled by strong consumer data. After the news came out, the precious metal slowly slid down from a high of 1258.4 to the low of 1247. But there it met support from both the 7 and 8 day moving averages and the inner 1.0 Std Dev Bollinger Band.
I am still waiting for the tag of the upper Bollinger Band, which is currently @ 1266.60. All signals are still positive.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
Gold Gains and Penetrates Mid Bollinger BandGold moved higher today, gaining 10.2 point to close at 1255.7. After penetrating the middle Bollinger Band @ 1255.4 to hit a daily high of 1261, price closed just underneath that middle Bollinger Band. I am still expecting a tag of the outer Bollinger Band at 1266.10, which is my first profit target on this bull trade that started with an entry at 1220.
All signals are bullish, including the Heikin-Ashi candles.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.https://www.tradingview.com/x/Jf4JUTxT/