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Heikin-ashi

Gold Closes Below Moving AveragesOn Friday, Gold closed below the 6, 8 and 21 day moving averages to descend into the Ichimolu cloud for the first time since the end of January. The support at 1222 held up but the buying was not strong enough to force price back above the 21 day moving average. The close below the 8 day moving average the day before generated a Sell signal in my strategy and I am now long. I will talk about targets and where this bear move might be heading later in the week. Also note that I have written a new indicator that plots the Heikin Ashi bar color on the bottom of the chart. As you can see, there were 3 red Heikin Ashi candles to end last week. Before those 3, there was a yellow Heikin Ashi candle which I have coded to show Heikin Ashi dojis. Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that last week broke the trend of 4 consecutive up weeks. Not only was last week a down week, the candle is an outside candle signaling that a change in direction is about to happen. It is worth noting though that while price closed well within the Ichimoku cloud, it did close above the 21 weekly period moving average and that there has not yet been a change of color on the Heikin Ashi candles. This will have to change before we can definitively say that the bull run is 'officially' over. On the volume profile chart, you can see that price tried to move higher up the profile but then came back down and ended last week right at the long term POC. The next few days should confirm whether or not price will be moving below the POC or not. Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposed only and does not constitute trading advice. All trades you take are at your own risk.
COMEX:GCJ2017Short
by GoldBands
The End of the Gold RallyGold sold off sharply today, dropping 15.5 points and closing under all 3 moving averages on the chart, the 6 day, the 8 day and the 21 day moving averages. Gold now seems determined to head south. The first target should now be the lower red bollinger band. Chart update: now that the bull run is over, I've removed the intermediate and short term waves from the chart. In it's place, I've added a fib retracement that spans the date range from election night, 11/8/2016 through the present. It's very clear that Gold was not able to break through the .618 retracement level and is now trading at the .50 level. Gold is now knocking on the door of the Ichimoku cloud. With 2 strong red Heikin-Ashi candles, odds are that price will now move in to the cloud. The conservative trader will want to wait for price to emerge on the downside of the cloud before going short. More aggressive traders will want to go short now, placing stops at the 6 day moving average. The Volume Profile chart shows that the long term and short term POCs have move down and it is at this level the price closed today. This is more confirmation that the bull move is over.
COMEX:GCJ2017Short
by GoldBands
Gold Falls and then Rallies Off the 21 Day Moving AverageGold sold off in the overnight session to tag the 21 day moving average. The precious metal then reversed as the New York markets opened up and rallied to close between the 6 and 8 day moving averages. On the whole, gold rose a modest 1.5 points today. Today's doji shows that once again gold seems to be in a holding pattern and moving sideways. Although since this wave started at the end of January, all selloffs have been met with enthusiastic, if not aggressive, buying. The Heikin-Ashi chart is more bullish and shows that price is trading above the Ichimoku cloud and that the Chikou Span (lagging line) is also trading above price and the cloud. While overall bullish, it's important to observe that today's Heikin-Ashi candle was a red candle. This followed a Heikin-Ashi doji candle the day before. All adds up to some level of uncertainty. The volume profile chart is also bullish. Notice that the short and long term POCs are right at the same price as the 21 day moving average. That acted as a magnet for price today but then repelled price upward. This is very bullish suggesting that there is a pool of buyers camped out at the POC.
COMEX:GCJ2017Long
by GoldBands
Gold Retreats Prior to President's Speech before CongressThe bull run of Gold paused today as gold sold off, hit the 6 day moving average and then closed at the middle of the range. Today's doji is the second in a row. Unfortunately for the bulls, as the Asian session opens up, the precious metal is now trading below those moving averages. However, you can expect extra volatility tonight as the US president addresses a joint session of Congress. The Heikin-Ashi chart shows price right at the 8 day moving average. The doji today, while green, is signaling indecision. This makes sense as the world awaits Trump's speech. The somewhat elongated node in the long term Volume Profile on the left is acting as temporary resistance at 1256.
COMEX:GCJ2017
by GoldBands
Gold Pauses and Hits Resistance Gold traded higher in the first part of the day on Monday and then sold off in the afternoon to close at 1258.8. The day ended with a doji candle that had penetrated the upper BollingerBand but then sold off and closed between the 2 upper BBs. Remember the red BB is set to 2 Standard Deviations and the cyan BB is set to 1.5 Standard Deviations. Gold is also trading above the 6 and 8 day moving averages. All this supports a continued bullish outlook. This is also confirmed by the 3rd strong green Heikin-Ashi candle that you can see on the chart below. Until at least one of these changes, I will be maintaining my long positions. Finally, if you look at the long term volume profile on the chart below, I've put a rectangle around the area on the left where it looks like price is trying to fill in. There's a low volume node at 1280 that could act as a magnet and then resistance for price. Disclaimer: this post is for educational purposed only. Trading is at your own risk.
COMEX:GCJ2017Long
by GoldBands
Gold Continues to Move HigherOn Friday, Gold continued the rally started on Thursday and closed @ 1258, up 7.4 points on the day. This confirms that move up to the target zone of 1277, which would be the 1:1 target of the Major and Minor A waves (see chart). I have also marked a few higher targets if strong buying comes into the market. The 1.272 fib extension is very common and that has nice confluence with the round number of 1300. There are now 2 very strong Heikin-Ashi candles confirming the resumption of the bull move up. The weekly Hiekin-Ashi chart shows 8 weeks of strong upward movement. However, it's clear that price is moving into the middle of the Ichimoku cloud. Let's see if price can break through this week, If it's rejected here, then we'll have to re-think our wave counts and re-assess our long positions. Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
COMEX:GCJ2017Long
by GoldBands
Gold Closes Up 30 Cents and Stays Above Moving AveragesGold closed up 30 cents on the day to maintain it's position above the 6 and 8 day moving averages. It is also still above the extended closing price line (cyan). All in all, while Gold has been trading sideways for 2 weeks, it is still leaning to the bullish side. The Heikin-Ashi chart for the day shows a red doji for Tuesday's trading day. This could be a warning that signals the next move will be down. The volume profile chart clearly shows that Gold is trading under the upper value area on both short term and intermediate timeframes. Finally, I want to call out the sideways price action that has occurred after price penetrated the upper Bollinger Band. This is usually an indication that the next move will be towards the opposite Bollinger Band. This is what I call a Coast to Coast trade. While the first couple of charts show Gold as leaning to the Bullish side, the red doji and the Volume Profile and the BollingerBands seem to suggest that Gold as leaning to the Bearish side. Overall, I'm maintaining a neutral outlook. Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as advice on trading. All risk is your own.
COMEX:GCJ2017
by GoldBands
Gold Moves Up but Can't Break Resistance on Light Trading DayGold rose 2.1 points on Monday in very light trading as the US markets were closed in honor of President's Day. Gold penetrated the 6 and 8 day moving averages at the low of the day but closed above them. The precious metal is trading sideways for now. This sideways trading is even more pronounced on the Heikin-Ashi daily chart with 6 of the last 8 candles being Dojis. I've also added Ichimoku clouds to the chart. All the indicators are bullish, for now but I've seen Gold stay in these tight ranges for weeks at a time. The final chart tonight is the Volume Profile view. You can see that price has tried to poke out of the upper value area on the short term profile (on the right) but has so far failed in those attempts. It's also interesting that the upper value area on the intermediate term volume profile is just on top of this so there seems to be a lot of pressure containing Gold's upward movement. Disclaimer: This commentary is for educational purposes only and is not to be taken as trading advice.
COMEX:GCJ2017
by GoldBands
Gold Bounces Sharply Off the 21 Day MAGold sold off in the overnight session and tagged the 21 day MA at 1217.5 and then sharply rebounded to close just above the 6 and 8 day moving averages. I have been calling for a tag of that 21 day MA since Monday when price broke through the ice and closed below those moving averages. But now, price is trading above them and the future direction seems like it may be for Gold to rise and resume the C wave which would put the next target at 1276. Let's take a look at the Heikin-Ashi chart. There have been 4 doji candles in the last 5 days. That's a good indication of sideways price motion so we may need another day or 2 before the next direction is established. The volume profile chart shows a very elongated high volume node at 1226. I am watching to see if price will rotate back down and tag it and will it then continue to tag the POC? Or, is there enough strength to break past the short and intermediate term value areas? Again, we are in a waiting pattern. Disclaimer: comments here are for education purposes only and should not be taken as trade advice. All trading decisions are your own.
COMEX:GCJ2017
by GoldBands
Gold Continues Moving SidewaysGold closed up 3.1 points on Tuesday but that was basically a move sideways. There was some volatility in the morning when Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen began her testominy. But while the DXY dollar index had a strong move up, Gold stayed basically flat. However, it is clear on the chart that Gold is still trading under the 6 and 8 day moving average so my bias is still to the downside, expecting Gold to hit the 21 day moving average. At some point. Tonight I've combined the Heikin-Ashi chart with the Volume Profile chart. Today's candle was a Doji which signals either a reversal or continuation of the trend. If Gold does continue this downward trend, then I am still expecting price to hit the 21 day moving average or the gold line at the midpoint of the Bollinger Band. The final chart tonight is a Volume Profile chart with each profile representing a day's trading. The white line is the closing price for each 30 minutes. Notice how the POC acts like a magnet? Well, the 21 Day moving average (gold line) is also a magnet. Let's see if it can attract price tomorrow or at least by the end of the week. Disclaimer: this chart is for educational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice. Trade at your own risk.
COMEX:GCJ2017Short
by GoldBands
Gold Ends last Week with WeaknessGold rose for the second week in a row, ending the week at 1234.7, up 12.8 points for the week. However, after reaching a high of 1246.6 on Wednesday, Gold fell on Thursday and Friday, touching but not breaking through the 8 day moving average. So where does the precious metal go this week? Let's take a look at some of the technical indicators that I use. Gold broke through the 6 day moving average but not the 8 day ma. If price does close below the 8 day ma, then statistically, the odds are that price will fall and hit the 20 day ma or the midpoint of the Bollinger Band you see on the chart. I have also put a closing price line on the chart. The cyan line is pushed out 5 days into the future and offers a great look at where price may be going. Friday touched the this cyan line but did not break it. So far, this is slightly bullish for Gold, potentially saying that this pullback at the end of the week is will be short lived and that the bullish move will continue. On the bearish side, there are some compelling technical indicators as well. First, look at the Stochastic RSI at the bottom of this chart. The indicator has clearly breached the 80 line and it looks like the indicator will be cycling down. This is bearish. Below is the Volume Profile version of the chart. The profile on the left is from election day through present. The profile on the right is for the bull move up starting on December 15, 2016. Notice how the POC is the same on both. With POCs acting as magnets, this could pull price down to it, at around 1213. This would also be bearish. While there does seem to be some immediate bearishness in Gold, if the move up from the low of December 15, 2016 was in fact an A wave, then we are still expecting a C wave that will be equal or greater than the A wave. This is fundamental to Elliot Wave theory and would mean that this weakness is a simple corrective wave and that we should expect the C wave up to continue at some point in the near future. For now though, let's watch what happens if and when Gold gets to the 1213 level. That could be a strong pivot point.
COMEX:GCJ2017
by GoldBands