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BTC Daily - Heikin Ashi, MA, L&S/RatiosOverall Summary: Overall the last 7 days were bearish and I am bearish for the next 7 days. Bitcoin is trading in the $3600 to $4200 range during the last week, 81.5% down from the ATHs, with a market cap of $63 billion. The chart indicates a continuation of the current downtrend. The price is closest to the 50 MA with a trend towards the 50 MA. The volume has decreased over the last week, which is supporting the current price action. The Longs have decreased while the Shorts have has decreased during the last week. The L/S Ratio has decreased in convergence with the recent price action, a bearish signal. Finally the ATR has increased indicating an increase of market volatility. Detailed Summary: This chart uses daily Heikin Ashi Candlesticks with a custom trend bar indicator, 4 MAs (20, 50, 100 & 200), L&S, L/S Ratio & ATR Heikin Ashi candlesticks are great for trend and swing trading. Heikin Ashi means ‘average’ in Japanese because these candlesticks ‘average out’ price action vs traditional candlesticks that are based on OHLC (Open High Low Close). By averaging out price action this candlestick style reduces ‘noise’ and generates a much smoother chart pattern. This is helpful for trend traders as it is easier to identify the key trend in the market and to ignore smaller price volatility. During the last week the price has ranged by $500, opening at $3800 and closing at $3600. The price has decreased over the period which is a continuation of the long term price trend. Moving Average are also used on this chart to help identify major areas of S&R and general price trend action. I prefer to use simple Moving Averages on the daily time frame. The 200 MA is red, the 100 MA is orange, the 50 MA is yellow and the 20 MA is green. The choice of colours helps me to read the chart and see if price action is bullish or bearish. For example, if the red is on top and the green is on the bottom, it is clearly bullish. It is also important to note that the longer the Moving Average period, the stronger the support and resistance. During the last week the price is closest to the 50 Moving Average and during this period it has trended around the 50 Moving Average. The 50 Moving Average is currently acting as resistance while the 20 Moving Average is acting as support. The key Support area is $3300 and key Resistance areas is $4200. I forecast in the next week that price will test the next support area. Volume is a key indicator that I use to understand past, current and possibly future price action. Unfortunately a majority of the exchange volume is fake ‘wash’ trading so it is important to rely on data from reliable exchanges like Binance and BitFinex. Volume that supports price recent action helps strengthen my belief in a specific trend. During this period volume has decreased in convergence with the recent price action. On a longer term time frame, the volume is in convergence with the long term trends. I forecast in the next week that the volume will decrease and this will support a decrease of price. The Longs & Shorts data is from BitFinex, one of only two professional trade contracts exchanges with sufficient volume in the space, the other is BitMex. The number of contracts and the difference between the total longs vs short contracts is a valuable sentiment indicator. If there are too more longs than shorts, it implies that the market is currently more bullish. Extensive market manipulation by exchanges and whales, along with liquidity issues, often results in questionable market behaviour. Therefore longing and shorting with leverage, should nearly always be hedged and include very tight stop losses and realistic take profit targets. During the period the Longs decreased to 30,500 and the Shorts decreased to 23,000. The difference between Longs and Shorts is 7,500, a decrease of 2,000 during the period. When Longs & Shorts decrease and L&S slowly exits this means longs taken profit, shorts stopped which indicates a bearish reversal. I forecast over the next week that the Longs will decrease and the Shorts will decrease, which is bearish for the price. The L/S Ratio (Long/Short) is a popular barometer for investment sentiment. It is calculated by dividing the amount of security short selling (long) divided the actual amount borrowed and sold (short). If the Ratio is 1, then we have an equal amount of shorts and longs. This market oscillates and it is considered over-long or short if the ratio is higher than 60:40. This would imply a 0.66 short ratio or a 1.5 long ratio. More conservatively anything under 0.85 is over-shorted or over 1.25 is over longed. If this ratios are meet, the likelihood of a squeeze increases significantly. During this period the L/S Ratio decreased to 1.3 in convergence with the recent price action. This has decreased the probability of a long squeeze. I forecast in the next week that the L/S Ratio will decrease and this signals a decrease of price. The ATR (Average True Range) is a moving average indicator that measures volatility in the market. It is calculated by averaging the price volatility over a given period of time, say a week. ATR is a valuable risk management tool as it provides a clear signal of when markets are turning volatile or consolidating. As a trend trader using leverage, it guides me on setting stop losses and take profits levels while also telling me when to stay out of the market. During this period the ATR increased by 22 to 220. This signals an increase in market volatility. I forecast in the next week that the ATR will consolidate and this signals a decrease of price action and an decrease of price. References: Heikin Ashi summary - www.investopedia.com Moving Average summary - www.investopedia.com Support and Resistance summary - www.investopedia.com Fake exchange volume summary - www.blockchaintransparency.org Long summary - www.investopedia.com Short summary - www.investopedia.com L/S Ratio sumary - www.investopedia.com ATR summary - www.investopedia.com
GEMINI:BTCUSDShort
by CarbiArbittrage
BTC Daily - Heikin Ashi, MA (20,50,100,200), BB, RSI & MACDOverall Summary: Overall I am bearish. Bitcoin is trading in the $3600 to $4200 range during the last week, 81.5% down from the ATHs, with a market cap of $63 billion. The chart indicates a continuation of the current downtrend. The price is closest to the 50 MA with a trend towards the 50 MA. The volume has decreased over the last week, which is supporting the current price action. The RSI decreased in convergence with the recent price action, a bearish signal. Finally the MACD crossed below the Signal and Zero line, along with Histogram crossing below the Zero Line, in convergence with the recent price action, a bearish signal. Detailed Summary: This chart uses weekly Heikin Ashi Candlesticks with a customer trend bar indicator, Bollinger Bands, 4 MAs (20, 50, 100 & 200), RSI & MACD. Heikin Ashi candlesticks are great for trend and swing trading. Heikin Ashi means ‘average’ in Japanese because these candlesticks ‘average out’ price action vs traditional candlesticks that are based on OHLC (Open High Low Close). By averaging out price action this candlestick style reduces ‘noise’ and generates a much smoother chart pattern. This is helpful for trend traders as it is easier to identify the key trend in the market and to ignore smaller price volatility. During the last week the price has ranged by $500, opening at $4050 and closing at $3600. The price has decreased over the period which is a continuation of the long term price trend. The price is closest to the 50 Moving Average and during this period it has trended below the 50 Moving Average. The 20/50/100/200 Moving Average is currently acting as resistance while the 20/50/100/200 Moving Average is acting as support. The key Support and Resistance areas are $3309 and $3686. I forecast that price will increase/decrease/consolidate over the next week. Bollinger Bands are the two blue bands that ‘wrap’ around the security’s price. The top and bottom are two standard deviations away from the Moving Average. If the market becomes more volatile, the bands widen and vice versa. Historically 90% of the price action occurs with the Bollinger Bands, as the price oscillates around an equilibrium. There it helps us identify where the price is in the oscillating cycle so that we can identify entry/exit points and major price changes (on the 10% chance when price breaks through the Bolling Bands). During the last week the Bollinger Bands have expanded from $350 to $X550. The increase in the Bollinger Bands width was due to increased price volatility during the last week. The wicks broke through the upper band on 3 days, lower band on 5 days and stayed within the bands on 0 days. I forecast that Bollinger Bands will increase over the next week and overall trend is bearish. Volume is a key indicator that I use to understand past, current and possibly future price action. Unfortunately a majority of the exchange volume is fake ‘wash’ trading so it is important to rely on data from reliable exchanges like Binance and BitFinex. Volume that supports price recent action helps strengthen my belief in a specific trend. During this period volume has decreased in convergence with the recent price action. On a longer term time frame, the volume is in confluence with the long term trends. I forecast that volume will decrease and this will support a decrease of price over the next week. The RSI is a popular momentum based oscillator that helps us identify what stage in the security’s oscillation cycle it is most likely at. So after identifying the key market trend we can then apply the RSI to forecast future moves in price action (in terms of velocity and magnitude). This indicator is useful determining entry and exit points, for trend traders like myself, it is used on longer time frames as it is much more reliable. Most of the significant price action occurs around the 30 and 70 areas and ideally what we are looking for is divergence between the price action and the RSI. During the period the RSI decreased to 35 and it is in confluence with the recent price action. It has demonstrated a bearish failure swing is when the RSI rises towards 70 (considered overbought) and then RSI drops back below drops lower than its previous low. I forecast that RSI will decrease over the next week and this indicates a decrease of price over the next week. The MACD is a popular trend following momentum indicator that can help identify a security’s momentum, trend direction and duration. is a popular trend momentum indicator that can show us a security's overall trend. The core assumption of this indicator is that a security’s price oscillates around an equilibrium. Therefore by looking at the relationship between different MA calculations, we can identify what specific stage a security maybe of it oscillation cycle. This is why we have two lines, the first is called the MACD (26 - 12 day MA) and the second is called a Signal line (9 day MA). We also have a Histogram (MACD-Signal Line), which is the 1st thing I look at. Finally there is the Zero line, which is basically when the 26 and the 12 day are equal. The MACD , that combines several indicators, is worth watching when one or more of the following happens: crossovers (MACD/Signal/Histogram and Zero line), convergences/divergences between price and rapid changes. During this period the MACD has decreased in convergence with the recent price action. The MACD line crossed below the Signal line which was a bearish trend in convergence with the price action. The MACD crossed below the Zero line which was a bearish trend in convergence with the price action. And the MACD histogram crossed below the Zero line which was a bearish trend in convergence with the price action. I forecast that MACD will decrease over the next week and this indicates decrease of price over the next week. References: Heikin Ashit summary - www.investopedia.com Moving Average summary - www.investopedia.com Support and Resistance summary - www.investopedia.com Bollinger Bands summary - www.investopedia.com Fake exchange volume summary - www.blockchaintransparency.org RSI summary - www.investopedia.com MACD concise summary - www.investopedia.com
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by CarbiArbittrage
BTCW V.1 Chart - Heikin Ashi, MA 20, 50, 100 & 200, RSI & MACDOverall Summary: Overall I am bearish. Bitcoin is trading in the $3600 to $4200 range during the last week, 81.5% down from the ATHs, with a market cap of $63 billion. The chart indicates a continuation of the current downtrend. The price is closest to the 200 MA with a trend towards the 200 MA. The volume has decreased slightly over the last week, which is support the current price action. While the RSI and MACD is is also in confluence with the price action over the last week with both signalling bearish price action. Detailed Summary: This chart uses weekly Heikin Ashi Candlesticks with 4 MAs (20, 50, 100 & 200), RSI & MACD. Heikin Ashi candlesticks are great for trend and swing trading. Heikin Ashi means ‘average’ in Japanese because these candlesticks ‘average out’ price action vs traditional candlesticks that are based on OHLC (Open High Low Close). By averaging out price action this candlestick style reduces ‘noise’ and generates a much smoother chart pattern. This is helpful for trend traders as it is easier to identify the key trend in the market and to ignore smaller price volatility. During the last week the price has ranged by $500, opening at $4000 and closing at $3600. The price has decreased over the period which is a continuation of the long term price trend. The price is closest to the 200 Moving Average and during this period it has trended towards the 200 Moving Average. The 50 Moving Average is currently acting as resistance while the 200 Moving Average is acting as support. The key Support and Resistance areas are $3686 and $4185. I forecast that price will decrease over the next week. Volume is a key indicator that I use to understand past, current and possibly future price action. Unfortunately a majority of the exchange volume is fake ‘wash’ trading so it is important to rely on data from reliable exchanges like Binance and BitFinex. Volume that supports price recent action helps strengthen my belief in a specific trend. During this period volume has decreased in confluence with the recent price action. On a longer term time frame, the volume is in confluence with the long term trends. I forecast that volume will decrease and this will support a decrease of price over the next week. The RSI is a popular momentum based oscillator that helps us identify what stage in the security’s oscillation cycle it is most likely at. So after identifying the key market trend we can then apply the RSI to forecast future moves in price action (in terms of velocity and magnitude). This indicator is useful determining entry and exit points, for trend traders like myself, it is used on longer time frames as it is much more reliable. Most of the significant price action occurs around the 30 and 70 areas and ideally what we are looking for is divergence between the price action and the RSI. During the period the RSI increased/decreased/consolidated to X and it is in confluence/divergence with the recent price action. It has demonstrated a bearish failure swing is when the RSI rises above 30 (considered overbought), RSI drops back below 30 then RSI rises slightly but remains below 30 (remains below oversold) and finally RSI drops lower than its previous low. I forecast that RSI will decrease over the next week and this indicates decrease of price over the next week. The MACD is a popular trend following momentum indicator that can help identify a security’s momentum, trend direction and duration. is a popular trend momentum indicator that can show us a security's overall trend. The core assumption of this indicator is that a security’s price oscillates around an equilibrium. Therefore by looking at the relationship between different MA calculations, we can identify what specific stage a security maybe of it oscillation cycle. This is why we have two lines, the first is called the MACD (26 - 12 day MA) and the second is called a Signal line (9 day MA). We also have a Histogram (MACD-Signal Line), which is the 1st thing I look at. Finally there is the Zero line, which is basically when the 26 and the 12 day are equal. The MACD , that combines several indicators, is worth watching when one or more of the following happens: crossovers (MACD/Signal/Histogram and Zero line), convergences/divergences between price and rapid changes. During this period the MACD has decreased in confluence with the recent price action. The MACD line remained below the Signal line which was a bearish trend in convergence with the price action. The histogram is trending towards the Zero line which was a bullish trend in divergence with the price action. I forecast that MACD will decrease over the next week and this indicates decrease of price over the next week. References: Heikin Ashi concise summary - www.investopedia.com Moving Average concise summary - www.investopedia.com Support and Resistance summary - www.investopedia.com Fake exchange volume summary - www.blockchaintransparency.org RSI concise summary - www.investopedia.com MACD concise summary - www.investopedia.com
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by CarbiArbittrage
BTCUSD 1h - Heikin Ashi, Bollinger Bands, custom OBVOSC & MACDThis is a 1HR BTCUSD chart (BitFinex) using Heikin Ashi candlesticks, Bollinger Bands, EMA (9, 15, 21, 55), a custom OBVOSC indicator and a standard MACD - 5 days of price action review. Heikin Ashi is another Japanese candlestick pattern and HA actually means ‘average’ in Japanese. It does just that, averaging out price movements using a weighted calculation I won’t cover here (refer to Investopedia - www.investopedia.com ). Essentially, what you need to understand is that it smoothes out price action by reducing noise and making key trends easier to identify. This is great for trend traders, not so great for day traders that rely on volatility and short term price action. Over the five days, from the 2nd of January until the 7th of January, we saw prices continue to oscillate in a tight range from 3800- 4100 with little price action. The tightening and sideways action is typical of a market in indecision. Finally on the 6th of January Bitcoin broke out rising $300 within 5-15 minutes, apparently due to a massive whale buy order via BitStamp in Europe. Typically long upper shadows were achieved for only a few hours, with a price retracement showing weak support. Bollinger Bands , the three blue bands that ‘wrap’ around the BTC price, were developed by a guy called Bollinger. The top and bottom blue lines are simple 2 SMA away from the current price, while the line in the centre is the average of the two. The great things about this indicator is that we know, 90% of the price action will occur within these bands. And generally, if the price is at the top/bottom 20% of a band we are likely to see some price action towards the middle of that band in the near future. This is based on the simple concept that price’s oscillate around an equilibrium. Since the bullish price action on the 28th, the BB have remained fairly tight ranging from 100 - 300 USD. The upper line of the BB has been pierced on only 11 times until the breakthrough on the 6th, with 4 large consecutive bullish candle bodies outside the BB. The BB have blown out to 3800 to 4300 now but are quickly contracting as price action consolidates at the next level of S&R at 4100. One long lower shadow nearly pierced the lower BB already, as the level of S&R is likely to broken, expect future price action to touch on lower BB soon. Volume is one of the most reliable indicators but it is important that you understand how much wash trading is happening on most exchanges and choose to trade only on reliable exchanges (read this for more information). We saw a bearish volume from the 3rd to the 6th of January remain low and flat. On the 6th, a relatively small whale purchase resulted in a pump in the BTC price, which demonstrates the lack of liquidity in the market. Can think it kind of odd that a whale purchase 10 million in BTC in 5-10 minutes, why not layer those purchases in and get them at a lower price?? Remember that weak volume goes hand in hand with weak trending (price consolidation and sideways action). The volume quickly dropped after the 1 hour pump, with a large red candle on the 12th hour. IMHO Volume this low tends to indicate that it can’t be long and it the breakout could be bearish. The OBVOSC is a custom indicator by Lazy Bear (you can get it here for tradingview - ). It is an OBV ( On Balance Volume ) with an oscillator built into it. OBV is a momentum indicator that is running total of volume (both sell and buy volume). The assumption is that significant volume flow will often foreshadow a price change, which presents a trading opportunity. The OBVOSC on the 1HR is set on 9 hr so the indicator is quite sensitive and there is little lag between price action seen via candlesticks and the indicator. Therefore this indicator is good for identifying entry and exit areas that I can use for longer term trend trading. The market is primarily sideways with little volume volatility so it is not providing an clear entry/exit signals until the short bump in volume on the 6th. It clearly show the drop in volume after the bump, indicatingt to me a lack of follow through and volume support. As you can note, there are several false signals given out on a shorter time frame then the daily, therefore this indicator should be looked on the daily and then the hourly for a better perspective. The MACD (Moving Averages Convergence Divergence) indicator is a popular trend momentum indicator that can show us a security's overall trend. The core assumption of this indicator is that a security’s price oscillates around an equilibrium. Therefore by looking at the relationship between different MA calculations, we can identify what specific stage a security maybe of it oscillation cycle. This is why we have two lines, the first is called the MACD (26 - 12 hour MA) and the second is called a Signal line (9 hour MA). We also have a Histogram (MACD-Signal Line), which is the 1st thing I look at. Finally there is the Zero line, which is basically when the 26 and the 12 hour are equal. The MACD , that combines several indicators, is worth watching when one or more of the following happens: crossovers (MACD/Signal/Histogram and Zero line), convergences/divergences between price and rapid changes. Learn more about this at Investopedia. The first thing I look at is the Histogram as it is visually clear and it most often precedes MACD/Signal crossovers. The histogram oscillated around the zero line throughout the week until the 6th with 15 to -15. Again, on the 6th it bump to 30 (which is still not very significant) and an immediate decline in volume. The MACD crossed the Signal line several times without significant strength which tells me to avoid even short term trading on most of the oscillations except for the 3rd and the 6th. I think it is probably safer to wait for a pump, like on the 6th, and the short the security after a few hours of confluence. Overall the tight time range continued over the period until a final breakout on the upside, which was a surprise personally. Follow through support looks weak, so I expect that if this price will not hold for long and could lead to a capitulation to the mid 3000s in the next week.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by CarbiArbittrage
BTCUSD 1D - Heikin Ashi, Bollinger Bands, CCIOBV & ChaikinThis is a 1D BTCUSD chart (BitStamp) using Heikin Ashi candlesticks, Bollinger Bands, EMA (9, 15, 21, 55), a custom CCIOBV indicator and a CMF indicator. Reviewing 1 month. Heikin Ashi is another Japanese candlestick pattern and HA actually means ‘average’ in Japanese. It does just that, averaging out price movements using a weighted calculation I won’t cover here (refer to Investopedia - www.investopedia.com). Effectively what you need to understand is that it smoothes out price action by reducing noise and making key trends easier to identify. This is great for trend traders, not so great for day traders that rely on volatility and short term price action. Over the last month, we have seen 20 red candles and 10 green, the most bullish month in a while. Price action has consolidated after the large move down in November, oscillating around 1,000k over the month and clearly consolidating around the 4000 S&R area over the last week. The most recent price action over Xmas to New Years has been bearish to neutral, which trading volume down as most are away from their screens. Bollinger Bands, the three blue bands that ‘wrap’ around the BTC price, were developed by a guy called Bollinger. The top and bottom blue lines are simple 2 SMA away from the current price, while the line in the centre is the average of the two. The great things about this indicator is that we know, 90% of the price action will occur within these bands. And generally, if the price is at the top/bottom 20% of a band we are likely to see some price action towards the middle of that band in the near future. This is based on the simple concept that price’s oscillate around an equilibrium. Since the violent bearish price action in November the BB have gradually contracted. This reflects the tightening range of the price action over the last month of about 1k only. Note that the BB were much tighter, or contracted in November, then they are now so we could see this market consolidate more over the next few weeks before another breakout. This is probably the most valuable concept behind BB, called the squeeze, is basically the idea that as price bands tighten, they will eventually pop with price breaking out. At this price level a hedge, either up or down, is worth placing. Volume is one of the most reliable indicators but it is important that you understand how much wash trading is happening on most exchanges and choose to trade only on reliable exchanges (read this for more information - www.blockchaintransparency.org). The volume has declined since the 20th of December, diverging from the price action overall, and heading to levels not seen since early November (the last dump…) This is a very bearish signal IMHO, even after seasonal (Xmas etc) and factored in. Remember that weak volume goes hand in hand with weak trending (price consolidation and sideways action). For how long before another breakout is the question? IMHO Volume this low tends to indicate that it can’t be long and it the breakout could be bearish . The CCIOBV is a custom indicator by Lazy Bear (you can get it here - ). It combines two oscillators, the CCI (Commodity Channel Index) and OBV (On Balance Volume) and it’s complex to explain but it provides very interesting information. By simply colour coding the indicators, it is easy to read this indicator. Green for bullish, red for bearish and the Signal indicator is orange. Basically if the CCIOBV is green and above the orange Signal indicator, we are in a bullish trend. The CCIOBV key changes from red to green, vice versa, can clearly be seen by the vertical lines I have added to the chart. If I simply traded based on this indicator alone I would be a successful trader but simply buying and selling the day after the indicator changes colour and by looking at it’s relative position to the Signal line. It turned bearish on the 2nd of December and flipped bullish on the 16th, then tracked it all the way to 24th of December when it flipped bearish again until the end of the month. If you do just swing trade over several day periods, this indicator alone would make you money. Although it is bullish now, as it is sitting on the Signal line, it is not a low risk trade because the market is going sideways and we are approaching a possible breakout point. Without hedging it would be a risky trend trade IMHO. The Chaikin Oscillator (www.investopedia.com) is my final indicator, something I am testing at the moment but still not 100% confident with. Chaikin Oscillator is an indicator of the MACD, which is an indicator of the EMA, which is an indicator of the MA, which is an indicator of price action. I won’t get into the details of how it is calculated, but will try and describe what it tries to tell us. Technical analysts believe that the balance between buyers and sellers is what drives the markets. TA use indicators to measure the balance between buyers and sellers, including accumulation/distribution indicators like the Chaikin Oscillator. When the CO crosses the zero line, that is bullish buy action, and vice versa. Standard settings are 3 and 10 day EMAs, can make the indicator less responsive with 21 and 15, for example. The CO remained in negative territory until the 19th of December, when it switched positive. The indicator was lagging significantly compared with other indicators, but it does provide further confirmation of a change in volume. What is interesting to see since the 20th is a tightening of the CO around the zero line, indicating neither positive or negative. This sideways action may preclude a major price move. Overall I am neutral to longer term bearish. Although we have seen some bullish candlestick action, the follow through has not been strong and volume has been declining for the last week of the month. The CCIOBV offers no clear trend, although it is short term bullish. While the Chaikin Oscillator is sitting around the zero line, we see no strong bullish volume. The longer this goes on, the more bearish I will get.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CarbiArbittrage
BTCUSD 1D Heikin, RSI and MACD - Dec 17th, 2018This chart uses Heikin Ashi Candlesticks with CM TrendBars (21D), EMAs (9,15,21,55), RSI (13D, 80/20 ranges) and a MACD indicator. The Heikin Ashi candlesticks are a different type of candlestick pattern, meaning ‘average bar’ in Japanese, which reduce underlying noise and produce a smoother looking candlestick pattern. The ‘smoother’ candlestick patterns is because Heikin Ashi takes the price bar and averages out the prices, vs the traditional candlestick that simply uses the high and low of the session. As a result, it helps reduce false signals and therefore a Heikin Ashi chart tends to be more red in a downtrend than traditional chart styles. The candlestick pattern continues it's bearish trend, with no green candles since the 13th of November. We are seeing a tightening of the candle bodies over the last week, with spinning tops on 5 of the last 8 days. While the other three days were 'hanging' men candles with reasonably large bodies. This indicates indecision in the market, and consolidation, around the closest level of resistance, the 3285 print level. Today, with 3 hrs to go, could post the 1st green candle in 2 weeks but the day's has not yet closed. The RSI (Relative Strength Indicator) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. Once we have identified a trend in the market we can use the RSI to identify how strong that trend is (will it continue or reverse). I set the outliers at 80/20, that is below 20 it is oversold and above 80 it is overbought. Because we are in a long term downtrend, it is worth noting that the RSI will be in the under 20 more than above 80, and that I should consider 10 or below as a more reliable oversold signal. The RSI has remained below 30 since the 14th of November, and has hovered around the 20 area since the 28th of November (3 weeks). A minor point worth noting is that it has touched the 20 line three times since the 28th of November crossover and basically remained above 20. Over the same period the price range has continued to contract and remain in a tightening band. If we see the RSI break above 30 and head towards 65, this could indicate a trend change and a bullish signal. Until then, we really cannot make any trading positions on the current weak divergence. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is a trend following momentum indicator that shows the relationships between 2 MA's, the MACD (26-12 day MA) and the Signal line (9D). As we can safely assume that the two MA will move towards an equilibrium over time, we can make assertions about price in several key ways including crossovers, divergences between the two MAs, and divergence between the MACD and the price. The MACD Histogram = MACD - Signal Line, and it is simply a more visible indication of the difference between the true. The MACD Histogram is visually the clearest signal to read, and it provides the earliest indication of a possible trend change. Since the 26th of November it turned more bullish, crossing the 'zero' line on 2nd of December. It weakened from the 6-9th, but then returned to a more bullish trend. We saw the MACD cross over the Signal line on the 2nd of December, and as above touch it again on the 8th, before continuing it's bullish trend (although relatively weak) up until today. As the price has continued down since the 26th this is a clear divergence from the MACD and it indicates a lack of bearish strength and a possible price retracement/reversal in the future. If the market posts a green candle by the end of the day, this would add further confluence to the probability of a change in trend.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by CarbiArbittrage