Heikinashi
High prob low risk short sell - AUDUSDEntry on first good red candle around: 0.77908 1st target: 0.77194
BTC's push to $11kWill BTC keep enough steam to break $11k? It all depends on what the 1H Heikin Ashi candles do. In order for us to break $11k we will need some good steam on the 4H candles. That won't occur unless we can get a nice consolidation on the 1H before we head to the $11k mark. 4H candles have room to grow but the 1H are running out of steam for sure.
This is supported by the fact that the 1H candles are far off the Tenkan line. They will want to come back to the Tenkan line, which matches up with the RSI and fact that we are coming up to a good resistance level of $11k.
Let's keep an eye on BTC over the next few hours to see if it can build the steam to break $11k or if it will bounce off.
My prediction: If the 1H doesn't consolidate soon we will not have the steam to break $11k. We we can consolidate on the 1H, we can make it through $11k.
Bullish Convergence on BTCUSD formingWe have a bullish convergence forming on BTC currently. What this signals is that we are running out of room on the current downtrend momentum. We should see BTC make a flip and start on a bull run shortly. Being as this is on 4h candles I would assume this would occur over the next 24-48 hours.
Buy after next 'good' green candle on uptrend continuationTrend continuation. Buy after next 'good' green candle on uptrend.
possible sl: 133.524
1st two targets: 138.619 - 140.212
Crude Oil Continues Moving LowerCrude moved lower on Monday but ended the day in the middle of the daily range, unable to break through Friday's low of 46.74. Price also tested the weekly Pivot Point above at 48.13 but was not able to break above that mark. As long as crude trades below that Pivot Point, it indicateds that price wants to keep moving lower.
The Heikin-Ashi chart showed a slowing of the downward movement with an inside candle today. However, the trend is still solidly red.
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Crude Tests Higher After Inv RPT but Falls Below Key LevelsCrude tested higher this morning after the weekly inventory report showed a bigger than projected sell-off of inventory. However, WTI Crude failed to maintain it's bullish run and ended the day below the 2 important key levels. Those levels are the 21 day moving average @ 48.41 and the monthly pivot @ 48.13. And while the Elliot Wave Oscillator has not yet crossed below the 0 line, the haDelta indicator has printed a new magenta dot which indicates a new downward wave is starting. This gives the confluence of 3 technical indications to support the move down to the 45 to 45.50 price area.
Nice downtrend now on the Heikin-Ashi chart.
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Crude Oil Moves Down $1 but Fails to Close Below RangeCrude oil closed down $1 today. During the day, my first price target @ 48.36 was hit (I mentioned that in last night's post). Crude did hit a low of 47.73 but was unable to stay below the 48 price level, and in a something of show of strength, rebounded almost a dollar off the day's lows. The closing price of 47.73 was just 2 cents shy of the 21 day moving average.
So while the late day rally did show signs of strength, the technical indicators are still showing a more bearish outlook. First, there's the haDelta which has just printed a new magenta dot. That indicates a high probability of another downward wave. Second, the EWO indicator has been moving down since May 25 and is close to a zero line cross. Third, the Heikin-Ashi candles are red and starting to show signs of a continued downward trend.
The key levels right now are 21 day moving average and the Primary Pivot Point (orange lines). I've added the standard Pivot Point indicator to the chart and set the type to Fibonacci. The P level is currently at 48.13. A break below this level will increase the odds of a continued move down to the lower Bollinger Bands.
Crude Oil inventories come out tomorrow at 11 am EST. This is on Thursday this week due to the Monday holiday in the US. There is also other news tomorrow morning including Jobless Claims at 8:30 am EST and ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10 am EST. Expect some news generated volatility and protect your trades accordingly.
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Gold is Range BoundHi all, I've just gotten back from my extended vacation. The precious metal is range bound and looks like it wants to move down before completing a move up to tag the upper Bollinger Band. The weakness is appearing in the haDelta indicator at the bottom of the chart. A magenta dot just printed which means that the smoothed delta SMA is crossing over the non-smoothed delta. And since this is the second magenta dot in the latest upswing, it does suggest the price will either consolidate or move down.
The Heikin Ashi chart below is also showing a slowing of the uptrend. Let's see if we get some clarity over the next few days.
In case you're wondering about the new yellow Bollinger Band, I was watching a video that John Bollinger had posted on YouTube and it that video he mentioned that one should try using Bollinger Bands of different periods. So I've added a new Bollinger Band (the yellow one) and set the period to 50. This creates some interesting technical levels with the 21 and 50 BBs crossing and interacting with each other.
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Crude Oil is Range Bound But Looking to Hit Support AgainHi all, I've just gotten back from my extended vacation. Boy has there been a wild ride for crude, starting last Thursday. However, since then, crude has been stuck in the lower part of the range, which by the way, retraced to 38% of Thursday's range. Crude has already the 21 day moving average and it looks like it wants to test it again. If have a take profit order sitting at that 21 day moving average but will then let the rest of my position ride and see if price wants to break through and hit the lower Bollinger Band.
I was listening to a video that John Bollinger had posted on YouTube and it that video he mentioned that one should try using Bollinger Bands of different periods. So I've added a new Bollinger Band (the yellow one) and set the period to 50. This creates some interesting technical levels with the 21 and 50 BBs crossing and interacting with each other. For instance, notice how now the 21 and 50 BBs are stacked at the lower end of the range. That makes the 45.50 price are a very interesting target!
The Heikin Ashi chart is confirming that price is range bound and as you can see in the chart below, we've had a green doji followed by a red doji. Hopefully we will get more clarification from the Heikin Ashi in the days to come.
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Crude Closes Down .57 After Inventory AnnouncementCrude Oil had another down day on Wednesday, declining sharply after the inventory report was released. You can see the sharp selloff on the 30 minute chart below. Attempts to buy up crude at discounted prices were meet with renewed selling. All the indicators on the chart are red and pointing down. As I am going on vacation Friday, I'm hoping for a tag of the 47 level tonight or tomorrow.
The Heikin Ashi chart is clearly in a down trend.
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Natural Gas Stalls, Bollinger Bands ContractIn a clear sign that Natural Gas is range bound, the Bollinger Bands have flattened out and are contracting. Yesterday's closing price was trapped between the 7 and 21 day moving averages and today it is trading slightly above them. Monday's tag of the cyan Bollinger Band (1.5 standard deviation) signaled a potential renewal of selling but the lack of follow through supports the idea that price will be range bound for the time being.
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Gold Closes Lower, Dollar Strengthens on FOMC AnnoucementGold closed down almost 20 points today as the FOMC announced it would not raise the Fed interest rate in May but left a rate hike on the table for June. But regardless of that news, let's look at the technical aspects of the precious metal's chart.
First, the tag of the lower Bollinger Band was what I've been discussing during this bear selloff began in Mid April. This is what I call the 'Coast to Coast' trade, moving from one end of the Bollinger Band to the other.
Second, the haDelta indicator printed a magenta dot on Tuesday when the Delta crossed down under the smoother Delta average. This was a bearish signal and combined with the proximity of the lower Bollinger Band, gave statistical weight to holding onto a short position.
Third, the Heikin-Ashi candles are in a long red downward trajectory. Although last week ended with 2 weak HA candles, the candles have become stronger the last 2 days which indicates a possible resumption of the sell-off.
Now that the lower Bollinger Band has been hit, what is next? We need to watch price action over the next couple of days. If Gold is in an oversold state, then expect a correction to take place. This may result in some sideways action or in a sharp buying spurt. Or, there may be continued sell-off over the next couple of days. Watch the Heikin Ashi candles. If the trend is about to reverse, you will see Dojis and color changes. Also watch for a cross back over the 0 line of both the haDelta Indicator and Elliot Wave Oscillators.
I will be out on vacation for the next couple of weeks so I wish all of you good luck trading and protect your profits!
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Crude Oil Trades to a Low of 47.35 Before Rebounding SharplyCrude Oil dropped off 1.5 dollars, sharply breaking through the previous pivot low @ 48.20. However, at the end of the day, on the heals of the EIA report that there was a bigger than expected draw on crude oil inventories, the price of crude rebounded to close @ 48.10. In spite of the retracement, I am still bearish on Crude and expect a drop down to the trend line and lower Bollinger Band @ 47.00.
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Natural Gas Moves Lower, Closing under 21 Day Moving AverageNatural Gas moved lower on Tuesday, closing just under the 21 day moving average. In fact, it is smack in the middle of the 7 day and 21 day moving averages. A solid close under the 7 day moving average will put 3.00 clearly in our sights. We also have a change in the Heikin-Ashi candles, going red after Monday's red doji (see Heikin-Ashi chart below). We now need to see solid follow through to the downside.
I've drawn a couple of yellow lines on the chart, representing 'Hidden Divergence'. This is different than regular divergence and it doesn't happen that often. But when it does, you should take notice. It indicates that there is a potential change of direction coming and that the current trend is exhausted. In Hidden Divergence, the oscillator moves in the direction of the trend but price does not follow. In this case, the Elliot Wave Oscillator moved higher but price did not. As I said, Hidden Divergence doesn't happen all that often. I had to go back to April 27, 2015 for another example in Natural Gas and I've included that chart example below. It shows that the oscillator moved lower but price did not. There was also confluence with price hitting the lower Bollinger Band at the same time. Price did change direction and moved higher leading to a profitable trade.
Hidden Divergence and a close below the 21 day moving average are signs that a downward move is coming.
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Gold Closed Slightly Lower after Tagging SupportGold closed slightly lower on Tuesday, down .4 points. In early morning trading, Gold had moved down and touched the lower cyan Bollinger Band, which is 1.5 Std Deviations from the 21 day mid point moving average. The rest of the day was subdued, as we await the next move. The haDelta indicator did print a new magenta dot which indicates that more downside movement is likely. This reverses the yellow, bullish, dot that was printed on Monday. In addition, the Heikin-Ashi candles remain red and the Elliot Wave Oscillator is also solid red. At this point, it is statistically probably that gold will continue moving down at least until it hits the lower red Bollinger Band.
Tuesday's Heikin-Ashi candle was a good, strong red candle which was a very nice recovery from Monday's mixed candle that had wicks at both ends.
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Crude Oil Hits Target, Lower Targets in Site.Crude Oil continues to sell off in the afternoon session, blasting through the ice at the 48.20 pivot low I mentioned earlier. The next target is the 47.00 - 47.10 range where's a triple bottom from March and an upward moving trendline that began in April, 2016.
Crude Oil Continues Sell Off, 48.20 in SightMid-Day Update: Crude Oil continued to decline through the morning session today and looks intent on tagging the previous pivot low from 4/27 at 48.20.
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NatGas Hits Top of Range before Closing LowerNatGas started the day moving above Friday's high but missed touching the upper Bollinger Band. Price then reversed and NatGas ended the day below last Thursday and Friday's low (after tagging the 21 day moving average). This could all be leading to a narrow trading range while price consolidates. This idea is supported by the flattening out of the Bollinger Bands. If this is the case, then you want to sell at the upper Bollinger Band and buy at the lower Bollinger Band. For now, use your range trading plans.
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Gold Remains Under PressureDespite rumors of a Gold rally that permeated the ideashpere over the weekend, the precious metal continued to sell off today, closing near the bottom of the day and down 14 points. Last Friday's candle, while an up candle, still closed the day, and the week, under both the 7 and 21 day moving average. It was also a red Heikin-Ashi candle. In fact, all the indicators are also red. Finally, I want to point out the if price is trading under both 7 and 21 day moving averages, it is statistically probably that price will hit the lower Bollinger Bands. While nothing is 100% in trading, the odds are definitely in favor of touching the lower Bollinger Band. The haDelta indicator has printed a new magenta dot which signals that the smoothed moving average has turned down below the raw price delta.
I do want to call out that Monday's Heikin-Ashi candle did have an upper wick, which is not usually present in a strong trending situation. Let's treat this as a warning only and watch what happens when price does hit the lower Bollinger Band.
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Crude Remains Under Downward PressureCrude Oil sold off today, falling .43 points and continuing to stay well under the 7 day moving average. And while the haDelta indicator last Tuesday gave a potential reversal signal (see the yellow circle?), there is no indication that the downward wave is finished.
The bottom indicator is the Elliot Wave Oscillator. It, too, is showing strong downward movement. I am expecting price to keep moving lower towards the 47.70 - 47.15 range. The first is the lower Bollinger Band and the second is the yellow trend line.
Zoomed out chart to show the entire trend line.
The Heikin-Ashi chart shows that Monday's Heikin-Ashi candle was a decent recovery after last Firday's doji. While it wasn't the strongest of candles and is still inside of last Thursday's candle, it is still red and confirms the downward trend.
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NatGas Rises from Lower Bollinger Bands, haDelta Turns PositiveNatural Gas jumped up today, rising from the lower Bollinger Bands and tagging the 21 day moving average. As the haDelta has also turned positive, I will be looking for a pullback to enter a long position.
Here is the Heikin-Ashi chart:
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