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Brent bulls take a breath Brent touched fresh November 2018 highs yesterday. The price quickly jumped to $80,50 but failed to hold above the psychological $80 threshold and staged a correction which was purely technical by nature. On Friday, crude oil prices are oscillating above $79,50 area and struggle for direction after an aggressive rally. Traders continue to assess the potential consequences of renewed sanctions on Iran which further supports the bullish background and adds to positive market fundamentals. Current levels look quite justified as global glut has almost gone and concerns over the persistent oversupply turned into fears of a deficit amid the ongoing OPEC efforts, falling Venezuelan production, and the expected cut in Iranian oil exports. From the technical point of view, Brent looks overbought at current levels. On the other hand, the fact that the bulls dared to challenge the important and strong resistance of $80 highlights the potential for further rise remains. Prices need to return above the psychological barrier to avoid a more substantial profit taking ahead of the weekend.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Bitcoin may lose $8,000 Over the last month, BTCUSD is trading within the $8,000-10,000 range. Since May 5, when the price bumped into the psychological resistance of $10,000, the coin is mostly nursing losses. Bitcoin crashed to almost $8,000 overnight and tries to regain ground on Thursday, but the pair obviously lacks the bullish impetus. From the technical point of view, it looks like the digital currency is ready to make another break lower, and this risk persists as long as the price is trading below the 100-DMA at $8,800. The fact that the 100-DMA is below the 200-DMA signals a high probability of resuming the bearish trend in the short term. Should bitcoin finish the week above $8,000, the downside risk will somehow recede. On the whole, despite the cryptocurrency market remains rather volatile, the price moves have become more measured and logical. The BTCUSD pair is hardly ready for a rally at this stage, but the downside risks are limited either. Considering that bitcoin acceptance continues to grow, and more institutional investors engage in this industry, following a possible deeper retreat, the coin will attract decent demand.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Bitcoin at a crucial point BTCUSD tried to stage a recovery over the weekend, but failed to confirm a break above the 100-DMA around $8,800 and resumed the bearish move on Tuesday. Today, the price has lost around 6% already, and the sell-off could intensify, should the coin lose the key $8,000 mark. There are no any fundamental drivers behind the current moves in the cryptocurrency market where speculative and technical factors continue to prevail. Traders don’t dare to buy after a failed attempt to overcome the $10,000 figure and it looks like bitcoin needs some fresh bullish catalyst to break this psychological level. From the technical point of view, stochastic is signaling oversold conditions, so there is a chance for a recovery from the current levels. On the other hand, the moving averages point to bearish risks in the short term. To prevent further losses, the digital currency needs to bounce from one-month lows just above $8,000 and overcome the local resistance zone $8,400-8,500. Otherwise, the bearish move could accelerate, with the initial target at $7,850.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Gold needs to regain the 100-DMASpot gold is trading lower for a third day in a row on Tuesday, with recovery attempts failed amid the reemergence of dollar demand. The greenback makes a comeback due to another rise in the US Treasury yields above the key 3,00% mark. The yellow metal was rejected at the 100-DMA on Friday and resumed the downside move, probing the $1,310 level once again. Despite the dollar’s bullish impetus looks limited and unsustainable, gold keeps bleeding and remains vulnerable to further losses as the overall demand for the precious metal as a safe haven asset is quite muted. In the short term, gold may get an opportunity to recover or cut its intraday losses, should the buck resume the downside correction. This will depend on the incoming US retail sales data. In the bigger picture, the metal still needs to recover its ground above the 100-DMA which caps the upside. For this, a more sustainable dollar decline is necessary. On the downside, the $1,300 remains the key psychological support. At this stage, there is a low chance of a probing this level.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush
Brent: signs of overheated marketCrude oil prices send corrective signals since late Friday. Last Thursday, Brent almost hit $78, its highest since November 2014. The bulls didn’t dare to challenge this psychological barrier which fuelled a partial profit taking at attractive levels. The question is whether the price has formed a top, or it’s just a pause before another bullish wave? The recent rally was fuelled by concerns over Iranian oil supply after Trump announced reimposing sanctions on the Islamic Republic. But now, it looks like the market has already priced in this factor, so it becomes more sensitive to the bad news from the US. According to Baker Hughes, the number of oil rigs increased by 10 to 844 last week, which is another highest level since March 2015. The continued rise in the drilling activity signals the US production will increase further down the road. Besides, concerns over tightening supply have eased somehow following the UAE energy ministry’s comments on enough capacity to mitigate any disruption in the oil market amid the new US sanctions. From the technical point of view, the oil market looks overheated at this stage. Brent needs to regain the $77 figure – where the 20-DMA lies - in order to resume the ascent. Should the bulls fail to find enough impetus, the price will remain in the red and may threaten the $76 level, if the intermediate support at $76,50 gives up.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
BTC’s retreat is painful for short-term tradersThe cryptocurrency market continues to suffer losses on Friday, with Bitcoin is down almost 4% on the day. The coin failed to keep above the key $9,000 threshold and slipped to April 26 lows at $8,676. Should this level give up, we may see a decline towards $8,400 and then to the $8,000 area. Apart from the technical signals, which are getting more bearish after a break below $9,000 and the 100-DMA, there are some other drivers behind the continued correction from highs close to the $10,000 barrier. Some negative pressure came from Nvidia, as the tech firm predicted a big drop-off in cryptocurrency mining demand in the second quarter of 2018. Another source of the increased selling pressure was the news that Mt. Gox trustees have moved another $80 million of digital currency into cold storage. While the current retreat in the BTCUSD pair is rather painful for short-term traders who may continue to take profit in the nearest future, long-term holders of the digital currency still have nothing to worry about, as the price will likely rise again and challenge the December highs around $20,000 in a wider horizon.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
1
Brent set for further gains Crude oil prices refreshed late-2014 highs during the Asian hours on Thursday just below the $78 threshold. Now, it looks like Brent takes a pause after an aggressive rally on Trump’s decision to abandon the nuclear deal with Iran. After this step, which was widely expected, traders started to price in new sanction on Tehran and therefore the decline in Iranian oil exports and production, which fuels oil demand. In the current environment, when OPEC+ efforts coupled with geopolitical risks and the Venezuelan crisis support rising crude oil prices, the upcoming sanctions add to the already wide optimism in the industry as conditions in the global oil market continue to tighten, despite the record US shale production. At this stage, the prospects really look bullish, which on the other hand may prompt some OPEC members to pull out of the pact. Further fate of the agreement will be discussed at the key June meeting of producers. In the short-term, there is a risk of profit taking at the current attractive levels, especially ahead of the weekend and fresh Baker Hughes data due tomorrow. Should Brent fail to keep above the $77 level in the nearest future, the price may retreat towards the $76,30 area, where buyers could reemerge.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Bitcoin undergoes a healthy correctionBitcoin is nursing losses for the fourth day in a row, with the price tried to challenge the key psychological support at $9,000 earlier on Wednesday. Still, the current retreat looks natural and quite logical, as a break above the $10,000 threshold, strengthened by the 200-DMA, is not an easy task for the bulls. There are still no any significant drivers or triggers behind the move which looks rather technical than fundamental. Nevertheless, at this stage, the BTCUSD is entering a danger zone as a more sustainable movement below $9,000 will open the way to deeper bearish correction before buyers get into the game. Should the cryptocurrency lose this important level, we will see a dip to $8,800 where the 100-DMA lies. A break below may trigger a slide to $8,500 and even lower. In the short term, the digital currency will likely make fresh attempts to remain above the $9,000 area. However, buyers will likely wait for more attractive levels to come back.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Oil waits for Trump decision on Iran The oil market is looking forward the Trump’s decision on Iran. Investors continue to wonder, if the US President will announce today that he withdraws from the Iran nuclear deal and reimposes sanctions against Tehran. Over the last month, traders were pricing in the decline in Iranian oil exports and these expectations, coupled with the continuing OPEC efforts, have sent Brent to fresh late-2014 highs above the $76 threshold. Since early hours in Asia, the price is consolidating around the $75,50 mark as the market is on a wait-and-see mode ahead of Trump’s verdict. The risk is that the strategy “buy the rumor, sell the fact” may play out today, as traders may rush to a profit taking on the announcement following a short-term jump. While the market is focused on Iran, today’s API inventory data may remain unnoticed by investors. From the technical point of view, Brent needs to regain the $76 level to confirm further bullish impetus. As long as the price remains above the 20-DMA around $73,60, the upside risks prevail in the short term. Should the traders confirm the “sell the fact” trade, the mentioned moving average could serve as a support level.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Bitcoin doesn’t want to give upBTCUSD refreshed early-March highs over the weekend, but then corrected rather sharply and continues to retreat on Monday. The price reached the levels marginally below the key $10,000 barrier which is a magnet for bulls during the last couple of weeks. This level also coincides with the 200-DMA, so it’s even tougher to break to the upside. Many market participants blame recent Warren Buffett’s statement for the drop in price - the famous billionaire claimed bitcoin is worse than “rat poison squared.” However, the correction is more of a technical nature as the current retreat looks quite natural and healthy after the previous ascent, especially considering the importance and strength of the resistance formed by the $10,000 threshold. Therefore, we expect the coin to resume the bullish bias after this pause, which will open new opportunities for long-term investors. In the near term, it is essential for bitcoin to keep above the support at $9,000, as a break below could fuel a deeper correction.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Bitcoin bulls gearing up for jumpFollowing yesterday’s jump, bitcoin is trading with a bullish bias on Friday, with the $10,000 psychological level back in play. The price is back to mid-March highs around $9,800, but the buyers still hesitate to challenge the key barrier. The latest wave of optimism in the cryptocurrency markets was due to Goldman’s announcement - one of the most well-known investment banks plans to trade bitcoin futures contracts. The news inspired the market participants amid expectations that other large institutions could follow Goldman’s example in the future. Moreover, the announcement was taken as another sign of bitcoin acceptance among institutional investors and the digital currencies becoming more mainstream and popular on the whole. The recent ascent added to the positive technical picture, but the bulls may need some more time to test the key $10,000 barrier. A break above will open the way to fresh tops at $12,000 and higher. But to make the current bullishness sustained, the industry may need some more incentives and catalysts. Should traders proceed to a local profit taking in the short term, the immediate support comes just below the $9,500 mark.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Brent at the crossroads Crude oil prices struggle to stage a recovery after a correction from the fresh November 2014 highs close to $75. Brent is stuck around the $73 figure on Thursday, with the 20-DMA acts as support for bulls for the time being. Traders hope that Trump will reimpose sanctions against Tehran which will lead to lower oil exports and production from Iran, in addition to OPEC+ efforts and dramatic decline in Venezuelan production. However, the support from the “Iranian factor” looks limited as this scenario is already priced in now. Meanwhile, the US shale companies continue to build their activity, with production climbed to another record high last week, adding 0.3%, which limits Brent’s upside potential at this stage. As the price oscillates around $73, there is a chance for a recovery towards $73,60 in the short-term. This scenario will come true if the greenback continues its downside correction. But should the USD buyers reemerge, the bearish risks will play out, as there is a general uncertainty in the crude markets this week.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Bitcoin stuck around $9,000Following a failed attempt to test the important $10,000 barrier, bitcoin shows some signs of a minor correction. However, the downside risks remain limited as long as the price clings to $9,000 and holds mainly above the 100-DMA around $8,900. The bulls have retreated recently as the BTCUSD pair needs additional impetus to make a clear break above the mentioned psychological resistance. Corrective signals in the short-term charts look quite natural, but they don’t negate the possibility of another bull run from lower, more attractive levels down the road. In the nearest future, bitcoin may struggle to hold above $,9000, which means the 100-DMA could be tested again. Should we see a deeper bearish correction from the current levels, it is important to preserve the key local support at $8,600. In the bigger picture, the cryptocurrency still looks bullish, and the chance for climbing above $10,000 remains.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
1
Gold vulnerable for further lossesGold prices ended April lower, with a widespread dollar rally put the precious metal under intense bearish pressure. By the way, the greenback had its best month since the election of Donald Trump, as trade tensions continue to ease and the expectations over the Fed tightening path are increasing, fuelling the USD demand. In the near term, the yellow metal could continue to suffer losses as the American currency may gain support from the upcoming Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting that begins today. The markets expect to receive some “hawkish” signals from the policy makers who may highlight their readiness to hike in June. Another source of concern for gold bulls is the Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report where the wages data will be in the spotlight. Positive numbers could send the greenback even higher and therefore put the metal under additional pressure. As for technicals, spot gold closed below the key 100-DMA and now threatens the next major support at $1,310. Should the yellow metal fail to hold above this level, we could see a dip towards $1,307.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush
BTCUSD still targets $10KLast week, bitcoin refreshed mid-March highs just below the $9,800 level. Since this jump, the price is holding above the 100-DMA which now comes around the psychological support at $9,000. As technical indicators show, the BTCUSD pair set for further ascent in the short- and longer term. Besides the technicals and the overall improving sentiment in the industry, the developments in Malta support the market significantly as the island looks set to become one of the world’s most prominent blockchain havens. In particular, the country, which attracts more and more crypto projects all over the world, has developed three legislative bills in order to bringregulatory tactics to all future cryptocurrency exchanges. By the way, parliament has approved the bills which will likely become laws soon. From the technical point of view, bitcoin needs to keep above the mentioned moving average in order to preserve the bullish bias. The key immediate target for the digital currency remains at $10,000, and as the price managed to keep above the $8,500 support during the latest profit-taking retreat, the chances for testing this important barrier are increasing.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Bitcoin set for range-trading mode After a 10% decline, BTCUSD started to recover and climbed back above $9,000 on Friday. The latest retreat, triggered by profit taking and the sale of the Mt. Gox trustee funds, was taken as buying opportunity, and the $10,000 is back on investors’ radars. Good news for the industry this week is that cryptocurrency exchange Gemini announced its partnership with Nasdaq, which will allow the company to better monitor trading activities on its platform. Meanwhile, John Pfeffer, partner at Pfeffer Capital, said that bitcoin is the first real asset that could meaningfully replace gold. A quick rebound from lows around $8,600 highlights the cryptocurrency market is getting healthier and more consistent. The Relative Strength Index for bitcoin points to a neutral stance for the time being. It means that we may see some consolidation in the short term. The price will hardly break the psychologically important level $10,000 any time soon as the market will need some additional impetus to do it. On the other hand, there are no significant bearish signals as well. Therefore, the pair is likely to further oscillate around $9,000 looking for further direction.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
BTCUSD: $10k is a hard nut to crack Bitcoin price is sinking lower for a second day in a row as a result of a corrective retreat from mid-March highs. BTCUSD attracted sellers as it was trying to challenge the $10,000 mark on Wednesday, and since then, the price has dropped to the $8,600 area. The most obvious reason behind the fall is profit taking. It looks quite natural that some market participants decided to partially exit longs at six-week highs as the psychologically important $10,000 mark looks like a hard nut to crack from the first attempt. The depreciation could be exacerbated by the statement from the former CEO of PaypalBill Harris who called bitcoin “the greatest scam in history”. However, in the bigger picture, this message is not a major driver for the market, which has already got used to similar criticism. In April, the digital currency has appreciated an impressive 40%, and the bullish trend may well be resumed after a local correction, as the price is sinking to lower levels, which look more attractive for opening new long positions. The industry fundamentals look much healthier now, when the market has survived all the regulatory mess at its early stages.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Gold: all eyes on 100-DMA Following yesterday’s limited recovery attempts, spot gold prices are back under pressure. The yellow metal failed to keep above the $1,330 level and staged a retreat on Wednesday, threatening the $1,322 area once again. The key driver behind the metal’s bearishness and lack of sustainable upside impetus is the dollar’s widespread rally, fuelled by the 10-year US Treasury yields that jumped above 3% for the first time in four years. Should the yields continue the ascent after a break of a psychologically important level, gold could fall quite dramatically in the nearest future. The additional downside pressure on the yellow metal comes from easing North Korea tensions and the decreasing risk of a US-China trade war. As for technicals, the prices are now within striking distance from the key 100-DMA around the $1,318 figure. The metal is trading above this line since late December. Should the mentioned level give up, we could see another bearish wave, probably, to $1,1312 in the medium term. To cancel this scenario, the asset needs to climb firmly back above $1,335 zone.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush
Bitcoin bulls back in action Bitcoin gained more than 10% over the last week and continues its bullish ascent for a seventh day in a row. During the morning trading on Tuesday, the price has refreshed a 40-day high just below $9,300 and looks set for another leg higher. Earlier, the bull run has accelerated after a break above the $8,500 resistance. The current dynamics may show that the industry has already gone through major concerns over regulation around the globe. If so, the market will look healthier and more stable going forward. The local factor which could bring the digital currency a relief as tax-related selling ahead of the U.S. tax deadline last week is over. It looks like the cryptocurrency bull run is back. At least, technicals signal a substantial upside pressure over the last few days. A break above the 100-DMA around $9,100 also shows there is further growth potential in the short term, especially if we see a daily close above the psychologically important level $9,000. The next upside target is the $9,400 area which may turn out a rather strong local resistance.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Brent: profit taking is a buying opportunity Brent is trading in a corrective mode today after a nearly flat closing on Friday, with the barrel is now treading water around the $73 level. The current profit taking looks limited for the time being, and should the prices refrain from losing the intermediate support at $72,80, there will be a chance of regaining the bullish move in the short term. Aside from technical factors, positive sentiment in the crude market was tempered by further rise in the US drilling activity. As Baker Hughes reported, the drillers added five oil rigs in the week ended April 20, to 820, which is the highest since March 2015. It signals that another rise in the US crude production is on the way, and fresh data this week may confirm this dynamics. Meanwhile, Trump’s tweet on “artificially” boosted oil price had only limited and short-term impact on Brent. The broader picture in the oil market remains bullish as OPEC’s efforts, Venezuelan crisis and the risk of reimposing US sanctions against the Iranian exports continue to support prices which are also propped up by increasing global demand amid a steady growth in the global economy. However, in the short term, further downside correction is possible, which looks like a good buying opportunity with the prospect of a recovery above $74.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Bitcoin escapes the range After yesterday’s consolidation, BTCUSD has accelerated its ascent on Friday. The coin has finally managed to make a clear break above the $8,250 threshold and reached $8,500 for the first time since late March, up 3.5% on the day. The latest move is more of a technical nature, as there is no any meaningful news in the industry at the moment. It looks like bitcoin finally dared to follow altcoins which are growing substantially. Following a dip below $6,500 earlier this month, the digital currency was gradually recovering towards the $8,000 mark and spent a few days in a consolidation mode around this psychological level. Now, after a spectacular bullish break, the coin may target the next local resistance at $8,900 over the upcoming weekend. However, there is a risk of profit taking at the current levels, therefore, traders should be cautious with longs above the $8,000 figure which has become a support again. Should the retreat take place in the coming days, the pair will need to keep above the intermediate support at $7,840.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Oil bulls inspired by Saudi Arabia Crude oil prices jumped Thursday to the highest since late 2014 amid speculations that Saudi Arabia set for pushing prices even higher. US crude oil inventories decreased over the last week, which also supports the bullish move in the market. Tomorrow, OPEC and its partners will meet in Saudi Arabia, and market participants expect the group to announce its preliminary plans on prolongation of the deal in order to further support the global market. On Wednesday, it was reported that Saudi Arabia would like to see crude prices at $80 or even $100. This was taken as a signal that top oil exporter is committed to a longer-term cooperation in order to reach this goal for a successful Aramco IPO and funding its major economic reforms. Brent broke above the $74 mark and refreshed three-and-a-half-year tops around $74,70. The bulls were also inspired by crude inventories fall in the US, despite production continued to rise. From the technical point of view, prices may challenge the next psychological barrier at $75. However, to do this, the market needs strong signals from the upcoming producers’ meeting due tomorrow.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Bitcoin will stabilize after the US tax day BTCUSD registered a fresh three-day low on Tuesday and failed to close above the key $8,000 mark. However, today, the cryptocurrency jumped 3% in minutes and is trying to keep above the psychological level at the moment, +2.25% on the day. The cryptocurency market remains volatile, and in this case, it may well be connected with the US tax deadline. As the tax day passes, bitcoin could stabilize somehow, and its further prospects may get more bullish. As such, there is a growing chance of extending its recovery from lows below $6,500 to $8,500 and above. From the technical point of view, the key on the downside is the $7,600 area. It I important for the pair to keep above this local support in order to escape a more aggressive sell-off in the future. The goal for the bulls now is the intermediate resistance at $8,200. The digital currency needs a daily close above this figure to stage a more sustained ascent. There are short-term bearish risks for bitcoin, while its longer-term prospects look more constructive, despite the continued regulatory crackdown around the globe.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush