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Bitcion needs a move above $8,500After a 2% gain over the weekend, bitcoin price is correcting lower on Monday. However, the downside momentum looks limited for the time being, which highlights the decreasing volatility in the cryptocurrency market. BTCUSD rallied from $6,900 to levels close to $8,500 within seven days, and the current retreat looks quite natural from the technical point of view. Many market participants feared a major correction to take place after an abrupt rally, when the price spiked aggressively to $8,000 within just 30 minutes last week. But the digital currency stayed afloat and hasn’t fuelled profit taking, which may point to market stabilization and its nature which is gradually getting less speculative as day traders leave the industry. Going forward, however, it’s too early to call a bottom as sellers may still reemerge. In the short term, bitcoin needs to keep above the key $8,000 figure in order to continue its ascent. But the selling pressure could intensify around the $8,400-8,500 area. Cryptocurrency traders should always remember that sentiment in this space can shift very quickly.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Bitcoin back on a bull run?Since the start of April, bitcoin was mostly treading water below the $7,000 threshold. The volatility decreased, and there were no any interesting and significant drivers in the market as of late. But three days ago, the demand started to reemerge, and on Thursday, the digital currency jumped north aggressively. Today, BTCUSD continues to attract buyers, probing fresh April highs above $8,000. Interestingly, there was no any clear catalyst behind the rally. The cryptocurrency market in general saw major bullish spikes yesterday. Partly, the reason is a technical one as after numerous attempts to break below the support at $6,400, traders started to exit shorts which eventually caused a self-sustaining chain reaction. Therefore, the key driver behind the recent jump is just the easing selling pressure. It’s so far unclear, whether the virtual asset will be able to maintain the current bullish impetus. But the market is obviously remains volatile and unpredictable. Therefore, it’s better to be cautious for now as profit taking may emerge soon. So far, it’s too early to say that bitcoin is back on a bull run, as we need to see a more sustained and less emotional gains down the road.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Brent enjoys a “geopolitical rally” Crude oil prices climbed to the highest levels in more than three years Wednesday amid the ongoing tension in the Middle East. Brent touched levels above $73 and retreated to $72 today. The market remains bullish as there are lingering concerns over supply disruptions due to the Syrian factor as well as the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The already healthy rally was fuelled further yesterday by Donald Trump who warned Russia to prepare for a strike on its ally, Syria. So far, the president hasn’t taken decision on the matter, which caused some relief in the global markets and therefore has somehow eased the upside pressure on crude prices. Brent has ignored the negative US oil inventories data which showed larger than expected build, by 3,3M barrels, while production topped 10,5 mln for the first time. So, as the geopolitical concerns start to abate, crude oil could turn bearish, as there are no significant fundamentals behind the current rally which looks to aggressive from the technical point of view. To avoid such a scenario in the short-term, Brent needs to keep above the $72 mark. Daily close below may open the way to further correction.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Bullish signals for gold Gold prices climbed to one-week highs around $1346 Wednesday, as the greenback continues to decline against major currencies, retreating to two-week lows according to the USD index. The yellow metal is appreciating for a fourth straight day, also due to its safe haven status amid the lingering geopolitical concerns. Spot gold is yet to confirm its bullish move. As long as prices remain below $1,348, there is still a risk of resuming the slide in the short-term. The nearest test both for gold and the dollar is the upcoming US CPI data and minutes from the Federal Reserve's March meeting, due later today. Dismal inflation figures could intensify the bearish pressure on the buck, which will send the metal even higher. From the technical point of view, spot gold is ready for another bullish break in case of a successful retest of a local resistance $1,348. A break above will open the way to the next hurdle at $1,354. This scenario will realize in coming days, should the CPI and FOMC meeting minutes disappoint the USD. A fresh wave of trade war fears could also add to gold’s bullishness.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush
Will Brent challenge $70 again? Crude oil prices are extending this week’s recovery after a major sell-off on Friday, with Brent is approaching the $70 threshold for the first time since the start of the month. The barrel is up 1.18% on the day, and the key question now is whether the prices will have enough impetus to challenge the key psychological resistance in the short term. The major driver behind the current bullish dynamics is the abated fear of a US-China trade war which runs the risk of undermining the global economic growth and, therefore, global oil demand. Due to investors’ relief on this front, Brent has managed to shake off the bearish pressure for the time being. Nevertheless, the current picture doesn’t look sustainable as risky assets may come under pressure again, should any fresh signs of trade escalation emerge. In addition to this, there is a risk from the US data. Today’s API numbers may point to further inventory increase, and if the growth turns out substantial, the report may serve as a catalyst for profit taking at high and attractive levels. In this scenario, the asset will retreat from current highs below the $69 figure, though the bearish potential will likely be limited due to a favorable risk environment globally.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Bitcoin remains vulnerable After a three-day retreat, BTCUSD staged a rebound over the weekend and attempted to regain the $7,000 threshold on Monday but the sellers reemerged recently and sent the price into the negative territory again. Bitcoin is now down 1.75% on the day. Over the weekend, the digital currency broke several upside barriers as the sentiment in the industry has improved markedly. The reason for bulls awakening was the report that George Soros’s hedge fund is planning to trade cryptocurrencies. The news was especially impressive for the market as the famous billionaire called cryptocurrencies a bubble in January. In another sign of growing acceptance of bitcoin, Venrock, a venture capital firm that is backed by Rockefellers, is planning to start investing in virtual currencies to diversify its portfolio. These are good signals for the long-term future of the industry as more and more day traders leave the market, opening the way for large and institutional investors. This should provide the market with a healthier ground and to reduce its volatility which remains relatively high amid its speculative nature. As for the technicals, the current bearish move could be limited by the $6,400 support. In this case, the pair will maintain the opportunity to regain the $7,000 mark. But on the whole, bitcoin is still vulnerable, and recovery attempts will likely remain shallow for the time being.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
1
Bitcoin has a chance of recovery BTCUSD continues to suffer losses on Friday after yesterday’s drop by 1.2%. However, the price manages to keep above the key $6,400 mark so far, which prevents it from falling to early-April lows below $6,000. The cryptocurrency still fails to attract buyers and stage a rebound, trading in the negative territory for the second consecutive week. Despite all the headwinds, bitcoin has a chance to show a healthy recovery this month after a dismal March as April is historically considered as one of the best trading months for the digital currency. Over the last seven years, its price appreciated five times in April. Moreover, the potential buying of Monex Group by a major Japan’s regulated company Coincheck could add some optimism and confidence to the industry. From the technical point of view, the BTCUSD pair is trading around a critical point. Should the selling pressure intensify in the nearest future, and the price break below the $6,000 threshold, the virtual currency will be vulnerable to more aggressive losses, before buyers emerge. But in our base case scenario, we expect bitcion to meet buying interest around the above-mentioned psychological support, though the recovery process will hardly be fast and easy either.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Brent lacks bullish drivers Brent has recovered from yesterday’s two-week lows below $67 but lacks momentum to show a substantial corrective rebound on Thursday, oscillating around the $68 threshold. The markets look mixed on controversial US inventory data and signals from global stocks. The US crude oil stocks decreased sharply last week, but production continued to grow and hit fresh record volumes. The initial market reaction to the report was bullish, however, we don’t see any significant reason for a sustained rally in the context of US data as the threat from non-stop increasing production doesn’t abate. The only positive driver for Brent now is the potential reimposing US sanctions on Iran next month. But the market participants shouldn’t too rely on the prospects of a major decrease in Iranian exports as it was in 2012, because China will hardly join the action this time, given the severe trade tensions between two countries. Technically, Brent needs a clear break above the $68 level and enough bullish impetus to probe the local resistance of $68.40 which will open the way to $69. However, the current rebound in risky assets won’t be enough to fuel such a recovery as the market needs some additional drivers.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Another bumps in the road for bitcoinThe first quarter was the worst one in bitcoin’s history. And the start of Q2 doesn’t look promising either, though it may turn out better down the road. After yesterday’s corrective rebound, the digital currency failed to secure its gains and slides again. The price faced resistance around $7,500 and is losing the $7,000 threshold on Wednesday, -4.55% on the day. The recent short-term rally was fueled by reports that Japanese online brokerage firm Monex is considering buying Coincheck, the exchange which suffered a high-profile hack early this year. This gave some confidence to market participants as Monex is a regulated public company, and this takeover may raise chances for mainstream digital currency adoption. However, this boost wasn’t enough for a sustained recovery and the virtual currency had to resume the descent. It looks like the market participants now tend to sell bitcoin on rallies, fearing new negative shocks in the volatile market. On the other hand, as long as the price remains above the early-February lows of $5,800, the bullish potential remains. Therefore, the cryptocurrency may continue its consolidation within the familiar range in the short-term until more significant drivers pull the price out of this channel. Daily close below the $7,000 mark will darken the short-term technical outlook for BTCUSD.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
EURUSD in wait-and-see modeThe EURUSD pair continues to oscillate around the 1.23 level since last week, with the immediate obstacle for bulls is the 20-DMA which is now below 1.2350. The single currency obviously lacks the upside impetus and drivers to show a more consistent trading. However, the pair may receive the catalyst which will help it to decide on the direction, at least, in the short term. On Wednesday, the euro area CPI numbers are due. Core inflation is expected to have accelerated to 1.1% from 1.0% YoY in March. CPI is forecast to increase by 1.4% from 1.1%. Should the consumer prices really show a faster growth, the euro will get a bullish boost as strong inflation numbers is the key precondition for the ECB to exit stimulus and start raising interest rates. Another key event for EURUSD this week is Friday’s US NFP report. The dollar could rally if employment and earnings increase as it will be a signal for stronger inflation. Therefore, the volatility in the pair may increase substantially during this week and the euro may break the current trading range. On the upside, the key is the 1.2350 hurdle. A break above will open the way to the next bullish target 1.2420. Meanwhile, below 1.2280 the price will slide to 1.2240 and 1.22.
by HelenRush
BTCUSD set for corrective rebound Bitcoin is attempting to switch to a recovery mode on Monday after a major sell-off during the last week. The bullish momentum looks too timid so far to call a reversal from the area of two-month lows below $6,500, reached on Sunday. Having dipped to as low as $6,387.50 yesterday, BTCUSD is trying to regain the $7,000 mark as a break above will ease the immediate downside pressure. By the way, the cryptocurrency market was hit hard generally last week amid the never-ending fears over global regulation as well as crypto ads blocks by major social networks including Twitter. However, the current bearish trend starts to signal some signs of exhaustion and may come to an end in the nearest future. Technically, the digital currency is ready for a corrective rebound. Bitcoin managed to hold above the $6,000 threshold and looks attractive for buying at the same time. Following a break above $7,000, the price will target the next local resistance $7,600. The current levels may be especially interesting for long-term investors.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Bitcoin can’t stop bleedingBTCUSD is extending its bearish move on Friday, finishing March with losses of 40%. The downside pressure has intensified following a break below the $8,000 mark, and after failed attempts to regain this threshold, the bulls had to give up. The price was testing early-February lows below $6,600 in the morning, now and attempts to cut losses and climb back above $7,000 which is the immediate local resistance. The regulatory pressure on the industry has increased substantially recently. In another bearish sign, two more Japanese crypto exchanged had to cease their operations this week as both companies failed to secure a license from the nation’s Financial Services Agency. And more to come, with the regulator issues warnings to other trading platforms. The “Japanese factor” is a substantial blow for the cryptocurrency market as this is one of the countries that fuelled the crypto mania last year. Twitter’s decision to block crypto ads following similar steps from Google and Facebook, and Bank of Montreal’s resolution to ban its customers from using accounts to transact with cryptocurrency merchants, add to the gloomy short-term picture. Against this background, the downside risks for BTCUSD persist. At the same time, bitcoin will hardly severely extend its current bearish wave as some buyers may start to emerge and prevent it from crashing below $6,000 where fresh early-February lows lie.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Bitcoin enters the danger zoneBTCUSD continues to bleed since last Sunday and has now entered the danger zone. Should the cryptocyrrency fail to attract buyers in the short term, it may show an even more significant bearish wave. Bitcoin is probing fresh 11-day lows on Thursday, getting closer to the crucial $7,000 mark. In the charts, there is a distinct bearish signal. The 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average which is a death cross, traditionally warning about a sustainable downtrend. However, we should remember that we can’t fully apply similar traditional models to this market, so in this case, it could be just a signal for further sales for the time being, but not in the long term. Regulatory concerns are still there, and the recent crypto ads ban by such giants as Google, Facebook and Twitter don’t add optimism at all. The additional downside pressure came from China, where the PBOC said that they will launch crackdown on cryptocurrencies this year. Obviously, the industry is yet to overcome the regulatory challenges, and bearish risks from this front will continue to hurt digital assets down the road. But if positive long-term forecasts are anything to go by, bitcoin’s bearish periods are still good buying opportunities for patient investors.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Gold suffers amid month-end flows Gold prices edge lower on Wednesday as the greenback is on the rise against major rivals on the back of month-end flows, supporting the US currency. The trade war fears persist, and risk-off mood still prevails in the global stock markets. However, as the yellow metal has lost its shine as a safe haven asset, it doesn’t get any boost from the current environment. Spot gold is extending its bearish correction from mid-February highs just below the $1.357 mark and is already trading close to the $1.333 figure. A break below will open the way to $1.330, should the greenback continue its intraday ascent. As the USD’s bullish potential still looks limited, there is a low chance for extending the retreat to the $1.315 area for the time being. In the longer term, considering high volatility in the stock markets, especially in Wall Street, gold may eventually regain its safe haven status, should the potential trade war start to pose a threat to the global economy. The medium term prospects will further depend on USD moves. So far, there no any significant signs of a reversal in the current bearish trend in the greenback.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush
Brent eyes $70 ahead of API dataAfter the initial jump on Monday morning, crude oil prices lost their steam and retreated on a daily basis. Today, Brent is attempting to regain the bullish momentum but the impetus looks limited as the market eyes fresh weekly API data. Brent is treading water around $69.70, +0.36 per cent on the day. The overall tone in the market looks bullish and the asset feels the additional support from the improved risk sentiment as the trade war fears continue to recede. The bulls also hope for possible tighter sanctions on Iran. However, we wouldn’t assess this factor as positive for the longer-term prospects as Tehran may simply diversify its exports and find other buyers for its oil. Brent remains below the $70 threshold ahead of weekly API report. Should the numbers reflect just a modest increase in inventories, the current upside bias won’t be hurt much. Some market participants expect to see a drawdown of stockpiles. In this case, the barrel will likely attack the $70 level again, though the market will be traditionally more focused on the official EIA data due Wednesday. In the longer term, the market mood will continue to depend on US data as well as on further signals from OPEC.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Bitcoin: bulls need fresh entry pointsBTCUSD continues to trade in a bearish mode since Friday, after another failed attempt to break above the $9,000 mark. The digital currency is trading with a strong negative bias on Monday, losing over 6% on the day. The recent weakness in the market was mainly due to two major factors: the announced ads ban by Google, as well as the story between the Japanese Financial Service Authority and Binance exchange. But following the emotions, technical factors got into the game and now they set the tone for bitcoin, along with the ever-present speculative factor. The local bearishness may well send the virtual currency to one-week lows around $7,200 or even lower as the price is testing the $8,000 psychological support, signaling further losses ahead. As we remain more bullish over bitcoin’s longer-term prospects, another sell-off is likely just a new opportunity for opening long positions going forward. As soon as the current bearishness is exhausted, the speculators will likely start to look for fresh entry points, assuming that there are no any negative steps, reports and news in the industry in the nearest future. The key to the upside is the above mentioned barrier at $9,000. A break above could open the way to $12,000.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Bitcoin: rally is over?After a spectacular ascent earlier this week, bitcoin struggles to regain the bullish momentum. The price touched mid-March highs just above the $9,000 figure but failed to make a decisive break of the psychological level and gave up to the bears. The cryptocurrency is attempting to keep above $8,000 on Friday. The latest sell-off, though not a very aggressive one, came after reports of further crackdown on digital currencies by Japanese authorities. In particular, the national Financial Services Agency has issued a warning against Hong Kong-based cryptocurrency exchange Binance for operating in the country without registration. The regulator also warned about some penalties against the company. The regulatory warnings and actions are not new to the cryptocurrency market, and a relatively tepid bitcion response to the news confirms this. However, as Binance is the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by traded value, the industry may yet feel the impact from the potential steps by the Japanese regulators. By the way, against this backdrop, Binance is reported to plan opening an office in Malta which is considered by the company as “very progressive when it comes to crypto and fintech”. As for the technical picture, BTCUSD needs to close above the $8,000 level in order to avoid further bearish pressure in the short-term. The immediate local resistance lies at $8,700 – this is the barrier on the way to $9,000 and above.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
1
Brent and its fear of heights Crude oil prices extended a spectacular rally yesterday and touched early February highs around $69.50. But the major psychological resistance of $70 has scared the bulls, and Brent faded its earlier spike on Thursday, trading almost 1.5% lower on the day. The bullish move was recently fuelled by rising geopolitical tensions around Iran, increasing the risk of reduction in oil export from one of the largest OPEC producers. Against this background, traders started to eagerly price in a faster global market rebalancing after the expected introduction of new US sanctions against Tehran. The US inventory data gave the additional impetus to prices as the EIA reported a decline in crude oil inventories of 2.6 million barrels for the week to March 16. However, the rally was to aggressive and made Brent a bit overbought in the short-term charts. Besides, prices have reached very attractive levels for profit taking. So, the market participants decided to use this opportunity, which has triggered a downside correction. The barrel is now approaching the $68 mark, and to prevent a more aggressive retreat, the asset needs to keep above this area for now. The immediate risk for prices is the potential fresh wave of risk aversion on Trump’s announcement of new import tariffs against China.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Gold remains vulnerable Following yesterday’s sell-off, spot gold attempts to recover and resume the ascent, with prices fail to show a robust bullish move since mid-February, when the current downside correction started. Since the start of the week, the yellow metal can’t regain the $1.320 mark which is the key obstacle for bulls now. The local recovery attempts are limited by the $1.1318 level, and the bullion hasn’t recouped the yesterday’s losses yet. While the longer-term prospects for the market still look decent, the immediate risks are pointing to the downside. The precious metal could resume the bearish move, should the Fed hike rates today and signal a possibility of four hikes this year instead of three during the upcoming meeting. The new Fed governor Jerome Powell can give the markets some hawkish signals, as he did it in February. In this scenario, the greenback will appreciate across the board, which in will turn put gold under a bearish pressure. Meanwhile, the risk of a deeper sell-off in the medium term is rather low as long as spot gold keeps above the March low of $1.302.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush
Brent: bullish potential is limited Crude oil prices have resumed their ascent on Tuesday after mild losses overnight. Brent extended gains to fresh March highs around the $66.50 area where the barrel has bumped into resistance. Despite the current recovery, the bullish potential remains limited on the back of lingering concerns over the US shale production as well as the persistent risk aversion in the global markets. The local support for the crude oil market comes from tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The additional bullishness is the result of the latest signals from the joint technical committee of OPEC and non-OPEC producers, who highlighted the upcoming market rebalancing between 2Q and 3Q this year. The group reported further global inventories decrease in February. Meanwhile, shale producers continue to expand their activity, and the upcoming data from the US will likely signal continuation of this trend, which could derail the current recovery attempts in prices. Another risk event for Brent is the results of the two-day Fed meeting. The potential Powell’s hawkish comments on hiking rates will trigger the greenback’s rally across the board. In this scenario, oil prices will resume the downside move. Therefore, chances of breaking above the $66.80 resistance are low at this stage.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Bitcoin is nervous ahead of G20 meeting The cryptocurrency is recovering strongly after a weekend meltdown, with bitcoin is back above the $8,000 mark in early trading on Monday. On Sunday, the price briefly dropped to almost 1.5-month low of $7,247.50 but encountered dip buyers and recouped losses quickly. The recent plunge was attributed to report that Twitter Inc. was going to ban cryptocurrency ads in the coming weeks, similar to Google’s decision last week and Facebook’s step in January. However, the company itself has not confirmed the decision yet, and the market participant decidednot to overreact to unconfirmed rumors. Aside from technical factors, the trigger for a spectacular rebound was the Financial Stability Board (FSB) president Mark Carney’s letter to finance ministers where he noted that “currently, these crypto-assets do not pose a risk to global financial security”. This unexpectedly soft rhetoric by Carney gas somewhat decreased market concerns over today’s G20 meeting, where digital currencies regulation will be on the agenda. Though there is a risk of some aggressive statements and comments from European ministers in the over the coming two days, the downside potential for bitcoin will likely be limited, and “buy the dips” strategy will remain attractive for traders. So, in case of another sell-off, BTCUSD could attract buyers around the $7,000 mark. Anyway, the volatility may be higher in coming days, which requires caution from traders.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Brent is at a crossroads Crude oil prices struggle to find a clear direction on Friday, continuing their consolidation around the $65 level. Market participants are somehow apathetic due to a lack of meaningful drivers in the commodity markets for now. Brent is attempting to overcome the $65 local resistance, but can’t clear the $65,40 area for the last three days already. Such a dynamics may point to conflicting factors in the market. On the one hand, the lingering concerns over US shale production continue to weigh on prices, as well as a widespread risk aversion on the back of global political tensions. On the other hand, the greenback’s persistent weakness and high OPEC discipline play in favor of the asset. However, at this stage, these bullish factors are just limiting the downward pressure and can’t fuel a sustained demand for Brent. Therefore, crude prices will likely continue to struggle in a relatively tight range until fresh drivers emerge. In the short term, a break above the 20-DMA at $65.20 is needed in order to accelerate the ascend and avoid the intense selling pressure. This scenario is at risk however ahead of the upcoming Baker Hughes data which may reflect a higher number of oil rigs and send the prices lower.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Bitcoin: $6,000 back in the game? BTCUSD extends its bearish momentum, setting fresh downside targets following a break below the key $8,000 threshold, to a five-week low of $7,603. By mid-day, the pair has trimmed intraday losses and is attempting to regain the psychological level, trading around $8,150. After the initial attempts to shrug off Google’s decision to ban online ads promoting cryptocurrencies, ICO and related products from June, bitcoin attracted a bearish wave and as a result intensified its bearish correction that started earlier this month. In other words, the step from the tech giant, which is similar to Facebook’s ban in January, served as an additional catalyst and a new selling opportunity, while bitcoin and its peers had already been in a corrective mode by the time Google’s decision was announced. As the dust has mostly settled, the digital currency could show a recovery in the short term as the asset looks more attractive for bulls at current levels. However, the broader picture shows the price may yet dive to lows around the $6,000 mark, should “Google-style” news emerge. A daily close above the $8,000 level will signal a better short-term technical picture, while a sustained break below could bring more bears to the market.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenRush