Shale boom deters oil bulls Crude oil prices are trying to regain the bullish momentum after yesterday’s dip below the $65 mark. However, Brent lacks the impetus as the threat of US shale production prevents the asset from a steady rebound above the 20-DMA above the key local level mentioned above. As long as the asset remains below this area, the downside risks prevail.
The market participants refrain from buying crude oil futures amid risks from the US. The concerns increased following a new report by the Energy Information Administration on Monday. The agency expects that shale output at seven major oil and gas plays in the country will climb by 131,000 barrels per day next month and will hit a 6.954 million bpd.
In the short term, Brent will likely further struggle to break above the $65 mark. By the way, the longer prices remain below this area, the more likely the asset is to fall the victim of stronger bearish risks. Another negative trigger may come from today’s API report on crude oil inventories. Should the release reflect another increase in US stocks, the downside pressure will intensify. In this scenario, the barrel could retest the $64 support, where dip demand may follow.
Helenrush
Bitcoin finds dip demand againFollowing a five-day losing streak, BTCUSD regained the upward momentum on Friday and is now within striking distance of the $10,000 threshold. Over the past week bitcoin shed about 20% of its value, but it was not the only digital asset suffering big losses, with the whole market was bleeding as well.
Technically, the latest retreat looked rather appropriate on the back of profit taking after another rally to local highs above $11,500. The reason for the sell-off was another wave of fears about the regulatory crackdown around the globe. In an unstable regulatory environment, it’s quite logical to cut exposure in the volatile and still immature market. The cryptocurrency was hit particularly hard after the US Securities and Exchange Commission announced it will require digital asset exchanges to register with the federal agency.
Despite the continuing speculations about the vague future of the highly underegulated and inconsistent cryptocurrency market, bitcoin continues to show a more stable dynamics since the December rout and therefore attracts more traders. The fact that the price makes higher lows in the daily charts, favors fresh bullish attempts in the short-term, with $11,500 area remains key for buyers. As long as the price is below this barrier, the upside risks are limited.
EUR: will the ECB drop its “easing bias”?The EURUSD pair is extending its bullish run, headed toward the fifth daily gain in a row. The price faced local resistance around 1.2450 and has moved off highs slightly, while keeping the upside bias. The current euro’s strength is mostly due to the persistently negative dynamics in the greenback across the board. Meanwhile, the ECB meeting is due tomorrow, and euro bulls hope the currency will find additional support from the central bank’s statement.
Many traders expect the European regulator to drop its so-called “easing bias” and signal the coming “hawkish” shift in the monetary policy, which could be perceived as the first step towards policy normalization. Such assumptions are based on the minutes from the last meeting that showed the ECB could announce changes to monetary policy in “early” 2018. Should this happen, EURUSD will get a significant bullish impetus and rise back above the 1.25 threshold.
However, there is a risk for this scenario as the central bank also mentioned in the minutes that the euro exchange rate was a source of uncertainty. Considering the currency remains strong and continues to trade close to its three-year highs, Draghi may opt to be patient and keep the cautious approach, which will be a disappointment for the bulls. But even so, the potential downside pressure on the pair will likely be limited as the greenback remains under a significant pressure.
Brent: bearish risks re-emerge Crude oil prices showed biggest one-day jump in nearly three weeks on Monday. The momentum has slowed down since then, however Brent keeps afloat today moving towards the immediate goal at $66.00, up 0.43% on the day.
The combination of risk-on mode that returned in the global markets and a weakening US dollar has created the proper conditions for extending the upside momentum in commodities. The recent Genscape report showed a drop in crude inventories at the U.S. storage hub in Cushing, which added to the positive dynamics in the oil markets, in addition to the International Energy Agency’s positive comments on global demand growth.
In the short-term, the industry is focused on the news from Houston, where a CERAWeek conference takes place. Traders expect the U.S. producers and OPEC will discuss the current environment in the global oil market and give some encouraging signals that could support prices. The current Brent bullishness is mainly due to these hopes.
Further on, the market will be digesting fresh inventory numbers from API which are due later today. Another build up in crude stocks may derail the impetus and prevent Brent from a break above the $66 threshold, especially if tomorrow’s official data confirm further production growth. In this scenario, the prices could dive below the 64.50 support.
Bitcoin chugs along Slowly but steadily, bitcoin is gaining its bullish momentum, rising for the fifth day in a row. BTCUSD has refreshed two-week highs around $11,500 during the morning trading and is trying to keep above the psychological level $11,000.
The market has largely shrugged off the recent comments from the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney who called bitcoin a failure and a lottery. It looks like the industry is getting used to such statements and learns to ignore this kind of criticism. Meanwhile, behind the recent bullishness around the cryptocurrency is the released full support for the so-called SegWit. The new update makes bitcoin transactions cheaper and faster, therefore, attracting more buyers into the market. The additional support comes from the growth of the Lightning Network technology, which allows almost free bitcoin transactions.
From the technical point of view, the digital currency is yet to confirm its break to the upside. The key signals point at further bullish bias, but the buyers need to overcome the local resistance around $11,800 in order to challenge the next psychological barrier $12,000. A daily close above the $11,000 mark could confirm the bullish short-term prospects of the BTCUSD pair.
Trump sinks AUD and CAD The commodity currencies – Australian and Canadian dollars – have steepened their decline provoked initially by falling crude oil prices, along with the greenback recovery. The additional bearish driver emerged following the Trump’s decision to impose major tariffs on steel and aluminum from other countries – 25 per cent and 10 per cent respectively. The bearish pressure has eased somewhat on Friday, though both currencies remain vulnerable to further losses amid potential negative trade developments.
It is so far unknown, whether Canada is on the list, but traders accelerates looney sell-off on the announcement yesterday evening. As Canada is the largest supplier of both steel and aluminum to the U.S., the risk for the country’s industry is high. Trump promised to impose tariffs next week, so in the short-term, the nervy traders will likely continue to short CAD which reached fresh lows for 2018 around 1.2895 on Thursday and is now trading around 1.2840.
The aussie also pressed the mid-December lows yesterday and touched levels barely above the 0.77 mark. Risks for AUDUSD are also bearish, considering that the Australian annual steel exports worth around $130 million. Besides, the growing fears of a real trade war between the US and China will inevitably put commodity currencies, including AUD, under a more intense pressure. With this in mind, the next downside goal for the aussie is the 0.77 level, while USDCAD could test December highs above 1.29 on fresh signals from Washington.
Cryptocurrency market is getting healthier The price of bitcoin has mainly shrugged off the bearish news from the U.S. where the SEC shows signs of ramping up pressure on the ICO market. On Wednesday, the regulator issued scores of subpoenas and information requests to ICO-related companies. BTCUSD retraced following the report, but managed to keep above the key $10,000 mark and regained the bullish bias, trading around $10,600 on Thursday.
The cryptocurrency market seems to be gradually getting adjusted to the idea that the industry is going to be regulated globally and that this is positive for its longer-term future as a more healthy market will attract more participants and will be able to build trust among traders eventually.
Technically, bitcoin looks set for another attempt to regain the $11,000 level which keeps bulls in control since February 21st. This scenario will remain relevant as long as the pair keeps above the $9,200 support. Overall, since the mood in the crypto space has improved over the last month, more traders may get attracted to the market and therefore follow a “buy on dips” strategy in the medium term on the back of lower market volatility and more sustainable BTCUSD trading.
Brent is ready to go below $66 Brent attempts unsuccessfully to stay in the positive territory on Wednesday following a yesterday’s sell-off on the back of global risk aversion and US dollar demand fuelled by rather optimistic comments from the new FED Governor Powell. As a result, prices had to give up the $67 mark and retreat to lows barely above the $66 level which is now the immediate support.
The additional bearish driver for the oil market was this morning’s report that reflected the decreasing factory activity in China, the world’s largest oil importer. Besides, it is reported that Iraq has agreed a deal with Kurds to resume crude oil exports through its pipeline to Turkey. So far, the market hasn’t reacted to the news, as many traders doubt the deal will be implemented immediately, while in the longer term it may become a bearish signal for prices which tend to retreat on decreasing geopolitical tensions.
The market continues to closely monitor the USD dynamics while looking forward to the upcoming official weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration EIA. Should the report show further increase in production, Brent could pull back to the recent lows and even test the $66 mark in case the crude oil and gasoline inventories rise as well.
Bitcoin poised to extend rebound Bitcoin is continuing to march higher as it jumped back above the $10,000 threshold and now aims for the next psychological target of $11,000. The digital currency spiked 4.5% on the day, having already recouped last week’s losses.
The cryptocurrency market remains rather volatile, but the range of fluctuations is gradually narrowing, which tends to attract more buyers. Another positive development in the market is a more restraint reaction to the regulatory news. The latest example of this is the latest mute response from digital assets to the comments from the EU financial service commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis who noted that the EU stands ready to regulate cryptocurrencies and could draft new legislation in months to come. All this seem to indicate the industry is getting more stable and steady.
Keeping in mind the December events in the cryptocurrency market, investors do not rush into crazy buying and prefer to trade bitcoin in a narrower range. Still, there are still risks of more abrupt moves as more and more traders return to the market. In the short term, the digital currency needs to keep above the $10,000 mark so that to retest the local resistance at $10,800 which in turn will open the way to $11,000.
EUR: challenges ahead The EURUSD exchange rate has resumed its recovery on Monday, with the greenback is again under pressure on the back of easing Treasury yields and rising global stocks. The price is back above the mark 1.23, trading within a striking distance from the 20-DMA at 1.2365.
The short-term prospects for the single currency look relatively healthy, mainly due to the US dollar weakness. The USD still can’t attract sustainable demand, despite the signs the Fed may have to hike more aggressively in order to prevent the economy from overheating. A fresh signal for the interest rate hike expectations will be the US GDP and PCE numbers on Wednesday. Should the data exceed expectations, it could boost USD buying and send the euro to the lows in the 1.2250 area.
A more significant risk for the single currency will be the “super Saturday” when we will know whether the members of Social Democratic Party approved the coalition deal, while Italy will hold the general election. The prospects for rising political tensions in the region may trigger a wave of profit taking in the EURUSD pair later this week and send the single currency back below the 1.22 mark.
Gold: longer-term prospects remain bullish Gold prices are retreating since last Friday, with yesterday’s losses were the largest since June 2017. Today, the metal is trying to slow down the downside move witnessed on the back of a widespread recovery in the greenback. In the short-term, gold may remain under some bearish pressure, while the longer term prospects remain positive.
The USD demand is rather a local technical correction after an aggressive sell-off seen last week, then a sign of an underlying demand coming back. The dollar’s fundamentals still point to the downside, as the U.S. faces the so-called double deficit, as well as the threat of narrowing the interest rate differential with other global central banks embarking on monetary policy tightening.
Therefore, the current bearish correction in gold prices could reverse as soon as the dollar bears return to the market and send the USD index to three-year lows. The immediate resistance lies at $1,331; a break above will open the way to the next target at $1,339. The key level to the downside remains at $1,300, while the short-term support is expected in the $1,322 area.
Brent heads toward a more significant slide Brent crude futures failed to shake off the yesterday’s weakness and look set to suffer another disappointing day on Tuesday, with prices slipped below the $65 mark again. The market lacks momentum to preserve gains and seems to attract more bears in the short term.
The recent move lower is on the back of a widespread dollar appreciation amid increasing Treasury yields. A lack of risk appetite doesn’t bode well for Brent as well. These are the local bearish drivers for the asset, while the broader picture shows the market participants continue to fear the soaring U.S. production which is threatening to offset OPEC members’ efforts. This is the reason why crude prices have mostly ignored OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo’s statement that the cartel’s compliance with the provisions of the agreement reached 133% in January.
In the short term, Brent will likely to continue to follow the greenback’s dynamics. Tomorrow, the market will focus on API data. Should the report show an increase in crude oil and gasoline stockpiles, prices will head toward a more significant slide and may threaten the $64 level with the next target at $63.20. This scenario could be exacerbated by a continued USD demand.
Bitcoin lacks directional impetus Bitcoin climbed to fresh February highs above the $11,000 mark on Friday, but failed to confirm the break to the upside and continues its consolidation with a bullish bias early in the week. The technical picture has improved recently, with the price seems to have confirmed the bottom below the $6,000 level reached on February 2nd.
Despite the local rebound, the longer term prospects of the digital currency remain uncertain. The asset can’t build on the bullish momentum more aggressively due to bouts of profit taking at every attempt to stage an impressive rally. Investors’ inclination to sell rallies signals there are still doubts and much uncertainty in the cryptocurrency’s ability to return to the historical highs reached in December.
The recent fears of a tighter crypto regulation around the globe appear to have receded over the last couple of weeks, which brought some relief to investors. Interestingly, bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market on the whole hardly responded to the recent statement by Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin who has warned that cryptocurrencies could fall to "near-zero" at any time. Such a behavior may signal the market has become less vulnerable to bad news and negative comments, though any echoing statements could limit bitcoin’s upside potential going further.
Brent stuck below $65 Following a spectacular rise two days ago, Brent crude oil has slowed down its ascent and fluctuates below the $65 mark on Friday. Prices resumed the bullish bias against the backdrop of a weakening U.S. dollar, signs of increasing global demand and a high discipline within OPEC. However, the upside potential still looks limited amid further remarkable growth in US shale oil production.
The OPEC members’ supportive comments this week have contributed significantly to the oil prices recovery, but it’s obviously not enough to provide a steady boost to the market, which is still focused on the negative signals from the American drillers and producers. Additionally, Libya’s crude production was said to increase from 1.05 million barrels a day to 1.1 million. Nigeria is also planning to ramp up its production, by 250 000 barrels a day by 2020.
Therefore, as long as the American industry continues to signal a new wave of shale revolution, Brent’s bullish potential will likely remain limited. In the short-term, the price is unlikely to make a decisive break above the $65 level, especially as the market expects fresh Baker Hughes data. Should the report mark another increase in the number of oil rigs, Brent risks turning negative on the day below $64.
March is a risk factor for EURUSD The EURUSD pair continues moving upwards on Thursday and reached 10-day highs above the 1.25 threshold recently, where the price met some supply on the back of a local USD demand. The euro has already recouped last week’s losses and looks set for further gains amid the persistent dollar weakness and growing expectations that higher euro area inflation will force the ECB to taper more aggressively.
Meanwhile, the longer-term fate of the single currency will be determined by the political climate in Germany. In particular, early next month we will know whether the members of Social Democratic Party approved the coalition deal. The verdict is due to be announced on March 4. By the way this is the day of general election in Italy, which can bring additional nervousness for the euro bulls. The negative German scenario could significantly undermine the EUR’s positions on the back of political uncertainty, which will likely reduce the appeal of the single currency.
In the short term the USD sentiment will continue to set the tone for EURUSD. In order not to lose its upside potential, the euro needs to stay above the 20-DMA in the 1.2360 area. Until the greenback receives a meaningful support from the US economic data, US Treasury yields, or another wave of a widespread risk aversion, the bullish risks for the pair will persist.
Bitcoin: the bottom is in? As the cryptocurrency market is gradually returning to confidence, bitcoin is cautiously extending its recovery and now appears to be looking for further gains. The price is trading in striking distance of $9,000, where the $9,150 area is seen as key for the bulls - a break above could open the doors for a recovery to a major local psychological level $10,000.
The crypto market volatility has significantly decreased in the past week, after bitcoin reached three-month lows below $6,000 and since is licking its wounds. A sort of stabilization may attract new buyers and send the digital currency higher on the back speculations among the crypto-enthusiasts on bullish longer-term prospects of bitcoin.
However, following the recent spectacular roller-coaster ride and amid the continuing regulatory challenges, investors’ behavior will likely be more careful, suggesting the upside potential is limited in the short-term. Besides, any sign of another regulatory crackdown could prompt traders to sell the asset amid fears that the price may reach fresh lows. The short-term technical outlook will improve further, should bitcoin overcome the $9,150 level with the next target at $10,000.
GBP is focused on 1.40 again The pound is among the best performers on Tuesday, trading around the 1.39 mark, up 0.5% on the day. The GBPUSD is extending its recovery from three-week lows hit on Friday below 1.38. The price made fresh daily highs at 1.3924 and now appears to be looking for further gains, targeting the 20-DMA around the 1.40 threshold.
Following the last weeks’ depreciation, the British currency looks attractive for longs again. The latest trigger for GBP's stronger performance was the UK CPI report. Inflation remained at 3.0% in January, close to the six-year high and unchanged from the previous month against the expected fall to 2.9%. The strong figures have fueled expectations of rate hike in May. Now the market is pricing a 70% chance of this scenario.
But at this stage we wouldn’t take the May hike for granted as the Central bank needs confirmation from other economic indicators that the UK economy will smoothly withstand a more aggressive monetary policy tightening, especially on the back of risks associated with Brexit. In the short-term, the pound looks bullish, but in needs to confirm the break above the 1.39 level in order to preserve the upside bias.
EURUSD needs to regain 1.23 The EURUSD pair is trying to stage a recovery after a major sell-off over the last week. However, the bounce lacks momentum as the greenback is striving to stay afloat amid investors’ cautiousness in the global stock markets. The price can’t regain the 1.23 mark since last Thursday signaling the single currency so far fails to shake off its recent weakness.
Despite the mainly offered tone around the US dollar, the euro will hardly be able to resume its rally in the short term. The market focus is now shifting to the US inflation numbers due on Wednesday. The report will set further tone for the greenback across the board, and should the figures exceed expectations, the USD will resume its recovery from three-year highs, aided by another sell-off in the stock market, as strong CPI could reinforce investors' concerns over a more aggressive monetary policy tightening across the globe.
In the short-term, the euro needs to regain the psychological 1.23 threshold in order to avoid a more significant slide. The immediate upside goal is the 20-DMA in the 1.2330 area. However, should the USD attract buyers again, the pair risks to give up its modest gains and edge down to January 18 lows around the 1.22 level which will be broken if the US CPI numbers point to a rise in consumer prices.
The greenback profits on investor panic Despite currency markets have been calmly observing the global stocks rout, the greenback managed to gain some support amid a widespread risk aversion this week. As a result, the euro is on the way to registers its worst weekly performance since October. Following a seven-week rally, EURUSD has retreated from highs above 1.25 hitting levels last seen back in mid-January around 1.22.
The overall sentiment around the USD remains bearish, and the currency’s positions are still fragile. For now, demand for the greenback is fuelled on the back of global equities plunge, as well as rising 10-year Treasury yields which may soon reach the 3% threshold. These are the key local factors preventing EURUSD from resuming the steady ascend, while the euro area fundamentals continue to support the EUR’s underlying bullish trend.
Therefore, as soon as panic in the world stock exchanges fades away, the pair will focus on the prospect for a more aggressive ECB tightening and will resume the dominant upside bias as Fed’s three hikes this year are already fully priced in. But the problem is that the global sell-off could continue for some time, may be until late this month, before a steady recovery takes place. So in the short-term, the EURUSD pair will likely continue to feel pressure from the greenback. At this stage, the price needs to hold above the 1.22 mark in order to avoid another sell-off.
Oil market is starving for bullish signals The downside correction in the oil market is gaining momentum, with Brent crude prices came close to the $65 mark in Asia and hit a 2018 low on lingering concerns over surging U.S. output. The key question now is if prices stage a recovery from here, or dive under the psychological level and extend losses.
The recent bearish driver for another sell-off was the U.S. data. According to EIA, production climbed to 10.25 million bpd, and crude inventories also rose last week. The report added to the negative sentiment in the market which fears that the U.S. shale oil producers that are ramping up volumes at an amazing pace, could once again flood the market with oil and offset OPEC’s efforts to balance the market.
By the way, investors also start to worry about the cartel’s strategy due to a risk of an early exit from the deal on the back of healthy demand which is going to be robust this year, judging by a healthy economic activity globally. Earlier this week, Iran's oil minister said his country could raise its oil production within a few days should OPEC scrap the deal at the June meeting. This statement added to the negative pressure on prices and sparked fresh fears in the market.
In the current nervous and unstable background, Brent needs bullish signals to stage a recovery and escape further losses. Prices reached a key technical level $65, as a break below could attract more bears. Therefore, it is very important for the asset to kick off this mark and climb back above $66. But to do that, Brent needs positive signs from the USD, OPEC or the U.S.
Will GBP benefit from “Super Thursday”? GBPUSD has entered a consolidation phase, hovering around the 1.39 level following the recent retreat from highs around 1.4150 early in the week. The recent pullback was triggered by a number of factors, including stronger US dollar, unimpressive UK economic data, negative signals from the Brexit process, and a more cautious tone ahead of Bank of England’s “Super Thursday”.
The key question now is if the central bank hints about a possibility of a rate hike in May and thus bring back demand for the pound. The overall economic background in the country remains solid, and inflation is overshooting the 2% target. But the regulator may opt not to rush on as there are still uncertainties around the transition period that should be agreed by end-March. Besides, the recent UK economic figures, including the service PMI, are underwhelming, which may also make the Governor Mark Carney refrain from a straightly “hawkish” rhetoric.
Nevertheless, the pound still may gain some support tomorrow, even if the regulator prefers a more neutral stance. GBPUSD will resume the dominant bullish bias, should the central bank hint that it will tackle the rising UK inflation further and give positive comments on economy. It could be enough to push the currency above the 20-DMA around the 1.40 mark and send the pair to weekly highs above 1.4150.
Bitcoin heading towards $5,000Cryptocurrency market remains under a heavy pressure facing strong headwinds from global regulators and authorities that are taking a tougher stance against the “volatile and dangerous” market day by day. Bitcoin price briefly slipped below the $6,000 mark on Tuesday, down to fresh mid-November lows in the $5,810 area, -14% on the day.
The current fallout in cryptocurrencies is exacerbated by a widespread panic in the global stock markets amid rising bond yields and inflation expectations. This risk-off environment discourages the risky digital assets even more, especially now, when the market is so vulnerable under the regulators’ pressure.
By the way, it looks like the Chinese authorities are intended to eliminate cryptocurrency trading in the country completely. In particular, the Central bank decided to block access to all domestic and foreign cryptocurrency exchanges and ICO websites, on top of that the China has already banned bitcoin exchanges and ICOs in late 2017.
In such conditions, further signs of furious crypto crackdown will likely make bitcoin and other digital currencies extend their losses before they find a bottom. Now bitcoin is in a striking distance of the $5,000 support which could temper the bears a bit and open the way for a short-term consolidation. A slide below this level will open the way to $3,500. On the other hand, the current low levels may attract some buyers in the $6,000 region and ease the immediate bearish pressure on prices.
Bitcoin: another stab in the back Cryptocurrencies continue to retreat at the start of a new trading week following sharp losses on Friday, with bitcoin is trading dangerously close to fresh November 24th lows below the $8,000 threshold. Any attempts to regain the upside potential face strong headwinds amid the never-ending woes in the volatile market.
In another blow for bitcoin, major US credit card companies have banned cryptocurrency purchases with credit cards in an effort to decrease legal and financial risk. These banks are JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup. Citing the same reasons and crypto market volatility, the UK banking giant Lloyds Bank has also banned its credit card customers from buying cryptocurrency. Many institutions threatened to restrict some operations with digital assets before, but the real steps by the leading banks with a huge customer base can’t but further reduce the appeal of bitcoin which is particularly vulnerable lately.
From the technical point of view, the key on the upside in the $8,000 mark as its loss triggered even a more aggressive sell-off on Friday, and now this level is the immediate local resistance. Should the price regain this barrier, the trader focus will turn to $10,000 again. However, in the short-term, the downside risks continue to prevail, and failed recovery attempts signal that investors are not ready to buy bitcoin yet. Therefore, the next bearish target is the $7,500-$7,200 zone.