Get started

Helenrush

Brent: it’s profit taking time Brent oil rallied to fresh two-and-a half year highs overnight, breaching $66 a barrel for the first time since June 2015 after news of a pipeline explosion in Libya, which fuelled supply disruption concerns. But prices encountered resistance in the $66.50 area and retraced under $66 a barrel. Brent extended its corrective slide towards $65.50 and has stabilized. As the black gold tapped on the $66 handle, the market welcomed the signal as a good opportunity for profit taking which was exaggerated by low trading volumes. According to the latest estimates, the repair work in Libya will take about a week. So it’s a short-term supporting factor for prices. Meanwhile, partial flows have already restarted at the Forties Pipeline System’s Kinneil facility. The issue with Forties is gradually fading into the background ahead of the weekly US crude stockpiles data. And it was also a catalyst for Brent retracement, though a broadly weaker USD remains supportive to crude. Given the risks from the US data, especially on the production side, there is a chance the bearish correction will continue, which is also a reasonable strategy at the turn of the year. In such scenario, Brent may probe $64.80 a barrel. The move lower will introduce scope to the $64.50 area.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Bitcoin is licking wounds, but risks persist Bitcoin is recouping loses from a flash-crash experienced as the price tumbled from a record high at $19,850 and stopped only below the $12,000 mark late last week. Today, the cryptocurrency is trying to regain the $15,000 handle, climbing back into positive territory. Despite the current recovery from an aggressive last week’s selloff, which was the worst week since 2013, the downward risks still persist, as a growing number of regulators and central banks are warning against investments in cryptocurrencies, insisting on the speculative nature of the recent surge in prices. Investors took profit recently, which looked quite reasonable considering the scale of the bull rally. And now we see new buyers entering the market at more attractive levels. However, if in the short-term this correction may be interesting, in the longer term another wave of selling is possible, and it may bring the bitcoin price even under the $15,000 area. Therefore, the bulls should be careful in the current recovery.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
EURUSD: the Catalan factor won’t stay long Euro had to interrupt its 4-day winning streak after the news that pro-independence parties secured a renewed majority in the Catalan parliament. Such election results reduce hope for mitigating the constitutional crisis in the country. As a result, EURUSD dived to lows in the 1.1816 area where it met “demand on dips” and recovered partially to the comfort zone at 1.1850. Despite the election results are increasing the risk of reviving the independence drive in the province, the scale of the issue itself is limited and it will hardly challenge the growth potential of the whole euro area. So these immediate local political risks won’t hurt euro much in the longer term. Considering doubts in the US tax overhaul efficiency and subdued inflation in the United States, dollar will likely remain vulnerable, which will offset the current local risks for euro. On Wednesday, the EURUSD pair peaked at the 1.19 1st December high and pulled back slightly. This resistance stays key to the upside. The break above will introduce scope to the 1.1945 area. As long as euro remains above 1.1780, the immediate bullish scenario is relevant
by HelenRush
Gold: a chance to confirm recovery Gold showed a robust recovery from last week’s 4-month low at $1,236.49. On Thursday, the precious metal posted a 2-week high at $1,268.28 but failed to extend rally on the back of reviving USD demand. Nevertheless, considering that we now see a V-formation on the charts, there is a chance that following the current retreat, gold will not lose its momentum and accelerate higher afterwards. Despite some local USD demand, the currency will hardly be able to gain any follow-through traction, at least in the short-term, as the US tax overhaul approval failed to impress the dollar bulls. Moreover, there is much skepticism over the tax reform efficiency for the economy and concerns about this plan which would add more than $1 trillion to the federal budget deficit over the next decade. On the back subdued USD prospects, the precious metal may preserve recent gains and attract buyers again, especially if safe-haven demand which revived a bit today, remains intact. In this respect the results of Catalonia election. If the pro-independent parties do better in the vote, risk aversion may increase and support gold demand. In this case the first bullish target is at $1,264.66.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush
Bitcoin looks attractive againBitcoin was bleeding for three days in a row and has fallen almost 20% from record peaks on the approach to the $20,000 handle which was almost reached on Sunday, when CME Group launched bitcoin futures. The recent aggressive sales of the digital currency were due to another hack attack on a South Korean crypto-currency exchange Youbit which subsequently decided to file for bankruptcy after 17% of its assets were stolen. The exchange offered trading 10 cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin. Meanwhile, negative statements from the Asian authorities added fuel to the flames. In particular, Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said that bitcoin had not been proven as a credible currency, while the central bank of Singapore issued a warning against investment in cryptocurrencies. Another reason behind bitcoin’s unlucky streak was the news that Coinbase is launching bitcoin cash trading, which immediately sparked speculation on the threat of migrating bitcoin users to bitcoin cash. Nevertheless, after reaching a one-week low at $15567 earlier today, the digital currency attracted buyers and got back into positive territory. Now, when the bulk of these short-term negative factors is already priced in, the asset looks interesting for opening longs again, though in this market there is always a risk of abrupt price moves
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
Stockpiles data may set oil in motion Crude oil prices continue fluctuating between small gains and losses on Tuesday. Brent is seeking to regain the key $63 handle, but so far fails to resume its recent Forties-inspired rally. Only a decisive break above this level will alleviate immediate downside pressure and open the way to the intermediate resistance at $63.80 and then to $64 a barrel. The continuing concerns over supply disruption on the back of the Forties pipeline outage in the North Sea keep oil prices afloat, though the broad-based US dollar weakness is also somehow supportive. The Forties pipeline operator Ineos today reported that the timescale for repairs remains around two to four weeks starting from the date of shutdown (Dec. 11). It means that, barring some shock from the US, prices may stay elevated at least till the end of this year. Meanwhile, in the short-term the market will focus on the US data. Today, the US API crude inventory data release will set the tone. If the report shows that the massive build in gasoline inventories has slowed last week, and crude oil stockpiles decreased for a fifth week in a row, Brent will stage a more robust recovery towards the $64 handle.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
The US tax bill is a risk for gold Gold is trading higher on Monday despite firmer equities and a broadly risk-on mood in the global markets. The precious metal is trying to gain bullish momentum as the price is continuing last week’s recovery from a four-month low at $1,236.49. Despite the recent bullish signs, risks for the spot gold still point to the downside. The key risk for the yellow metal is the US tax bill which is expected to be passed by the lawmakers this week. A positive decision will send the U.S. Treasury yields, equities and dollar higher on the expectations that a major tax cut will spur economic growth in the country. If all goes according to the Trump’s plan, the bill will be adopted in coming days – probably tomorrow. Then the president will sign it into law before Christmas. Such a scenario will boost risk appetite. Thus, it may alleviate immediate upside pressure on gold and allow for weakness back to the $1,2456.77 area and may be lower. Nevertheless, as the markets have largely priced in the tax bill passing, the potential downside pressure on the precious metal will likely be limited.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush
EURUSD is still good to buy on dips The EURUSD pair basically shrugged off the latest ECB statement which was viewed as dovish by markets. After a dip towards the support area at 1.1760, the pair has recovered part of the post-ECB slide and is probing the 1.18 handle again. The dollar didn’t receive any meaningful support from strong US retail sales data as traders are still focused on the Trump’s tax plan. The uncertainty on this front continues to depress the greenback, which plays into the euro’s hands. The Fed still expects three quarter-point rate hikes next year. But considering low inflation and a number of other economic as well as political risks in the US, the central bank may be forced to slow down the monetary policy tightening in the longer-term. Meanwhile, the ECB is expected to continue to cut the rate of bond purchases on the back of strengthening economic fundamentals for Germany and the Eurozone. In the short-term, EURUSD needs to regain the 1.18 mark. The move above this psychological level will introduce scope to strong resistance at 1.1855. Selling interest is also noted in the 1.1870 zone. Meanwhile the major support is at 1.17 where the pair is still good to buy on dips. The immediate supports come at 1.1770 and 1.1740.
by HelenRush
The BoE fails to break the pound’s spirit The Bank of England unanimously voted to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.50% and reiterated "further modest increases" were likely over next few years. In a knee-jerk reaction GBPUSD retreated, but held within a familiar trading range. The negative initial reaction was partly due to the regulator’s cautious rhetoric, as the market expectations got more upbeat after strong November CPI data. Though the BoE tried not to be “hawkish” today, if CPI continues to accelerate further, Carney will have to intervene at some point in the future. And the next hike may take place earlier than the market expects assuming that Brexit negotiations don’t fail. Moreover, despite the fact that sterling’s bullishness is still capped by the notorious political uncertainty around Brexit, we have decent UK economic fundamentals and dollar weakness which may not be cured by Trump’s tax plan (if approved at all). So the longer-term GBPUSD outlook looks bullish, especially considering the risk of slowing down the Fed’s rate hikes amid stubbornly low inflation. After a brief dive under the 1.34 handle, the pound recovered partially, but stays under a mild short-term pressure. Earlier, the pair failed to extend the local rally above the weekly highs in the 1.3465 area. The most attractive strategy now may be to look for another pullback towards lows around 1.33 for opening new longs.
by HelenRush
USD: Trump’s tax bill is hanging by a thread The greenback gained modestly overnight, buoyed by the impressive US PPI data. Today USD is trading under a mild pressure against most of its counterparts ahead of FOMC decision which is widely expected to bring a 25 bp rate hike. But the market focus suddenly shifted to the political arena where the Thump Republicans faced another hurdle. Specifically, the Democrat candidate Doug Jones won a victory in the Alabama Senate race. It was a great surprise and disappointment for Trump who relied on Moore, as his vote, according to the president’s own calculations, Republicans needed for the tax bill. After the certification of Jones’ victory which may take place immediately after the Christmas, the Republicans’ Senate majority will shrink to 51-49. These developments entail risks for the tax plan, as well as for the whole Trump’s economic agenda in the longer term. Though Moore’s defeat hasn’t pressured the greenback much so far, the consequences may yet add to the list of the USD long-term issues. As for the upcoming Fed monetary policy decision, there is very little chance that Yellen will be “hawkish” during her final scheduled press conference. The cautious Fed tone will be a bearish sign for the USD which may suffer losses across the board. In such circumstances, the EURUSD pair, struggling to attract follow through buying interest this month, may easily regain the 1.18 area. It will alleviate immediate downside pressure and introduce scope for the intermediate resistance at 1.1855.
by HelenRush
GBP: CPI sends signals to the BoE The headline UK CPI came at 3.1% in November, which is the highest since March 2012. The GBPUSD gained initially on the release, but struggled to keep gains and met the sell interest in the 1.3380 area. The CPI reading peaked above 3.0%, which means the BoE chief will have to write an explanation letter to the finance minister. Basically, the faster inflation rises, the more aggressive should be monetary tightening. So today’s numbers are theoretically GBP-positive. But there are a few reasons why the currency reaction is so muted. Firstly, the market is still focused on Brexit drama which despite the latest progress still involves risks and uncertainties. That’s why traders tend to sell GBP on rallies lately. Secondly, the pound is nervous ahead of the upcoming events – tomorrow’s employment and weekly earnings data as well as the BoE meeting on Thursday. Despite today’s CPI figures, the market participants doubt that Mark Carney will embark on a more aggressive rhetoric after a so-called “dovish hike” in November, as many Brexit issues are still unresolved and pose risks to the economy. Nevertheless, there is still a chance that the Central Bank will note the progress in Brexit negotiations and hint at the need of faster policy tightening due to the fears of inflation overheating. If so, the pound may attract buyers in the area of December lows above 1.33, which are attractive for opening longs. In this scenario, the initial bullish target is 1.3380. The move above will introduce scope to 1.34 and higher.
by HelenRush
NZD welcomes the new RBNZ governor The NZD was the best performer in Asia today, propped up by the news of a new RBNZ governor appointment. The NZDUSD pair jumped nearly 1% and reached new December highs at 0.6929 in response to the news that Adrian Orr has been appointed a governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. He will begin his five-year term on March 27. The announcement gave a boost to the New Zealand Dollar as the market views Adrian Orr as a balanced and credible choice. It is also important that he used to work for the Reserve Bank in the past already and has a vast insider experience, in contrast with his two predecessors. Though it is so far unclear, whether the new governor is a “dove” or “hawk”, in the short-term it is enough to dissipate some uncertainty. In the longer term, the market will be closely following the prospects of the “dual mandate” introduction under the new leadership. Now, when NZDUSD regained the 0.69 mark, it is necessary to hold above and test the 0.6930 handle. If this local resistance is eroded, the 0.6945 will be on the radar. But this scenario is conditional on additional impetus from US Dollar weakness. Despite the Fed rate hike is already priced in, the greenback may attract some demand ahead of Wednesday’s Fed meeting, which may result in NZDUSD pullback after the recent rally.
by HelenRush
GBP Is Armed At All Points Let us ask ourselves if the NFP report will have any impact on the markets. It is unlikely it will. With two weeks before Christmas, and also considering that next week the Fed and the ECB will have their meetings, the investors will not rush into aggressive USD's buying or selling. In September, the US employment data was awfully weak but that time it was a consequence of the rough weather. November was quiet and just usual. Meanwhile, the US Government is running out of money today, and there was a possibility it suspends its work. The Congress had time until Friday’s midnight to pass legislation funding the government, but it agreed on a delay, and now it has two weeks to make an agreement on the budget and raising the ceiling. There is some positive news from the Pound’s theatre: firstly, the EU’s Juncker told today they managed to make the “first breakthrough” in the negotiations with the UK. Secondly, the sides are ready to proceed to the second phase of the talks. Finally, the Irish Minister of Foreign Affairs said that there will be no hard border whatever the outcome is. So, everybody is happy. The Sterling’s positions have been improving for the last 24 hours, but it is better to wait for the breakout of the resistance at 1.3532, which will confirm the bullish phase. If the NFP data is a dollar- positive, the pair may start a correction to the 1.3465 level with the target at 1.3395.
by HelenRush
AUD: No Help Within Reach The Aussie is on the back foot again. The currency refreshed 6-month lows against the buck at 0.7517. This time the reason for the sale-off was the disappointing trade balance data, which showed a sharp drop to the 6-months lows. At the same time exports decreased by 3%, mainly due to a drop in sales in the mining and metallurgical sectors, while imports grew by 2%. Net exports are used to calculate a country's GDP, so it is unlikely that the indicator for the fourth quarter will bring any good. Currently, considering the fundamental data, the Aussie’s decline is more justified than its growth. The trading conditions in Australia are at their best levels in the last 20 years, and this is a good opportunity for the companies to make money. But, there is one catch: concerns over Australia's record household debt and slow rate of wages’ growth. The retail sales have not been very active since the mid-year, which is a reason for concern since the consumer spending accounts for about 60% of Australian GDP. The experts expect a slower pace of growth next year because Australia does not catch up with the global growth rate. So, the rates will remain at low levels until 2019, at least. On Tuesday, the RBA kept status-quo, having left the key rates on hold, and suggested it has no plans of hiking in the near future. AUD broke the key support area at 0.7540-30. If the pair closes below 0.7520 support and chews June, 21-22 lows, it may test the 0.7420 area.
by HelenRush
Bullet Point For USD This Week EUR and USD exchanged the courtesy and disappointed the markets with weak statistics. The investors are ‘reading tea leaves’ trying to guess what will have a bigger impact on the EUR/USD: Trump's tax cut reform or the debt ceiling. The biggest central banks start thinking about the pair’s path in 2018. US ISM Manufacturing Index receded from the area of 12-years highs, and the US trade deficit rose to the 9-months highs in October. So, there are some reasons to doubt that US GDP will be able to repeat the last month’s success of 3% growth. it's curious that the common currency could not use its opponent’s weakness because of its own problems: disappointing retail sales data and the weaker business activity in the region. On Friday, US will publish its Nonfarm Payrolls data. This survey used to be a very important one, but it has lost its meaning recently. Be that as it may, considering the stalemate situation, the figures matter. The Fed’s decision of a rate hike may depend on what we see on Friday. EUR is bullish long-term, but the problem is it may use its ‘trump card’ no earlier than in the second or in the third quarter of 2018, when the ECB starts to scale back quantitative easing, and the markets start to price it in. If Friday’s data disappoints, which is quite possible, EUR/USD may resume the growth, and the current levels seem a good opportunity for buying with the target at 1.1870. Another scenario is a medium-term consolidation.
by HelenRush
GBP Is Waiting For Wednesday The Pound tried hard but was not able to sustain above the 1.35 area against the US dollar. Theresa May failed the negotiations with EU’s Junker on Monday. At least, both sides declared they did not achieve any sufficient progress. Jean-Claude Juncker mentioned that Britain’s position is a tough one, so it is not easy to negotiate with it. It is quite possible that both sides would cut it close, at the last moment, in keeping with the highest European traditions. The macroeconomic data receded into the background. The news on Brexit has become really important for GBP dynamics today. That involves political headlines and jitters. In light of this information, it is worth mentioning that a source from the UK Government said today the British leader could return to Brussels on Wednesday ‘to try to save a deal’. This is a positive news, obviously. The Irish border is still a sensitive issue, but as Irish minister McEntee told today, ‘UK said all issues could be sorted in Phase 2 of the negotiations’. Anyways, the markets believe everything will have been solved by the EU summit on December 14-15, where a go-ahead for future talks will be given, too. The overall picture for the Pound is positive. The progress in negotiations will surge GBP to the area above 1.35 level and will aim the pair to September highs at 1.3657. Otherwise, if May and Co. fail, GBP will receive an uppercut and rebound below the 1.3290 area to its October range.
by HelenRush
Will USD Last For Long? USD made the fur fly. We were waiting for a quiet weekend, and nothing foreboded the storm on Friday, but then suddenly the ball rolled. The Senate approved the tax bill, and Trump’s ex-advisor Flynn confession took the stage. Among these two messages, the latter one did not influence the dollar, but the former one was a great help. The passing of US tax bill gave a boost to 10-years Treasury yields, too, which skyrocketed to the area above the key level near 2,40% where it is trying to settle. The new week started with USD-gaps across the board. USD/CAD did not succumb to the moment, considering that the US dollar slumped more than 2 figures against the Loonie on Friday. CAD gathered support from the better-than-expected GDP and employment data. The prospects of a rate hike from Bank of Canada are slim to none, but the Central Bank’s policymakers may speak well of the economic stance and macroeconomic data, which means the Bank may think about the tightening in the distant future. A noteworthy detail is that oil has not been a guaranteed CAD’s supporter recently, even though OPEC delivered last week. The pair may try to conquer the mid-November highs at 1.2780 area, but the falling below the 1.2420 toward the pair’s October range is not ruled out. On the other side, the USD bulls may squeeze the most out of the US dollar’s performance and retake the 1.3060 level which will knock out the bearish pressure.
by HelenRush
USD/JPY Is Bluffing USD/JPY had been growing since Tuesday before it settled above the 112.00 level. One of the reasons for the recovery, apart from the approval of the tax cut bill, was a technical correction. But today we see another decline. As usual, USD lost some points due to weaker Treasury yields. But, also, the market is now concentrated on the Fed’s monetary policy path for 2018. From the one side, the latest Yellen’s comments confirmed the idea the current inflation and economic stance does not require the immediate rate hike in the near future after December. This may contribute to the pair’s sell-off. From the other side, the stronger-than-forecast US GDP for the third quarter, a positive outlook for the economic growth in the fourth quarter and the possible approval of the Trump’s reform are positive for the USD/JPY growth potential. Anyways, even if USD/JPY is able to surpass the 112.50 level, the pair will meet a strong resistance area around 114.50 level. No matter what, the Yen is under pressure and the dollar is in favour. It’s unlikely that the Central Bank of the Land of the Rising Sun has the intention to start unwinding its stimulus programme. The Bank of Japan is not ready to act, and it will probably maintain its expansionary policy during the upcoming months. Or years. So, the pair’s decline is correctional. Our next target is November,24 and 28 highs at 111.60. The breakout of this area will aim the pair to the recent November lows at 111.00. We may use the current slump as a good opportunity for buying.
by HelenRush
‘Day-X’ For Oil Today OPEC is discussing the possible prolongation of its oil cut agreement. What does this mean for the crude? The most optimistic scenario, the extension for 9 months till the end of 2018, is already fully priced in. But the odds are this will not happen. Yesterday, Russia and Saudi Arabia reached a consensus but did not deliver the details. One of the stumbling blocks is Moscow. The big Russian oil corporations made their ambitious plans and they do not want to postpone its realization. Especially, when the USA is ramping up the shale oil extraction. Another option is the extension of the agreement by 6 or 3 months (not by 9). Saudi Arabia’s energy minister told today that they expected everyone to implement output cut extension. The Kingdom is a ‘big fish’ in oil production, and its opinion is of key importance, but, considering the relatively high oil prices, some of the exporters may vote for shorter terms of the extension, hoping that the market will find the balance sometime earlier during 2018. Nigeria and Libya have been exempt from the cuts, but their participation in 'the common cause' is now a distinct possibility. The talks are continuing. The worst scenario the cartel may offer is 'no deal'. In case of any disagreement among the members, they will have to postpone the decision until the next quarter. This would not only bring disappointment to the markets but reinforce the uncertainty in the commodity-related area. In this case, Brent will fall below the $60 per barrel level.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
GBP Is Trying To Throw Dust In Eyes For the UK, the rumours of the ‘divorce bill’ agreement between Britain and EU may compare only with the news about the engagement of Prince Harry. This is a real and long-awaited progress in Brexit talks. The rumours were confirmed, and today’s morning GBP surged to the 1.3430 area. This has been just a preliminary agreement which should be confirmed on the national level. The next roadblock on the way to the trade agreement is the board with Northern Ireland. Irish Europe Affairs Minister McEntee told today Ireland could not accept the return to the hard border. The Pound’s growth seems to be overbought. It is not supported by the state of the economy. Sir Jon Cunliffe, the BoE deputy governor, mentioned some weak points of the UK economy today, such as a weak potential for economic growth, lack of the inflationary pressure and low level of the consumer lending. If GBP is able to settle above the 1.34 level, its short-term picture may improve significantly. At the same time, we should not count on a significant GBP growth since the final divorce bill figure is still unknown. GBP/USD needs a very good reason to claim a right to the area above the mentioned resistance.
by HelenRush
EUR/USD: Time To Come Clear? The euro is not so strong as we thought. The common currency plays it close to the edge. During almost twenty days, the European currency had been growing because of the dollar’s weakness and not because of its own strength. Quite apart from the fact that the political situation in Europe has been improving, EUR will need a support from the ECB on December’s meeting to prove its right to dominate, which is unlikely. Even the incoming inspiring data would hardly make the central bank change its current stance and start tightening. It means, in this pair, a lot will depend on the USD-side. Today is a challenging day for the USD traders. Donald Trump will try to persuade his party fellows to approve the tax-cut bill. If he succeeds, the dollar may investigate the higher levels, but the reaction will hardly be stable and prolonged, considering the dubious consequences of this possible reform for the economics. We will also hear from the next Fed chairmen J. Powell speaking on the Senate floor. We already know he is going to hike rates at a moderate pace, but the details are important. So, the markets will try to understand the inner meaning of his speech. If he sounds more hawkish than expected, EUR/USD's decline will pick up the pace. All in all, the markets will not rush into buying. The pair’s downward correction may lead it to its next target at 1.1850 and at 1.1820 afterwards.
by HelenRush
Bitcoin: A Bubble To Burst?Fasten your seatbelts, because this week there will be something interesting, including the OPEC’s meeting and the US and Eurozone’s inflation data. Meanwhile, all the majors are keeping their ranges. The only exception is Bitcoin which has climbed to the new record highs. The currency skyrocketed to $9500 on the news that one of the largest South Korea’ commercial banks Shinhan is testing a virtual Bitcoin vault which is expected to be offered to clients till the mid-2018. From the beginning of this year, this cryptocurrency has already added more than 900%. Of course, compared to Etherium’s +5000% is just nothing, but anyways. Today’s morning Bitcoin peeped into above the $9500 mark. We can see all the signs of a market bubble. Of course, it may take a while for this bubble to burst, and we still don’t know the possible reasons. It will also may take a while before the market starts panicking and breaks into a run. What we see now is a growing popularity of the digital money, let’s say ‘crypto boom’. So, it will likely continue scrambling to the upside. The test of $10 000 mark is not ruled out, and we may see it this week.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by HelenRush
GBP Looks To May All Right The Black Friday did not give the dollar any minute of respite. There are both, fundamental and technical factors there, that put pressure on the currency. USD broke some significant local levels in pairs with EUR, JPY and GBP, which aggravated the overall bearish picture for the buck this week. Yesterday the UK Government tripped up the national currency. Her Majesty's Treasury lowered its economic growth forecast from 2% to 1.5% for this year and expects the slowdown to continue in the coming years. The future of investment and business is questionable because of Brexit. In the European morning, the pair continued falling. The pair broke the 1.33 level, and it seems unlikely that the bulls have been invited to this party. GBP-bulls really need a closure above this mentioned support turned resistance now. Today PM May goes to Brussels with a new offer for the EU. The Sterling’s fate depends on the EU reaction. Any decline below the 1.3230 level will offset all previous gains and deteriorate the short-term technical picture.
by HelenRush