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Helenrush

Trump Overheated USDDuring the last 3 days, EUR/USD has lost around 100 pips. And again it was all about speculations and panics. It was all about Trump. The US President has gained market attention by its surprising tweets already several times. No wonder, investors are keen on hearing something new from him, and this time was not an exception. Recently, Donald Trump has talked on great job numbers. We don’t know what he meant exactly, but we know the Non-Farm Payrolls release is coming. And some investors took it as a hint this Friday we can see positive data. In fact, it’s a rather realistic scenario, given the story that happened in June. Trump said that very good GDP numbers would be announced soon, and some time later we saw Q1 GDP revised higher. How to trade the news? The market has already priced in strong Non-Farm Payrolls data, and it means that USD may be overbought. If Friday brings lower than expected numbers, it will trigger broad based sell-off of the American currency. Under such scenario, the current levels of EUR/USD look very attractive for bulls, and the next upside target is at 1.1410.
Long
by HelenRush
RBA Cannot Fail the TrendHelen Rush, Senior Analyst at Capital Markets On Monday, AUD/USD lost about 50 pips. But it doesn’t mean anything, as the RBA meeting is coming. The most important thing we need to remember is that whenever the rates go down, to local currency is to follow, and vice versa. But the RBA has no reason to lower rates further, as there is a housing bubble everybody is talking about. Besides, there are major improvement in the labor market, and business activity. Qatar isolation is also in play, as it makes Australia one of the key players on natural gas market. And the copper keep rising as well. The Reserve Bank of Australis should take into consideration the global trend of more hawkish stance in monetary policy. Last week the ECB, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Canada hinted on gradual removing of stimulus. In these circumstances the RBA will mostly probably remain the policy unchanged giving the market the reason to believe the easing mode is over. And that will be enough to make Australian Dollar rise again. AUD/USD may come back to 0,77, and may reach 0,7740 in a couple of days.
Long
by HelenRush
Oil rig to fall soon - Brent and Ruble ready to riseRussian Ruble has recently touched 4.5-month high, but the oil rebound gives the currency the hope to appreciate again. And the chances for oil surge are growing. There are several factors that may affect oil moves from verbal interventions to the EIA stocks change data and oil rigs. We have already seen data from the EIA this week. The OPEC officials still keep silence. So, all we have is Baker Hughes data scheduled for release tonight. Judging by the reports, the oil rig number has approximately 3-month lag when reacting to the oil moves. It means the current surge is triggered by the long-term period of oil appreciation seen since February, 2016. And the bearish trend came to an end 3 months ago. What’s interesting, the current number of oil rigs was last seen when Brent was around $80.00 bbl. What does it mean? It means the oil rig number will soon reverse the trend. The current price levels are unfavorable for further rapid increase of output. And there is a chance to see the decrease of the Baker Hughes number today. For the first time during the last 5.5 months. And this will be enough to revive a demand on Brent sending it to 46.30 in the nearest future. Under such scenario, USD/RUB may go back to 59.00 with next target at 58.60. Helen Rush, Senior Analyst at Capital Markets
FX_IDC:USDBROLong
by HelenRush
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