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Gold poised for further gains amid trade-related worries Gold prices remain in a bullish trend, with the bullion refreshed six-year highs on Monday as the US and China announced fresh mutual tariffs. The prices extended gains to $1,555 but then retreated below $1,530 as risk aversion has somehow abated. Nevertheless, the precious metal will likely stay elevated and could register fresh long-term highs as trade tensions persist. In particular, the Chinese foreign ministry said that it was not aware of the phone calls over the weekend despite the US President Donald Trump’s claim that Beijing had sought a return to the negotiating table. So, there is still no indication of a progress on that front, and the uncertainty remains elevated ahead of the next round of trade negotiations due in September. Due to heightened tensions, as well as Brexit-related issues, the inversion of the US yield curve and growing recession fears, the yellow metal will likely retain its safe-haven appeal and could target $1,600, though the $1,555 resistance is tough enough and to break it, the bullion may need a clear bullish catalyst.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush
EURUSD struggles amid signals from Germany The common currency came under the selling pressure following a short-lived rally witnessed on Friday, when the greenback was on the defensive. At the start of a new trading week, EURUSD resumed the decline and threatens the 1.11 handle once again. The dollar safe-haven demand has intensified after another portion of tariff threats between the US and China. However, the pressure has eased somehow after Trump said China had contacted Washington to say it wanted to return to the negotiating table. In general, tensions on the trade front remain high and cap the upside momentum in high-yielding assets including the euro. The additional bearish pressure comes from German economic data, pointing to a rising threat of a technical recession. In particular, the headline German IFO business climate index came in at 94.3 in August, weaker than 95.7 in July and missing the consensus estimates of 95.1. Expectations Index came in at 91.3, down from previous month’s 92.2 reading. In the short-term, as risk-off sentiment prevails in the global markets, the potential upside attempts in the EURUSD pair will be limited and capped by stronger dollar. The US Commerce Department releases data on durable goods orders later today, with the release could lift the pair should the numbers disappoint.
by HelenRush
Oil market focused on global developments After failed attempts to challenge the $60.50, Brent crude retreated below the $60 psychological level and finished the day 0.5% lower. On Friday, the futures are trading with a modest bullish bias, moving in tandem with risk sentiment in the global financial markets. Oil prices continue to follow global developments amid a lack of meaningful industry news, with the US-China trade war remains in focus. In the short-term, Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole will set the tone to all asset classes including oil. Should the Federal Reserve governor fail to deliver a dovish message, risky assets will be disappointed. In this scenario, the greenback could rally across the board, which is negative for Brent.  In a wider picture, the upside in the oil market is still limited due to lingering concerns over the global yields curve, trade war, slowing global economy, yuan devaluation and rising activity in the US shale oil fields. Later today, Baker Hughes will deliver its weekly oil rigs data and should the drilling activity increase, the release could serve as the additional bearish factor for the market. As such, Brent will likely finish the trading week below $60 and could even get under the $59 handle.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Markets shift focus to Jackson Hole Yesterday’s release of the FOMC meeting minutes confirmed that a rate cut last month was a “mid-cycle adjustment”. The document also showed that policymakers were sharply split on the course of action to take, which was assesses by investors as a not-so-dovish sign. Now, market focus shifts to Jackson Hole symposium, where Powell’s speech will set the tone. Should the Federal Reserve governor refrain from an ultra-dovish tone and reinforce the central bank’s position as an independent bank after criticism from Trump who called for a rate cut of 100bp, the dollar will stage a rally, and expectations of aggressive easing will plunge. But in order to avoid a massive rise in the USD, Powell may opt to express a more neutral position and highlight the central bank’s data-dependence in decision making. Anyway, the symposium that starts today could bring some volatility to global markets in general and dollar pairs in particular. As for EURUSD, a dollar-positive scenario could bring the pair back below the 1.1060 area. In this case, traders’ focus will shift to recent lows around 1.1025.
by HelenRush
EURUSD: key events loom EURUSD: key events loom As a reminder, the central bank cut the fed funds rate 0.25% in July for the first time since December 2008. Traders expect the Fed to cut the rate by another quarter percent next month and will be thoroughly assessing the message from the minutes in this context. The dollar holds steady ahead of this event, also focusing on the upcoming Powell’s testimony at a Jackson Hole symposium. By the way, the governor’s comments could overshadow the effect from the FOMC minutes. Anyway, these two events will bring more volatility into dollar pairs. Should the Fed’s tone come as more neutral and not as dovish as expected, the greenback could stage a rally across the board. In the EURUSD pair, there is a possibility of challenging fresh lows in this scenario. The common currency could challenge the 1.1060 local support and then target the lows around 1.1025 on the way to 1.10. The additional risk event for the euro is the Eurozone PMI data due on Thursday. Should the numbers disappoint, the possibility of announcing a massive package of stimulus measures by the ECB in September will rise.
by HelenRush
EURUSD could extend losses The EURUSD pair has been nursing losses for a fifth day in a row on Monday, with the euro remains under the selling pressure despite a better risk sentiment in the global financial markets after the Chinese central bank unveiled a reform of the LPR formation mechanism in order to make borrowing costs lower for companies and support the local economy, suffering from the ongoing trade war with Washington. The common currency registered lows around 1.1066 last week and has settled around 1.11 on Monday. The pair may struggle to regain the upside momentum in the days to come due to a number of risk events, from FOMC and ECB meeting minutes to Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole and fresh PMI data later in the week. Less dovish than expected comments from the Federal Reserve could lift the dollar across the board, which would be a negative scenario for the euro. Moreover, citing the latest weak economic data out of the Eurozone, including the German GDP contraction in the second quarter, the ECB could send a dovish signal to global markets. In this scenario, EURUSD could even challenge the lows around 1.1025 after a possible break below 1.1060.
LSE:LAND
by HelenRush
Gold could refresh highs after profit-taking Gold prices remain in the uptrend, with the bullion refreshed six-year lows earlier this week. This is the thirteenth week of growth out of fourteen, and demand for the precious metal remains robust despite overbought conditions. On Thursday, however, the prices have settled around $1,1520 and struggled to challenge new highs. In early session on Friday, the yellow metal slipped below this level and turned slightly negative on the day. The dollar gained after surprisingly strong US retail sales data, which capped the upside momentum in gold. Retail sales rose 0.7% last month after a 0.3% gain in June. The result showed that consumer spending remains healthy despite growing uncertainty over the US-China trade spat. In turn, strong numbers decreased the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which plays into dollar’s hands and limits demand for the bullion. Nevertheless, considering a number of risk factors from the trade war to Brexit and the US yield curve inversion, investors will likely continue to long the yellow metal as a safe haven amid the lingering global uncertainty. As such, after a possible bearish correction due to a partial profit taking in the short term, the bullion could target fresh long-term highs above $1,535.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush
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Oil struggles amid growing recession risks Recession fears sent Brent crude lower on Wednesday as the inverted US Treasury yield curve spooked global investors and sparked a widespread risk aversion. As a result, oil prices slipped to lows marginally above $58 and are clinging to the $59 handle early on Thursday. Apart from a broad risk-off sentiment, Brent came under renewed bearish pressure amid rising dollar demand and disappointing EIA data. According to the official report, US crude oil inventories increased 1.6 million barrels in the week to August 9. The stockpiles rose for a second week in row as refineries continued to cut output. Now, inventories are about 3% above the five-year average for this time of year. In the short term, oil prices could resume the downside move as the sentiment remains fragile, recession concerns persist, and the dollar could rise should the upcoming US retail sales data surprise to the upside. The technical picture has deteriorated after a break below the $60 handle. However, the potential sell-off will hardly drive the prices to lows below $56, with the pressure could be limited.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Gold has more upside potential Global equity markets are broadly lower again on Tuesday, with safe-haven gold retains support amid regional fears. Continued political tensions in Hong Kong coupled with a plunge in the Argentina’s peso after voters signaled they could reject market-friendly President Mauricio Macri at an election in October, unnerve investors, in addition to lingering trade concerns. Against this backdrop, demand for gold persists, with the bullion jumped to fresh six-year highs just below $1,1525. The technical picture improved further after a break above the $1,500 handle, and the bullion could go even higher despite overbought conditions as risk-off sentiment prevails in the global financial markets. In the short-term, however, the precious metal may face a risk factor in the form if the US CPI report. Should the data come in line with expectations or exceed the forecast, the greenback could stage a short-lived rally across the board. In a wider picture, gold prices will likely remain within a firm uptrend as trade tensions between the US and China are far from being resolved, and the escalation may take place at any moment.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush
USDJPY will remain volatile  The recent escalation in the US-China trade war fueled an aggressive risk aversion, which in turn pushed the safe-haven yen higher. USDJPY registered fresh 2019 lows around 105.45 yesterday and remains under the selling pressure on Thursday.  Market sentiment has deteriorated after Washington determined China as a currency manipulator following a dip to 11-year lows in the Chinese yuan earlier this week. Now, the situation has stabilized somehow but investors remain alert and cautious, fearing further negative signals from the trade front. On a local basis, markets received some relief from stronger-than-expected China imports and exports data. In a wider picture, however, markets remain vulnerable to further losses amid the lingering threat of another escalation between the US and China. Against this backdrop, USDJPY could go even lower despite some oversold signals, with bullish attempts will likely attract sellers, especially on the back of dramatically lower bond yields across the globe. Technically, the pair needs to regain the 107.00 barrier in order to see a weaker downside pressure. In the short and medium term, the dollar will likely remain volatile as trade tensions keep global financial markets unsettled.
by HelenRush
EURUSD needs to regain the 100-DMA On Monday, rising US-China trade tensions triggered a massive sell-off in global equities but the greenback failed to take an advantage as a safe-haven currency. That’s because lower odds of striking a trade deal fuels expectations of delivering more aggressive stimulus measures by the Federal Reserve which is a bearish sign for the dollar. Against this backdrop, EURUSD briefly spiked to the 1.1250 area early on Tuesday but failed to stay above the 100-DMA and has settled around the 1.12 key level. German industrial orders data came in much better than expected but remained in the contraction territory and failed to deliver a meaningful support to the common currency. In the short-term, EURUSD could be locally affected by the statement from the Fed’s Bullard on the outlook of the US economy. Should he express a less dovish tone than expected, the dollar may rise across the board. In this scenario, the pair may retreat below 1.12, with the initial support comes around 1.1160. As long as the euro remains below the above mentioned moving average, the downside risks persist.
by HelenRush
Crude oil prices may resume decline Brent crude remains relatively resilient amid a massive sell-off in the global financial markets. Trump escalated his trade war with China last week, with Beijing wowed to retaliate. Moreover, the yuan plunged below 7 per dollar for the first time since 2008, which may be a sign that China doesn’t expect a conclusion of a trade deal any time soon. As such, there is a possibility of further escalation in trade tensions between the two world’s largest economies. Considering rising downside risks from this front, Brent could resume decline in the short term, with prices may challenge the $60 handle which served as a psychological support last week. At this stage, a weaker dollar, bullish Baker Hughes data and geopolitical tensions are capping the selling pressure in the oil market. It is reported that Iran seized another foreign tanker in the Gulf. Meanwhile, Baker Hughes reported that US energy firms this week reduced the number of oil rigs operating for a fifth week in a row, to the lowest since February 2018. Technically, Brent will hardly be able to hold above $61 in the near term, with the immediate support comes at $60.60, while the key barrier for bears lies around $60. A break below this level will make the technical picture even worse.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
Trump fuels yen demand After the latest round of talks ended with no signs of a breakthrough, Trump unexpectedly escalated trade war with China. Overnight, the US President threatened to impose fresh 10% tariffs on another $300 billion of Chinese goods. As a result, risk aversion intensified across the global markets, lifting safe-havens including the Japanese yen. Following the rejection from late-may highs around 109.30, USDJPY plunged below 107.00, down to more than one-month lows around 106.84. In the short-term, traders will be closely monitoring further developments on the trade front, with any signs of an aggressive reaction could increase the upside pressure on the Japanese currency. However, the pair may have a chance to trim losses should the US employment data exceed market expectations and trigger a dollar rally. The technical picture has deteriorated after a break below the 107.00 handle. Should the greenback fail to hold above 106.77, the pair will register fresh 2019 lows. In the short term, USDJPY needs to regain the 107.00 level and close above 107.30 on a daily basis. By the way, a bullish NFP employment report could send the pair back above 108.00.
by HelenRush
Gold loses gains as dollar rallies The uncertainty on further easing by the Federal Reserve increased after the central bank’s tone came not as dovish as expected. Powell’s rhetoric fueled a widespread dollar rally which sent gold prices lower on Wednesday. The precious metal extended losses to $1,404 today, with the futures are now threatening the $1,4000 handle. As investors priced in a softer tone from the FOMC, market participants were disappointed despite the Fed cut its interest rate as the central bank did not indicate if it would cut rates by another quarter percent point in September. Moreover, Powell sent some mixed signals to markets. He highlighted that this was not the start of a long easing cycle but was not not just a one-and-done cut either. Against this backdrop, the yellow metal will likely remain vulnerable to further losses at least in the short term as the greenback may continue to appreciate across the board. Technically, the downside risks will increase should the bullion challenge the $1,400 psychological support. In the hourly charts, the prices need to get back above the 100- and 200-SMAs in the $1,422 region.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush
Investors brace for FOMC verdict Mixed Chinese PMI data coupled with fresh threats from Trump curbed investor optimism early on Wednesday. However, the greenback failed to attract safe-haven demand as traders turned cautious ahead of the crucial Federal Reserve decision. Trading ranges in the currency markets are tight, with the dollar is under a mild pressure against major counterparts.  As a 0.25% rate cut is fully priced in already, statements from the Fed Chairman Powell will be in focus and will set the tone to global markets. Should the remarks contain not as dovish undertones as expected, stocks may fall further while the dollar could gain across the board. The latest economic data from the US show there is no need in aggressive stimulus measures at this point. Besides, the USD may gain from the so-called strategy “sell the rumor, buy the fact”. In this scenario, EURUSD may slip back to recent lows around the 1.11 handle and could even threaten the psychological support depending on Powell’s rhetoric. At that, the knee-jerk bearish reaction from the dollar could be expected when the Federal Reserve announces a rate cut. On the upside, the immediate resistance for the common currency comes around 1.1160. 
by HelenRush
Oil market: upside potential limited Ahead of this week’s resumption of the U.S.-China trade talks and FOMC monetary policy decision, crude oil prices regained some ground on Monday and keep trading with a modest bullish bias today, as traders hope for at least some progress in relations between the two world’s largest economies after a break. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump said overnight that a small Fed rate cut “is not enough”, which fueled expectations of a more dovish statement from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Against this backdrop, Brent climbed back to the $64 area which caps gains since mid-July. But the futures are yet to confirm a break above this local resistance which is rather strong at this stage. Despite the current positive sentiment in the market, the upside potential is limited as concerns about the pace of global economic growth persist. As such, Brent needs a more significant fundamental driver to stage a robust ascent from the current levels. As long as the prices remain below the 200-DMA around $65.30, downside risks remain in the short term.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
GBPUSD threatens fresh lows GBPUSD extends losses on Monday, with the pair registered fresh more than two-year lows around 1.2320, now threatening the 1.23 figure. After two bearish weeks, sterling remains under pressure from two major factors – stronger USD and growing threat of a no-deal Brexit. The greenback remains on the offensive against major counterparts as the latest strong data from the US point to a lower probability of more aggressive stimulus measures from the Fed. The FOMC meeting concludes on Wednesday, with the doves could be disappointed if the FOMC tone on policy easing in the future comes not as soft as expected. Meanwhile, 25 bp rate cut has been fully priced in already. So there is a possibility that the dollar will rise across the board in such a scenario. Besides, the bearish sentiment surrounding the pound has intensified as the expectations of leaving the EU without a deal on October 31 after the new UK PM Boris Johnson assembled a cabinet that advocates a hard-line stance about leaving the block. Additionally, GBP traders are cautious ahead of this week’s Bank of England ‘Super Thursday’ which is expected to express a more dovish rhetoric and put the sterling under additional pressure.
by HelenRush
EURUSD: focus shifts to US GDP data EURUSD managed to attract some demand around 1.11 on Thursday and finished with marginal gains. The central bank left the key rates unchanged and the accompanying statement was rather dovish but Draghi’s speech was more neutral as the central bank governor pointed to “pretty low” recessionary risks and noted that the governing council should assess fresh forecasts and data before taking decision on additional stimulus. As a result, EURUSD recouped losses and finished around 1.1140. Now, market focus shifts to the upcoming US GDP data which will affect the USD pairs. If the release exceeds forecasts and cools Fed rate cut expectations, the greenback will appreciate across the board. Despite a rate cut next week is largely a done deal, traders show a vivid reaction to the incoming data from the US as each strong report cools down dovish expectations in the markets. Technically, the 1.11 support area remains vulnerable. The near-term technical outlook for the pair has worsened substantially after a break below the 1.12 handle which served as a decent support before. So any uptick in USD demand could trigger another sell-off in the common currency. The immediate resistance now comes around 1.1155.
by HelenRush
Oil market remains vulnerable There is rising volatility in the oil market, with Brent plunged from daily highs around $64.60 to $62.50 and finished around the $63 handle on Wednesday. It looks like traders remain at a loss due to a number of conflicting signals and drivers in the industry. Today, the futures are trading with a modest bullish bias but downside risks persist. The Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported that US crude supplies fell by nearly 11 million barrels for the week ended July 19, which was in line with API estimate and more than double the 4.5 million-barrel decline expected by traders. Moreover, domestic oil production fell by 700K barrels to 11.3 million barrels last week. However, the bullish numbers were a result of the Hurricane Barry which caused major distortions in the data. As such, after the initial euphoria, traders switched to profit-taking and sent the prices lower. Also, the market came under pressure following the reports that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait look to resume oil production in the so called Neutral Zone, which could bring additional supply around 500K barrels per day. This signal adds to worries about global oversupply, especially amid the lingering concerns over a weaker demand due to a slowing global economy. In the short-term, Brent may follow other riskier assets, which in turn will be influenced by the upcoming ECB meeting. Should the central bank’s tone come too pessimistic, oil futures could come under additional pressure.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
EURUSD: downside risks persist EURUSD dived to nearly two-month lows around 1.1140 on Wednesday, as the selling pressure intensified after a break below the 1.12 support that capped the sellers since mid-June. A widespread dollar demand was one of the key drivers behind the reversal, with rising trading tensions add to the pressure. On Tuesday, the EU trade chief said that the European Union will retaliate with extra duties on $39 billion worth of US goods if Washington imposes punitive tariffs on EU cars. The rising threat of escalation in the EU-US trade tensions is a bearish signal for the common currency as additional barrier could hurt the regional economy which is already showing more signs of slowing. Additionally, the euro demand abated as the ECB meeting looms, with investors bet on a dovish tone from Draghi who may prepare the markets for delivering additional stimulus in September. By the way, some traders expect the central bank to cut rates during the upcoming meeting already. On the other hand, should the ECB rhetoric prove not as soft as expected, the euro may see a bounce towards 1.12 and higher. In the short-term, downside risks persist.
by HelenRush
Oil market at a loss Crude oil prices failed to show a sustainable recovery on Monday and has been trading with a modest bullish bias on Tuesday. Brent has settled marginally above the $63 handle and remains vulnerable to losses as the bulls remain on the sidelines amid conflicting signals in the market. Brent is now torn between geopolitics and worries over oversupply. On the one hand, the futures are supported by the lingering Persian Gulf tensions after Tehran's seizure of a British-flagged oil tanker. On the other hand, signs of rising non-OPEC oil production continue to limit price gains, especially amid the slowing global growth, threatening demand. In the short term, oil prices could get hit by the updated IMF World Economic Outlook should the fund slash global growth forecasts further. As such, Brent will hardly be able to recover above $64 any time soon, while the risk of a break below $62 persists. Later in the day, the API will release its weekly inventories report, which is followed by the official assessment from the EIA on Wednesday. Should the figures come bullish, the market could derive a local support from the fresh data.
TVC:UKOIL
by HelenRush
EURUSD shifts focus to ECB decision EURUSD dropped dramatically on Friday and remains marginally above the 1.12 handle today, trying to show a bullish bias as dollar demand looks subdued after the recent rally. Volatility in the market remains elevated amid conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve officials ahead of the crucial meeting later this month. Now, traders shift focus to the ECB meeting due on Thursday. Ahead of this event, the euro will pay attention to the Eurozone confidence data, with weak numbers may reinforce expectations for a rate cut by the European monetary authorities. However, even a dovish rhetoric will likely be enough to put the euro under pressure at this stage as the common currency looks vulnerable after the odds of an aggressive Fed rate cut dropped. Technically, the pair needs to hold above the 1.12 support in order to avoid a more robust sell-off, with the immediate meaningful resistance comes around the 100-DMA at 1.1250. Should the downside risks persist, the 1.12 handle could be challenged later this week. In this scenario, the euro will target 1.1180 first, where mid-June lows lie.
by HelenRush
Gold derives support from the Fed The dollar was hit dramatically overnight, after comments from NY Federal Reserve President John Williams who hinted that lower rates and more aggressive cuts could come soon. Despite the later NY Fed attempts to temper the remarks, the greenback remained under pressure and trimmed loses only partially. Against this backdrop, gold prices jumped to six-year highs marginally below $1,453 during the early session on Friday. Since then, the bullion retreated and turned negative on the day, trying to hold above $1,435. Despite the overbought conditions, the precious metal still has upside potential as major central banks are signaling a shift to a softer monetary policy. Besides, market participants continue to express concerns over further escalation in the US-China trade war despite the recent reports that the two countries have resumed the negotiations. In these circumstances, the yellow metal will likely stay elevated in the meantime, with the $1,450 level is in market focus now. A decisive break above this threshold will pave the way to fresh long-term highs.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush