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EURUSD may test 2019 lows The sentiment surrounding the common currency remains negative, with EURUSD is nursing losses for a sixth day in a row. The pair is flirting with the 1.12 important support for the first time in nearly a month, and a break below this level could open the way towards 2019 lows around 1.1175. Poor inflation figures in the euro area confirmed the slowdown in the region, which suggests the ECB won’t dare to start hiking rates in the medium term. In the short term, signs of waning risk-on sentiment after strong Chinese data add to the negative pressure on the euro. Meanwhile, the dollar demand persists, motivating the pair to decline further. In the longer-term, political risks will rise for the single currency in light of the upcoming parliamentary elections in the EU, with the potential increase of the populist power could hurt the euro and drive the pair substantially lower.
by HelenRush
Oil lifted by risk-on sentiment Crude oil prices jumped higher on Monday due to a general improvement in risk sentiment at the start of a new week, month and quarter. Brent opened with a bullish gap and regained the $68 handle which remains in market focus, standing on the way to the key $70 psychological resistance. The market is supported by the latest Baker Hughes data that the number of oil rigs operating to the lowest level in nearly a year. Drillers cut eight oil rigs in the week to March 29, bringing the total count down to 816. The fact that drilling has slowed suggests the oil output could at least remain steady in the weeks to come. Another bullish factor for the oil market is fresh data from China. Official China PMI manufacturing rose to 50.5 in March, up from 49.2 - the largest monthly rise since 2012. The report helped to ease concerns over the country’s economy and oil demand. Further progress in the US-China trade talks added to the positive sentiment in the market. Against this backdrop, Brent could refresh 2019 highs above $68.50 in the near term should risk sentiment remain elevated. On the downside, the prices need to stay above the $67 threshold in order to avoid an aggressive profit-taking.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by HelenRush
Gold at fresh lows amid trade optimism Gold continues to lose ground for a fourth day in a row and head for the biggest monthly fall in eight months. The bullion was rejected from late-February highs around $1325 on Monday and drift lower since then amid a fairly robust dollar demand and growing investor optimism over the US-China trade talks. The two world’s largest economies started a new round of talks yesterday in another attempt to end the nearly year-long trade war. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said today he had a productive working dinner in Beijing. Meanwhile, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said the United States may drop some tariffs if a trade deal is reached while other restrictions will stay in place to ensure Beijing's compliance. In general, the latest comments and headlines suggest that the two countries may announce further progress in their relations and new steps towards a deal. In this scenario, gold prices could come under additional selling pressure as risk sentiment will improve further. The short-term technical outlook has deteriorated after a break below the $1300 support area. The next target for the bears lies at $1285. Once below this level, the $1280 figure will come into play.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush
USDJPY: trade talks in focus USDJPY is grinding lower for a second day on Thursday, with the price has slipped to the 110.00 area amid the prevailing risk aversion. Traders continue to closely monitor developments in the bond markets as the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note returned to its lowest level since 2017 on Wednesday. The yen demand is also due to nervous expectations of the next round of US-China trade talks due to resume today. According to China's commerce ministry, Beijing is in full swing with the US on a trade deal and both sides have achieved progress in phone calls, but there remains much work to do. In the near term, any signs of progress on this front could provide support to the riskier assets and thus weaken the safe-haven yen demand. In this scenario, the pair may bounce from the lows around 110.00 and get back above 110.50, with the next target lies around 110.70. This level is the immediate obstacle for bulls and a barrier on the way to the 112.00 handle. In the weekly charts, USDJPY needs to get back above the 100-SMA at 110.70 in order to further regain ground after a plunge seen last week.
by HelenRush
Oil prices: growth concerns cap the upside potential Crude oil prices struggle to extend the bullish momentum but the overall bias remains positive on Wednesday. Brent has settled around $67.50 and still struggles to get back above the $68 barrier. Global growth concerns reemerged in the financial markets, which poses a threat for the current upside attempts. Chinese industrial profits contracted 14% y/y in February, much softer than the -1.9% outcome in January. This signal may yet emerge as another worry for traders. Apart from that, the RBNZ became the latest central bank to warn about a slowdown in global economy, while the latest economic data from the US add to recession worries. Against this backdrop, risk aversion may intensify in the short term, which is negative for commodities. Also, dollar demand remains rather robust amid risk-off sentiment and weakness in the European currencies. But should the EIA report come out as bullish, Brent could derive some short-term support from the official release.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by HelenRush
EURUSD stuck around 1.13 The greenback started the week on a downbeat note amid a decline in the US Treasury yields. As a result, EURUSD managed to recover some of the Friday’s steep losses. At the same time, the upside potential was limited amid the risk aversion sparked by renewed fears about the outlook for the global economy as a result of inversion of the 3-month and 10-year Treasury yields for the first time since 2007. The common currency derived additional support from better-than-expected German Ifo survey which showed that business climate improved for the first time after six consecutive months of declines, while expectations gauge rose to 95.6 versus 94.0 expected. In the short term, the pair’s direction will depend on the general sentiment towards the dollar as well as on the investor mood in the global financial markets. On Tuesday, EURUSD has been trading under some pressure as investors remain cautious despite the risk sentiment has improved somewhat. From a technical perspective, the pair needs to get firmly back above the 1.13 figure and hold above the 1.1285 intermediate support. Technical indicators in the short-term charts are holding in the bearish territory.
by HelenRush
Risk-off sentiment drives gold higher Gold prices extend gains on Monday, fueled by the risk aversion that has intensified at the start of a new trade week. The bullion is trading not far from the highs of this month, registered on Thursday around $1,320. In the short-term charts, the prices were pushed into overbought territory, which suggests some setbacks could occur in the near term. Investor sentiment has deteriorated after a batch of dismal economic data from major economies on Friday that brought back fears over an economic slowdown. Additionally, the dollar demand remains subdued after a dovish shift in the Fed policy last week. All these factors are playing into gold’s hands. On the other hand, the greenback seems to remain the best of a bad bunch for now as the US currency is benefitting from a series of bad economic data in the euro area as well as from the ongoing Brexit drama. This in turn caps demand for the yellow metal. In a wider picture, the bullion may yet refresh March highs after a pullback as traders could seek to re-enter longs amid the increasing worries over the health of the global economy.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush
Brent struggles to make another breakthrough Crude oil prices have broken fresh four-month highs on Thursday, with Brent touched a $68.44 figure and started to retreat, clinging to the $68 figure. The general picture in the market remains bullish as the prices have been rallying for a third week in a row. The latest ascent in Brent was due to a widespread dollar weakness on the aftermath of the Federal Reserve meeting as the US central bank’s tone was even more dovish than expected. However, the greenback seems to have digested the message and is now making recovery attempts, which caps the upside momentum in the oil market in the short term. Despite the prevailing positive tone, oil traders remain nervous amid conflicting reports on US-China trade relations. There earlier news that China was resisting U.S. demands was interpreted as an obstacle on the way to striking a trade deal between the two world’s largest economies. Technically, Brent needs to defend the $68 figure in order not to attract a more aggressive profit taking towards the end of the trading week. A break above $70 looks unlikely at this stage due to the remaining investor uncertainty over the US-China trade talks and the outlook for the global economy.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by HelenRush
EURUSD rally stalled The dollar outperforms its major rivals on Wednesday as investors await the outcome of the FOMC meeting. The muted upside momentum reflects some corrective flows after the recent drawdown amid positioning ahead of the Fed. EURUSD rally has stalled around a tough local resistance 1.1360, where the 100-DMA lies. Further direction in the pair will depend on the tone from the Federal Reserve. As many traders expect the central bank will strike a dovish tone, any hints at the possibility of one hike this year could send the greenback higher across the board. On the other hand, should Powell admit the downside risks for the global economy, it will stoke concerns and sour investor sentiment in the global financial markets. EURUSD needs to overcome the above mentioned resistance in order to regain the 1.14 figure that stands as the key immediate target for the bulls. On the downside, the 1.1325 level comes as the intermediate local support on the way to 1.13 and then 1.1285.
by HelenRush
USD: Fed meeting looming As the Federal Reserve meeting looming, market activity is getting dampened, with US Treasury yields is little changed, hovering around 2.60%. the greenback is mostly lower against the majors after a mixed trading on Monday. Traders and analysts are weighting in on what to expect from the upcoming FOMC meeting that concludes on Wednesday. The central bank will leave its interest rates unchanged, confirming its “patient” approach to policymaking as the Federal Reserve has adopted a more dovish position since the start of 2019. Markets will focus on the forecasts provided by policy makers in the so-called dot plot. It is expected that the Fed will signal just one hike in 2019 (or no hike at all) and one more in 2020 instead of forecasting two rate rises this year and one in 2020. If so, the dollar could get under the additional downside pressure against major counterparts. But as a more dovish scenario has been mostly priced in already, the potential decline could be short-lived and limited.
AMEX:USD
by HelenRush
Oil rally has stalled but could be resumed Brent crude gained 2.2% last week and registered fresh four-month highs marginally above the $68 handle. The barrel failed to confirm a break of this level but remains elevated, having settled above the $67 figure on Monday. The general sentiment in the market remains positive due to a combination of factors including OPEC-led supply cuts, US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, supply disruptions, signs of slowing activity in the US shale fields, and a weaker dollar. This week, the FOMC meeting will be in focus with most investors, citing the latest comments by the officials, expect the central bank to sound dovish, which could lift risk sentiment further and put the dollar under additional pressure. If so, Brent may receive some support and make fresh bullish attempts from the current levels. Also, the market will be traditionally affected by fresh inventory and output data from the US. Further decline in stockpiles would be market-positive, as well as fresh signs of progress in the US-China trade talks. Technically, Brent needs to regain the $67.70 handle to target the $68 barrier once again.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by HelenRush
Gold demand reemerged after a dip Gold prices fell sharply on Thursday amid a stronger dollar demand across the board. The bullion retreated from the $1,310 level and closed below $1,300. By the way, it was the worst day for the precious metal since the beginning of this month. However, after a sell-off, the bullion resumed the upside move and tries to settle above the $1,300 psychological level despite the generally positive investor sentiment in the global financial markets. The decline was driven mostly by weak data out of China, stronger dollar and some corrective moves after a two-day rally. In a wider picture, gold still has the upside potential as the greenback feels somehow uncomfortable, while investors see a stall in US-China trade talks amid the reports that a meeting between Trump and Xi to sign a trade deal won’t occur this month and is more likely to happen in April at the earliest. In the near term, the yellow metal needs to get back above the $1,310 level, while on the downside, an important support comes around $1,290. A more significant support level lies at $1,280 but the risk of a break below this level is rather low now.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush
EURUSD: upside momentum wanes After four days of gains, EURUSD shows signs of waning upside momentum on Thursday. As a result, the pair has reversed last week’s post-ECB sell-off, when the prices dropped to 21-months lows below the 1.12 handle. The advance was mainly due to a weaker dollar demand as the government bond yields hovering near weekly lows. Hopes for avoiding hard Brexit played into the euro’s hands as well. Meanwhile, the euro zone industrial production rose by 1.4% on a monthly basis, beating market’s expectations. And German inflation was more or less in-line with initial estimates and didn’t affect sentiment around the common currency. Looking ahead, EURUSD could resume the ascent should dollar demand remain subdued. However, it looks like that at this stage, the pair is preparing for a bearish correction that could take place before the end of this week. Technically, a clear break above the 1.1340 resistance is needed for further rally. This region looks rather strong, and the pair will hardly be able to firmly settle above it without additional catalysts or drivers.
by HelenRush
Oil market: upside momentum is fading Crude oil prices rose marginally on Tuesday, with Brent made a false break above the $67 handle. After reaching fresh three-week highs around $67.40, prices retreated and settled below $67. Today, the barrel is clinging to the psychological resistance, showing signs of a fading momentum. The API reported that US crude stockpiles fell by 2.6 million barrels for the week ended March 8, while that gasoline supplies dropped by 5.8 million barrels. Traders cheered the data but the overall reaction was subdued as investor sentiment in the global financial markets has deteriorated after UK Prime Minister’s revised Brexit deal was rejected in Parliament, increasing the odds of a ‘no-deal’ divorce. Despite the prices are rising for a third day in a row, the bullish momentum seems to be fading now, which could be a warning sign for buyers. Should the official report by the EIA come worse than API’s estimates, Brent could face some profit taking. Only a clear break above $67 will brighten the short-term technical outlook.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by HelenRush
USDJPY: slow but steady  Despite the risk-on sentiment across the markets, fueled by recent Brexit news, the USDJPY pair struggles to show a sustainable rally. The bulls still struggle with the 112.00 barrier but first need to settle above the 100- and 200-DMAs around 111.40. The pair tried to overcome this barrier earlier this month but was rejected from 2019 highs.  The UK PM May managed to clinch some assurances on the Irish backstop from the European Commission, which supported risk demand early on Tuesday. Now, investors expect the parliamentary vote on May’s Brexit deal. These developments will continue to set the tone for global investors in the short term, and the positive scenario could push the yen further down. The progress in the USDJPY ascent is really slow but the uptrend from the flash-crash low of 104.70 remains intact, so a break higher could be just a question of time now. In the weekly charts, the dollar needs to keep above the 100-SMA at 110.80 so that to have a chance to challenge the 112.00 handle once again. A daily close above the mentioned moving averages will improve the immediate technical picture.
by HelenRush
Brent focused on the $66 handle Brent crude is trending higher on Monday, after a brief dip below the $64 handle on Friday. The barrel has recovered since to the levels above $66 but is yet to confirm a break of this handle as the sentiment in the market looks fragile. On the one hand, crude continues to derive support from supply cuts by OPEC and US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran. Traders are assessing the recent hints by the cartel at the possible continuation with the supply cuts for six months. As a reminder, the next OPEC+ meeting takes place in Vienna on April 17-18. Until then, the prices will likely stay afloat amid expectations of the deal extension. But on the other hand, the rally attempts may be limited by the lingering concerns over the global growth, especially after China trimmed down their growth targets for 2019, which raised fresh demand concerns. Technically, Brent needs to regain the $67 barrier to confirm a more bullish sentiment in the market. In the short-term, prices will likely remain in a familiar range, with focus will remain on the $666 level.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by HelenRush
Dollar and NFP jobs data The dollar demand was getting muted towards the end of the trading week but reemerged on Thursday as the ECB dumped the euro and risk-off sentiment intensified. The majors are making some recovery attempts ahead of the US NFP jobs report due later today. Considering a rather high correlation between the ADP and NFP numbers, we could see solid results for February. The ADP employment report showed the economy added 183K jobs last month, marginally below the 189K expected. By the way, the January reading was revised strongly upwards to 300K from 213K originally reported. However, considering that the Fed policy makers have repeatedly indicated that the country’s labor market is tight already, the focus will likely shift towards the wages data. So should the earnings numbers disappoint, the greenback could lose ground across the board after a strong start of the week. As for the EURUSD pair, dismal jobs and wages data may help the prices settle above the 1.12 level after yesterday’s plunge to the low of 1.1175. But any potential rally will likely be short-lived and limited due to the general euro weakness.
NSE:DOLLAR
by HelenRush
AUDUSD shifts focus to US jobs report  AUDUSD managed to bounce off fresh three-month lows despite weak retail sales data. The pair extended losses to the lows near 0.7020, where it seems to have found some bids and turned positive on the day. On the upside, the recovery is limited by the 0.7050 area.  The Australian retail sales recovered just by 0.1% in January versus +0.3% expected, after a decline by 0.4% in the previous month. The report added to a growing list of concerns over the strength of household spending. Meanwhile, the trade balance registered a thirteenth straight surplus. January’s trade balance was AUD4.55 billion, well above the 2.75 billion expected. The release helped the aussie to balance out the negative impact from retail sales data.  The next key event for AUDUSD is tomorrow’s US labor market data. The dollar seems to be losing the upside momentum after the earlier rally but the potentially strong figures could make USD demand reemerge. In this scenario, the pair could resume the decline and challenge the mentioned support, targeting the 0.70 figure.
by HelenRush
Gold: timid recovery attempts Gold prices extended recent loses to fresh late-January lows around $1,281, where the bullion received some support and finished marginally higher yesterday. On Wednesday, the precious metal continues timid recovery attempts despite the dollar remains strong after the data showed a rebound in US housing and services activity. Geopolitical headlines seem to be underpinning safe-haven gold demand at the moment, as North Korea is reported to be restoring part of a missile test site it began dismantling earlier. On the other hand, investor optimism over the upcoming US-China trade deal still caps the appeal of the yellow metal. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs remained positive on in its latest commodities report. The bank raised its forecast by $25 over the next three, six and twelve months to $1,350, $1,400 and $1,450 an ounce, respectively. In the short term, the bullion needs to get back above the $1,300 threshold to regain the upside momentum. A daily close above this local resistance will improve the immediate technical outlook for the metal. But no strong rally is expected at the moment as risk-on sentiment still prevails in the financial markets and dollar demand remains robust.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush
Oil market needs news on trade talks Crude oil prices rose on Monday, with Brent touched a high of $66.30 but failed to stay elevated above the $66 threshold. Today, the prices are retreating, clinging to the $65 mark. The sentiment in the market continues to depend mainly on the risk trades. Risk-on tone has abated on Tuesday as Chinese officials have set the lowest growth target in nearly three decades and warned of ‘tough’ challenges facing the world’s second-largest economy. The country’s growth was set at 6.0 to 6.5%, down from a target of 6.5% last year. This fueled concerns over the global growth and the prospects for global oil demand later this year. Investors are also nervous due to lack of fresh news and details on the US-China trade relations. On the other hand, hopes for striking a deal later this month will likely continue to underpin the oil market and risk sentiment in general during the coming weeks. In the short term, Brent needs to hold above the $65 figure in order to make fresh bullish attempts above $66. The key resistance comes at $66.50, while on the downside, the intermediate support lies around $64.85.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by HelenRush
EURUSD: bearish risks persist The EURUSD pair is still unable to break above the 1.14 figure that the prices were challenging last week. On Monday, the common currency continues to lose ground amid a better tone around the dollar. The pair reached one-week lows and threatens the 1.13 level that capped the recent downside pressure. Over the weekend, Trump said the dollar was too strong and criticized Fed’s Powell for hiking rates. But the greenback seems to have shrugged-off the President’s comments as he also pointed to the growing economy. Besides, the Federal Reserve has already taken a pause in tightening and turned more ‘dovish’. In a wider picture, the dollar still looks more attractive than the euro as the economic fundamental in the US are more favorable, while the euro zone economy continues to show signals that warrant caution. Technically, the euro could lose the 1.13 mark in the near term if the upside pressure on the greenback persists. On the other hand, a better risk sentiment over the US-China trade deal caps the selling pressure on the high-yielding euro.
by HelenRush
USDJPY: bullish breakthrough amid risk-on sentiment USDJPY extends the rally on Friday, with the pair refreshed 2019 highs marginally below the 112.00 handle. The greenback broke above the 111.00 barrier as well as the 100- and 200-DMAs, which added to the bullish technical picture in the short term. The ascent is due to a rally in riskier assets amid rising hopes of striking a US-China trade deal after positive comments from the US officials. Global investors are also cheering the news that MSCI has accelerated an increase in China’s weighting in its flagship emerging markets index. Besides, China manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations in February, though remained below the 50 mark. The pair was ready for a bullish breakthrough but lacked the catalyst due to unstable risk sentiment in the global financial markets. Now, when demand for high-yielding assets reemerged, the safe-haven yen feels uncomfortable, while the buck derives additional support from stronger-than-expected US GDP data and somehow positive Powell’s comments on the economy. Technically, the pair may challenge the 112.00 resistance in the near term and target the 112.20 area should the price manage to hold above the 111.40 figure. Another portion of positive US data could open the way higher in the short term. Otherwise, the dollar will see some profit-taking.
by HelenRush
Gold needs a catalyst Gold prices are trying to resume the ascent after a drop on Wednesday. The yellow metal failed to stay above the $1,320 figure and slipped to two-week lows below $1,317, where buyers reemerged. Today, the bullion is making attempts to regain the $1,323 threshold amid souring risk sentiment. Stocks are falling on Thursday amid the fading optimism over the US-China trade talks after comments by the US trade chief Lighthizer who sent a clear signal that any deal between the two economies should be all or nothing. His statement contrasts with Trump’s more optimistic remarks earlier this week when he raised hopes for striking a deal. Poor Chinese data added to investor concern. The manufacturing activity contracted more quickly than in January due to the weeklong Lunar New Year holiday. The official manufacturing purchasing managers index dipped to 49.2 from 49.5 in the previous month. This is the lowest reading since February 2016. As such, risk-off sentiment will likely prevail in the global financial markets in the short term, which should support the precious metal as a safe-haven asset. Technically, the bullion needs to stay above the $1,320 level in order to resume the ascent afterwards. On the other hand, gold is trading at relatively high levels now and may need a stronger catalyst to attract demand.
TVC:GOLD
by HelenRush