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Helicoptermoney

XAUUSD: Gold might break the all time high...I'm talking about the inflation adjusted chart high of 1980, not 2011...It seems this is the first big yearly time@mode signal in it since the bottom in 2001. The highest low resistance zone in the yearly chart, from 1980 had kept price subdued for years but the recent measures introduced to fight off the Coronavirus induced crisis and societary cost will have an effect on the value of money globally I suspect. Good time to be long in scarce assets like #gold and #bitcoin. The margin call induced crash in #XAUUSD is a good chance to load up, it seems to have held support in the weekly #XAUUSD chart, and might reload for another strong move up soon. Max long term risk is 13% if you go all in, so factor that in for position sizing in long term entries. Stops are not easy to place, but should not drop more to hold it, give it some wiggle room but don't hold on to it if it drops more than 3 times the daily average true range from here. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
2
Longterm view on S&P 500Kinda cluttered, these are areas I'm paying attention to, depending how the market enters those zones I might think about taking a long/short position. Some fun facts: - Fiat currencies get stronger in market corrections, since people are selling whatever they can for dollars/fiat. - Approximately HALF the volume on the US equity markets is generated from high-frequency trading. If I understand this correctly that means half the volume traded on markets is just a reflection of the other half. That's very precarious. - Approximately %60 of bank loans within the developed world are against real estate that already exists, ie mortgages, not for construction or business startups or whatever. Non productive assets. Kinda makes you second guess the whole mantra behind things like QE. - Despite unprecedented levels of monetary easing, money velocity has plummeted and yields are scarce. There is no happy ending here. I'm not too keen on the SPX being able to hold this upward 45 degree angle its been on, I expect a crisis/correction towards 1500 at some point. I'm not a permabear but a major change needs to occur within the design of our financial system for the world to continue running, and that won't come without some volatility. These endless loans/debts simply cannot be repaid. The central banks need inflation and they're gonna get it through permanent money creation/debt monetization. This'll probably play out between now and 2020.
FX:SPX500Short
by pjlbtv
Longterm view on GoldPretty self explanatory, shaded areas are where I think price will turn, based on unfilled orders existing right outside those candles. I'm particularly convinced by Jim Rickards(youtu.be), who argues that gold will go through a severe re-pricing whenever the relentless expansion of central bank balance sheets overwhelms the low-yield, deflation-biased economy we're currently in. QE/Stimulus does not work (currently ECB/JCB have been buying ~$200b worth of stuff EVERY MONTH) and all that misspent capital will have to be accounted for one way or another, ultimately through inflation. We're going to experience an inflationary episode much like the 70's when the dollar depegged from gold and the world became pure fiat, except the paradigm shift this time around is for permanent money creation to become the norm, aka helicopter money, which arguably is a more sensible form of money (read here: en.wikipedia.org(1860s_money)). When the debts placed upon us become monetized by the very central banks they originate from, it will be known that deflation is dead, and there will be nothing stopping inflation from taking over and reclaiming all that misspent capital. Now is a risky time to go long general bonds/equities, focus on preserving wealth rather than chasing yield. %5-10 in physically owned gold makes fine sense as insurance against severe market, rare as their occurrences may be, and the price currently seems quite fair. Gold made a drastic climb up from 1050 to 1250, assuming 1050 is a reliable floor the worst we'll see for gold going forward is probably the 1090-1120 range. Although, it's totally possible the ComEx paper market gets slammed for whatever reason, if they are that bold then I don't really expect anything worse than 900. If you buy physical gold you shouldn't have any plans to sell it for at least three years.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by pjlbtv
Long term view on BitcoinWhere to go long and where to short (though I have no current plans to short). I hope to sell %50 of my bitcoin between $2400/2700, sometime within the next few years. Anything above that is after gold breaks through its price manipulation and soars to >$5000, when price inflation finally takes over due to the malinvestment of QE money, which is currently preventing the economy from collapsing/markets from correcting (ECB & JCB are buying around $150b/month of bonds and equities). It's only a matter of time until permanent money creation becomes canon and inflation becomes completely inevitable, I couldn't guess as to when it ultimately takes off though. It's possible bitcoin gets to ~2500 on hype alone, and selling at ~$800-900 is good too if things change in the future. I doubt it's going under $570 barring some extreme event like gov't regulation or an unfound zeroday, making it a pretty decent option against market catastrophe over the next 3-7 years. BTC as %2-5 of your portfolio is very effective. This idea is tentative to future edits.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by pjlbtv
6