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Herdmentality

A Bitcoin Fib-Time Based Cycle (Concept #3)In this chart, we explore a third Bitcoin Fib-Time Cycles concept (3/5). Refer to the original idea for concept #1 or concept #2 (linked below). In this concept, we position Bitcoin within an unconventional greater two-cycle phase, where the current cycle, Cycle 2, contributes to a Supercycle. It offers a twist that may appeal to the more contrarian, as its approach is taken from the emotional 'Herd' perspective. We use this to examine investor sentiment as it often conflicts with price action and can provide moments of opportunities or reasons to prepare and avert risk. Unlike other concepts, each signpost should be viewed as a rolling emotional peak within that period, until the next is triggered. This chart is not to be confused with other concepts, however, it can be confluent whilst still being conceptually distinct. In this third concept, the positioning of the trend-based Fib-Time Extensions has been drawn from Bitcoin's inception to the first impulse rally in 2020. From there it is then projected sequentially again up until 2030. The rationale behind this theory is based on the idea that originated from my first-ever TV-published chart (linked below) . The shift in Bitcoin's cyclical nature poses a possibility that most of Bitcoin's growth from the early stages (2009 to 2013) is now in a repetitive sequence. This could indicate signs at greater levels playing into larger growth, which then forecasts a longer-term bear market. Note: These vertical projections are not manually placed; they are based on Fibonacci sequence numbers derived from the denoted placements (0-1). Interestingly, where they end up closely correlates to the major pivots across Bitcoin's historical patterns. Importantly, this is not a price prediction or estimation, nor does it offer an overall bearish or bullish take. Although the outlook seems bullish (short-term), cycles can play out over the years, and we may not have seen Bitcoin's final cycle just yet. This is why this is an alternative concept to others I have been exploring. More alternatives in the coming weeks and months. This chart merely presents a conceptual analysis of Bitcoin's time and cycles to date, highlighting key pivotal points and how Bitcoin can often play on emotion and sentiment-driven participants. Overall it is worth observing even without this concept as understanding timing and environmental circumstances can be just as crucial as managing risk or setting price targets. Having a plan to correlate these factors allows you to spend less time watching charts and more time enjoying whatever you want. Key Takeaways: This chart is based on the 2-week timeframe as its projections are till mid-2030 With a 1-2 weeks variance, each fib-time level (signpost) approximately triggers the next shift in the emotional phase. It is within a phase to anticipate the preceding signpost and observe the sentiment with the correct mindset. Each fib range marks approximately 3808 days (10.43yrs) Note that 0.5 is not an actual fib level. Once a cycle of phases is completed, we will assess as I believe this concept could prove to be a new set of cycles. We are 2 weeks, and 3 days until we crossover the next signpost (The Fomo Sweats!) Crossing the next signpost does suggest that there is a 1-3 month period of rapid upside. This current second iteration cycle is projected to end in Jun 2030. This is purely a concept and not certain and not financial advice. I apologise for the resolution. A screenshot can be viewed here:
INDEX:BTCUSD
by LiquidMafia
It always works the same way...Human-sheep hybrids psychology. No matter where I look I see the same flaws manifest in different ways A quote By 1998, Yahoo was the beneficiary of a de facto Ponzi scheme. Investors were excited about the Internet. One reason they were excited was Yahoo's revenue growth. So they invested in new Internet startups. The startups then used the money to buy ads on Yahoo to get traffic. Which caused yet more revenue growth for Yahoo, and further convinced investors the Internet was worth investing in. When I realized this one day, sitting in my cubicle, I jumped up like Archimedes in his bathtub, except instead of "Eureka!" I was shouting "Sell!" The majority just ends up becoming bagholders one way or another. Here are comments on the housing bubble from 2006 " Since the early seventies, our economic expansions have really been credit bubbles in disguise, and they have been paid for by inflating the money supply. The net result each time has been a reduction in the middle class standard of living. In the sixties, the family could easily make due on one income; do the math today…dual incomes aren’t enough now. " thehousingbubbleblog.com The lucky investors are the ones whose invetment falls like a rock and goes all the way to zero because they panic sell. The unlucky one are the ones for who the price slowly falls and keeps giving them copium. Virtually no one manages to make money trading, but they all manage to reach their primary goal which is to feel like a trader. Technically humans are less able to adapt to gradual change than frogs, so the expression boiling frog is not that accurate. Humans are huge bagholders with herd mentality. Some are bigger bagholders and more easilly enslaves. Funny how it's impossible to find any useful tangible info on the subject on the internet you just get drowned in a sea of ideology propaganda. The Milgram's experiments on obedience to authority are also interesting to read about. The vast majority complied with it, and even 65% went all the way to the final 450 volt death sentence. What's great about the Milgram's experiences is they were used to criticize the holocaust (for stupid people that want to report me: I'm obviously not saying criticizing it is a bad thing), and they fall in line with the western ideology, so we can find plenty on the subject and read about it. That's their greatest quality: we can actually freely read about them. You can't read (In Germany and France at least) anti LGBT research, articles, stats. That is illegal and incitation to hatred. Spitting on a religion and printing drawings of the prophet sodomizing a sheep, which directly incites to hatred both in the arab world and in the west where people's head are cut off, is legally NOT incitation to hatred . I'm just saying... You're in China you won't read about Tiananmen Square. The west used writtings and research by Gustave Le Bon and other guys I forgot the names of, that did a great job on herd mentality, propaganda, compliance, etc, and good luck finding much about it... Anyone that talks about it won't go to jail but will be a "crazy conspiracy theorist" and the herd believes it (they literally use the tactics they are accused of to silence critics it's hilarous). With herd mentality did you know you could move a guided robot that looks like a sheep and the whole herd will come running? It is also possible to use this to remote control fish in an aquarium? It is very fun. It works the same way from humans but slighlty harder or more subtle. For example the vast majority in urban areas will walk by someone dying on the ground, but if 1 person stops to help then the crowd stops too. For example in a crowded area if people see 2-3 people run for their lives the whole crowd will follow, in that case the crowd might have to even the non-sheep. In open concerts you start with a few weirdoes dancing and once the trend starts the crowd quickly dances and befor you know it the people not dancing are the weirdoes. Bitcoin investors were considered idiots by "normies" or sheeple if you prefer, and somewhere between 2012 and 2017 investing in BTC became the norm and the skeptics are the idiots. These herd trends look like the growth of a bacteria population (or viral pandemic), also appear in markets, but this is a story for another time.
Education
by MrRenev
2
Bitcoin top only in 2023? or has Bitcoin top at $65k?I think the bull run isn't over, however there is a small probability that the $65K was the top and we are all on the denial phase now. Remember market act as its own and in most cases acts the opposite of the herd, - Most is expecting the bull market not to be over - Most was expecting a blow off top If $65k was not the top here is my outlook for bitcoin moving forward. This bull run is fueled buy Institution and we know they move slower then retail investor so that's one reason why the top will take longer then the previous cycles maybe in 2023.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Btrader2019
1
Valuable lessons about crowds from 2 very good books2020 is a year filled with crowds. Bored by having to stay at home and not having a job, did they suddenly decide to form angry mobs? There are 2 main crowds identifiable in the USA which today (but not for much longer I believe) are the center of the world: - The street crowd, angry protestors that do not always know why they protest, but generally hate the president of their country, hate police, and want to protect blacks. They have been destroying statues like many mobs before them, and display the same irrational & violent behavior of typical mobs. Them wearing masks I think is very symbolic: it reminds me of the faceless character of crowds and the lack of uniqueness, own thought, and self-awareness of its members (we call them NPCS today). - The investing crowd, visible on TikTok and in the explosion of new accounts with stock brokers, TD Ameritrade daily average client trades went up 4-fold since they introduced zero commissions at the end of 2019 following the competition offered by Robinhood that attracted all the small novice clients. All the big brokers in the USA saw record numbers of new investors open share trading accounts. This is similar to what we saw in the late 90s, 1999 to be more precise, in the months leading up to to Dot Com bubble collapsing. 2020 is also the year of the general apathetic responsibility diluting crowd: Every one is willing to submit to the growing dictatorial rule of politicians, half of the crowd believes the word of so called experts as well as politicians and media, and the other half of the crowd plays along with absurd rules that maybe do not have terrible consequences worth revolting against yet. Because of a virus that killed a fraction of a percent of the population: old & sick people that had a feet in the grave. Like the most severe flu or heatwave seasons of the past, we can expect the following years to have less deaths than usual: perhaps the crowd will see this as a success of their absurd anti-science laws and it will empower corrupt and stupid politicians... The herd has been terrified to an extreme point by this virus. While some countries (Sweden) enjoy their freedom and are not seeing apocalyptic consequences, the herd decided to ignore this and live in great fear convinced that the end is coming. And even better! Science has shown that large gatherings were "super spreader" events, and yet, the same people terrified of this virus have gone out - wearing masks of questionnable efficacity - have gone to the street in very large numbers. And "experts" have claimed that the virus did not spread in crowds of people that were against racism but would spread in groups of religious people and beach-goers (smart virus). Can a reasonnable intelligent human being with a functionning brain believe such absurdity? The crowd being what it is I put my article in danger by simply mentionning facts about this current great fear. It takes exceptional individuals to not only think differently, but to face the crowd and say "NO" and try to end the injustice. A great example in the Dreyfus case. Between 1894 and 1906 at a time where anti-semitism was at sky high levels (also in the gentle kind good guys allies countries), a jewish officer called Dreyfus was accused of betrayal by french authorities and sent to a far away prison for life. Even after proof of his innocence was discovered, top officiers suppressed evidence and the real traitor was acquitted after 2 days. The army even forged documents to lay MORE blame on Dreyfus. Everyone turned a blind eye, continuing their routine lives. But Émile Zola, a novelist and a journalist, created a "crazy conspiracy theory" about this case, using logic to show a lack of evidence and serious errors. His conspiracy theory gained followers, and soon Émile Zola put himself in danger. French corrupt disgusting dishonorable and stupid military politicians convicted him of libel, he fled to england for his own safety. The public becomes aware of another crazy conspiracy theory: the collusion between military generals & politicians. Under severe pressure coming from the public opinion (silent majority) the affair ends up being resolved after more than 10 years and after Zola death (he mysteriously died in Paris in 1902 of a badly ventilated chimney). Not every one goes "The emperor is naked". I like to think I would, but it is not by great courage or a noble will of creating justice. I personally find it irresistible to make sarcasm and belittle people that believe in absurdities. I love letting people know they are stupid. I love saying "told you so". The following quotes come from the 2 books mentionned below: Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds - 1841 The Crowd: A Study of the Popular Mind - 1895 Let us not, in the pride of our superior knowledge, turn with contempt from the follies of our predecessors. The study of the errors into which great minds have fallen in the pursuit of truth can never be uninstructive. Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one. In crowds it is stupidity and not good sense that is accumulated. Every one has heard of the “Lancashire witches,” a phrase now used to compliment the ladies of that county for their bewitching beauty; but it is not every one who has heard the story in which it originated. A villanous boy, named Robinson, was the chief actor in the tragedy. He confessed many years afterwards that he had been suborned by his father and other persons to give false evidence against the unhappy witches whom he brought to the stake. (Note: Who would have thought?) History tells us, that from the moment when the moral forces on which a civilisation rested have lost their strength, its final dissolution is brought about by those unconscious and brutal crowds known, justifiably enough, as barbarians. Civilisations as yet have only been created and directed by a small intellectual aristocracy, never by crowds. Crowds are only powerful for destruction. Their rule is always tantamount to a barbarian phase. A civilisation involves fixed rules, discipline, a passing from the instinctive to the rational state, forethought for the future, an elevated degree of culture - all of them conditions that crowds, left to themselves, have invariably shown themselves incapable of realising. In consequence of the purely destructive nature of their power crowds act like those microbes which hasten the dissolution of enfeebled or dead bodies. When the structure of a civilisation is rotten, it is always the masses that bring about its downfall. It is at such a juncture that their chief mission is plainly visible, and that for a while the philosophy of number seems the only philosophy of history. (Note: a small intellectual aristocracy, think of the founding fathers, and then the entrepreneurs of the country, the innovators and sometimes the governments the law & order etc) Many persons grow insensibly attached to that which gives them a great deal of trouble, as a mother often loves her sick and ever-ailing child better than her more healthy offspring. (Note: White on Black crime only...) Crowds exhibit a docile respect for force, and are but slightly impressed by kindness, which for them is scarcely other than a form of weakness. Their sympathies have never been bestowed on easy-going masters, but on tyrants who vigorously oppressed them. It is to these latter that they always erect the loftiest statues. It is true that they willingly trample on the despot whom they have stripped of his power, but it is because, having lost his strength, he has resumed his place among the feeble, who are to be despised because they are not to be feared. The type of hero dear to crowds will always have the semblance of a Caesar. His insignia attracts them, his authority overawes them, and his sword instils them with fear. (Note: This book - The_Crowd: A Study of the Popular Mind - and these quotes are very popular in MENA countries that went though the arab spring) Many other practical applications might be made of the psychology of crowds. A knowledge of this science throws the most vivid light on a great number of historical and economic phenomena totally incomprehensible without it. During seasons of great pestilence men have often believed the prophecies of crazed fanatics, that the end of the world was come. Credulity is always greatest in times of calamity. Prophecies of all sorts are rife on such occasions, and are readily believed, whether for good or evil. During the great plague, which ravaged all Europe, between the years 1345 and 1350, it was generally considered that the end of the world was at hand. Pretended prophets were to be found in all the principal cities of Germany, France, and Italy, predicting that within ten years the trump of the Archangel would sound, and the Saviour appear in the clouds to call the earth to judgment. (Note: What does the author think when this happens with a disease that kills 0.001% of the population?) Hardly was that monarch (Note: Louis XIV) laid in his grave ere the popular hatred, suppressed so long, burst forth against his memory. He who, during his life, had been flattered with an excess of adulation, to which history scarcely offers a parallel, was now cursed as a tyrant, a bigot, and a plunderer. His statues were pelted and disfigured; his effigies torn down, amid the execrations of the populace, and his name rendered synonymous with selfishness and oppression. The glory of his arms was forgotten, and nothing was remembered but his reverses, his extravagance, and his cruelty. (Note: This is what got France started into the art of coin devaluation then fiat paper magic beans and then the mississippi bubble and later revolutions) The finances of the country were in a state of the utmost disorder. A profuse and corrupt monarch, whose profuseness and corruption were imitated by almost every functionary, from the highest to the lowest grade, had brought France to the verge of ruin. The national debt amounted to 3000 millions of livres, the revenue to 145 millions, and the expenses of government to 142 millions per annum; leaving only three millions to pay the interest upon 3000 millions. The first care of the regent was to discover a remedy for an evil of such magnitude, and a council was early summoned to take the matter into consideration. Crowds are as incapable of willing as of thinking for any length of time. (Note: Very valid for both US street crowds and TikTok investors, thinking is not their thing) The idea that institutions can remedy the defects of societies, that national progress is the consequence of the improvement of institutions and governments, and that social changes can be effected by decrees - this idea, I say, is still generally accepted. It was the starting-point of the French Revolution, and the social theories of the present day are based upon it. Dictatorialness and intolerance are common to all categories of crowds, but they are met with in a varying degree of intensity. It is fortunate for the progress of civilisation that the power of crowds only began to exist when the great discoveries of science and industry had already been effected. (Note: He explains that crowds are extremely conservative and actually instinctively hostile to changes and progress yes they are) Science has promised us truth. … It has never promised us either peace or happiness. One of the most constant characteristics of beliefs is their intolerance. It is even more uncompromising as the belief is stronger. Men dominated by a certitude cannot tolerate those who do not accept it. The art of those who govern…, consists above all in the science of employing words. The beginning of a revolution is in reality the end of a belief. The great upheavals which precede changes of civilisation, such as the fall of the Roman Empire and the founding of the Arabian Empire, for example, seem to have been determined mainly by considerable political transformations, invasions, or the overthrow of dynasties. But … most often, the real cause is … a profound modification in the ideas of the peoples. … The memorable events of history are the visible effects of the invisible changes of human thought. … The present epoch is one of these critical moments in which the thought of mankind is undergoing a process of transformation. (Note: The book is from 1895. Europeans split apart from religion back then, Germans got rid of their monarch in the 1918 and as usual it ended badly in the short term, and after the wars there was a NWO and huge progress was made until recently) Every age has its peculiar folly: Some scheme, project, or fantasy into which it plunges, spurred on by the love of gain, the necessity of excitement, or the force of imitation. There is scarcely an occurrence in nature which, happening at a certain time, is not looked upon by some persons as a prognosticator either of good or evil. The latter are in the greatest number, so much more ingenious are we in tormenting ourselves than in discovering reasons for enjoyment in the things that surround us. Money, again, has often been a cause of the delusion of the multitudes. Sober nations have all at once become desperate gamblers, and risked almost their existence upon the turn of a piece of paper. Its (Note: The crowd) acts are far more under the influence of the spinal cord than of the brain. In this respect a crowd is closely akin to quite primitive beings. A crowd may easily enact the part of an executioner, but not less easily that of a martyr. It is crowds that have furnished the torrents of blood requisite for the triumph of every belief. It is not necessary to go back to the heroic ages to see what crowds are capable of in this latter direction. They are never sparing of their life in an insurrection, and not long since a general, becoming suddenly popular, might easily have found a hundred thousand men ready to sacrifice their lives for his cause had he demanded it. Any display of premeditation by crowds is in consequence out of the question. They may be animated in succession by the most contrary sentiments, but they will always be under the influence of the exciting causes of the moment. They are like the leaves which a tempest whirls up and scatters in every direction and then allows to fall. A crowd is not merely impulsive and mobile. Like a savage, it is not prepared to admit that anything can come between its desire and the realisation of its desire. It is the less capable of understanding such an intervention, in consequence of the feeling of irresistible power given it by its numerical strength. The notion of impossibility disappears for the individual in a crowd. For instance, the difference between a Latin and an Anglo-Saxon crowd is striking. The most recent facts in French history throw a vivid light on this point. The mere publication, twenty-five years ago, of a telegram, relating an insult supposed to have been offered an ambassador, was sufficient to determine an explosion of fury, whence followed immediately a terrible war. (Note: In 1895 it was Telegrams, in 2020 it was Tweets. The more we go forward the more nothing changes) Some years later the telegraphic announcement of an insignificant reverse at Langson provoked a fresh explosion which brought about the instantaneous overthrow of the government. At the same moment a much more serious reverse undergone by the English expedition to Khartoum produced only a slight emotion in England, and no ministry was overturned. Crowds are everywhere distinguished by feminine characteristics, but Latin crowds are the most feminine of all. Whoever trusts in them may rapidly attain a lofty destiny, but to do so is to be perpetually skirting the brink of a Tarpeian rock, with the certainty of one day being precipitated from it. (Note: That book is full of racist & sexist references, I'm trying to filter the offensive stuff) The creation of the legends which so easily obtain circulation in crowds is not solely the consequence of their extreme credulity. It is also the result of the prodigious perversions that events undergo in the imagination of a throng. The simplest event that comes under the observation of a crowd is soon totally transformed. A crowd thinks in images, and the image itself immediately calls up a series of other images, having no logical connection with the first. The king can drink the best of wine -So can I;And has enough when he would dine -So have I;And can not order rain or shine -Nor can I.Then where's the difference - let me see -Betwixt my lord the king and me? (Note: From Charles Mackay directly, not found in his famous book) We find that whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one object, and go mad in its pursuit; that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first... It will be remarked that these recognitions (Note: delusional, seing things that are no here) are most often made by women and children - that is to say, by precisely the most impressionable persons. (Note: I strongly disagree with generalization and sexism, this quote is just here to show you how unwise the old generations were, a perfect example of a mass delusion, sexism is never ok) To return to the faculty of observation possessed by crowds, our conclusion is that their collective observations are as erroneous as possible , and that most often they merely represent the illusion of an individual who, by a process of contagion, has suggestioned his fellows. Facts proving that the most utter mistrust of the evidence of crowds is advisable might be multiplied to any extent. Thousands of men were present twenty-five years ago at the celebrated cavalry charge during the battle of Sedan, and yet it is impossible, in the face of the most contradictory ocular testimony, to decide by whom it was commanded. The English general, Lord Wolseley, has proved in a recent book that up to now the gravest errors of fact have been committed with regard to the most important incidents of the battle of Waterloo - facts that hundreds of witnesses had nevertheless attested. (Note: All of history is a lie 🤯) It clearly results from what precedes that works of history must be considered as works of pure imagination. They are fanciful accounts of ill-observed facts, accompanied by explanations the result of reflection. To write such books is the most absolute waste of time. Had not the past left us its literary, artistic, and monumental works, we should know absolutely nothing in reality with regard to bygone times. Are we in possession of a single word of truth concerning the lives of the great men who have played preponderating parts in the history of humanity - men such as Hercules, Buddha, or Mahomet? In all probability we are not. In point of fact, moreover, their real lives are of slight importance to us. Our interest is to know what our great men were as they are presented by popular legend. It is legendary heroes, and not for a moment real heroes, who have impressed the minds of crowds. The imagination of the crowd continually transforms them as the result of the lapse of time and especially in consequence of racial causes. There is a great gulf fixed between the sanguinary Jehovah of the Old Testament and the God of Love of Sainte Therese, and the Buddha worshipped in China has no traits in common with that venerated in India. (Note: From the chapter the leaders of crowds) These ringleaders and agitators may be divided into two clearly defined classes. The one includes the men who are energetic and possess, but only intermittently, much strength of will, the other the men, far rarer than the preceding, whose strength of will is enduring. The first mentioned are violent, brave, and audacious. They are more especially useful to direct a violent enterprise suddenly decided on, to carry the masses with them in spite of danger, and to transform into heroes the men who but yesterday were recruits. THE MEANS OF ACTION OF THE LEADERS: AFFIRMATION, REPETITION, CONTAGION (Note: Hey isn't that what George Soros does?) From the fundamental belief transient accessory ideas may arise, but they always bear the impress of the belief from which they have sprung. The Egyptian civilisation, the European civilisation of the Middle Ages, the Mussulman civilisation of the Arabs are all the outcome of a small number of religious beliefs which have left their mark on the least important elements of these civilisations and allow of their immediate recognition. The philosophic absurdity that often marks general beliefs has never been an obstacle to their triumph. Indeed the triumph of such beliefs would seem impossible unless on the condition that they offer some mysterious absurdity. In consequence, the evident weakness of the socialist beliefs of to-day will not prevent them triumphing among the masses. Their real inferiority to all religious beliefs is solely the result of this consideration, that the ideal of happiness offered by the latter being realisable only in a future life, it was beyond the power of anybody to contest it. The socialist ideal of happiness being intended to be realised on earth, the vanity of its promises will at once appear as soon as the first efforts towards their realisation are made, and simultaneously the new belief will entirely lose its prestige. The primary danger of this system of education - very properly qualified as Latin - consists in the fact that it is based on the fundamental psychological error that the intelligence is developed by the learning by heart of text-books. Adopting this view, the endeavour has been made to enforce a knowledge of as many hand-books as possible. From the primary school till he leaves the university a young man does nothing but acquire books by heart without his judgment or personal initiative being ever called into play. Education consists for him in reciting by heart and obeying. (Note: Clueless idiotic professors of economics say hi) "Learning lessons, knowing by heart a grammar or a compendium, repeating well and imitating well - that," writes a former Minister of Public Instruction, M. Jules Simon, "is a ludicrous form of education whose every effort is an act of faith tacitly admitting the infallibility of the master, and whose only results are a belittling of ourselves and a rendering of us impotent." (Note: Dayum our politicians used to be wise, what happened since then and now???????) Many houses have been condemned as haunted, and avoided by the weak and credulous, from circumstances the most trifling in themselves, and which only wanted a vigorous mind to clear up, at once, and dissipate all alarm. A house in Aix-la-Chapelle, a large desolate-looking building, remained uninhabited for five years, on account of the mysterious knockings that there were heard within it at all hours of the day and night. Nobody could account for the noises; and the fear became at last so excessive, that the persons who inhabited the houses on either side relinquished their tenancy, and went to reside in other quarters of the town, where there was less chance of interruption from evil spirits. No little consternation was created in London in 1736 by the prophecy of the famous Whiston, that the world would be destroyed in that year, on the 13th of October. Crowds of people went out on the appointed day to Islington, Hampstead, and the fields intervening, to see the destruction of London, which was to be the “beginning of the end.” A satirical account of this folly is given in Swift’s Miscellanies, vol. iii., entitled A true and faithful Narrative of what passed in London on a Rumour of the Day of Judgment. A panic terror of the end of the world seized the good people of Leeds and its neighbourhood in the year 1806. It arose from the following circumstances. A hen, in a village close by, laid eggs, on which were inscribed the words, “Christ is coming.” Great numbers visited the spot, and examined these wondrous eggs, convinced that the day of judgment was near at hand. Like sailors in a storm, expecting every instant to go to the bottom, the believers suddenly became religious, prayed violently, and flattered themselves that they repented them of their evil courses. But a plain tale soon put them down, and quenched their religion entirely. Some gentlemen, hearing of the matter, went one fine morning, and caught the poor hen in the act of laying one of her miraculous eggs. They soon ascertained beyond doubt that the egg had been inscribed with some corrosive ink, and cruelly forced up again into the bird’s body. At this explanation, those who had prayed, now laughed, and the world wagged as merrily as of yore. At the time of the plague in Milan, in 1630, of which so affecting a description has been left us by Ripamonte, in his interesting work, De Peste Mediolani, the people, in their distress, listened with avidity to the predictions of astrologers and other impostors. It is singular enough that the plague was foretold a year before it broke out. A large comet appearing in 1628, the opinions of astrologers were divided with regard to it. Some insisted that it was a forerunner of a bloody war; others maintained that it predicted a great famine; but the greater number, founding their judgment upon its pale colour, thought it portended a pestilence. The fulfilment of their prediction brought them into great repute while the plague was raging. (Note: Ah, authoritative "experts" 🤡) But the minds of the people were so impressed with the idea, that scores of witnesses, half crazed by disease, came forward to swear that they also had seen the diabolical stranger, and had heard his chariot, drawn by the milk-white steeds, rumbling over the streets at midnight with a sound louder than thunder. The number of persons who confessed that they were employed by the Devil to distribute poison is almost incredible. An epidemic frenzy was abroad, which seemed to be as contagious as the plague. Imagination was as disordered as the body, and day after day persons came voluntarily forward to accuse themselves. They generally had the marks of disease upon them, and some died in the act of confession. During the great plague of London, in 1665, the people listened with similar avidity to the predictions of quacks and fanatics. Defoe says, that at that time the people were more addicted to prophecies and astronomical conjurations, dreams, and old wives’ tales than ever they were before or since. Almanacs, and their predictions, frightened them terribly. Even the year before the plague broke out, they were greatly alarmed by the comet which then appeared, and anticipated that famine, pestilence, or fire would follow. Enthusiasts , while yet the disease had made but little progress, ran about the streets, predicting that in a few days London would be destroyed. (Note: Enthusiasts 😂. I'd probably be one of them. Funnier to be an end of the world perma bear screaming the end is coming than arguing with idiots and going into despair about the world being so stupid and messed up and hopeless) The prophecies of Nostradamus consist of upwards of a thousand stanzas, each of four lines, and are to the full as obscure as the oracles of old. They take so great a latitude, both as to time and space, that they are almost sure to be fulfilled somewhere or other in the course of a few centuries. A little ingenuity, like that evinced by Lilly in his explanation about General Monk and the dreadful dead man, might easily make events to fit some of them. He is to this day extremely popular in France and the Walloon country of Belgium, where old farmer-wives consult him with great confidence and assiduity. (Note: Aha! I am the master of charts, the legend, I said Bitcoin would one day go up and it did - nevermind it dropped 70% before that and never got all the way to my target) A much more remarkable story is told of an astrologer who lived in Romagna in the fifteenth century, and whose name was Antiochus Tibertus. At that time nearly all the petty sovereigns of Italy retained such men in their service; and Tibertus, having studied the mathematics with great success at Paris, and delivered many predictions, some of which, for guesses, were not deficient in shrewdness, was taken into the household of Pandolfo di Malatesta, the sovereign of Rimini. His reputation was so great, that his study was continually thronged either with visitors who were persons of distinction, or with clients who came to him for advice; and in a short time he acquired a considerable fortune. Notwithstanding all these advantages, he passed his life miserably, and ended it on the scaffold. That is enough I think. Might as well read the whole books.
TVC:DJIEducation
by MrRenev
10 Lessons from the Tesla short squeeze/FOMO rally1- Do not short one of the most shorted stocks of all times There was more than 30% of the float shorted, one of the most shorted stock ever in term of dollars or percent. So many short sellers in Wall Street. What did you think would happen? Anything above 10% is too high in my book. 2- Short squeezes can be huge, there is not level where "it has to stop going up now" Not the first time that a company rallies massively. Remember when volkswagen became the largest company in the world for a few days? Do not be stubborn. 3- Do not have "personal conviction" shorts, what I mean is don't get attached to it Classic commandment. 4- Do not short cultist stocks (unless you really know what you are doing which most of Wall Street is not) Elon Musk is a celebrity CEO that has a cult following, his cultists do not act rationally, they will hold to zero. They know nothing about investing, they do not read reports, they have cognitive bias and will make "magnet" arguments and argue with about everything no matter how clear and undeniable it is. Some of those clowns think the world is going to end and their life depends on TSLAQ I mean... No point even trying here. The brainwashed TSLAQ cult is one of the worse in human history. Know how hard it is to save people in a sect? Here it is even harder I reckon. 5- Have a tight stop (or other disposition), and trail your stop when well in the green The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Nuff' said. 6- Think for yourself, do not follow the herd The herd... direction the slaughterhouse. I could write a list of famous quotes about thinking for yourself, being a contrarian etc. 7- Keep an eye on the news: worldwide climate alarmism Extinction Rebellion made a name for themselves, I don't know if they are new or old but only became famous recently. You had Greta, you had the Australian fires (caused by climate activists as well as a government telling farmers not to burn waste for years but to leave it lying around to make sure big wildfires happen one day). 90% of who the climate alarmist are either young scientists that have no stature yet and want grants, left wing politicians that always welcome new reason to tax people, and xtra gullible 16 yo girls that trust their bf that keep lying to them and that cannot buy stocks. There's also alot of tech savvy millenial boys with glasses I am sure every one has seen several of them on tv, they get super angry when they hear "a denier" and start attacking him "oh so when science cures you you believe in it right" and deny anything he says (oh the irony) and don't let them speak, they get so reptilian brain angry... Easy to imagine how that can translate into "investing in the savior Elon Christ" regardless of rational facts such as TSLAQ being a pyramid scheme garbage company that hasn't turned a profit in 20 years for example... 8- If you find an interesting short, keep it to yourself Tesla bears kept advertising their short to every one on earth dragging more competition in... Then it ends up being shorted by every one including novices that just heard about it... 9- Stay away from companies that have high up potential Heavy retail interest, big rallies in the past, are red flags. A stock that went up 900% 2 years ago could do it again. With Tesla, Robinbros of course bought more as it was going down, and took profit very early when the price went up, but after alot of going up they finally couldn't resist anymore, and started buying lots and lots. Thousands of Robinhood users FOMO'd in after TSLAQ crossed $700. Big vertical rallies on TSLAQ were not accompanied by large reductions in short positions. Quoting reuters: " One factor driving the rally may be fund managers hurrying to raise their allocation of the stock, said Thomas Lee, managing partner at Fundstrat Global Advisors. Some fund managers whose portfolios are benchmarked to the Russell 1000 and Russell 1000 Growth indexes may have avoided loading up on Tesla shares due to their volatility and subpar performance in 2019 compared to those benchmarks, he said. “Last year, it was a name that was tough to own,” Lee said. “People have a lot of catching up to do.” " It's really more about abusing reptilian brains and knowing what ridiculous beliefs others have than being right about a company itself... 10- Do not go against parabolic moves unless you "know what you are doing" Hey I had 9 points but I just added this one, 10 is way better. There are always the "educated" gamblers that are going to want to short every parabolic move (parabolic doesn't mean "that went up alot" parabolic means going up parabolically, as opposed to in a linear way which can go up lots too). Some of these kids see their indicator at a high value and think it is time to go short and get burned over and over till they quit. If you identified a specific level and know it works well and know how far your stop should be you can short a parabolic move, ok you know what you are doing. I believe: - Joining the trend = Most forgiving of all - Shorting parabolic moves = Probably most punishing of all Not sure if it is the very worse, I have heard terrifying stories about people buying or selling slowly chugging trends. I mean... I will be blunt... You gotta to be a whole special kind of stupid to do this, and worse to stay in thinking "it's not that strong, has to reverse eventually" and grow your loser bigger and bigger. So idk if this counts it's just too dumb to be a real thing. For the advanced gamblers if you identified a great level do not be scared and do not remove your order because of a vertical candle or a scaaaary parabolic move, trust me go backtest it, it works even more often.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by MrRenev
7
Parabolic support still not broken - from 7.3K$ to 9.8K$?Hello there Crypto haters and lovers. This is my first post in tradingview, sharing my idea about the market. It is kinda funny to see how people get affected by herd mentality. FOMO, FUD, These are just terms which don't describe the whole emotional roller coaster that market sentiment has every time a bitcoin rally starts. To be fair, Bitcoin adoption might not be here yet but the hooligans, hard headed fans and haters have created a really entertaining playground for us to play. First of all, I just want to mention that patience is key. Everyone acting like pros, but it's not true. Nobody is master of charts king of cryptos and so on. Don't short this market because you will be left behind in Bitcoin dust. How I see the situation right now is that the market is still in the parabolic region and keeping its support. We might shortly fall to 7300 to touch the red EMA line you see in the image and bounce back up toward upper 9K$ region. But it does not mean that the market have corrected itself, so it is quiet possible that after the new 2019 high price corrects back to major supports around 6800$. Conclusion: So if you want to buy, just be patient take your time until market unravel itself and shows you the obvious correction and consolidation (an obvious dip).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by UnknownUnicorn1928174
4
Ripple XRP the Ultimate Pump n Dump or Mid-Term Play? BITFINEX:XRPUSD Genuinely watching Ripple while trying to avoid the extremes of the pumpers. Unfortunately I got into the blockchain space late but have been devouring information like crazy. While waiting for my funds to transfer in to any exchange I could get on was painful. While waiting for a wire, then Crypto Capital to CEX, Ripple moved from 0.23 to $2 (CEX was early for the move up due to low volumes). This was beyond frustrating. When I realized my Bitfinex account was set up - yes you can trade without being verified - I felt that Ripple already went too far too fast (at $1). The latest news took it to $2.40+ but the cliff is now occurring. To me, this is more like a buy on rumour, sell on facts (aka pump n dump) than a real value play. Or is it? Why? Anyone who really researches blockchains, knows the limitations. IOTA is hands down better and solves all the blockchain issues. I don't foresee banks or others going with Ripple if IOTA creates their own version, with none of the same issues as blockchain. Ripple was great for anyone who got in sub- $0.25, just as a spec trade but I don't see any future value in Ripple, once banks realize: Ripple is only needed for the short term, until they develop their own, most likely based on Tangle. IOTA's Tangle is better, with none of the blockchain issues. Financial powers use a Tangle based crypto created by IOTA. Governments create their own Tangle based cryptos. Ripple was a great spec trade and I'm sure made many people a lot of money. Can anyone tell me how Ripple can make money and why that justifies a crypto value of $100B+ in market cap? I can understand the spec trade, but not the value based on technology that is already outdated compared to the competition. IMO, the future belongs to IOTA or another block-less technology.
BITFINEX:XRPUSDShort
by Miykael
10