Why Hermès’ margins shame the competitionThis analysis is provided by Eden Bradfeld at BlackBull Research—sign up for their Substack to receive the latest market insights straight to your inbox.
You know my favourite stocks are luxury stocks, and they’ve had a hard last year. Richemont and Moncler were the clear standouts from the most recent season (both grew sales), while Brunello did well too. Obviously, Kering did not do well. Here’s Hermes, which pretty much smashed everyone out of the park:
Revenue amounted to €15.2 billion
(+15% at constant exchange rates and +13% at current exchange rates)
Recurring operating income reached €6.2 billion, representing 40.5% of sales
Adjusted free cash flow amounted to €3.8 billion, up by 18%
Can we take a step back and please admire what smashing results those are — that’s a luxury business which does not cut corners operating on a 40.5% margin, with a free cash flow stream that is unheard of for the luxury industry. Let’s also consider that this is during what is nominally a recession.
Worth thinking about what makes Hermes special:
A hatred of meetings, corporate hogwash, and the associated.
They compete only with themselves — not others .
Human values. Hermes objects are made by people and bought by people . Corporate hogwash tends to see people as numbers, and then corporate hogwash forgets about the importance of psychology.
A fanatical obsession with product — product is the message.
No marketing team.
If your product is good enough, and the story you communicate is good enough, the people will come. The same can be said of Brunello, which I have always said is like a “mini-Hermes” — people buy Brunello for quality and the ethos it communicates. Worth re-reading Brunello’s daily routine, which does not look like the nonsense ice bath CEOs who you see on Instagram:
Hermes
Hermes Intl. Lets Try The Screwdriver NowHermès International S.A. is a French luxury design house established on 15 June 1837. It specializes in leather goods, lifestyle accessories, home furnishings, perfumery, jewelry, watches and ready-to-wear.
Since the 1950s, its logo has been a depiction of a ducal horse-drawn carriage.
Technical graph for Hermes stocks (US Dollars - denominated) indicates they turned to extra hot levels earlier this year, somewhere in mid-February 2024.
Due to common uncertainty the bubble is going to be finally screwed.
Hermès (RMS) Faces Resistance: Breakout or Pullback?Luxury goods giant Hermès International (RMS) is testing its mettle against a key resistance level on the three-month price chart. Currently trading at $2,387, the stock has reached a critical juncture, prompting to question whether a breakout or a pullback is more likely.
The resistance level in question represents a three-month trend line, acting as a barrier for further upward price movement. Historically, similar situations have resulted in two distinct outcomes:
Breakout:
If RMS can decisively break above the resistance line, it could signal a surge in investor confidence and propel the stock to new highs. This scenario would be particularly bullish for those anticipating continued growth in the luxury goods market.
Pullback:
Alternatively, the stock could experience a pullback, retreating from the resistance level. This wouldn't necessarily be negative but could indicate a period of consolidation before another attempt to break through.
HERMES: Bearish -BUTTERFLY detected +R.O.C DivergenceHERMES: Bearish -BUTTERFLY detected +R.O.C Divergence
concerning Hermes the Wolf of Zurich detected a harmonic figure Butterfly in "Daily"
the market can go back down to its gap around 2073.
then around 1980 € and finally around 1850 according to my Wolfe wave
*
the "ROC" is in positive territory in "daily" but in "1 hour" the rock makes a divergence with the action with the market
here stay careful it was the wolf of Zurich
$METIS - Consolidating - looking good!GATEIO:METISUSDT has as proposed flipped ~$80 prior resistance to support and is now sitting in a tight accumulation pattern.
Looking at the weekly chart - we are sitting around a long term S/R -
Upcoming market dynamics - be that the full announcement of community sequencing activity, the EDF details, $HERMES V2 concentrated liquidity set up - are all quite bullish.
When we push up I am looking first to see the FV Gap at around $130 get taken before a pullback to distribute prior to another push towards the heavy duty S/R in the $160's
The timeframe for this is quite variable, and given how much excitement and OI is forming around the Andromeda chain, quite possible to see some market maker shenanigans - i.e. some heavy dumping on the way up to mop up some of the leveraged capital that is sloshing around.
Personally - I'm looking for a Q1 target price of $130-160 - which would mark a 100% return if you only entered here.
Is there a possibility that we get a pullback to the $60's - yes absolutely but Risk : Reward here is skewed toward spot $METIS and ecosystem rewards during these fluctuations.
Providing volatile liquidity to $HERMES:$METIS for example (hermes.maiadao.io) is providing an ample (non-boosted) APR around 102% whilst this plays out.
Using leverage on $METIS at the moment seems like a fools errand.
Good Hunting
LATE IMPACT OF CRISIS ON LUXURY GIANT - HERMES - RMS - 30MNThe large uptrend line can be duplicated to see all other parallel levels where the market have found support/resistance.
The price have then been ranging horizontally, after having broken this large uptrend line.
Now it is time to consider the probability of seeing the market price fall a bit.
The break of the lower part of the rectangles will validate that probability.
In the other side, two natural upper resistance formed by the top of the two squares. Probability of pullback down from those points.
Any break of the square up or down will be a nice entry point.
Time to take profits for investor to reduce exposition and come back stronger after the probable share price fall.
BTCUSD is getting ready?The price is still moving below the Hermes indicator that i built. The blue line represents the support and the red one represents the resistance. As you will see the sell signal received on 3rd of October at 7 o'clock. There is no clear sign of reversal yet, following the price movements.
DAX WHEN WILL IT REVERSE?The price is still moving below the Hermes indicator that i built. The blue line represents the support and the red one represents the resistance. As you will see the sell signal received on 1st of October at 12 o'clock. There is no clear sign of reversal yet, following the price movements.