HollyFrontier Long HFC - Bullish divergence on weekly and dailyHolly Frontier Corporation
Bullish divergence on Weekly and Daily
Weekly
To be precise, it’s not a pure divergence. Prices dit not really go lower then the previous bottom. But in light of the global market recovery and the hard hits that the Energy sector went through, it is likely that it will at least pullback during these bullish developments we’re seeing right now, perhaps even a reversal.
The trend is down.
But we did hit the previous bottom only for a very short while, resulting in a down wick. it rejected that price level obviously, there where no more sellers there and the price turned up. Last week the market gapped up and only went higher.
It resulted in a nice channel divergence for sure. Meaning, the previous bottom was around the -5 ATR level, with a lot of power. This down move only went to the -2 ATR level. MACD-H is turning up as well, and diverging, as is Elder Force Index.
Stochastic RSI has crossed up, and %D is turning up as well, coming from an maximum oversold condition.
Only troublesome thing is that the weekly also shows an upwick, to the -1 ATR level but went down again to only close a bit higher then the previous weeks close.
Let’s have a look if we can find more certainties on the daily
Daily
There are two bullish divergences as well here, and the price has risen to above the value zone. After the price turned up, the last candle gave up the gains of the previous day. This is a nice oppurtunity, as long as this does not topping out completely ending the upmove.
Also, Stochastic RSI seems to cross again and it is overbought.
The trade is surely interesting and I will enter in thirds.
The rest will be added by keeping an eye on the 4H chart to see when MACD-H is ticking up again and forming a next higher low on this timeframe, and then decide to add to the trade.
Monthly:
I have checked the monthly as well, and the impulse is turning yellow here, but the candle is only halffway.
It also shows it fell through the support level. This will be a resistance level when this trade pans out.
The trade could become more interesting if we pinch through that level and the monthly will turn up again. It could then become a bigger move to the monthly EMA.
Interesting to keep an eye on this Timeframe as well.
Entry: 1/3 @ 20.87
Stoploss: 18.7
Projected targets:
Target 1: 29.25
Target 2: 33.63
R/R ratio: 1:3.86
R/R ratio: 1:5.88
Note:
As the trade develops, ATR levels change as well. It could be that I move up my targets, as in my trading style, the targets are dynamic.
I will exit in thirds as well. And move a stoploss when a higher low has been formed.
I will try to update the trades here as well, regarding changed targets and stoplosses.
HFC
$HFC On The Verge Of A BreakoutWith the epic collapse in oil prices, time to take a look at the refiner. $HFC has caught our attention as the stock is on the verge of a breakout.
HollyFrontier Corporation (NYSE:HFC) is a refiner that owns 457,000 barrels per day (BPD) of Mid-Continent, Rockies, and New Mexico transport fuels refining capacity and 15,600 BPD of lubricating oil refining capacity. HollyFrontier also has controlling interest in midstream partnership Holly Energy Partners (NYSE:HEP) which trades separately from the HFC stock.
Even though demand is global, it happens that most of HollyFrontier's markets are inland and less densely-populated. As the CDC map shows, these Rockies and Mid-Continent states (in yellow, yellow-orange, and orange) have experienced a lower number of Covid-19 infections; they are likely to be some of the first states to re-open.
$HFC has a dividend yield of 5.27% and trades at 5x cash and 3.43x FCF.
Good luck to all!
Crak'n Up - Refiners Are Not At A Level Worth Buying Yet"Refinery stocks are not ripe just yet, especially with crack spreads as weak as they are. We're already seeing three of the top four holdings in CRAK begin to roll over, including Marathon, Velaro, and Holly Frontier. Phillips 66 is the outlier.
We continue to wait for CRAK to reach to range bottom with a confluence of crack spreads. If refiners continue to breakdown, we'll revisit prior to the summer gas demand season."
CRAK intermediate TACVOL
CRAK 31.88/26.16
MPC 71.04/56.04
PSX 104.02/82.85
HFC 67.49/45.38
VLO 92.70/69.64
MPC: Long term uptrend signal$MPC has an excellent long term uptrend signal at play here. If not long you should average in over 3 days at least, risking a drop to 43.42, or 3 daily average ranges down. Targets are 89.66 and potentially up to 143.09 in the long run, to be hit by or before Q4 2019.
My mentor, Tim West has been adamant about $MPC's strengt, and so far he's been right. This stock has shown relative strength, selling off less than its peers and rallying more and with lower volatility, indicating that there are some big players involved, buying in the background.
Fundamentals are great for this company, and valuation is compelling, so it's a really low risk trade.
I'd reccomend holding this and $PBF for exposure in this sector.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
PBF: Excellent 'Time at Mode' signalsPBF is tracing a downtrend, sadly, since it didn't bottom at the recent low...I had to take a loss on my recent entries, and I'll wait for it to hit the lower targets to reenter. My idea is perhaps to short put options at the target, and either get assigned, or get profit from the premium on expiry. Either way, it's a great trade if we take the long side.
Fundamentals are good, and this is a good addition to any portfolio, we just need to time a good entry here and let it ride. The yield is worth it.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Short MPCIf oil takes a significant dip overnight, I will be short MPC. I don't think there is any fundamental to support this stock to the upside anyways, so I am shorting calls. Plus I am not much of an options buyer unless to trying to hit a home run.
The blue line represents options expiration day. These are 4h bars.
Important to note that NOT all refiners are trading in tandem. MPC and TSO are down today, while HFC, PSX, and VLO are all up.
Note TSO and HFC report their second quarter 2016 results 8/3.
HIGH VOL: KEEP WATCHING!!!Look guys, this is the same Fib retracement that has HELD since the Jan-Feb selloff. Do not take my word for it. Look at my previous predictions, load the new data, and see how much money was made.
MPC has had a history of bucking the market. When SPX was down 2%, this was down 7%. When SPX was up 3%, this was up over 8.5%. This is a lower liquidity, higher volatility play.
I am NEUTRAL on MPC. To be honest, I've put no money into for a long time. Money could have been made straddling the 2nd fib level, but the reaction to Brexit (not the market reaction to Brexit itself) has caused everybody to look at everything closer, and rightly so.)
Here's what we know: MPC is range-bound in the 2nd fib level. We also know it's good for a 8% pop or drop in a one session. Is that within your risk tolerance?? It's not within mine.
Conclusion: IF YOU DO NOT HAVE TO TRADE, DO NOT TRADE. I honestly would not look at this stock until after earnings (July 28th). That will give the market plenty of time to digest new capital inflows from stock buy-backs, and allow for a reaction that may be based on technicals vs. fundamentals.
There is money to be made, but patience is a virtue. If you see something I don't?....Please share! I need to eat too...
Cash in: No hold weekend for meNo reason to hold anything over the weekend unless you have to. Something smelly about the markets. I can feel the SPY wanting to sell.
MPC rallied up testing 37.00 fib level. It tested that level and it did not breach. The chart indicates overall bullish. It has/is building a nice $35 floor for itself. THE MODEL HAS NOT BEEN RE-DRAWN AND MPC IS TRADING PER THOSE FIB LEVELS SINCE MY FIRST MPC FIB POST. You can put a strangle on at 37.00 and 35.00 if you can afford to be that close to the money, but my money is better off elsewhere.
Now, if it rallies to $37.80, that'd make a nice cup formation. MPC has history of cup-and-handle breakout (see older chart).
Now, if you have followed my posts, you will have noticed me repeatedly saying that MPC has a history of bucking the SPY. It has. With that said, it's outside my own personal risk appetite.
Have a good weekend!
Buy or Sell MPC Earnings Rally? I'll let the chart speak for itself.
The chart was drawn prior to today's open.
Stay Long MPCIf you went bullish on calls per my previous post, you are enjoying a nice pop today. My time horizon is longer so I am holding until $38.75 (the next fib level). The MA just crossed and I want that to marinate for a few sessions. You should be just playing with house money now if you bought the day or day after I posted.
This is technicals-only trade devoid of any fundamentals if that had to be said for this website! The narrative is refiners have been oversold for the past couple weeks. The market has realized that now. I'm not paying attention to anything in action in CL or any news about Nigeria. That is all noise to me.
The only thing I'm paying attention to is that MA cross and the two fib lines that define my stop/sell positions.
Buy MPC callsGet em while they're cheap! You might find cheaper premiums on HFC as they nose-dived yesterday, but MPC has stronger fundamentals IMO.
And a reminder like always, MPC has a history of bucking the market the market: SPY.
In regard to fundamentals, this is an oversold reaction to MPC and other refiners' posting losses for Q1 2016. We all knew the refining margins honeymoon would come to a close eventually. This is a response not in rising crude prices, but rather a response to the lack of rise of gasoline prices (the other leg that makes up the refining crack spread).
BREAKOUT? MPC Fib Re-DrawnPlease compare this to my previous post where I had drawn the Fib retracement. I have redrawn this to capture the double bottoms. I was not sure if it could break out from it's previous fib level and so far this previous retracement model is holding up.
I have said this many times, but will say it again. MPC has a history of bucking the market and is doing so today. In fact, all refiners are selling off today. SPY is flat but not MPC, VLO, or PSX.
MPC momentum losses steamToday's was the first breakout for MPC from the fib retracement. It is topping out back to the January lows. This MAY be a point to where the trade switches from fundamentals before it trades off of something technical. Just general discussion.
I sold today. Please comment.
ABCD Retraced, now fallinginto earnings in the morning it is falling back after retracing over 38.2% of the AB=CD, options looking for $1.10 move by Friday
