Silver - a breakout from a multiyear consolidationThe price of silver futures contracts has been broken an upper limit within a multiyear consolidation which has been creating since 2016. However, before the breakout the potential divergence between the price and market positioning could be spotted.
The data from the COT report may signal that the price may go even further to the upside because there are no significant long positions. The next potential resistance may be located near 35,20 USD.
The nearest potential support could be located at a broken 21,30 USD level.
________
Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.
Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
79% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Hg
ridethepig | A game changer break in play for Copper/Gold ratio We can experiment with the opening here in the copper/gold ratio as commodity shortages begin to make the rounds as widely expected.
📌 Probably the most sensible response is to prepare for a slingshot into Copper with reversed flows in and out of Gold.
Shortages/
It seems to be an inflection point at an early stage in the crisis. I would have preferred here to have seen the commodity shortages be avoided as more civil unrest will always follow. In a situation where monetary stimulus cannot solve a health crisis and no longer has the possibility at its disposal. We can conduct a whole new round of charts for commodities and look to play the currency exchange legs accordingly.
As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Copper (HG) comes back to the support attack in the $ 2.54 areaBeyond all fakeouts, for copper until now the area $ 2.54 has proven to be hard to breakthrough. If the US stock market maintains its bearish bias also in March, then most likely this will be a right time to see copper below $ 2.50. However, the decline will be more pronounced on the copper at the LME (London Metal Exchange) than on that at the NYMEX.
Be careful though, copper certainly suffers from the situation in China due to the 2019-nCoV, but keep in mind that China was the first infected nation and will be the first to resume, compared to other countries affected by the virus.
Copper (HG), FLAG + Harmonic Pattern-CMP 2.59Copper is forming Inverse Flag Pattern with Harmonic ABCD pattern, it may test to 2.64 at point D, in order to complete ABCD pattern. at same time it may show false upside breakout.
We have to wait for reversal candle at 2.64 level to make short position of Flag pattern target.
Sharing is caring, for educational purpose only.
Long-Term Prospects of CopperCopper, symbol, HG, price action is giving us an early warning of a Bear Market with price trading above the 50 week ema, which is below both the 200 and 800 week emas, with the 200 still above the 800. Price is currently above the 9/13/30/50 week emas, so it currently is in a rally, but the long term emas are mostly flat, telling us we are in a accumulation/distribution phase. The long term candle sticks tell us to have caution here, with long upper whicks and the dark cloud for this week. Elliott Wave tells us we should be expecting the end of this year and a half long triangle with the e-wave putting in a top.
On the even longer-term perspective, this market is clearly targeting 1.4, where I expect a multi-year bounce. The bounce will proceed prices below 1.25, so let that sink in. Put that out of your mind for Today though, the thing you should be noticing here is how price is drawn to the equilibrium point of prior consolidations. That gives us a good idea of where price will be drawn to as this correction continues.
The Commodity is in a Bear Market Rally with price trading above the 50 day ema, though the 50 is above the 200, yet still below the 800 day emas. The 50 day ema is currently up trending, though price just dropped down through the 13 ema and tested the 30 ema. We’ve had three pushes up from the (d) – wave low and it looks like at peak formation for the (e) – wave is starting to form. Would expect to see a rally back up to 2.84 next week along with a stop hunt high before a strong sell-off gets under way.
The Commodity is in a Correction of a Bull Market on the 4 hour, with price below the 50 ema, which is above the 200 ema, which is above the 800 ema. Price traded down to just above the 200 ema this week, will probably give it another test early next week before aggressively bouncing back up to the highs in order to finish out the peak formation later in the week.
This is my Copper look ahead for my own trading purposes. COMMODITIES trading involves risk. Feel free to comment, but trade off of this post at your own peril.
This is my Copper look ahead for my own trading purposes. COMMODITIES trading involves risk. Feel free to comment, but trade off of this post at your own peril.
Lets see where Copper wants to run- Because well, it wants to.Spoke with someone last night who emphasized the uptick in security at construction sites more or less specifically for people stealing COPPER. I am going to COP some COPPER. Don't do what I do. This is not financial advice. I do not know how to trade or chart, and this idea is just art : )
- Namnaste'
Happy Monday fam
P.S. Trade Futures? Send me a PM. Opening the doors to my small Discord today. If you are a serious trader- would love you to check out our community!
Copper testing bounds of decade necklineCopper is interestingly a great gauge of economic health coming from Asia, and also a relevant view on global growth / inflationary expectations. We've been battling two head and shoulder formations since the GFC. First, the very large commodity bubble formed a big head and shoulders that peaked roughly around 2012, a time where China had maxed out its credit expansion. We got a smaller head and shoulders in the post 2015-2016 deflationary episode that tested the original trendline and bounced during the 2016-2018 bull market.
The smaller head and shoulders finally broke down, which led to Copper testing the boundary of the bigger head and shoulders. I expect this to break, although there will likely be some testing of this first.
Note: this is not just a technical move. There are many fundamental reasons Copper is breaking down, mostly macro related to USD strength, asian weakness, over-expansion of Chinese credit, weakening demand, etc etc. Copper interestingly mirrors the Korean Kospi index very closely, and that is also breaking down from a major long term trendline right now. Expect more deflation, and some big market problems when this finally confirms the break of the lower trendline.
"COPPER (XCUUSD): ready to go up" by ThinkingAntsOkDaily Chart Explanation:
- Price is against a Weekly Support Zone.
- Price is under a Descending Trendline.
- Bullish Divergence on MACD.
- If price breaks the Descending Trendline at 2.68, potential to move up towards the Resistance Zone at 2.96 and, then, to the Weekly Resistance Zone at 3.2.
Our Weekly Vision supports this potential long idea. Take a look!
Weekly Vision:
Updates coming soon!
Copper: Significant upside potential.Copper is on a 4H bullish leg (RSI = 62.650, MACD = 0.014, Highs/Lows = 0.0064), after finding support around 2.6000. It just crossed (marginally) above the MA50 and on similar patterns since September 18, this calls for a bullish extension at least towards 2.8400, which is our TP. Breaking above the MA200 enhances the probability for a test at the 2.95000 1D Resistance.
** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. **
Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
HG1! $HG_F - Copper At A Key Inflection PointIt's been a couple of tough months for Copper as the metal was unable to go topside of the $3 level and subsequently broke below important support at the $2.84 figure, which precipitated its recent slide down the slippery slope where we now find the Good Dr. attempting to hold its 40-Week (200 DMA) as evidenced in the Weekly chart above.
While the landscape presently finds Copper in shortage as well as seasonality about to change to a favorable posture at the end of June coupled with large Short exposure via investors/traders, we wonder whether Copper can hold the line and perhaps stage a reversal of fortune from these levels ($2.64)?
With the Jury still out and awaiting its verdict, both investors/traders may want to keep a close eye on the metal moving forward for signs/clues for a potential break in either direction.
Nonetheless, Copper finds itself at a key inflection point, which depending on which way she decides to break (Higher or Lower) will set the tone in the weeks ahead.
Take Two, and Call Me In the Morning - Dr. CopperCopper is in trouble as ongoing data out of China (and broader APAC/ASEAN nations). Just moments ago, South Korea's first 10-days of exports contracted 19.1 percent YoY and imports dropped 15.4 percent. South Korea is a global bellwether for economic growth and the first of the Asian countries to report.
Quantitatively, we'd short copper at the TACVOL range top which is available to premium members.
Here are the current near- and intermediate copper ranges that update daily. Effectively, short or sell at the top, buy or cover at the bottom.
Near-term: 2.97/2.57
Intermediate: 3.03/2.57
The 20-week z-score is 2.12 which indicates it is more than two deviations from the mean. A healthy pull back is in the works.