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Copper Futures HG1!

ridethepig | Base Metals StrategyThe linkage between base metals and the rate differentials is unknown to many in the pseudo-classical school of TA, which believe only in absolute correlation; as you all know the supply disruptions and pandemic related closures triggered the waterfall but we are not out of the woods yet...Remember we still have the demand side shock to play into price too, this will allow us to complete a 'wave 2' pullback with an ABC correction. The revisions down in mining supplies was enough to spark an interest in buyers, and now that most believe we have seen the worst from the demand side it is allowing Copper to form a MT and LT base formation. Those tracking the mining projects in Brazil will know the announcements for a restart in operations have already started. This is going to keep Copper and Steel in particular in strong bid. 📍 On the positioning side, after the healthy (in a technical sense) neutralisation of the entire commodity board we have cleared both sides of the extremes and positioning is currently neutral. The majority must not be allowed on this train, or else the threat of an over-crowded wedge would be disastrous. Take for example what happened against Oil, the boat was fully loaded and we got the historic shakeout: Eyeballing a test of 2.3 as the value area to re-engage with bullish exposure. We can then bring about the transfer from the wave 2 retrace into an impulsive wave 3. This will be excellent training for those wanting to dig deeper into wave theory and understand the complicated motifs. As usual, thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
OANDA:XCUUSDLong
by ridethepig
Weekly copper market review 11/30/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COPPER Last week, COMEX copper futures closed higher at $3.4010 per pound, the highest value since late 2013. Speculative trading is pushing copper prices higher, with net positions of the net commitments of traders at +68K being on historical highs. Copper stocks are historically low and declining. They stand at 317706 MT, a decrease of more than 3%, or nearly 10,000 MT. Inventories in Shanghai have fallen by 74.5% since the end of March, and given the forecast deficit of the red metal, the trend should continue in the coming months. Last week, the US and Euro zone manufacturing PMIs came out at 56.7 and 53.6 respectively. On Monday, China's Manufacturing PMI came out at 52.1. This confirms the good resilience of the manufacturing sector in general, as a reminder a figure above 50 indicates an expansion of the sector. The Euro zone and the US followed an 8th month of expansion and China a 9th. Internationally, the prospect of Janet Yellen, former FED president, becoming Secretary of the Treasury in Joe Biden's future administration, and the hope of a vaccine is fuelling markets. Many countries are preparing vaccination campaigns. Investors are also anticipating a massive stimulus package, with increased government spending, which is weakening the dollar. The dollar is still low and in a downward trend, the DXY closes at 91.790. While waiting for a vaccine, the pandemic is not weakening. We have just passed 62 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.460 million deaths. The United States is the most affected country with more than 267,000 deaths and more than 13 million cases. ECONOMIC RESULTS - Last week, manufacturing PMIs in the Euro-Zone came out down to 53.6 in November from 54.8 in October. U.S. manufacturing PMIs rose to 56.7 in November from 53.4 in October. - On Monday, China's manufacturing PMIs stood at 52.1 in November compared with 51.4 in October. - On Tuesday, Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI and Inflation, U.S. Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI. - On Wednesday, Euro zone unemployment and U.S. job creation. - Thursday, retail sales in the Euro zone, U.S. unemployment registrations. - Friday, the report on U.S. employment and industrial orders CERTIFIED COPPER STOCKS - London Stock Exchange copper stocks are down to 150775 MT from 157350 MT last week. - Copper stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange decreased to 92912 MT from 96766 MT the previous week. - Copper stocks on the New York Stock Exchange were down to 74019 MT from 74290 MT the previous week. - Total copper stocks were down to 317706 MT compared to 328406 MT the previous week. Total copper stocks are below the five-year average. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a range of foreign currencies closed last week down to 91.790, and the trend is still bearish. This is the first close below the 92 resistance level in almost 2 1/2 years. The presumed appointment of Janet Yellen as U.S. Treasury Secretary and Joe Biden's talk of a massive $3 trillion support package weighed on the Dollar. Forex traders are anticipating an increase in the money supply. In addition, U.S. unemployment figures, consumer confidence indexes and inflation figures disappointed last week. A low Dollar is generally favorable to the Dollar-denominated commodities markets.
COMEX:HG1!
by Commodity-market-review
High grade copper HG looking bullsihCopper traded on the COMEX looks bullish. Currently at 3.20 per pound, the chart shows an Eve and Adam bottom forming between 2015 and now. The expected target of this move would be 4.70 which would put the market five cents above its old high set in Feb 2011 of 4.65. From 4.65 I would expect the market to revisit the 3.30-3.60 region to make a strong bottom for a longer term ascent. Looking back further on the copper chart, there is a longer term Adam and Eve bottom forming starting in Dec 2008 to present. The target would be 7.365 based off of this longer term pattern. If copper were to trade up to 4.70 area and come back down to 3.50 area, it would also present an opportunity for an ascending triangle to form with the same target, 7.365, as the Adam and Eve pattern. With a weakening dollar, look to copper for guidance on inflation going forward.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by ngordon
3
Weekly copper market review 11/23/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COPPER Last week, COMEX copper futures closed higher at $3.2910 per pound. Hope for a vaccine is fuelling the markets, and Pfizer and Moderna announced very encouraging results. Many countries, such as the United States, Germany, Spain and others, are already preparing vaccination campaigns. The pandemic continues unabated, with more than 58 million cases worldwide and more than 1.382 million deaths. The United States is the most affected country with more than 256,000 deaths and more than 12 million cases. The hope of a vaccine, as well as the prospects of a massive stimulus package, is driving the markets. The dollar is still low and in a downward trend, the DXY closes at 92.392. Copper stocks are historically low and declining. Copper stocks are down sharply to 328406 MT, a drop of 8.27%, or nearly 30000 MT . This confirms the good health of the Chinese manufacturing sector and China's willingness to accumulate strategic stocks of the red metal. Chinese industrial production was up 6.9% in October, for the 7th consecutive increase. Over the first 10 months of this year, Chinese imports were up 40% compared with 2019, with 5.6 million tonnes of refined copper compared with 4 million tonnes in 2019. China is the world's largest importer of copper, and data suggests an acceleration of the economic recovery in Q4. ECONOMIC RESULTS - Last week, China's industrial production was +6.9% in October. In the United States, retail sales were down to +0.2% in October from +1.2% in September, and US industrial production was down to +1.1% in October. - On Monday, manufacturing PMI in the Euro zone were at 53.6 in November compared with 54.8 in October, and composite Markit PMI at 45.1 in November compared with 50 in October, a sign of the slowdown in the recovery in the Euro zone. The US manufacturing PMI rose to 56.7 in November from 53.4 in October. - On Wednesday, orders for durable goods, inflation, unemployment registrations, and U.S. GDP. - Thursday, Thanksgiving in the US. ECB report. - Friday, Thanksgiving and close of trading at 13:00. CERTIFIED COPPER STOCKS - London Stock Exchange copper stocks are down to 157350 MT from 165200 MT last week. - Copper stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange were down to 96766 MT from 117949 MT the previous week. - Copper stocks on the New York Stock Exchange were down to 74290 MT from 74830 MT the previous week. - Total copper stocks were down to 328406 MT compared to 357979 MT the previous week. Total copper stocks are below the five-year average. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a range of foreign currencies closed last week down to 92.392, and the trend is still bearish. Joe Biden, who will be invested on January 20, spoke of a $3 trillion support plan. Forex traders are anticipating an increase in the money supply. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has called on the FED to return unused funds from emergency aid programs for the coronavirus crisis. The FED has decided to do so, although it considers this decision premature. Last week, this did not cause much movement in the currency market, which remained relatively calm. A low dollar is generally favorable to the dollar-denominated commodity markets. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators). The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe. The net speculative position on the copper futures markets is up this week to 67.162 K instead of 65.069 K.
COMEX:HG1!
by Commodity-market-review
Copper smashing new highs and it isn't even 2021 On the back of growing demand out of China (50% of global demand), Asia recovery and general optimism from Vaccine news, Copper has reached record levels that haven't been seen since June 2018. Last night's U.S. manufacturing in November saw the quickest pickup since September 2014, driving expectations of higher base metals demand in the US for next year. Low prices have kept new copper mines from developing, and a shortage of scrap has also helped drive up pricing. At $3.00 per pound, copper becomes an attractive investment for new miners, so no doubt new copper mining projects will be speed up. Nevertheless, new mines take a while and increasing demand will continue to put prices under pressure for the immediate future.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by majicktrader
Weekly copper market 11/16/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COPPER Last week, COMEX copper futures closed higher at $3.1780 per pound. Hopes for a vaccine are fuelling the markets, Moderna announced very encouraging results on Monday. The pandemic continues unabated, we have just surpassed 54 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.320 million deaths. Faced with the second wave, Europe has been confined. The United States is the most affected country with more than 246,000 deaths and more than 11 million cases, and is also taking restrictive measures such as in New Jersey and Michigan. The copper market is still bullish, the hope of a vaccine with Pfizer or Moderna, as well as the prospects of a massive recovery plan with the Biden administration are carrying the markets. The dollar is still low and in a bearish trend, the DXY closes Friday at 92.755. In addition, copper stocks are historically low and declining. COMEX+LME+SHFE stocks are at 357979 MT. The good health of China's manufacturing sector and its willingness to accumulate stocks is fuelling the upward movement. Chinese industrial production was up 6.9% in October, for the 7th consecutive increase. Over the first 10 months of this year, Chinese imports were up 40% compared with 2019, with 5.6 million tonnes of refined copper compared with 4 million tonnes in 2019. China is the world's largest copper importer. ECONOMIC RESULTS - Last week, Chinese exports increased by +11.4% in October, and imports on the other hand disappointed with +4.7% against +9.5% expected. Industrial production in the Euro zone dropped to -0.4% in September for +0.7% expected. - On Monday, the Chinese industrial production was +6.9% in October, the unemployment rate in China is 5.3%. The New York FED manufacturing index fell to 6.30 in November from 10.50 in October. - Tuesday, US retail sales and industrial production. - Wednesday, Euro zone inflation, US building permits. - Thursday, U.S. Unemployment Claims, Philadelphia FED Manufacturing Index. CERTIFIED COPPER STOCKS - London Stock Exchange copper stocks are down to 165200 MT from 172450 MT last week. - Copper stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange were down to 117949 MT from 139657 MT the previous week. - Copper stocks on the New York Stock Exchange rose to 74830 MT from 73568 MT the previous week. - Total copper stocks were down to 357979 MT compared to 377339 MT the previous week. Total copper stocks are below the five-year average. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week up to 92.755, after a sharp decline in early November. The U.S. elections will continue to bring volatility to the currency market. Joe Biden will be sworn in on January 20, the Senate remains Republican for now, but a second round will be held on January 5 in Georgia. There is still a lot of uncertainty about the size and date of the famous plan to support the American economy. The Fed has announced that it will increase its "firepower" if necessary. Forex traders therefore anticipate an increase in the money supply. The pandemic is not weakening, Europe has reconfirmed itself in the face of the second wave, the United States is also taking new measures of restrictions in certain states. The hope of a vaccine, with the announcement of Pfizer, calms the markets and prevents for the moment the dollar from playing its role as a safe haven. Caution is still called for, however, as many questions about vaccines remain unanswered. The dollar has a strong influence on the price of raw materials, and it will be very difficult to predict its evolution in the coming months. A low dollar is generally favorable to the dollar-denominated raw materials market.
COMEX:HG1!
by Commodity-market-review
Weekly copper market review 11/09/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COPPER Last week, COMEX copper futures closed higher at $3.1540 per pound. As the Dollar dropped sharply this week, the DXY rose from 94.09236 at the end of last week. The pandemic continues unabated, with more than 50 million cases worldwide and more than 1.250 million deaths. Faced with the 2nd wave, Europe is confining itself or imposing curfews. The United States is the first country to exceed 100,000 new cases in one day. Joe Biden wants to set up a crisis unit. In Europe, many non-essential businesses are closed such as bars and restaurants. Last week, the October Caixin manufacturing PMI, representing small and medium enterprises in China came out at 53.6 for 53 expected, above 50 for the 6th month in a row, confirming the recovery of the Chinese manufacturing sector . Euro zone manufacturing PMI was at 54.8 for 54.4 expected, and U.S. manufacturing PMI was at 53.4. In Chile, cumulative copper production up to September was up +0.4% to 4.26 million tonnes. Chile is the world's largest copper producer. Total copper stocks are down to 377,339 MT, below the five-year average. In the United States, Joe Biden will be sworn in on 20 January 2021, the Senate remains Republican for the moment, but there will be a second round in Georgia on 05 January. If the Democrats win both seats, that would bring the distribution to 50-50 seats, and Vice President Kamala Harris could constitutionally break the tie. In the absence of a majority in the Senate, voting on a plan to support the U.S. economy would be made more difficult. This leaves uncertainty as to the timing and amount of the plan. Last week the Fed reaffirmed its willingness to support the US economy and is ready to "increase its firepower" if necessary. The dollar fell sharply, with the DXY dropping from over 94 at the beginning of last week to close Friday at 92.236, a drop that benefited all dollar-denominated commodities. ECONOMIC RESULTS - Last week, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI representing small and medium enterprises in China came out at 53.6 for 53 expected. The Euro-Zone Manufacturing PMI was at 54.8 for 54.4 expected, and the U.S. Manufacturing PMI was at 53.4. Euro-zone retail sales were -2.00% compared with +4.2% in August. - On Saturday, Chinese exports increased by +11.4% in October, while imports disappointed with +4.7% against +9.5% expected. - Tuesday, inflation in China, the ZEW index of economic sentiment in the Euro zone. - Thursday, inflation and US unemployment registrations, industrial production in the Euro zone. - Friday, Euro-zone GDP and Michigan Consumer Confidence Index. CERTIFIED COPPER STOCKS - Copper stocks on the London Stock Exchange, are up to 172450 MT from 171300 MT last week. - Copper stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange were down to 131321 for 139657 MT the previous week. - Copper stocks on the New York Stock Exchange are up to 73568 MT from 72357 previously. - Total copper stocks are down to 377,339 MT compared to 383,314 MT last week. Total copper stocks are below the five-year average. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week, down sharply at 92.236. The U.S. elections will continue to bring volatility to the currency market. Joe Biden will be sworn in January 20, the Senate remains Republican for now, but a second round will be needed in Georgia. Therefore, there is still a lot of uncertainty about the size and date of the famous plan to support the American economy. Last week's statements by the FED certainly weighed heavily on the dollar. The FED announced that it could increase "its firepower" if necessary. Forex traders are therefore anticipating an increase in the money supply. On Sunday, the United States experienced a record covid-19 for the 4th consecutive day, and even though the news was dominated by the elections, the pandemic could be remembered by investors if the US faces a 2nd wave similar to the one hitting Europe. A return of the dollar as a safe haven is not a possibility to be ignored. The dollar has a strong influence on the price of raw materials, and it will be very difficult to predict its evolution in the coming months. A low dollar is generally favorable to the dollar-denominated commodity markets. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators). The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe. The net speculative position on the copper futures markets is down this week to 61.638 K instead of 66.916 K.
COMEX:HG1!
by Commodity-market-review
Weekly copper market review 11/02/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COPPER Last week, COMEX copper futures closed lower at $3.0470 per pound. The worsening health situation with a sharp increase in covid-19 cases in the US and Europe has strongly impacted the markets last week. With the magnitude of the second wave, Europe is reconfirming itself, as is the case in Ireland, Czech Republic, France, Germany, England, Portugal, Austria, and countries such as Spain and Italy, and others are taking increasingly drastic measures, such as curfews, closing bars and restaurants, or limiting people in meetings. The United States is seeing a record number of covid cases in the run-up to the election. The rise of the dollar also weighs on the price of copper. It can be explained by the safe haven status of the greenback, and by the postponement of the American support plan. Chilean copper production amounted to 484K tons for September, a decrease of 0.8% compared to 2019. Accumulated production in September amounted to 3,302 thousand tons, an increase of 0.5%. Chile is the world's largest copper producer. Total copper stocks are down to 383314 MT, losing 23415 tons in one week. In the United States, the American election is scheduled for tomorrow, November 3, and tensions in the market cannot be excluded. Investors fear the possibility that Donald Trump will be declared a narrow loser and do not want to recognize the results, making the transition more complicated and delaying the vote on the long-awaited plan to support the US economy. ECONOMIC RESULTS - Last week, as a pleasant surprise, US GDP rose by +33.1% in Q3 for an expected 31%, and in the Euro zone, GDP was +12.7% in Q3 for only +9.4% expected. - On Saturday, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 51.4 for an expected 51.3. - On Monday, the Caixin manufacturing PMI representing small and medium enterprises in China comes out at 53.6 for 53 expected. The Euro zone manufacturing PMI is at 54.8 for 54.4 expected, and the U.S. manufacturing PMI is at 53.4. - Tuesday, the U.S. presidential election and industrial orders. - Thursday, Euro-zone retail sales. - Friday, the U.S. employment report. CERTIFIED COPPER STOCKS - Copper stocks on the London Stock Exchange are down to 171300 MT from 180300 MT last week. - Copper stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange were down to 139657 for 155506 MT the previous week. - Copper stocks on the New York Stock Exchange are up to 72357 MT from 70923 previously. - Total copper stocks are down to 383314 MT compared to 406729 MT last week. Total copper stocks are below the five-year average. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week up to 93.882. The 2nd epidemic wave is scaring the market and the Dollar seems to be playing its role as a safe-haven currency. The chances of a quick agreement on a plan to support the U.S. economy are now nil. We will have to wait now for the election result, and this is beneficial to the Dollar in the short term. On the FED side, things will certainly remain frozen until the outcome of the American election. The FED has insisted on the need for a quick vote of a support plan, and assures that the key rates will remain permanently low. A low dollar is generally favorable for dollar-denominated commodity markets. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators). The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe. The net speculative position on the copper futures markets is down this week to 66.916 K instead of 67.265 K.
COMEX:HG1!
by Commodity-market-review
50-80% ROI since March Lows for these MetalsTake a look at this comparison chart and see the ROI for these few important Metals performance. The best is COPPER and the worst is Platinum since the March Low. I am investing for the long term and will wait for healthy correction to add more long positions. And I have reiterated the volatility of this PM and personally, I do not take a large positions in each of these PMs. I am often asked how to diversify your portfolio ? The answer is pretty straight forward. It depends on the size of your capital. If you are starting out with a small capital of say 5 to 10,000, then I would say 50% in SPX500 and the rest in growth stocks. If you have 100,000 to 500,000 then it becomes easier to allocate a certain % of your capital to other assets class like PMs. And even then, start with 1 or 2 before adding as this over-concentration can cause some traders/investors sleepless nights like the recent March crash. Imagine you have all 5 of these PMs, a 10% fall in 1 metal is amplified by 5 times if you purchased all though the reverse is true as well. So, how much risks you can stomach has also to do with your capital base and your personality, imo. Also, there are many complicated instruments out there being promoted by various brokers like DLCs, leveraged ETFs, options, etc. Personally, I do not have expertise in these instruments and would not comment if it is worthwhile. Just managing my own portfolio across commodities, stocks, futures, ETFs, currencies IS MORE THAN ENOUGH for me to handle. Then again, to each his own. If you have the bandwidth and knowledge , it is OK to expand your investment reach into these new products. But always start small and gradually inch in as you gain more confidence.
OANDA:XPDUSDLong
by dchua1969
2
HGCOPPER - BUY - 4H SupportHGCOPPER - BUY - 4H Support Buy @ Current/Market Stop Loss @ 3.04211 Take Profit @ 3.19432 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 🔺 Disclaimer! The content of this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice. 🔺 It is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions. 🔺 You must do your own research to create your own trading plan for the market. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMEX:HG1!Long
by UnknownUnicorn5418842
#Copper - Higher High - Position yourself long term #XCUUSDToday, August 19, 2020, the 2019 April high within wave 1 of wave III was taken out of the market. Whoever wants to earn real money in the next few years, as with gold and silver stocks, can now also position himself with copper or its producers. I introduced a few in the last YT video. In my opinion, price setbacks should be used for strategic entry or position building. Greetings to yesterday's participants from Hayek-Club Hannover Stefan Bode
OANDA:XCUUSDLong
by StefanBode
3