leftey's guide to 2020here i have planned out the 3 bump plan. you pick the ending. fun right?
leave a comment if have something to add!
Copper Futures HG1!
Copper Futures (HG1!) WeeklyDates in the future with the highest probability for price direction reversals
COPPER Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Bullish if the price breaks the 1D MA200 or if it tests 2.500 again.
Target: 2.800 (right below the Resistance Zone).
Recent successful signal on Copper:
Copper VS Baltic Dry IndexAlthough I have not located the specific index, I have compared copper with the main components of the index and in fact there is a clear relationship between the two intrument, it is closely related to the flow rate between shipments and the cooper is very simple.
Usd nok inverse weekly & Copper Copper short & Crude Oil short by Usd nok Inverse weekly fractal study . error in chart : no cg1! but hg1!
Copper Gold ratio - Yield Us Treasury 2 Years It's great discovery , the ratio copper gold anticipates Yield Us treasury 10 years and then , the difference of Yield 10y and Yield 2y anticipates bear market .....
𝗖𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $HG_F Daily. DCB into 13dma rejectionSimilar to $TNX. Looks like it wants to go lower meaning coronavirus still impacting China
Copper (HG): Strong long term Buy Signal.Copper is on a three day bullish streak since the February 3rd rebound near the 2.4800 Support. The 4H chart has already turned bullish (RSI = 54.648, ADX = 36.919, ADX = 36.919) but 1D is still bearish (RSI = 34.595, MACD = -0.070, ADX = 52.434, Highs/Lows = -0.0336) so the risk remains.
That risk is concentrated on the 1D MA200. As you see the MA200 on the 1D chart has acted as Resistance on previous occasions especially on the first rebound attempt after the last -13% fall in May 2019. If the price is rejected again (especially if a Double Top is made), then we expect a new rejection. On a different occasion (MA200 break out) we expect a new rally towards at least the 2.8800 Symmetrical Resistance (which is our Target).
There are numerous reasons that give more probabilities for a bullish break-out:
* The 1D RSI has bounced on a monthly Support level, which was last hit in July 2018. What followed last time the RSI hit 19.500 on 1D was a strong rally towards the 2.8800 Symmetrical Resistance, which is our Target.
* The current rebound is practically a Double Bottom as it was made near the 2.4800 Low of September 3rd, 2019.
* Last time Copper made a Double Bottom was on January 3rd 2019. The result was a bullish rally even higher than the 2.8800 Symmetrical Resistance.
Previous successful Buy Signal on Copper made last August:
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Copper may correct higher towards 2.60Copper may correct higher towards 2.60. Either the wave 4 or a larger rebound in wave B may be expected.
FCX updateNYSE:FCX
Revision to previous chart/idea. After earnings, fcx took a dump, thanks to corona virus news, copper prices dropping, and overall index weakness. Not really sure how the market will react to fed day on wed. Assuming its not too bad, i think the bullish pattern continues. FCX is on sale and could be a good long term entry. With production in Indonesia ramping up and a return to bullish copper prices we could easily hit $60 a share in a couple years.
On the other hand, if the fed disappoints and virus business continues to spook the market we might be headed to single digits (something that I have been waiting and watching for) before heading back to ATH's.
Something tells me we keep the boat afloat a while longer. Playing it day by day.
I apologize for the "busy" chart. I am still learning to chart and finding what works for me and what to pay attention to. I have another chart on investing.com that is a bit cleaner if you care to see it.
What are your thoughts?
100 day X 200 day - Doc caught something nasty..copper caught the virus.. maybe the 100 day 200 day crossover will help to get off the floor? Has good history of inspiring strength. Just what the doctor ordered?
FCX
Peso Chilean / Usd Dollar & Copper Chile is the largest copper producer in the world, the quantity it produces is double that of Canada, triple that of Russia and quadruple the United States, there is a relationship between its currency and the performance of copper , have a very strong weekly trend correlation
hmmm... A/D & price action divergence brewing in FCXsomething funny goin on. I know AD has trouble with gaps. but... Somebody sneakin away with a bunch of shares here on the cheap?
And WOW yesterday .. had expected the shake.. but, dang .made me wonder .. still am ? whats next?
LETS SEE 15!
Copper moving to 2.96?2.836 level in #copper has acted as support/resistance since Dec. Recent top at 2.885 was the 161.8 Fib extension from the secondary high in Dec.
Price now coiling into desc. triangle which should resolve in direction of the trend. Breakout would set up run to 2.96 $HG_F #COPX
Copper MinerNice bull volume on the recent rise in share price, suggesting to greater upside. Keeping the analysis simple.
Increased bull volume
Decrease bear volume on pullback following upside move
Fib ratios align with recent levels of resistance, now to be validated as support
RSI suggests a near term cool off, potentially right into the entry targets of target 1.05 - 1.09 correlating with key fib ratios
Behind the scenes I have completed my due diligence on this copper miner.
Copper: First Corrective Wave TargetIn "Copper Tempest" (see related ideas), I analyzed the macro-view on Copper. Now it's time to act.
My trade starts from 2.8462 with final target of 2.8125 (end of first corrective wave). Stop Loss set at 2.8537.
Disclosure: My ideas contain statements and projections based on assumptions on capital markets, and therefore inherently subject to numerous risks and uncertainties.
Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion or consult a financial advisor. Investing includes risks, including loss of principal.
I am not a financial advisor.
Copper Tempest: The Bear before the BullIf you like this idea, don't forget to hit the Like Button and to Follow Me!
Exciting days for Copper. The brown metal reached the $2.8575 level. I'm confident that copper price will rise in the long run if copper demand, especially for China (largest copper consumer), will continue to record highs (527,000 tons in December 2019).
However, we still live on planet earth, and we need to make a deal with technical analysis. I believe Copper has terminated an Elliot wave impulse, with wave 5 hitting today's high ($2.8575). I will expect in the next days the A, B, and C corrective waves.
This theory is enforced by Volume Profile analysis (performed on Elliot Impulse Range) that shows POC support at $2.6436, and an exciting volume development around $2.7947. I expect corrective wave C to touch this support to bounce back for a new impulse wave 1 (If the market will let it).
Stochastic still confirm this analysis. The indicator showed no reversal for this cycle, and it is approximating the overbought area, by the way, again with a bullish setting.
Disclosure: My ideas contain statements and projections based on assumptions on capital markets, and therefore inherently subject to numerous risks and uncertainties.
Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion or consult a financial advisor. Investing includes risks, including loss of principal.
I am not a financial advisor.
FCX longShort update.
Please reference my first FCX chart for my initial thoughts.
The current rally is sitting roughly at 78.6% retracement of the prior move from April 16th of 2019. As you can see we paused a little bit and consolidated after the initial move up from $8.30 (which also resulted in a pause/sideways movement). I'm looking for AT LEAST a movement to the 100% retracement at 14.51 which is currently serving as resistance from Aug-Sept double top. This level also lines up with the 2.272, 2.414, and 2.618 fib cluster extension of the prior swing high-low.
I'm looking for a small retracement of the last (second red line) movement. As you can see this movement already flagged a bit and after todays late day pump im expecting a little relief before wednesdays announcement of china trade deal.
Assuming things go okay with the signing and whatnot, I think we will at least see the 1.272 or 1.618 extension by spring/summer.
One thing to keep in mind is that FCX earnings are on Jan 23rd. Im expecting a small beat or miss. I need to refresh my memory but the prior earnings were a miss or barely beat but the FCX continued upwards on china talks and futures pumping. Earnings are turning around and production is ramping up with the opening of new deep mine in Indonesia.
What are your thoughts?
Copper (XCUUSD): Catching Bearish Wave
hey traders,
I really like copper chart :)
from a technical perspective, we have a very nice conjunction of multiple selling signals.
first of all, on a daily the market is currently standing on a strong structure resistance.
moreover, after a strong bullish rally, the market has perfectly stoped on the underlined level with rsi showing clear divergence.
in addition to that, on a daily we see a completed bearish abcd pattern.
The last thing to short the market is the confirmation on a lower timeframe!
on 4H I am focused on a bearish flag formation.
bearish breakout of it will be a perfect signal to short the market.
the initial target will be 2.75
the second target will be 2.71
stop will be above the highest point within the flag.
Copper: Complete Trading Plan | H&S vs Channel UpCopper (XCUUSD) has been trading inside a 1W Channel Up (RSI = 59.467, MACD = 0.018, ADX = 36.505, Highs/Lows = 0.0586) which touched the Higher High trend line at the end of December. Right now the price is pulling back towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend line) to price a Higher Low.
As long as 2.8500 holds, which is the 1M Symmetrical Resistance, then the Channel Up will most likely price that Higher Low just below the 1D MA50 at 2.7000. With Copper trading on a Head and Shoulders since July 2018, if the Channel Up Higher Low trend line breaks, there are greater chances to re-test the neckline's Support within 2.5500 - 2.5270.
On the other hand, if the 2.8500 Symmetrical Resistance breaks, then that long term Head and Shoulders pattern gets invalidated and we will focus purely on the 1D Channel Up which should set eyes on the 2.9900 Resistance of the Head. In that case (if 2.8500 breaks) we will be switching to a buy with 2.9500 as the Target.
*Note at this point that the (otherwise bullish) Golden Cross formation on the 1D chart has been a bearish signal on the last 2 occasions for Copper since June 2018. On December 27th, 2019 we just formed a new Golden Cross.
See how the Head and Shoulders has provided an excellent buy signal last August:
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Long-Term Prospects of CopperCopper, symbol, HG, price action is giving us an early warning of a Bear Market with price trading above the 50 week ema, which is below both the 200 and 800 week emas, with the 200 still above the 800. Price is currently above the 9/13/30/50 week emas, so it currently is in a rally, but the long term emas are mostly flat, telling us we are in a accumulation/distribution phase. The long term candle sticks tell us to have caution here, with long upper whicks and the dark cloud for this week. Elliott Wave tells us we should be expecting the end of this year and a half long triangle with the e-wave putting in a top.
On the even longer-term perspective, this market is clearly targeting 1.4, where I expect a multi-year bounce. The bounce will proceed prices below 1.25, so let that sink in. Put that out of your mind for Today though, the thing you should be noticing here is how price is drawn to the equilibrium point of prior consolidations. That gives us a good idea of where price will be drawn to as this correction continues.
The Commodity is in a Bear Market Rally with price trading above the 50 day ema, though the 50 is above the 200, yet still below the 800 day emas. The 50 day ema is currently up trending, though price just dropped down through the 13 ema and tested the 30 ema. We’ve had three pushes up from the (d) – wave low and it looks like at peak formation for the (e) – wave is starting to form. Would expect to see a rally back up to 2.84 next week along with a stop hunt high before a strong sell-off gets under way.
The Commodity is in a Correction of a Bull Market on the 4 hour, with price below the 50 ema, which is above the 200 ema, which is above the 800 ema. Price traded down to just above the 200 ema this week, will probably give it another test early next week before aggressively bouncing back up to the highs in order to finish out the peak formation later in the week.
This is my Copper look ahead for my own trading purposes. COMMODITIES trading involves risk. Feel free to comment, but trade off of this post at your own peril.
This is my Copper look ahead for my own trading purposes. COMMODITIES trading involves risk. Feel free to comment, but trade off of this post at your own peril.
