Copper: +7% bullish potential.Copper is on a standard 1D bearish sequence (RSI = 39.990, MACD = -0.034, Highs/Lows = -0.0234) that has just (marginally) crossed the 2.74170 Support. With the RSI however approaching the 32.800 mark, a bullish reversal alert is triggered as the last 4 times that the price bounced near or just below this mark, Copper gained +7 to +8%. Assuming that happens now we are looking at a 2.9000 target. If it takes place lower (-3.85% lower by the previous occurrence), we expect 2.80000.
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Copper Futures HG1!
XAUUSD being led by XCUUSD by 13 daysThere is no reason why an inverted Copper chart should look like the Gold chart, but leading by 13 days (April 21=now). But it does look like it. I have bought at market (1290) for 1335 with a tight 1280 stop. RR 4.5:1.
Very small size, as I have no other. evidence.
Green Shoots, Bronze RootsCopper prices are beginning to break down as a confluence of indicators support further decline. Within Monday's weekly note to subscribers, to wit:
But, there is a divergence between the Chinese "green" shoots and the commodity complex. Especially, if you look at mining and base metals, they do not confirm the rally in Chinese manufacturing.
Copper is continuing to consolidate - not confirming the China bump. In fact, a continuing decline in the global trade data will begin to weigh on sentiment.
Admittedly early, we still see the CNYUSD as the primary catalyst for copper going forward. If the yuan begin to weaken, copper will retest the 2016 "global synchronized recovery" uptrend at 2.62.
If we look at copper and the Chinese 10-year yield, the duo trend very well with the 20-month correlation strong:
As markets look for green shoots out of China, the 10-year yield has rallied steadfastly; but, if markets begin to doubt China's recovery, we could see yields recouple.
Currently, copper has tagged the TACVOL range bottom. Unless factors begin to change, we'd be sellers of rallies.
Copper Buy & SellCopper is currently a sell but not long before buyers come back in. My labelled zones are only a rough idea of where i think the market may touch before turning around. Decide on your own Entry & Exit. If you do decide to enter a sell from this point, then i would put a SL around 10pips about zone A because market can always go back up to A again before coming back down to B.
DISCLAIMER
Please note that this chart is an opinion based chart only. Please trade at your own risk
Is EURUSD a leading indicator for Copper?Based on their correlation since 2002 we can say that EURUSD is a leading indicator for Copper. Especially since 2010, they both trade within a 1M Channel Down, with EURUSD however respecting the Lower Highs/ Lower Lows more. So with EURUSD on a long term bearish trend towards the 1.0358 support, we expect 2.000 long term for Copper. Technically Copper's 1M is on a pivotal point, being neutral overall (RSI = 53.441, Williams = -49.469, CCI = 9.9212, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) so expect the break lower to take place soon.
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Copper: Buy opportunity on the 1D Higher Low.The price is trading on a 1D Channel Up (RSI @ 61.767, MACD @ 0.035), which has made this week a Higher Low (Highs/Lows @ 0.0000). The next Higher High is expected on a +8% rise but we are taking a more conservative target. TP = 3.03455.
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Copper: How far will it fall?I have two ideas in mind, bounce at 2.84 ....or bounce at 2.74 (for the optimist bear (me!))
I hope my thinking is clear from the graph (ignore the memelines from earlier, i usually don't publish).
In conclusion, i see a solid trend brake and no support in sight
Please share your thoughts with me so i can improve :D
I have moved my stop loss for my short to 2.88, and i began at 2.9 if anyone cares.
WARNING: I am not very experienced
Copper in RiseIt is not new that this year 2019 with the rumors and the suspension of tariffs added to it the good perspectives on a possible agreement between China and the United States. pushed the red metal ( copper ) ,but approaching a great ressitencia, follow the good forecasts is not unreasonable the price continues to climb positions, but all this will be seen soon.
Copper (HG1!) - Aiming for 618 Fib (18% move from January bottomFundamentals:
No major supply disruptions occurred in 2018 and most labour negotiations have been agreed. However, overall growth has been negatively affected by lower output at some mines in Canada and operational problems in China, Peru and the United States. As a consequence the ICSG growth forecast for mine production was revised down to 2% compared with the previous forecast of 2.9% made in April 2018. knowing this growth in 2019 world mine production, adjusted for disruptions, is predicted to be around 1.2% and is expected to be impacted by a sharp decline in Indonesian output.
Copper also tends to more sensitive to inflation and moves correlated. Inflation base case is mild inflation which should support copper prices.
Technicals:
Copper had a double top formation in 2018. First peak hitting in January 2018 and second in June. From there the commodity dropped nearly 25% from a high of $3.30 to a bottom in Aug 2018 at $2.50. The metal climbed to its 38.2% Fib extension before trading down for a double bottom technical bounce in Jan 19'.
Indicators:
Stochastic: Overbought
RSI: 69. Near overbought
ADX: 23. Bull trend confirmation intact.
Copper Bulls have the technicals, momentum and industry production support for a continued bull run in all of 2019. We expect prices to test in 2019 the 618 Fib, which would be a 18% bounce from the January bottom this year at a target price of $3.01.