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Thoughts on CopperBullish on copper with the current confluence of news - Goldman called copper the new oil due to its links to the green energy sector and gave a very bullish price forecast citing a potential future shortage due to "demand increasing 900% by 2030" Coinciding with this was the mining strike in Chile - first the rumblings of a strike then the actual strike itself. Chile produces roughly 25% of the World's Copper. Currently we are in a bullish channel on the daily chart and I expect we could see a bounce off the upper trendline, especially if positive news from Chile breaks at the same time as the price reaching this area.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by CptCalamity
Copper Heads for the Highs A late February peak runs out of steam and makes a comeback LME and COMEX stocks rise Inventories can be a mirage Goldman Sachs makes a bullish call- Three reasons for higher copper prices Heading for new high- Copper could go parabolic In March 2020, nearby COMEX copper futures traded to the lowest price since June 2016, when it reached a bottom at $2.0595 per pound. In February 2021, the price traded at a decade high at $4.3630 on the continuous contract. Copper fell during the height of the global pandemic’s impact on markets across all asset classes. The price moved from a four-year low to a ten-year high in a little less than one year. The trend in copper is higher, and we could be on the verge of a move to prices above the 2011 $4.6495 peak. Copper is a building block of infrastructure worldwide, but it is also a metal with many industrial applications. A late February peak runs out of steam and makes a comeback The trend of higher lows and higher highs in the copper futures market remained intact at the end of last week. After reached a continuous contract peak at $4.3630 in late February, the highest price in a decade, copper pulled back below the $4 level, reaching $3.8760 in early March. Since then, the price has been climbing and was back above the $4.33 level at the end of last week. Open interest, the total number of open long and short positions in the COMEX copper market moved from a low of under 162,000 contracts in May 2020 when copper’s price was under $2.40 per pound to the 247,572 level at the end of last week with May copper futures settling at $4.3360. Rising price and increasing open interest is a technical validation of a bullish trend in a futures market. Weekly price momentum and relative strength indicators were well above neutral readings and rising. Weekly historical volatility at 18.76% indicates the bullish trend is slow and steady. The metric reached a high of over 37% in May 2020. Copper backed off from the February decade-high peak, but the price came storming back and is now a stone’s throw away from an even higher high. The semiannual chart shows dating back to 1988 illustrates the all-time high came in 2011 at $4.6495, only 31.35 cents above the closing price on April 23. Heading for new high- Copper could go parabolic Copper was below the 2011 high on Friday, April 23. The LME price was under $10,000 per ton. Goldman Sachs’ forecast is for $11,000 per ton in the next twelve months. However, as “copper is the new oil,” the longer-term price expectations are far higher as they see demand rising much faster than supplies. Goldman sees copper at $14,000 per ton in 2024 and $15,000 per ton in 2025, over 50% higher than the current price approaching the 2011 high. Bear markets often take prices far below where logic dictates. If you have any doubt, look at an oil chart from April 20, 2020, when NYMEX futures fell to the negative $40.32 per barrel level during a tidal wave of selling. Bull markets have a habit of moving to levels that are far higher than analysts expect when a buying frenzy creates parabolic moves. Lumber was at $251.51 per 1,000 board feet in April 2020 and moved nearly five and one-half times higher at the recent $1374.70 level. Copper is not the only commodity rallying these days. Grain prices experienced explosive gains last week. Palladium, a thinly traded precious metal, rose to a new record high at $2928 per ounce last Friday. Copper has bullish winds behind its sails from a fundamental and technical perspective. The red metal looks set to climb to new heights as the copper bull market appears firmly intact. When markets trend, picking a top can be a tragic mistake. Sit back and enjoy the ride, even though it could become bumpy. The risk of corrections rises with prices in bull markets. Read the full article using the link below. Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by Andy_Hecht
16
COPPER (XCU/USD) – Week 17 – New top expected.Last week, the Copper price increased and broke the resistance, despite our analysis in which we anticipated the price will drop from that level. In the coming days, we anticipate that we will break the top and then go in a “stop hunt” phase that can push the price down towards the support area. Trade with care. Best regards, Financial Flagship Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
OANDA:XCUUSDShort
by financialflagship
14
COPPER Buy SignalPattern: Fibonacci Channel on 1D. Signal: Buy as the price rebounded on the 1D MA50. Target: The 1.5 Fibonacci extension level (low-risk) or the 2.0 Fibonacci level (high-risk). Previous COPPER signal: ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> kylevd23 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMEX:HG1!Long
by TradingShot
2
COPPER (XCU/USD) – Week 15 – Expecting the price to drop.Last week, Copper continued to lack volatility and moved sideways the whole week. In the coming days, we expect the price to start falling and finish this complex correction, reaching the liquidity pool area that we highlighted on the chart. Trade with care. Best regards, Financial Flagship Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
OANDA:XCUUSDShort
by financialflagship
22
COPPER - DUE FOR A MAJOR CORRECTION?Looks like copper finally reached the top of the 5 wave impulse. We also saw an extended 5th subwave as the very last wave in the 5th wave which is typical in the commodity market. Also RSI didn't create a divergence but that is because of the extended 5th wave. We should see copper come down atleast 25-30% of it's value as a correction from the huge run it made that started early 2020. This isn't a "crash", this is just a healthy pullback before the next wave up in the future. I'm not planning on shorting it, but I did take profits on my long positions. I will look to re enter when it is done correcting.
COMEX:HG1!Short
by CathartesCapital
June 2021 - Copper 05/03 - Rebounce Sharply1. Fundamental Analysis - After Chile's announcement about rising copper output, Congo increased production of copper and cobalt. - Besides, US Treasury yield climbed higher, it directly made US Dollar stronger than currency peer. Therefore, this triggered a wave of sell-off from equities to commodities by funds. - However, news comes from China that they are targeting GDP growth (at over 6%) are quite impressive. In med tern i think Copper is still good. But near-term, long liquidation remains in place. 2. Technical Analysis. After forming the first wave down in daily timeframe (or three waves ABC in H1). I think, Copper will rebounce sharply with three waves up as i draw in my pic. Of course, we ne to watch close when prices likely break the downtrend in H1 timeframe.
COMEX:HGK2021
by commoditybulletin
May 2021 Copper - Corrective PatternUpdated: Corrective Pattern. 1. Fundamental Analysis - Lack of news comes from China, which represents physical demand. - Waiting for news from non-china (i.e USA: readings from initial claims, unemployment rate...), which show the extent each country are recovering after pandemic. 2. Technical Analysis - Daily: Copper remains corrective pattern in daily timeframe . And it moves as Wave A-B-C as paragraph. - In H1: I predict that Wave B are forming, and it can reach to 4.24 - 4.30. Keep in mind that: 4.24 is resistance zone .
COMEX:HGK2021
by commoditybulletin
June 2021 - Copper (03/03/2021)Fluctuating in wide range (4.04 - 4.37) 1. Fundamental Analysis - Waiting for readings about U.S. factory orders, initial jobless claims and durable goods orders. - Despite Caixin PMI services and indutries were not gud as expected. But, Lots of people remains optimistic. - Sentiments about this market are seemingly improvement, even Chile annouced their production increased. 2. Technical Analysis - Daily, Supporting level: 4.04. - H4, price are fluctuating in a sideway. I expect that Copper need to accumulate, and then climb to former peak. (Around 4.30)
COMEX:HGK2021
by commoditybulletin
1
June 2021 - CopperCopper - Correction Ahead 1. Fundamental Analysis - US Housing Data was quite disappointing. - Equity market decline & the fear of rising US interest rates. - In addition, I think copper market is waiting for news which comes from US ( US government's plan for boosting produce electric vehicles) and China (confirmation about speculative buying and demand through readings of Shanghai copper warehouse stocks). 2. Technical Analysis - This market seems overbought, and there's a sign that people are taking profit. - Currently, i think copper contracts are moving in a range | sideway (4.08 - 4.37). - Intraday, prices can climb higher and reach a zone (4.30 - 4.33). It could be a good opportunity for sell to probe the strength of the market)
COMEX:HGK2021
by commoditybulletin
2
Copper. Triangle. Breakdown. Timeframe 1 month. Monopolization.Copper. Timeframe 1 month. A huge triangle has formed. Breakdown of the resistance of this formation. Notice how before the price rise they made a beautiful false breakdown. For strong growth, like the last time, it would be good if there was a rollback to the zone of the broken resistance of this formation. Complete development of the goal of the symmetrical triangle 13.23. The minimum goal is 10.1. Implementation until 2023 05 (this is relative time). But this is provided that the price does not fall below the mirror resistance level during a rollback (now it is already acting as a support). Also now there is a complete monopolization by playing with patents. All small participants in the prey will not survive. This patent game is what sparked this growth. Think what could happen in the world that would increase the demand for metal so much. Although even today negative dynamics is noted in the extractive sector. Alternatively, demand may remain as it is now or even less, but production due to certain events (not a "virus") may greatly decrease, which will provoke a very strong rise in prices (this applies to all minerals).
COMEX:HG1!
by SpartaBTC
9
Gundlach ratio suggests 10 Year Yields will continue to climb. The Gundlach ratio tracks the ratio of copper prices to gold as an indicator of future US 10 Year Yields. Gundlach believes in the predictive value of the ratio since copper is sensitive to swings in the economy, while gold climbs when investors get frightened. You can see the correlation with the US 10 Year Yield rate is around at least 95% most of the time, although the correlation does loose connection, but then returns. Copper has been on a tear (especially since the Chinese returned from their Lunar Holiday) hitting a most recent high of 4.18 per lb, while Gold has dropped below $1800, bottoming at 1760 at the prospect on real yields becoming positive. This has increased the Gundlach ratio and you can see how US10Y rates have also been driven higher. With copper forecast to go even higher and Gold's future potentially a little less certain (especially as funds are diverted to Bitcoin) this bodes well for future higher 10 year rates.
COMEX:HG1!
by majicktrader
2