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ridethepig | Copper Quarterly Update (via Supply Side Shortages)📍 Changing Directions... Let us first look at the previous charts for the flows we were tracking in the typical Copper flows inside a crisis: a) Confirming the correction, which is set from an abc retrace b) Momentum is in play here In the lows at 2.1 - 2.3 the clear move was loading on the lows. This was followed by an immediate slingshot out as smart money outguessed the shortages coming on the supply side. First to go as confirmed at the weekend, Chile, Covid has hit mines hard and most are back to 60% capacity AT BEST!! Chile is now a virus hot spot... it is sadly only going to end in one way. The slingshot carried out here is going to be effective at taking out the highs - a commodity shortage is a prelude to the monetary crisis which is cooked for year-end. Those V shapers have clearly not checked the most important chart that ironically begins with a V... VIX above 30 does not imply everything is fine... Thanks as usual for all those keeping the feedback coming in the comments... 👍 or 👎
COMEX:HG1!Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | A game changer break in play for Copper/Gold ratio We can experiment with the opening here in the copper/gold ratio as commodity shortages begin to make the rounds as widely expected. 📌 Probably the most sensible response is to prepare for a slingshot into Copper with reversed flows in and out of Gold. Shortages/ It seems to be an inflection point at an early stage in the crisis. I would have preferred here to have seen the commodity shortages be avoided as more civil unrest will always follow. In a situation where monetary stimulus cannot solve a health crisis and no longer has the possibility at its disposal. We can conduct a whole new round of charts for commodities and look to play the currency exchange legs accordingly. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
COMEX:HG1!Long
by ridethepig
4
I won't short this if I were youRationale is simple. The longer term trend is bullish and the 1H chart shows a temporary correction. Yes, if you short, you might get lucky and win some pips profits but that also means you have to be fast with your fingers. Some may be fast to get in but late to get out, turning profits into losses. Not worth it. Some are late to get in (FOMO) and early to get out , also resulting in losses from cognitive dissonance. The smarter or conservative method is just wait. Wait at the 2.577 coast line to see if it rebounds (watch for bullish signs) before you initiate long position. The fact that it is riding on a bullish trend means it can rebound much faster than you think and the risk/reward ratio may not be worthwhile to take a short position, in my opinion. There are many lower hanging fruits opportunities and that is the job of a trader, identify it and trade it. It is easy to become complacent and not do the homework and assuming market will go your way. That is gambling based on luck and usually that is the first sign of trader falling off the cliff. Avoid this trap at all costs !
COMEX:HG1!Long
by dchua1969
Copper - Macro OutlookWelcome to my series of macro outlooks where I put together threads focused on long term perspectives for major asset classes. My goal is to provide you with a long term view that I update on a monthly and sometimes weekly basis so that you can have the means to make wise and calculated trades in the shorter term. I have threads for assets that are typically viewed by investors and traders as market leaders. Having an idea where the market leaders are heading will give you a compass to make decisions in smaller cap assets that tend to follow. I will do my best to keep these threads purely technical in nature. Doctor Copper Copper is a vital commodity to the economic machine. One use that comes to mind is in commercial and residential building wiring. An increase in price signals a strengthening in demand and the underlying economic activity. A decrease in price may signal a contracting economy. Keep an eye of the price of copper to see where economic activity is headed. Enjoy!
COMEX:HG1!
by micahjmiller