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Copper (HG1!) - Ideahey guys, Yearly inside Bar - possible continuation of uptrend. 4.6400 is THE level to break on a Yearly close. Quarterly: Bearish Candles with a long wick. --> Setup is Bearish Monthly: A shooting star with a bearish Engulfing Candle. Stochastics Bearish -> at a yearly Key Level. This confirms the Quarterly Bearish Bias … Bearish Setup: Sell at a valid Resistance level with a goal to retest the 4.000 and 3.5400 area. Note: This bearish Setup will be invalid with a close above 4.4600 on the Monthly Chart. Thanks for reading
COMEX:HG1!Short
by MeruEU
Copper's Short-Term Demand Woes, Long-Term GapsCopper is known as the electrifying metal. Copper's warm glow and durable spirit, copper wires the heart of many a machine. This reddish rarity has been super bullish in the recent past but less so now. That doesn't make it less investable. Just that nuanced investing approach is called for. Outlook for copper has become mixed once more, with near term demand remaining downbeat given the continued slowdown in the Chinese property market and buildup in copper stock at SHFE. In the longer term, supply challenges risk pushing copper into a supply deficit with major copper miners Codelco and Anglo American facing supply challenges. Given the mixed outlook, copper has continued to trade in a tighter price range over the past two months. Counter to conventional wisdom, a sideways market also presents opportunities for savvy investors. This paper describes the diverging outlook for the red metal and how investors can deploy a calendar spread using CME Micro Copper futures amid the diverging short and long-term outlook. CHINESE COPPER INVENTORIES BUILD UP BECAUSE OF DEMAND SLOWDOWN Chinese copper inventories have surged to one of their highest historical levels. Furthermore, inventories have been rising during the part of the year associated with drawdowns. Source – Bloomberg Lower demand is one of the factors behind the increasing inventories. The Chinese real estate sector is a major consumer of copper. With the ongoing slowdown in the sector, copper demand has been hit hard. Moreover, manufacturing sector in China is also experiencing a slowdown as China’s official manufacturing PMI dipped back into contraction in May. Source: TradingEconomics Combination of property market slowdown and lower industrial activity is hindering copper demand in the near term. Furthermore, refined copper production among Chinese copper smelters has remained near all-time high levels over the past few months. Source: Bloomberg BULLISH SUPPLY SIDE AND INDUSTRIAL RECOVERY POSE UPSIDE TO COPPER While near-term demand outlook may be downbeat, the medium- and long-term outlook for copper remain bullish. In the medium term, higher demand from the rapidly growing PV (photovoltaic) manufacturing and EV industry are absorbing some of the higher copper supply. While both industries have slowed in recent months, analysts expect them to recover. At their current pace of copper consumption, these industries are more than compensating for the slowdown in the property market. Source: Reuters Additionally, major copper miners, Codelco and Anglo American are dealing with lower production. Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, reported a 9.4% decline in production in the latest quarter compared to the previous year. This decline is attributed to falling ore grades, water restrictions, union protests, and logistical challenges exacerbated by the global situation, including the pandemic and geopolitical tensions. Anglo American also announced plans to reduce its copper production in 2024 as part of a strategy to cut costs and adapt to market conditions. Lower output from major copper miners is a cause for concern given the rapid pace at which the new energy industries such as EVs and PVs are growing as well as the rapid growth in data centers which require substantial amount of copper. With inadequate supply, copper supplies face the risk of being pushed into a deficit. ASSET MANAGERS HAVE REVERSED VIEW ON COPPER BULLISHNESS While asset managers had built up substantial long positions during the sharp rally in copper which took price to an all-time high, they have started to close some of those long positions indicating that in the near-term price may have run ahead of themselves. Source: CME QuikStrike Over the past week, September CME options have seen a buildup in puts while calls have declined. The November contract has seen a similar trend. However, the March 2025 contract has seen a surge in call OI. Source: CME QuikStrike In a similar vein, CME copper future’s term structure has shifted from a steep contango to backwardation over the last three months. However, over the past week, this has started to shift once more as premium of later contracts over front month has started to rise leading to a steepening term structure. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Given the diverging outlook for copper in the near-term and later term, investors can express a view on the shift in term structure using a calendar spread consisting of CME Micro Copper futures. The below hypothetical trade setup consists of a long position in Micro Copper futures expiring in March 2025 (MHGH2025) and a short position in Micro Copper futures expiring in August 2024 (MHGQ2024). Investors can also deploy the same trade setup using CME full-size copper futures. The CME full-size copper futures also provide a margin offset for the trade, a calendar spread with the same contract can be deployed with maintenance margin of USD 2,500 as of 24/June. The below hypothetical trade setup provides a reward to risk ratio of 1.43x. Entry: 1.011 Target: 1.055 Stop Loss: 0.98 Profit at Target: USD 492 Loss at Stop: USD 342 Reward to Risk: 1.43x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
COMEX:HGH2025Long
by mintdotfinance
COPPER Going well according to our long-term plan.Last time we looked at Copper (HG1!), we established our long-term strategy (April 19, see chart below), which involves a new Bull Cycle, through a Channel Up pattern similar to 2020 - 2021: So far the plan goes flawlessly, as the price hit the top of the (green) Channel Up and is now pulling back. The 1W MA50 is about to complete a Golden Cross with the 1W MA200, the first one since January 11 2021! On the shorter term (current chart on 1D) the price is approaching the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the short-term Support but as with last time, we expect it to marginally break before Copper bottoms and makes a new Higher Low on the long-term Channel Up. To those who missed an early buy, we recommend entering once the 1D RSI hits its Support Zone. Our medium-term Target is 5.200 (Resistance 1). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
COMEX:HG1!Long
by TradingShot
Copper: The Next Big Boom - Prices Could Skyrocket to $40,000Hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand predicts that copper prices could surge to $40,000 per tonne in the coming years due to soaring demand. Currently priced at around $11,000 per tonne, copper has already seen a 20% increase this year. The demand is driven by the electrification of various sectors, including electric vehicles, renewable energy sources, military uses, and data centers. Andurand, who manages approximately $2 billion in assets at Andurand Capital, forecasts this dramatic rise based on the doubling of demand growth for copper. He acknowledges that although a supply response is expected, it will take more than five years to materialize. This sentiment is echoed by former Goldman Sachs executive Jeff Currie, who also predicts significant price increases, albeit to a more conservative $15,000 per tonne. The transport sector's copper demand is projected to grow over 11 times by 2050, with electric vehicles alone requiring substantial amounts of copper wiring. Additionally, the expansion of the global electricity grid will necessitate a 4.8-fold increase in copper demand by 2050. The copper supply gap is projected to reach 10 million tonnes by 2030, as per BloombergNEF estimates. Despite not being widely known in the US, Andurand has a solid track record in commodities trading, with his funds experiencing an 83% increase in value this year. The rising copper prices reflect broader trends in the metals market, driven by strong demand and historically low inventories. Significant growth in copper demand is also anticipated from developing countries, particularly China, India, and Indonesia, which are experiencing exponential increases in consumption.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by signalmastermind
🔥Copper Price Surges as It Breaks the Trendline🔥Copper prices have risen in recent days, supported by a number of positive factors. A weakening US dollar against other major currencies has made copper more attractive to foreign investors. In addition, the market received positive news from Chile, the world's largest copper producer. Chilean President Gabriel Boric predicted that output from state-owned miner Codelco would grow slowly this year. However, analysts remain optimistic about copper prices due to expected demand growth in sectors such as electric vehicles, electric infrastructure, AI and automation. Trafigura, a large commodity trading firm, forecasts that copper demand will grow steadily in the coming years. This forecast is supported by the increasing investment in renewable energy and electric vehicle projects, which use more copper than traditional vehicles. Today, according to our assessment, the price of the currency continues to rise as it approaches the support area. Trading recommendation SELL LMT CPEN24: Entry: 4.5060 STP: 4.4630 TP: 4.6390
COMEX:HGN2024Long
by MXV_AnfinTrading
COPPER New Bull Cycle confirmed. 6.7600 possible.Copper (HG1!) has emphatically broken above the last Resistance of the 2-year Bear Cycle as it smashed through the top of the long-term Triangle pattern. The same pattern kept Copper on a Bear Cycle up until June 2020 when it started the remarkable rally to the 5.000 High (1.786 Fibonacci extension). As you can see on both fractals, the formation of a Death Cross on the 1W time-frame signaled the bottom (Feb-March 2020 is the COVID crash exception, if that hadn't happened, the Triangle could have even broken upwards earlier). Our minimum Target on the emerging (green) Channel Up is 6.7600 (Fibonacci 1.618 extension). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
COMEX:HG1!Long
by TradingShot
1
HG | Copper Futures | Short - SELLWaiting for rejection off the liquidity zone. Selling only after the break below the HMA and the retest of the liquidity zone. The break below the HMA has already happened. In the area of the retest of the liquidity zone at the moment. Looking to sell from that zone. Trading this off a higher timeframe as this is a 3 week swing at the least **This is just my trading thought process and does not constitute as financial advice. **Please trade with proper risk management*
COMEX:HG1!Short
by MOGBEBOR
1
Copper Prices on the Rise - Do Your Research Before You T Copper prices have recently reached a 14-month high, driven in part by China's economic improvement. This could be a potential trading opportunity, but it's important to be well-informed before making any decisions. Copper is a key economic indicator, and its demand is expected to rise. However, the market can be volatile. Here are some resources to help you make informed decisions: • Copper price charts and analysis • Information on copper trading risks Remember, successful trading requires research, understanding your risk tolerance, and aligning your strategy with your goals
AMEX:COPXLong
by bryandowningqln