Hg1
TECHNICALS | Copper's Up-Trend BrokenWhilst diagonal trendlines are geometrically certain to break, they are also rather difficult to trade, looking very obvious ex-post, but hard to pull the trigger on ex-ante. In this case, I am inclined to take the signal given I have traded the vicissitudes of Copper quite well, particularly in the past 6 months.
High Grade Copper (HG) prices seen higher in the coming monthsThere has been little change, with High Grade Copper prices balanced around USD2.7000, confluent with the 233-month weighted MA and the (50%) Fibonacci retracement of the 2014-2016 fall.
However, the underlying bullish tone is intact, as momentum studies and the positive Tension Indicator, (not shown), continue to strengthen, with clearance of here and the USD2.7220 year high of November 2016 looked for.
This will confirm continuation of the January 2016 rally and open up congestion around USD2.8000. Beyond here is the USD2.8555, (61.8%) Fibonacci retracement.
Support is raised to the USD2.4800 low of January, and extends to the USD2.4480 low of December. This area should underpin any immediate tests as investors maintain a buy-into-weakness strategy.
An unexpected break, however, will delay higher levels, and open up the USD2.3145 high of March, where fresh consolidation should then develop.
High Grade Copper poised for further gains in the coming weeksHigh Grade Copper continues to trade higher, with prices now within reach of critical resistances at the USD2.7200 retracement and USD2.7345 year high of November 2016.
However, there is risk of a short-term pullback before a clear break is seen, as daily studies become overbought.
Support is at congestion around USD2.6000, but slippage beneath here should remain limited, as background readings continue to improve and investors maintain a buy-into-weakness strategy.
A later close above USD2.7345 will confirm continuation of the broad 2016 rally, and open up congestion around USD2.8000 as investors adopt an outright bullish stance.
Still higher is the USD2.8700, (61.8%) retracement of the 2014-2016 fall.
HG Copper expected to extend gains in the coming monthsThe bounce from the January trendline has accelerated sharply higher, with fresh demand at USD2.2000 pushing prices above critical resistance at the USD2.3235 high of March.
Fibonacci resistance at the USD2.6805, (50%) retracement of the 2014-2016 fall has been reached, with potential for still further strength in the coming months towards congestion around USD2.8000 as background studies also improve and investors adopt an outright bullish stance. Beyond here is the USD2.8560, (61.8%) retracement.
Setbacks are expected to stabilise above USD2.3235, as investors maintain a buy-into-weakness strategy, but if broken, focus will turn back to USD2.2000 as sentiment turns cautious once again.
AUDCAD Nov'16 - LongAfter the break above the 2014 high around 1.035 the chart lines up more with expectations.
AUD Bullish copper (see "All that glitters") and AUDUSD
CAD With NAFTA potentially changing up with Trump in power
Won't look to enter unless we get sub 0.975... will be a while but i'm patient