Copper Prices at Risk as Inverse Cup and Handle Takes Shape Copper prices are at risk of moving lower as an inverted handle takes shape following an inverted cup. The Inverse Cup and Handle pattern is an inherently bearish formation. A break below handle support would threaten the 3 psychological level.
Hg1
Copper Futures ( HG1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish MomentumType: Bullish Momentum
Resistance: 3.5460
Pivot: 3.4400
Support: 3.3850
Preferred Case: The price is crossing the ichimoku cloud, if the price can break the cloud successfully, we can expect the price rise to the 1st resistance at 3.5460, where the overlap resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are.
Alternative scenario: If bearish momentum persists, expect price to continue falling towards the first support level at 3.3850, where the previous swing low is.
Fundamentals: There is no major news.
Copper Futures ( HG1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish MomentumTitle: Copper Futures ( HG1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Momentum
Type: Bearish Momentum
Resistance: 3.4025
Pivot: 3.3610
Support: 3.2545
Preferred Case: On H4, with the price moving below the Ichimoku cloud and descending trendline, we have a bearish bias. However, price is resting on the 1st support at 3.2545 where the larger 78.6% Fibonacci line and 127.2% Fibonacci extension line lies. Expect a possible pullback back up to the Pivot line at 3.3610 where the previous swing low lies.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price may continue the bearish momentum and break through the 1st support and head towards the 3.1335 level where the previous swing low lies.
Fundamentals: No major news
Short Term Copper 'SELLS' heading into Q4 of 2022I think it's becoming more and more clear that copper sells could extend into the last quarter of the year. Corrective wave 4 seems complete at 0.382 of the second Minor wave count and price is currently in an impulsive bear wave of a lower degree. We should therefore expect Copper prices to plunge to $2.96/lb(-15.4% decline) with some minor bullish price action to around $3.2/lb before eventually finding support at $2.7/lb, representing a -22.42% decline based on the current market price.
As indicated in the chart, this short idea comes into play ONLY WHEN Copper prices drop BELOW $3.35/lb, which is the terminus of the minuette wave 1.
Additionally, I strongly recommend you to review my long term forecast in profile.
Here is a link to my previous Copper forecast.
Disclaimer: The information provided here is only for educational purposes and should NOT be taken as investment advice.
Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop
Resistance :3.5555
Pivot: 3.4755
Support : 3.3695
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price below the ichimoku indicator and RSI is moving within a descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the pivot at 3.4755, which is in line with the overlap support to the 1st support at 3.3695, where the 61.8% fibonacci retracement and overlap support are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could rise to the 1st resistance at 3.5555, where the overlap resistance and 50% fibonacci retracement are.
Fundamentals: No Major News
Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop
Resistance :3.5565
Pivot: 3.4990
Support : 3.47325
Preferred Case: On the H4, with the Stoch is below 20, and the price is below ichimoku cloud, RSI is showing a descending trendline and Stoch is reversing from the resistance, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the pivot at 3.4990, which is in line with tyhe 50% fibonacci retracement and overlap support to the 2st support at 3.4325, which is in line with the swing low, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could rise to the 1st resistance at 3.5565, where the swing highs and 50% fibonacci retracement are.
Fundamentals: No major news.
Metals Copper idea (13/09/2022)Copper futures
The rise of the metal depends on the support point 3.3625 to achieve the metal’s decline to end the correction in wave 2. Before expecting the bullish rise again, the decline may reach 3.5345 prices or it may extend to 3.4685 before returning and rising again in wave 3
Metals Copper idea (08/09/2022)Copper futures
The rise of the metal depends on the support point 3.1315, and we expect the correction to end in wave 2. We expect the start of the rise again, but this depends on trading remaining above the support point of 3.3620, and the rise may reach 3.7130 prices or extend to 3.8915, but this depends on the support point at 3.3620 prices.
Metals Copper idea (05/09/2022)Copper futures
The rise of the metal depends on the 3.1315 support point to achieve the metal’s decline to end the correction in wave 2. before expecting the bullish rise again, and the decline may reach 3.3425 prices or it may extend to 3.2480 and may have already started to rise, but this depends on the support point at 3.3645 prices
Metals Copper idea (29/08/2022)Copper futures
The rise of the metal depends on the support point 3.1315 to achieve the bullish movement, and we expect the metal to decline to end the correction in wave 2 before completing the rise again, and the decline may reach 3.3450 prices or it may extend to 3.2510
Sell setupThe narrative: There has been a lot of talk about inflation and a china reopening but coppers recent collapse indicates something more ominous may be brewing.
The model-
Sell: 3.6525 or higher
Stop: 3.7200
The Ingenuity Trading Model is a Geometric Hidden Markov Model with specific inputs related to Price, Time, Volume , and Volatility. The model attempts to predict local minimums and maximums (reversals) on a daily and weekly basis... stay curious
Metals Copper idea (22/08/2022) Copper futures.
The rise of the metal depends on the 3.1315 support point to achieve the bullish movement, and we expect the metal to rise in the near term and also in the long term, it may rise from the current prices and the second wave has ended or the decline continues to the 61% level at prices of 3.3440 and the second wave ends there
Copper analysis: Has the bear market rally ended already?After a 37% decline from its peak of $5.03 per pound in early-March 2022, copper has risen 14% since July's lows.
However, the metal has recently been unable to overcome key resistance levels represented by the 50-day moving average and the descending channel trendline, as fresh worries about global growth slowdown and monetary policy tightening reemerged this week.
Key macro events of the week:
China, the world's largest consumer of copper, unexpectedly lowered lending rates in an effort to boost demand after reporting weaker-than-anticipated July numbers for industrial production (3.8% vs 4.6% expected), fixed asset investments (5.7% vs 6.2%), and retail sales (2.7% vs 5%).
In the United States, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index plunged to -31.3 in August of 2022, from 11.2 in July. This is the lowest reading since May of 2020, and it indicates that business activity is weakening as a result of a collapse in new orders and shipments.
Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index has fallen to its lowest level since October 2008, and the UK inflation rate has risen to double digits, the highest in 40 years, adding fuel to the fire and reigniting fears of a global recession.
Ultimately, the Minutes of the FOMC's July meeting revealed that there is still a long way to go before declaring the war on inflation won, with members indicating that adopting a more restrictive policy stance was critical to avoiding a worsening of inflation expectations. This implies that the Fed's tightening is far from over.
Copper technical analysis
A bear market rally that is nearing exhaustion can be seen on the copper daily chart. The price action this week has been unable to break above both the bearish channel and the 50-dma, the RSI has tilted to the downside, and the MACD is getting close to a bearish crossover.
A similar pattern occurred earlier this year, in the first week of June.
After a 14% rebound from May's lows, copper briefly surpassed the 50-day moving average before beginning a severe, steep decline that lasted until mid-July. The RSI and MACD indicators both showed similar patterns to what we are seeing now.
Bottom line, a copper's short-term pullback to the bearish channel's midline in the $3.2-3.3 area seems more likely, given the current technical setup. Breaking decisively the 50-dma and bearish channel resistances would invalidate the thesis and raise the odds of a $4.00 per pound test.
Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
HG1!7.28.22 I want to kill you something about price action And structure as a pertains to copper. I believe many traders who look at this won't recognize the importance of structure in this particular example, so it's important to look at this as a study around structure. The most immediate reason to look at this market is that it found support and a reversal pattern want a ranging market moving lower, and we would have been able to get into this market as a buyer when many Traders would think that the market would probably go lower... and that would have been a very expensive mistake. The market went up about 6 or $7,000 per contract at the reversal, so if money is your thing, the trade worked. and now I have exonerated myself from any further responsibility. Hopefully if anything important happens and I'm watching, I'll try to let you know. Learning a concept how to use structure for your trade decisions is the most important thing in this video in my opinion.
Copper to $10+ by 2024. Easy. ~$4.50 today is fundamentally not the same as ~$4.50 in 2011 - the last time copper traded at these prices. QE was fresh off the block in 2011. today, it is standard operating procedure and although the fed talks a good game with tapering, we have yet to see any balance sheet reduction.
Looking at this monthly chart, I noticed an interesting double bottom that hits its' target before entering price discovery between 1999-2006. the pattern is not perfect but it looks really similar to copper 2016-2022. Double bottom, target reached around $4.30, and now we're off to the races - price discovery.
I think copper to $10 in under 2 years is a very safe bet. It doesn't threaten fiat as much as gold/silver and is manipulated less as a result. It is critical in many industries and the push for everything to go IoT will continue the increasing pressure on copper as well.
Let's see how this one ages.
Copper in free fall, but ...It is well known that due to the current circumstances of multifactors of the negative order, they are causing a Global crisis, which in turn cuts the industrial demand, clearly that happened in the past and is clearly illustrated in the last crisis ( "Subprime Crisis" ).
we have clear then the "high ceilings" and the "low floors",.
although there is copper falls without stopping,
but remember that this element is essential for the industry
in future mankind in electromobility plus also of electronics in general and industrial and so on.
and that is why the deep zone would eventually be a good buying zone. ,
also the fall of this metal is closely related to the Chilean ( clp ) peso.
copperThe support index lost $3.3.
But static support is $2.96 and dynamic support is #2.
The negative divergence caused the price to fall, but now we are seeing a positive divergence as it approaches the $2.7 support.
We should wait and see if the price will be supported by this strong downward momentum or not?